Can Matildas, or anyone else, anyone dethrone the US at the Olympics?

By Lachlan Hetherington / Roar Rookie

On July 21st the Women’s Olympic Football tournament kicks off with host nation Japan starting what they hope to be a successful campaign off against Two time Bronze medalist Canada.

With Rio Olympic gold medalists Germany failing to qualify for Tokyo there is no chance of back to back success for the nation something only the United States has Managed to do a feat they accomplished during their three peat from Athens to London in the years 2004-2012.

With three nations making their first games appearances and two more including host Japan returning after missing Rio everybody will be looking for gold to set themselves up for the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup in Australia and New Zealand. For reference the men’s groups are A to D and the Women’s are E to G.

Group E
Japan(H),Canada,Great Britain, Chile
Japan
Best performance Olympic Games Silver 2012
Last Olympics DNQ
Captain Saki Kumagai

Silver medalist in London coming off the back of the 2011 World cup win, Japan’s failure to qualify for Rio 2016 will irk the host nation. Winners of the last two Women’s Asian Cups and being on home soil, the Japanese should qualify for the quarter-finals as long as the pressure doesn’t impact them.

Captained by Saki Kumagai who is no stranger to international success, the now Bayern Munich player will lead a determined side to the quarter-finals where they will ultimately fall short.

Canada
Best performance Bronze 2012/2016
Last Olympics Bronze
Captain Christine Sinclair

Based on the last two games, Canada have to be favourites to top the group. Winning back-to-back bronze medals In London and Rio, Canada enter their fourth Olympic Games looking to make it too their maiden final.

Captained by Christine Sinclair who happens to be the most capped Canadian footballer of all-time in the women’s game. Sinclair will bring up game 300 in the opening fixture against the hosts in Sapporo on the 21st of July. Canada will play the third placed side from either F or G in the quarter-finals before going on to lose their next two fixtures failing to win three straight Bronze medals

Chile
Best performance First Appearance
Last Olympics DNQ
Captain Christiane Endler

It is a first appearance for Chile at the Olympic Games after their first World Cup appearance at France 2019. South America has been dominated by Brazil and Argentina in recent times.

With the women’s game growing on the continent, Chile should make themselves proud unfortunately finishing bottom in this group is probably the best they can realistically ask for. Captain Christiane Endler is the most experienced Chilean international and her form with PSG has seen Lyon sign her.

One of the best keepers in European club competitions however will not be enough to prevent Chile from an early exit. Bottom of the group but should pick up a point or two.

Great Britain
Best performance quarter-finalists 2012
Last Olympics DNE
Captain TBA

For the first time since London hosted the games, Great Britain will take part. Before 2016, FIFA stated that unless all home nations agreed they would not be allowed to enter a side.

An agreement was made with England’s nominated to compete for qualification at the 2019 FIFA World cup the way UEFA handles Olympic qualification.

England’s semi final finish now sees Great Britain qualify for the first time without host designation. The squad makeup is mostly English players with only three from the squad not England internationals.

Great Britain will look to do one better than they did in London and having the bulk of a World Cup semi finalist in their side may make them dark horses to go the distance if they play to their potential. I predict a quarter-final loss to Brazil.

Group F
China,Brazil,Zambia, Netherlands
Brazil
Best Performance Silver 2004/2008
Last Olympics Fourth
Captain Marta

Captained by Marta, Brazil remain a force in the women’s game. Not finishing on the podium at the last two Olympics will motivate a hungry Brazilian outfit.

Goal difference will determine top two in the group so how many Brazil can score against China and Zambia will determine quarter-final opponents, although Great Britain will be most likely.

China
Best Performance Silver 1996
Last Olympics quarter-finalists
Captain Wang Shuang

China enter this group knowing that if they can leave Tokyo with more than three points, that will be an achievement.

China should win against Zambia to ensure a third place finish which probably won’t be enough with Asian counterparts Japan and Australia doing just a little bit more to finish as the higher third places. Group stage exit in third.

Netherlands
Best performance First Appearance
Last Olympics DNQ
Captain Sari van Veenendaal

For a proud footballing nation, the Netherlands have never appeared at an Olympic Games in the women’s tournament.

Their performance at the 2019 World cup suggests this team packed with talent will make the semi-finals. It will be goal difference who decides whether Brazil or Netherlands win the group with a draw between the two and wins against the rest for both. Netherlands to make it to the semi-finals minimum regardless.

Zambia
Best performance First appearance
Last Olympics DNQ
Captain Misozi Zulu

Not much is known about Zambia. They make their first Olympic appearance just like the Netherlands. Unlike the Dutch do not expect much from Zambia other then to be used as canon fodder for the rest of the group. Expectation last in the group and a lot of goals conceded.

(Photo by Visionhaus/Getty Images)

Group G
Australia, Sweden, United States and New Zealand

Australia
Best performance quarter-finalists 2004/2016
Last Olympics quarter-finalists
Captain Sam Kerr

The year respite the pandemic afforded the Matildas after the Alen Stajic saga may actually be a good thing.

Although life under Tony Gustavsson has not started how anyone would like, Australia will take confidence in the nil-all draw with Sweden back in June in a friendly. Another result like that and a win against New Zealand could see Australia sneak in to the quarter-finals in third even second depending on results.

Captain Sam Kerr leads Australia in to the first of three tournaments in three years leading up to the home World Cup in 2023.

Third in the group and quarter-finals exit

Sam Kerr #20 of Australia. (Photo by Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images)

New Zealand
Best performance quarter-finalists 2012
Last Olympics Group stage exit
Captain Ali Riley

New Zealand have been handed arguably the group of death. Australia, Sweden and the United States will most likely take maximum points from the three games.

However New Zealand could cause a shock and with the talk of Wellington Phoenix getting a W-League licence in the near future a shock quarter-finals appearance in Tokyo may just boost their chances. New Zealand to finish bottom of the group.

Sweden
Best performance Silver 2016
Last Olympics Silver 2016
Captain Caroline Seger

Sweden have played two out of three group opponents in 2021 drawing both games against the United States and Australia. Performances like this and anything less then a win against New Zealand may see the Rio Silver medalist exiting or just barely qualify for the quarter-finals.

However, friendlies can give false impressions of where a team is. Expect Sweden to finish top two where depends on the opening game against the United States which will set up a run to the semi-finals if they can beat either Brazil or Netherlands in the quarter-finals.

United States
Best performance Gold 1996/2004/2008/2012
Last Olympics quarter-finalists
Captain Becky Sauerbrunn

The most successful women’s football team in the history of the Olympic Games. A penelty shootout loss to eventual silver medalist and group rivals Sweden in Rio means that their opening group match could possibly decide who tops the group.

The return of Alex Morgan who might have missed the games had it not been postponed will be seen as a welcome inclusion.

Combined with the stars of the last World cup win, the United States have to be considered gold medal favourites. United States will win gold for the fifth time provided they don’t slip up.

The Crowd Says:

2021-07-22T20:40:25+00:00

PeterCtheThird

Guest


Don’t a week and some hindsight make a difference?

2021-07-15T12:05:59+00:00

Newie

Guest


This was a much better article than the headline suggested, thanks. It's a really interesting Olympics for the women's teams leading to the WC in ANZ. Gustavsson really doesn't seem to be getting the best from the Matildas. They have lost a lot of the attacking style they had under Staj. Defensively, they're all over the place. Alanna K is a great defender but I think the constantly changing formations and players is disrupting them. Why is Aivi Luik playing? She's looked ponderous and error prone every time I've watched recently. Caitlin Foord seems to have lost her shooting boots and doesn't pass. But with Raso, van Egmond and Carpenter providing service, Kerr should do alright.

2021-07-14T06:56:31+00:00

jupiter53

Roar Pro


Major test of Gustavson's coaching ability coming up. Goalkeeping should at least be sound with Lydia W a fundamentally solid keeper, and Micah a decent alternative. Defence depends on him sorting out what formation to play to make the most of his selected players, ideally still allowing Carpenter and Catley to get forward, as we are so dependent on them for good penetration down the flanks. Defensive midfielder is vital to allowing this to happen. Hopefully KK is fit and ready, Luik a fair alternative, Van Egmond doesn't have the mindset for this position.. And despite all the publicity about Sam Kerr, attack is a major problem. Kerr is completely dependent on good service; she makes great runs, and is powerful and skilful enough to convert a good percentage of the chances she gets. But she is never going to make goals for herself. It was noticeable in the recent warm up games that Kerr was starting runs, but midfielders and other forwards were not on her wavelength. Foord is a big question mark, she seems to have forgotten how and when to pass. I would have chosen de Vanna ahead of Foord given Lisa still showed tremendous skill, speed and team awareness in the last W League season. I was pleased with Kyah Simon's selection; she is smart and skilful, and plays for the team. And I think both Fowler and Cooney-Cross both show great skill, and the confidence to use it, so very pleased about them. It depends on whether Gustavson can get a functional defensive organisation, and some sort of attacking rhythm. If he can, and they get out of the group for a start, I will be impressed.

2021-07-14T02:09:36+00:00

Buddy

Roar Rookie


Women’s football landscape has changed dramatically since last time around the block. Countries that appeared to show little interest have suddenly sprung to life particularly in Europe and you suddenly get to see just how much talent there is on a global basis. It may well be that the Matilda’s struggle against countries that are now pouring resources and time into the sport and possibly not allowing the USA to gallop away anymore.

2021-07-14T01:33:14+00:00

TheSecretScout

Roar Guru


there are big concerns, dont forget that was a sweden second string team they played. Sweden are a quality team, swedends actual first XI is stronger than australias. the japan game might be more a closer look of what they're capable off this tournament Kerr will get you the goals if you can give her service, the issue is the other end and trying to keep them out.

2021-07-14T00:19:01+00:00

Lionheart

Roar Rookie


Australia has to improve massively if they want to go beyond the group stage. We haven’t seen enough of them really, to judge how they are going under the new coach. They started badly, but that in retrospect, is understandable. Their defence looked much better in their last match but Sweden are not exactly a top team. They have their last warmup match v Japan tonight, and then it’s down to business. Good luck to them. Come on Matildas!

2021-07-14T00:11:35+00:00

Lionheart

Roar Rookie


get a grip, players in Europe are doing well these days. Kerr earns over a $mil per season. Don't know the average wage, but the days of part-time professionals are pretty much over in the UK and Europe.

2021-07-13T12:03:07+00:00

Brainstrust

Roar Rookie


Thats a bit weird, I think I remember that was what the media said at the time, win the group and you go through. Of course there were Asian teams in the Oceania group anyway. So the difference was you had 2 teams not 1 go through to the world cup it was still a combined Asia +Oceania with a final group like 1978. Maybe that was what it was all about 2 spots and South Korea and Iran were missing , the top two teams from 1978.

2021-07-13T10:43:13+00:00

Mark

Guest


Oceania has never had a direct qualifying spot for the World Cup. I think you are referring to 1982 but NZ had to play in a final qualifying group with Kuwait, China and Saudi Arabia after it won the group Australia was in before it made the World Cup finals in Spain. In 2010 NZ had to playoff against Bahrain after it won the Oceania group to qualify for the World Cup in South Africa.

AUTHOR

2021-07-13T08:11:54+00:00

Lachlan Hetherington

Roar Rookie


If Australia don't finish in at least third, questions would need to be asked about Tony Gustavsson management style. However with a bit of luck the Matilda's could be playing for a medal even if it were only a bronze. Although I do think the Matilda's will qualify for the quarter finals in third and exit there.

2021-07-13T06:26:42+00:00

NoMates

Roar Rookie


New Zealand should pip Australia for 3rd place, Better squad and the Matildas are on the way down.

2021-07-13T04:20:08+00:00

Brainstrust

Roar Rookie


Since Australia has moved to Asia in the mens we have not had one competitive match with New Zealand and only one friendly which Australia won. NZ are no longer really relevant anymore internationally they are in a different confederation. Even before that the new regime saw off New Zealand to make the world cup, in which New Zealand were actually embarassed that Solomon Islands got second spot ahead of them. That was a huge embarassment to NZ football. Under the old regime Soccer Australia was certainly a failure against NZ on many big occasions. NZ going to the world cup the only time Oceania got a direct spot was a massive failure. In particular the most embarassing was when Soccer Australia could not afford to fly their legion of European superstars to make the Confederation cup and New Zealand could so Australian fielded a NSL team and lost out. That was the ultimate embarassment in Australian football history , and even more embarassing that nations like Tahiti can afford to do that.

AUTHOR

2021-07-13T01:37:57+00:00

Lachlan Hetherington

Roar Rookie


Majority of the teams will feature at least one fully professional player. Although most players from outside the US and Europe(even then in some cases) will be semi-professional

2021-07-13T01:15:29+00:00

Brainstrust

Roar Rookie


How much would a player have to earn before they are considered professional. Even the NSWL the minimum nowdays is only 20k, 5 years ago it was 7k. European wages are increasing . W-league there used to be unpaid players now they have a minimum wage. I wouldn't say its money that is the reason for the US being dominant. They do have their college system which was great in the old days but going to a club young is better than going to college and having to mix full time study with sport.

AUTHOR

2021-07-13T00:41:58+00:00

Lachlan Hetherington

Roar Rookie


The 2nil defeat last night Australia suffered at the hands of New Zealand was a man's friendly. Ultimately Australia will most likely finish bottom in their group in the men's with Argentina and Spain going through.

2021-07-13T00:38:10+00:00

Brainstrust

Roar Rookie


Thats the mens u23 not the women. The Kiwis havent beaten Australia in the womens for about 30 years . That was in the NSl era before the Sydney Olympics bid was won where the womens team had to pay for their airfares and accomodation to play for Australia. Australia actually are facing New Zealand in the womens at the Olympics and that will be by far the easiest match. The mens u23 its ridiculous what Arnold has done, Kiwis have their strongest overage player in Chris Wood from the EPL and Arnold is doing his antics again and Australia dont even have their best u23 players thanks to Arnolds foolish demands. The overage players Arnold is bringing are a mystery why they are there, it seems more to be displayed on the player market. Kiwis are not involved with Australia anymore so its irrelevant what helping hand Australia is giivng them certainly the A-league has helped them. The rest of Asia made a mistake welcoming Australia into their den, Australia has taken one Asia cup and always taken a world cup spot and Australian players of mediocre standard have earnt millions tax free in the Middle East .

2021-07-12T21:39:22+00:00

Ad-O

Guest


I dunno. Do the other teams have professional players or is it still just the US?

2021-07-12T20:42:23+00:00

Republican

Guest


Mmm NZ just accounted for Aust in a lead up match 2 zip. Again NZ with a population of just 5 mill are able to defeat the indulged sporting nation I.e. Australia a population of 25 mill in all and sundry. Why.& how? Certainly looks like Australia will finish bottom of their group based on this mediocre result. Aside to that why are we fostering NZ talent by affording them membership of our domestic leagues? They are a sovereign nation while we continue this farce wherby they are gifted a claytons stathood to exploit our sporting capital. NZ would never display such benevolent largesse towards Australia in re to their coveted NPC of Rugby Union.

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