Your AFL team's run home: Part 2

It’s that time of year again when, with just seven rounds remaining until the finals get underway, the focus turns to whether your team can force their way into the top eight, or whether North Melbourne can avoid the wooden spoon.

As always, this will be divided into two parts. In Part 1, I looked at the teams currently in the eight.

Here, in Part 2, I will cover the teams outside of it, with particular interest centring around whether the Kangaroos can move off the bottom of the ladder and whether Richmond can avoid their first ninth-placed finish since 2008.

Richmond
Currently ninth (seven wins, eight losses, 28 premiership points, 100.7 per cent)
Matches to play: Collingwood (MCG), Brisbane Lions (MCG), Geelong Cats (MCG), Fremantle (Optus), North Melbourne (MCG), GWS Giants (Giants), Hawthorn (MCG)

Three straight losses since their Dreamtime win over Essendon in Perth have seen Richmond drop out of the top eight, with their premiership defence now hanging in the balance.

Since then, they suffered a heartbreaking loss to the West Coast Eagles in the west, followed by disappointing losses to St Kilda and the Gold Coast Suns, managing only two goals in the former match at the MCG.

Of their seven remaining matches, five of them are at the MCG, but two of them are against the Brisbane Lions and Geelong Cats, both of whom sit in third and fifth place on the ladder respectively, in consecutive weeks.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

That follows a clash against Collingwood, in which the Tigers will start favourites, while there are also trips to Perth and Sydney, to face Fremantle and the GWS Giants respectively, on the horizon.

It is possible that, should the Tigers’ poor form continue, by the time they face the Giants in Sydney (or wherever it is played), both teams could be playing to keep their finals hopes alive.

Damien Hardwick’s side then finish their regular season against Hawthorn at the MCG, and they may require a huge win over the Hawks if they are to force their way back into the eight and keep their premiership defence alive.

Sorry Tigers fans, but I have your side finishing ninth on mere percentage.

Predicted finish: ninth.

Fremantle
Currently tenth (seven wins, eight losses, 28 premiership points, 92.2 per cent)
Matches to play: Hawthorn (UTAS), Geelong Cats (Optus), Sydney Swans (SCG), Richmond (Optus), Brisbane Lions (Optus), West Coast Eagles (Optus), St Kilda (Marvel)

Fremantle last week blew a golden opportunity to force their way into the eight following a wasteful performance against Carlton at home, losing by 16 points at the MCG.

It does not get any easier for Justin Longmuir’s team going forward. Of their seven remaining matches, four of them are against teams currently in the eight, with only the match against the Swans requiring them to travel.

As if that wasn’t enough, they also must travel to Tasmania, which has been a graveyard for the club since they played their first match in the Apple Isle in 2002, to face 17th-placed Hawthorn this Saturday afternoon.

(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Already the Dockers have beaten the Hawks in Round 4, and also won their previous clash before that last year, but the fact of the matter remains that they haven’t beaten the brown and golds outside of Western Australia since 2001.

They also face a Richmond side that will be eager to force their way back into the eight. That will be the first in a string of three straight matches at home before they face St Kilda at Marvel Stadium in the final round.

Unfortunately, I cannot see the Dockers winning any of their final seven matches, taking into account their aforementioned poor record in Tasmania as well as a long losing streak against the West Coast Eagles that currently hangs above their heads.

Predicted finish: 13th.

St Kilda
Currently 11th (seven wins, eight losses, 28 premiership points, 83.7 per cent)
Matches to play: Brisbane Lions (TBC), Port Adelaide (Marvel), West Coast Eagles (Optus), Carlton (Marvel), Sydney Swans (Marvel), Geelong Cats (GMHBA), Fremantle (Marvel)

Back-to-back wins since the club’s Round 14 bye have St Kilda fans questioning where this form has been all season.

After breaking through for a finals berth last season, the Saints have been one of the most disappointing teams of season 2021, with injuries to key players proving major impediments this year.

They were able to restrict Richmond to only two goals, producing a 126-point turnaround from their Round 5 clash at Marvel Stadium, while last week they led Collingwood by nearly 50 points before settling for a nine-point win in the end.

The status of their Round 17 clash against the Brisbane Lions remains up in the air, with the Queensland government yet to grant approval for both the Lions and Saints to contest the clash at the Gabba, even though travel from Victoria to Queensland is unrestricted.

(Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

This is because, as it stands right now, greater Brisbane is still classified as a red zone by the Victorian Government, meaning returning residents must apply for a permit, after which they must test and quarantine for a fortnight.

Beyond that, the Saints must also face current top-eight sides Port Adelaide, West Coast, the Sydney Swans and Geelong Cats in the run home, with the matches against the Eagles and Cats being in Perth and Geelong, respectively.

Brett Ratten’s side will, however, fancy their chances against Carlton and Fremantle, and those are the only two matches I can see the Saints winning in the final seven rounds.

Ultimately, I have them remaining where they are at season’s end, after which the soul searching will begin at Moorabbin as to where it all went wrong this year.

Predicted finish: 11th.

Essendon
Currently 12th (six wins, nine losses, 24 premiership points, 98.7 per cent)
Matches to play: Adelaide Crows (Marvel), North Melbourne (Marvel), GWS Giants (Marvel), Sydney Swans (Marvel), Western Bulldogs (Marvel), Gold Coast Suns (Metricon), Collingwood (MCG)

Essendon couldn’t have asked for a dream run home, with their next five matches at Marvel Stadium and six of their final seven matches in Melbourne.

The only trip they have to make in that period is to the Gold Coast to face the Suns in Round 22, but even so, the Bombers will start hot favourites as they attempt to force their way into the eight.

Ben Rutten’s side will start favourites in at least their next three matches, starting with Friday night’s clash against the Adelaide Crows at home, while they can expect to be tested by the Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs in consecutive weeks.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

The major obstacle in all of that is a six-match losing streak against the Bulldogs dating back to 2015, the worst of which was the 104-point thrashing they copped in Round 21, 2019.

After the trip to the Gold Coast, they finish off against Collingwood at the MCG, where they may have to beat the Pies by a bigger margin than what Richmond beats Hawthorn by if they are to nab eighth place at the expense of the Tigers.

I have the Bombers winning five of their final seven matches, and it should be enough for them to finish eighth just ahead of the Tigers on percentage.

Predicted finish: eighth.

Carlton
Currently 13th (six wins, nine losses, 24 premiership points, 93 per cent)
Matches to play: Geelong Cats (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), North Melbourne (Marvel), St Kilda (Marvel), Gold Coast Suns (Marvel), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), GWS Giants (Marvel)

While two straight wins may have revived Carlton’s finals hopes, in the short term it has alleviated some pressure off the shoulders of David Teague, who has been under some pressure to keep his job after the Blues’ poor first half of the year.

Granted, those two wins have come against certain non-finalists in the Adelaide Crows and Fremantle, but they will face a tough task when they come up against the fifth-placed Geelong Cats at the MCG this Saturday night.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

After that they will enjoy a four-game run of teams outside the eight, with three of them at Marvel Stadium, before they make their final interstate trip for the year to Adelaide where they will face Port Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval.

They then wrap things up against the Giants at Marvel, in what will be their second meeting this year after the Blues lost by 36 points in Sydney in Round 14. That loss came just after the club announced a thorough review of their footy operations.

I have Teague’s men winning only two of their last seven – against the Kangaroos and Suns in Rounds 19 and 21 respectively, meaning an eighth straight season without finals footy for the Navy Blues.

Predicted finish: 12th.

Gold Coast Suns
Currently 14th (five wins, ten losses, 20 premiership points, 88 per cent)
Matches to play: GWS Giants (Mars), Western Bulldogs (Metricon), Melbourne (Metricon), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Carlton (Marvel), Essendon (Metricon), Sydney Swans (SCG)

A lot has been spoken about the disappointing second halves of seasons the Gold Coast Suns have endured in recent seasons, but try asking coach Stuart Dew that if you dare.

After being forced to relocate from the Gold Coast to Melbourne due to a COVID-19 lockdown on the holiday strip, the Suns got down to business and produced one of the upsets of the season by defeating Richmond by ten points at Marvel Stadium last Thursday night.

The Suns do face a hellish run home, with five of their final seven matches against sides currently in the eight, including the next four in a row, while they also face an Essendon side whose finals hopes still remain alive.

(Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)

This Sunday they face the Giants on neutral territory, followed by a trio of matches against the current top three – the Bulldogs, Dees and Lions. The upside to the matches against the former two is that they are both at home, but they will still start underdogs in both.

They will also fancy their chances of a fourth win against the Sydney Swans from their last five meetings when they clash at the SCG in Round 23, but while finals may be on the Swans’ agenda the Suns can cause a psychological blow by beating them on their home deck, but it won’t be forthcoming.

Unfortunately, I can’t see the Suns winning any of their seven remaining matches and have them finishing second last, only ahead of North Melbourne.

Predicted finish: 17th.

Adelaide Crows
Currently 15th (five wins, ten losses, 20 premiership points, 84.2 per cent)
Matches to play: Essendon (Marvel), West Coast Eagles (Adelaide Oval), Western Bulldogs (Mars), Hawthorn (Adelaide Oval), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval, home), Melbourne (MCG), North Melbourne (Adelaide Oval)

Despite another season without finals looming, this season has seen some improvement from Matthew Nicks’ men, even if their 5-10 record and percentage of 84.2 suggest otherwise.

Among their wins this season include those over the Geelong Cats and Melbourne, teams currently in the top five, while they also came from behind to defeat St Kilda in Cairns in Round 13.

(Photo by Mark Brake/Getty Images)

With four of their last seven matches at home, the Crows can eye more wins in the run home, not least those against Hawthorn and North Melbourne, while they will also look to make it a double against Melbourne in what will be their only match at the MCG this year, and first since 2019.

They also have a home Showdown against Port Adelaide to look forward to and there is nothing the men from West Lakes would love than to cause an upset and rock the Power’s premiership hopes in their run to September.

With two wins from their final seven matches, I have them finishing 14th – a place higher than where they currently are.

Predicted finish: 14th.

Collingwood
Currently 16th (four wins, 11 losses, 16 premiership points, 89.5 per cent)
Matches to play: Richmond (MCG), Carlton (MCG), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), West Coast Eagles (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Essendon (MCG)

This season can’t come to an end quite soon enough for Collingwood.

It seems like only yesterday they were within a kick of winning a record-equaling 16th premiership but it seems the psychological and mental scars from the heartbreaking loss they suffered against West Coast in the 2018 grand final has carried on into this season.

After farewelling club stalwart Nathan Buckley with a 17-point win against Melbourne in the Queen’s Birthday clash at the SCG, the Pies have lost their past two under caretaker coach Robert Harvey, and are now staring down the barrel of their worst season since 2005.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

At present, they sit in 16th position on the ladder, and if they stay where they are it will be the lowest they have finished since they claimed the wooden spoon in 1999.

While finals may be out of the equation, they can at least cause some nuisance value to the teams above them, starting with this Sunday’s clash against the Tigers, who have dropped out of the eight after three straight losses.

They will also face certain finalists Port Adelaide, the West Coast Eagles and the Brisbane Lions, while in the final round they face Essendon, who could be playing for a place in the eight by then, at the MCG.

In the run home I have the Pies winning two matches, against Carlton and Hawthorn in Rounds 18 and 21 respectively, but it will not be enough to save them from their worst season for 16 years.

Predicted finish: 15th.

Hawthorn
Currently 17th (four wins, 11 losses, 16 premiership points, 80.7 per cent)
Matches to play: Fremantle (UTAS), Melbourne (MCG), Brisbane Lions (MCG), Adelaide Crows (Adelaide Oval), Collingwood (MCG), Western Bulldogs (MCG), Richmond (MCG)

If there is anything we have learnt about Hawthorn this year, it’s that the golden success they enjoyed in the past decade has finally worn off.

While the Hawks will witness September from the sidelines for the fourth time in five seasons, they can, like Collingwood above them, cause some nuisance value to teams either in the eight, or are trying to force their way into it.

In the run home they’ll get to play in front of their Tasmanian fans twice more, including this Saturday’s clash against Fremantle, as well as in the penultimate round when they could face minor premiers in waiting the Western Bulldogs.

One thing in the Hawks’ favour is that they’ve never lost to the Dockers in the Apple Isle, while they are also unbeaten against the Bulldogs in the state since 2008.

(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

They’ll also face two of the other top three, doing so in consecutive weeks against Melbourne and the Brisbane Lions at the MCG on the other side of their clash against the Dockers.

The one match Hawks fans will surely want to watch is the final-round clash against Richmond at the MCG, with every chance the Tigers could be playing for a place in the eight by then.

While Alastair Clarkson’s men won’t play finals this year, they can unleash their anger on the Tigers and end their season on the highest possible note – by denying the Tigers a berth in September, though it won’t be forthcoming.

The only match I have the Hawks winning is this Saturday’s match against Fremantle – and after that, zilch.

Predicted finish: 16th.

North Melbourne
Currently 18th (two wins, one draw, 12 losses, ten competition points, 64.3 per cent)
Matches to play: West Coast Eagles (Optus), Essendon (Marvel), Carlton (Marvel), Geelong Cats (Blundstone), Richmond (MCG), Sydney Swans (Marvel), Adelaide Crows (Adelaide Oval)

While it has been a difficult season for North Melbourne and their long-suffering supporters who have grown sick and tired of constant criticism of their club, signs of improvement are finally starting to show in recent weeks.

Since the club’s Round 12 bye, they very nearly upset the GWS Giants in Hobart before being pegged to a draw, while they also defeated the Gold Coast Suns in front of their Tasmanian fans in between respectable losses to the Brisbane Lions and Western Bulldogs.

Oh, and let’s not forget they also came from miles behind to upset Hawthorn in Launceston in Round 9, too.

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

Of their seven remaining matches, three of them are against sides currently in the eight, and next Monday night they’ll bore the brunt of an angry West Coast Eagles side which will be smarting after their horror loss to the Sydney Swans in Geelong last week.

Beyond that, they can cause an upset or two against Essendon and Carlton, before even tougher assignments loom against the Geelong Cats, Richmond and the Sydney Swans, with the clash against the Cats their final contractual match to be played in Hobart.

Whether the Roos extend their deal in Tasmania beyond that match remains to be seen. In the past decade in which they’ve played secondary home matches in the Apple Isle, the club has enjoyed plenty of strong support from the fans.

They then finish off against the Crows in Adelaide, and whether or not the Roos win another match from here on in until season’s end, the club’s supporters can be proud of the way their side has managed to perform in testing circumstances this year.

Their best chance at a win might come against Carlton in Round 19, but sadly I cannot see them winning any more matches this year.

Predicted finish: 18th.

If my ladder predictions unfold correctly, then this would be the first-week finals line-up (times and dates are estimates).

Saturday, September 4, 7:20pm: first qualifying final: Western Bulldogs versus Port Adelaide, MCG
Thursday, September 2, 7:20pm: second qualifying final: Brisbane Lions versus Geelong Cats, Gabba

Friday, September 3, 7:50pm: first elimination final: Melbourne versus Essendon, MCG
Saturday, September 4, 3:20pm: second elimination final: Sydney Swans versus West Coast Eagles, SCG