Manly’s drubbing of the Sydney Roosters, a team beset with some of the worst injury tolls in recent history, hides some serious work that needs to be done ahead of the preliminary final against the South Sydney Rabbitohs.
Sure, it was a great win. As a Manly fan I’m thrilled. But we’re also here to win premierships, not semi-finals, and as a fan I know we’ve got some big work to do.
Here are some of the key stats:
- 80 per cent completion rate;
- 8.67 per cent missed tackles; and
- nine errors and eight penalties conceded.
More worryingly against Adam Reynolds and co is that Manly conceded three forced dropouts on their line. While the scramble was magnificent on the tryline, Manly wasn’t up in defence in key moments.
(Photo by Matt Roberts/Getty Images)
To win the competition, Manly has to lift in some key areas that the scoreline was hiding.
The kick chase is the key. Daly Cherry-Evans had one of the best kicking performances of the season and is consistently delivering with the boot. Manly had a total of 668 kick metres, many of them delivered by DCE. In many ways kick chases should be Manly’s strength with a fast, agile backline and fit forwards who are fairly nimble.
Yet time and time again Manly seem to let brilliant kicks go wasted. We need to lift here, designating our fast men to target and pin opposition numbers in the corner. With Jaxson Paulo and Blake Taaffe doing the work at the back for Souths, chasing and pinning will be key to winning field position. No Latrell Mitchell means Souths kick returns will be weaker. But we can only capitalise if our line speed and kick chases show the effort and desire worthy of DCE’s kicking game.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: our error rate is too high.
Manly’s rate of errors, particularly in our forward pack, is simply too high. Josh Schuster delivered another two errors without ever really threatening. Tightening his game and ball carries will go a long way to reducing the rate of errors conceded.
To win, those errors need to be squashed. It’s obvious Schuster isn’t going to be benched, but perhaps his game needs to be simplified. Carry the ball with two hands, run straight at the line and only no-look when you’ve drawn two defenders. Simple rules might at least bring the error rate down and simplify how Schuster plays.
We need our forwards to aim up. It’s cliche to say forwards win a match, but in this case there’s no doubt that keeping Cody Walker and co 15 metres away from the tryline is critical. Our forwards need to win field position – it’s that simple – or Walker will tear defences to shreds like James Tedesco tore the left edge of Manly apart.
The key here might be to bring in Taniela Paseka earlier. Paseka is a big, agile forward with a lot of movement early. Bringing him in running at Cam Murray and Thomas Burgess might at least wear those two down and make bringing Taupau on better. I’d also be tempted to look at Tof Sipley for this game if only to have a more agile mover against Cam Murray, who is one of the best defenders in the game today.
All in all, it should be a cracking match. I think Manly can win but only if we chase hard, reduce the forward pack errors and wear down Cam Murray and Burgess in the middle.
The Final Word
Roar Rookie
"on the off chance Souths do lose it will be off the back of a terrible.decision by the refs" Decent referees and honest mistakes I can live with. But it's difficult to accept Ivan Cleary's drinking buddies deciding to do old Ivan a solid and pull the rug out from under Bennett as revenge for last week's press conference humiliation. If the referees don't influence the game and give both sides a fair crack, I can live with Manly being better on the day or Souths not turning up on the day. Just as long as it is a fair contest.
The Final Word
Roar Rookie
"they are all in it" ...until they are not. That starts next week for Manly. Unless Klein and Atkins decide to rewrite the script.
Mycall
Roar Rookie
Gagai is vulnerable to Suli only. Don't be surprised if Gagai makes a number of breaks due to DCE racing out of the line.
Onya.
Guest
Move the ball around & go towards Gagai in particular. It’s no fluke that South’s are letting Gagai go. Add some kicks over the top , to stop South’s continually running up offside.
Mycall
Roar Rookie
Maybe, but Suli can trouble souths. I don’t know what Sulis defence is like reading the play, but we’ve seen harper shown up 2 weeks in a row and south’s could execute those left hand raids blindfolded. Cherry Evan’s will race up on Walker to try to shut down the play, he only has to miss once or twice and south’s will make them pay with the overlap if Harper hasn’t read it fast enough. From what he has shown against the storms and roosters is he has a lot of work to do in order to be able to successfully defend outside cherry evans. Prediction for the game: Manly will work on this during the week, but south’s don’t need to spend any time on their left side attack, so they will prepare their plan b which will be Reynolds turning it inside to taaffe and/or Murray if the sweeping plays don’t work looking for holes like those left by cherry Evans rushing up on Walker.
brookvalesouth
Roar Rookie
Harper was great on Friday - and has had a great season all round. He had one poor game v Melbourne.
brookvalesouth
Roar Rookie
*A "B" grade Roosters that still contained the current NSW captain and Dally M winner, Origin standard players in Crichton, Radley, Tupou and Morris, and international standard players in Waerea Hargraves, Liu and Tupouniua.
Henry
Roar Rookie
I agree on all your points + I think Suli in for Parker, not Harper. Harper is a better all around player.
Mycall
Roar Rookie
Manly will have a chance if they play Moses Suli instead of Harper and they will need to go into the match with an offloading mindset. The only way that Tommy turbo will be able to get through the bunnies defence is off second phase play. They will also need to be perfect in execution and if they can achieve playing a faultless game with a lot of second phase play, then they will deserve their 2nd shot at Melbourne. The whole week will be about South's lethal left, but South's won't overplay it. They will win it through the middle in defence and score more tries on the right. Watch for Murray to have the special assignment of marking turbo in the middle. In attack, whilst Cody will be heavily marked, Reynolds will rip them apart.
Mycall
Roar Rookie
Manly don't have the same defence as Panthers so they will need to score more than 3 tries... And score them against the best defence in the last 14weeks.
Muzz
Guest
Manly have plenty of room for improvement. Don't get me wrong, they're good however next season they'll be serious contenders. Souths should win this one and then fall short against the Storm.
Cam
Roar Rookie
For mine, I just can't go past the leg-up Storm and Souths get with the week off. During the regular season, it becomes significant if one team has a 7 day turnaround when compared to another team with a 5 day turnaround. So to get a whole extra week off, combined with the R25 week where most of the Storm and Rabbitohs were rested, becomes a deal breaker for me if I'm looking at Manly or the Panthers. Storm to roll Souths in the big dance.
Monorchid
Roar Rookie
Henry, your title is "How the Sea Eagles can beat the Rabbitohs". I would say relatively easily. My side is out of contention for the year. But I will be barracking for Manly for historical personal reasons. They're mostly entirely illogical. For example, I used to stay at the long gone Bombora Motel at 46 Malvern Avenue, Manly when I was in Sydney on business. Great place back then. So Manly it is. Plus Manly seems to be hitting their straps at the right time. And Uncle Wayne really hasn't won a premiership for 11 seasons. And Souths are only slightly impressive. They might miss Mitchell more than they think.
Stin
Roar Rookie
What’s the problem with him writing an article? It’s not like he’s saying he’s an expert - just posing some of his thoughts on the upcoming game. Isn’t that part of what makes this site great? We have experts and arm chair punters who throw out some interesting reading on the sports we love?! Anyway - happy Sunday. And to quote Fatty Vautin - “Gah Manny!!!”
Henry Innis
Guest
I mean, I'll stick to using my algorithms for gambling but whatever :)
Onya.
Guest
Can you add ‘ Glory , Glory to South Sydney ‘ to that load of old crap. South’s mighty strike power scored 2 tries against Penrith. A little better handling by Penrith & they win that game . Even if they were out played in the forwards in that game. Manly has an excellent chance of beating South’s. If they can score 3 tries , they’re there.
C.a
Guest
For Manly to win, forwards have to match the south’s forwards, don’t give room for cook to run from dummy half and DCE to rush up on walker. Other than that, they need to cut out unforced errors which has proved to be their downfall too many times this year
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
Agree – if Souths play like they did v panthers last week, no chance for Manly. If Souths contain Turbo (as Melbourne did last week) then no chance for Manly. The only way I can see Manly winning if literally Turbo has one of his best games ever (which is possible), if he is on, then Manly can beat anyone. He is the best player on earth at the moment.
Walter Black
Guest
I think Souths win next week and go through to the big one. Manly can win it but they need to be at their very best, avoid errors and panic Souths. They can win but its a long shot.
Gold Coast Bunny
Roar Rookie
Souths flying under the radar- Des would not be happy.