As the 2021 AFL season finished up last Saturday, many in the AFL world were basking in the red and blue light of Melbourne’s victory and the future dynasty that might ensue for the next five years.
During this time of the grand final aftermath, we often overlook the runners up – in this case the Western Bulldogs, who for two and a half quarters were well in the game. And if not for a white-hot Melbourne side, we might have seen Chris Grant pass the premiership cup to Luke Beveridge and Marcus Bontempelli.
For now, Western Bulldogs fans look towards 2022 with great aspirations that they can use this heartbreaking loss to motivate themselves to premiership glory.
Unfortunately, the last 30 years have shown us a sinister fall for the runners up, so Bulldogs fans, you might want to look away.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The last 30 years have seen incredibly close grand finals with 2002, 2005, 2006, 2010 and 2018 all springing to the mind of footy fans.
We have also had grand finals blowouts with the margins being bigger than Ben-Hur with 1994, 2000, 2003, 2010 (replay), 2019 and the infamous 2007 grand final between Geelong and Port Adelaide springing into mind and giving PTSD for those fans on the receiving end.
While the teams who play in them and the margins in these games couldn’t be more different, the results of the season after for these runners up all have a striking similarity.
Runners up don’t tend to do well the season after making in some cases a long-awaited grand final appearance.
While this trend has become more common in time with Adelaide and GWS being prime examples of this statistic, there are far more examples of these statistics being right, which spells trouble for the Bulldogs.
Runners ups in grand finals since 1990 on average lose 3.26 positions regardless of whether the game is close or a blowout, which using the Bulldogs’ ladder position this year (fifth) would place them eighth on the ladder in 2022.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
However, this stat gets even worse for Bulldogs fans. Teams who lose by 50-plus points or more in a grand final – as the Dogs did on Saturday – on average lose 5.11 positions, which using this stat would place the Bulldogs tenth on the ladder, potentially making the Dogs the third team in five years to miss out on finals after making the grand final the year before.
While the Bulldogs will still play in September next year, this still should be deeply concerning for supporters of the red, white and blue.
We have seen these sorts of losses set back clubs for years with Port Adelaide falling into mediocrity until Ken Hinkley’s resurgence in 2014 and its rejuvenation last year. Adelaide are now in the middle of a rebuild due to their response to their loss, which saw the club fall on the ladder. And Greater Western Sydney surprisingly fell out of the finals last year only to rebound this year.
All these fans can attest to these results hurting the club in recent years.
While there have been examples of teams able to redeem their grand final losses with West Coast in 1992 and 2006, North Melbourne in 1999, Geelong in 2009 and Hawthorn in 2013 all came back to redeem themselves the year after losing the year prior proving to be the exceptions to the rule.
But that’s the thing, they are exceptions. While there are examples of this, for every example of this, there are teams that prove this stat to be true.
For every West Coast in 2005 and 2006, there is a Collingwood of 2002 and 2003. For every Geelong in 2008 and 2009, there is a St Kilda of 2009 and 2010. For every Hawthorn in 2012 and 2013, there is a Geelong of 1994 and 1995 and the list goes on.
So, to you Bulldogs fans, I’ll warn you with this: not every grand finalist can redeem their mistakes. So enjoy your team’s grand final appearance regardless of the result as there might be a fair few drinks in between.
| Year | GF loser | GF margin | GF year ladder position | Post-GF year ladder position | Ladder position change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | Essendon | 48 points | First | Sixth (lost elimination final) | -5 |
| 1991 | West Coast | 53 points | First | Fourth (won grand final) | -3 |
| 1992 | Geelong | 28 points | First | Seventh (missed finals) | -6 |
| 1993 | Carlton | 44 points | Second | Second (lost semi-final) | 0 |
| 1994 | Geelong | 80 points | Fourth | Second (lost grand final) | +2 |
| 1995 | Geelong | 61 points | Second | Seventh (lost grand final) | -5 |
| 1996 | Sydney | 43 points | First | Sixth (lost qualifying final) | -5 |
| 1997 | St Kilda | 31 points | First | Sixth (lost semi-final) | -5 |
| 1998 | North Melbourne | 35 points | First | Second (won grand final) | -1 |
| 1999 | Carlton | 35 points | Sixth | Second (lost preliminary final) | +4 |
| 2000 | Melbourne | 60 points | Third | 11th (missed finals) | -8 |
| 2001 | Essendon | 26 points | First | Fifth (lost semi-final) | -4 |
| 2002 | Collingwood | Nine points | Fourth | Second (lost grand final) | +2 |
| 2003 | Collingwood | 50 points | Second | 13th (missed finals) | -11 |
| 2004 | Brisbane | 40 points | Second | 11th (missed finals) | -9 |
| 2005 | West Coast | Four points | Second | First (won grand final) | +1 |
| 2006 | Sydney | One point | Fourth | Seventh (lost elimination final) | -3 |
| 2007 | Port Adelaide | 119 points | Second | 13th (missed finals) | -11 |
| 2008 | Geelong | 26 points | First | Second (won grand final) | -1 |
| 2009 | St Kilda | 12 points | First | Third (lost grand final) | -2 |
| 2010 (replay) | St Kilda | 56 points | Third | Sixth (lost elimination final) | -3 |
| 2011 | Collingwood | 38 points | First | Fourth (lost preliminary final) | -3 |
| 2012 | Hawthorn | Ten points | First | First (won grand final) | 0 |
| 2013 | Fremantle | 15 points | Third | Fourth (lost semi-final) | -1 |
| 2014 | Sydney | 63 points | First | Fourth (lost semi-final) | -3 |
| 2015 | West Coast | 46 points | Second | Sixth (lost elimination final) | -4 |
| 2016 | Sydney | 22 points | First | Sixth (lost semi-final) | -5 |
| 2017 | Adelaide | 48 points | First | 12th (missed finals) | -11 |
| 2018 | Collingwood | Five points | Third | Fourth (lost preliminary final) | -1 |
| 2019 | GWS | 89 points | Sixth | Tenth (missed finals) | -4 |
| 2020 | Geelong | 31 points | Fourth | Third (lost preliminary final) | +1 |
In 1994, the finals systems was expanded to eight teams, with the expansion to 16 teams in the league.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Ok, Schache and JJ for Ladhams (with a late pick coming back the other way to the Dogs, to help with our points for Darcy).
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
We’ll give you Schache so that he can’t torment Allir Allir next year – he’s just about to enter his prime. And you can have JJ too. Both are versatile and can play at either end. Two fringe players with potential in exchange for one fringe player with potential. Fair deal?
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
What are we thinking for a swap? Who have you got?
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Yea agree mate, Lipinski has already told club he wants to go to Collingwood
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
Interesting article, I think teams are more likely to fall away if they had an ordinary season & overachieved in the finals. Or if they are too reliant on ageing players. I don't think this is the case with the dogs. They had 15 wins in the H&A & missed out on the top 4 by a small %. They have a strong list, they just have to review their 2021 & learn from it. Just remember no one was tipping Melbourne to win a GF landslide when they drew with Hawthorn late in the season. Things can turnaround pretty quickly.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Yep definitely - I'm keen on Ladhams.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
English played reasonably well in all the other finals. He's about to enter a ruckman's prime from an age and physical point of view. I think he will be very good still, and he has shown earlier in the season that he can offer something up forward. Teams need two rucks now and it's best to have a combination of different types. Peter Ladhams sounds gettable and I think shows promise. I'd offer Schache to Swans for Dawson for Ladhams in a three way trade. Maybe Wallis goes too (if he wants to) or Lipinski or JJ.
Nicholas Quinlan
Roar Rookie
It's probably a bit too late but I should point out in 1996, Geelong didn't make the Grand Final and instead missed out on finals. Whoops
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Dougie what can we do regarding English he showed lots of promise prior to concussion & when he came back he lacked conviction & the desire was missing! I have grave concerns & Bevo clearly has a problem. The problem is that the cupboard is dry, what do we do?
Kick to Kick
Roar Rookie
“While the Bulldogs will still play in September next year…” That statement undermines the article and speaks to a lack of conviction in the premise which I however suspect is right. Maybe the Bulldogs will play finals and even win a flag next year. They have the talent and potential. But they are a hot and cold team. If they play as poorly as they did in the last 45 minutes of the GF and even the last 3 home and away games they will struggle. Remember the decline after 2016! Melbourne were good but not 100 points to 7 points invincible in that last portion of the match. The Dogs just collapsed and both they and other teams now know that vulnerability.
Chris M
Guest
That's a good analysis of what is likely to happen more often than not after such a resounding defeat. The Western Bulldogs team is certainly talented enough to roar back from such a defeat to take the prize next year. The list will have some useful additions over coming years and the younger players already there will get better. The Bont will still be a major player for a while yet. The club will also have time to address any deficiencies by trading or drafting in players. Luck with injuries at any time is also an important factor. It's also possible that the team may lose some depth players whom the club may not have needed so much this year but they could be handy to have in future seasons. The Bulldogs will probably be contenders into the foreseeable future until a lot of the other teams get much better. The odds are that it won't be in 2022, but in the next few years I would expect the Bulldogs to be in a grand final again. However, nothing is given as there are a lot of teams that look the goods for several years but just always seem to fall short.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
I don’t think the Demons tall forwards over powered the Dogs at all. McDonald got his only two goals in junk time and was virtually unsighted the rest of the game. It’s pretty easy to kick a goal when your team is dominating, the game is over and there’s no tomorrow for the opposition. Ben Brown played ok but didn’t star. Jackson was awesome in the ruck and Gawn was good too, but neither had a major influence up forward. Fritsch was the only dominant forward. But, yes, we definitely need a strong-bodied ruck to support and contrast English. Stef is too old now.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
That ruck Dept is a major issue, maybe have a look at Ladhams?
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Fair analysis and comment Nicholas, but wishful thinking. :happy:
Ace
Roar Rookie
Such a shame they did not have Bruce for the finals. Innocuous way to miss out. But he will be back Where they get a good strong leader down back is a good question but they need someone a la May
1DER
Guest
The Bulldogs list is right in the age group to push for top 4 for the next 3-4 years. Only Duryea, Wood, and Martin will be in the 30+ bracket at the end of this year plus 28-29 group is Crozier, Treloar, Johannisen, Keath and Liberatore. Under 23 group is loaded with future 150+ gamers in Vandermeer, Richards, Naughton, Smith, Weightman and Ugle-Hagan. Will hit the draft again this year as they currently have only picks 17 & 72. List runs deep so anyone wishing to exit the Dogs generally would most likely have currency. The salary cap crisis point may come in 2022 with the players out of contract including McLean, English, Dale, Daniel, Macrae, Johannisen & Dunkley.
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Dogs will be fine have great faith with a full pre season they will hit the season full of vigour & purpose. Don’t look to history as a barometer. Berrlins is correct if we are smart this draft we will shore up some issues in our playing list & also with our younger players beefing up we will be stronger to tackle the misdemeanours of the past. Dogs were terrible last Qtr & a bit no need for hysterical rationalisation!
Boo
Guest
Doggies probably won't win enough games next year to be top four as Josh Bruce might not get back .Ugle -Hanson isn't ready to be a replacement flag winning full forward yet .They lack good big blokes , Naughton aside .
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Max Lynch has been at the Pies a long time for his glimpses. He looked ok in one or two games and dreadful in another. Looked terrible in some VFL games too. I’m not convinced but the Pies need draft picks so it may happen.
Opps74
Roar Rookie
The dogs were magnificent in the 2nd and first 10 minutes of the 3rd quarter. I think Stefan Martin needs to be delisted and dogs chase a more youthful and big bodied ruckman like Ladhams from Port or Max Lynch from Pies who looked awesome when Grundy was injured this year. They probably need another gorilla in the backline as the demons talls over powered them as the game progressed. The blow out really did not reflect the closeness of the game up until the last 40 minutes. It's hard to know if they gave up in that last quarter because the blow out suggests that without being disrespectful. Dogs will be up and about with their exciting brand.