Australia looks set to bat Mitchell Marsh and Glenn Maxwell at number three and four this T20 World Cup.
However their presence at the top leaves a gaping hole in the middle, and a lack of proven finishers remains Justin Langer’s biggest hurdle in the coming weeks.
The Marsh-Maxwell combination, below openers Aaron Finch and David Warner, appears the right move. Marsh was the shining light in otherwise disappointing tours of the West Indies and Bangladesh earlier this year, while Maxwell is coming off a brilliant IPL campaign and is Australia’s best hope of lifting a first T20 World Cup.
Early indications are that Langer and Finch will opt for this combination in Australia’s opener against South Africa. Marsh has publicly said he believes he’ll bat at three if selected, while Maxwell at four appears inevitable.
Not only did he make the position his own for Royal Challengers Bangalore in this year’s IPL, but since 2018 it is where Australia has batted him in over 70 per cent of T20 internationals.
(Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
But herein lies Australia’s key problem: who, then, bats a numbers five, six and seven?
Few of the squad’s remaining players jump out. Marcus Stoinis is the only player with some form of success as a finisher at an elite level.
Stoinis has developed his late-order hitting under Ricky Ponting at the Delhi Capitals and between 2019 and 2021 has had the fifth highest strike rate of all batsmen who bat number five to seven in the competition.
Questions remain about his ability to rotate the strike early in an innings, but it’s something he has conceded and is working on. And at least in his case, there’s no doubting where he wants to bat.
“Over the next three years I want to be not only the best finisher in Australia, I want to be the best finisher in the world,” he told ESPNcricinfo last month.
Beyond Stoinis, however, options are limited. A glaring omission to the XI mentioned thus far is Steve Smith, whose position in this Australian side is particularly unclear.
Smith, like a number of names in the 15-man Australian squad, is only really suited to batting inside the top three. This suits Smith because either the field is up during the power play, or a ticking-over role is required against spin during the middle overs.
Yet when power hitting is required in the final overs, Smith tends to struggle. During his T20I and IPL career combined, he averages just over one six every two games. That would normally be okay if he was guaranteed to bat inside the top three.
However Marsh has deservedly sealed that position. Of course, there’s the option of pushing Marsh to number five (where he has had success in the BBL) to accommodate Smith.
But Australia should not tie itself in knots to cater for one of their greatest ever Test players. T20 is a format he is not poor in, but he is far from dominant, either.
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
The final piece of Australia’s middle order is likely to be keeper Matthew Wade. While the uncapped Josh Inglis is a name that sticks out for some, Finch has already confirmed Wade will take the gloves (at least initially) in the UAE.
While the left-hander is a dynamic T20 opener — and may even find himself there if Warner’s form issues continue — he is quite clearly not a middle-order player. In 19 opportunities for Australia at number four to seven, his average is just 12.6 at less than a run a ball. By contrast, opening the batting his average is 23.4 at a strike rate of 144.8.
Like Smith, Wade is a top-order player likely to be pushed into the middle. But this has not worked for Australia over the years, and as a tactic is particularly fraught. To be consistently successful on the biggest stage, teams need specialist players who can go in and score at a strike rate north of 150.
Australia has precious few of these bar Maxwell, and a lack of proven finishers also puts them at a distinct disadvantage with the three favourites this World Cup.
Related
India has Hardik Pandya and Rishabh Pant, the West Indies boast Andre Russell, Kieron Pollard and Nicholas Pooran, and England has Liam Livingstone and Moeen Ali.
Perhaps a risky call is required this World Cup to give Australia the edge.
Could they play the uncapped Inglis? Might they leave Smith out of their best XI? Or even promote Wade back to open and push Finch down to number five (something he did very successfully albeit briefly in 2018)?
History suggests they’ll stick with experience initially. But given they will start as underdogs against both England and the West Indies, Saturday’s opener against South Africa could already be make-or-break.
Whichever way Australia goes, Langer will be desperate for a last-minute confidence boost for his middle order during the the warm-up games this week.
Predicted Australian XI versus South Africa (Saturday, October 23)
Aaron Finch, David Warner, Mitchell Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Steve Smith, Marcus Stoinis, Matthew Wade, Ashton Agar, Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins, Adam Zampa.
Clear as mud
Guest
no support? Maxwell and Stoinis 78 from 53 at the other end. all 3 played good knocks in the context of being 3-11, in the 4th, but it was never going to be enough.
jose
Roar Rookie
Hazlewood should start ahead of Cummins, he is better bowler in T20s - considering the recent form as well.
jose
Roar Rookie
I think Australia will beat West Indies and Sri Lanka and will lose to both South Africa and England. If they can beat South Africa, they can reach semi finals. Proteas for some reason play well against Australia - even in the 2019 world cup, where they played very badly, SA still beat Australia in the last game and Australia had to play their Semi Final against England.
Gee
Roar Rookie
Inglis needs to play, Wade always was & always will be useless. Warner, Finch & Maxwell are the only batsmen capable of hitting 100s so put them in the top three. Any chance Mark Waugh could come out of retirement? From what I have been reading here he was the modern day Bradman and he still might have that special something that could bring home the cup for us.
Sedz
Guest
Todays game showed the importance of Smith. He played his role perfectly but there was no support from other end. Australia needs to replace Warner with youngsters like Green or Inglis. Aussies are not favorites anyways and they won’t have any pressure. Group stage is when they have to take a bold call to drop Warner if he is not firing.
Clear as mud
Guest
You can do it. I can do it. Henriques could do it on his head. Note I didn’t mention IPL or want to pick Stoinis, just chucking out a few guys who - if told that it was sufficient - could likely get 35 off 30. (Isn’t picking smith at 5 exactly what you said - picking a Guy who is better in the top order in the middle order?) Anyway, we will call it a draw and let the performances decide.
bowledover
Roar Rookie
They should only be bowling Starc if he looks in good form ... Im not sure in a t20I WC there is time for him to bowl himself in.
bowledover
Roar Rookie
Warner does look lost, but Id put good money on the powers that be starting with Warner and persisting with him unless he picks up a disastrous injury.
bowledover
Roar Rookie
I recall, and while Finch and Warner were (really?) good for a time... the middle order has long been a problem. Coupled with the fact we keep producing openers... and not enough middle order batsmen (or at least, they dont appear to pick middle order batsmen)... just seems odd they wouldnt try Finch or Warner in the middle overs more...
Clear as mud
Guest
Just as importantly. According to Langer Christian harassed and bullied him until chosen for the recent international tours. He went off once. In 7 digs. It was incredible. He can do that once every 7 digs. It’s not enough. Australia aren’t strong enough to carry that risk
JamesH
Roar Guru
No, Stoinis can't do that. No, Short can't do that. History tells us that both those players tend to get tied down by spin, struggle to rotate the strike, and try to slog their way out of trouble. Wade has the same issue. Heck, Stoinis has reached 30 just three times in 23 T20I innings. His strike rate inside his first 10 balls is atrocious and he heaps pressure on the player at the other end by chewing up dots. Stoinis was worse with the bat in the IPL than Smith. If IPL form is a prerequisite for selecting out World Cup side, good luck fielding a team of three players. Our thinking is not outdated because we pick players like Smith. Our thinking is outdated because we keep selecting players to bat in the middle order who are better suited to the top 3, and wondering why they struggle. We desperately need someone other than Maxwell who can handle spin through the middle overs and won't get bogged down. Hopefully Inglis can become that player but Smith is about all we have right now, assuming they won't use Finch or Warner in the middle order.
JamesH
Roar Guru
They actually used Finch in the middle order in a tri-series against NZ and England a few years ago. He only batted three times but we won every game (on both sides of the Tasman) and his strike rate as a finisher was a staggering 231.25 (74 off 32). Then we never did it again. Go figure.
David Schout
Expert
Nah, I watched. He had a poor IPL no doubt, my comment pointed to the fact that a very good setup at RCB deemed him a starter in most games. You don't get to that point by being a mug. He is a very versatile 'floater' and should have been in the 15-man squad imo
Clear as mud
Guest
What about the last 5? The last 10? That 16 takes you back to 16, as in 2016 Smith had 3 real good knocks at the end of 2019. That’s two years ago, which in the world of T20 form, is another lifetime. More recently he has been “anchoring” from 3. And on the last games doesn’t have a 50. Too many instances / like the other night - of getting set and then getting out in the Cunis territory, the hardest time for hitters below him to launch (9-15 over mark approx). Often getting out to spin despite the narrative that he’s the go to guy against spin. Stoinis could do exactly that. Sheesh even Darcy Short could get 35 off 30 and get out. — I mean, can you imagine if Maxwell got 35 off 30 and then didn’t go on with it. Left it to his teammates with 40 balls left etc etc. There would be a royal commission into why we keep picking him. But with Steve it’s “that’s prefect”, he has set it up for everyone else. Maybe Smith just has to train a little smarter….?! —- His IPL was super ordinary. The buyers knew. He should be at home getting ready to score 5 tons in 5 tests. —- Hopefully this has all worked and his 100 off 60 on the first game sets us up!
Stuckbetweenindopak
Roar Rookie
It is beautiful,Autumn is my fav when it comes to kashmir. Sunshine and temperature are perfect in Oct/Nov in Srinagar or central kashmir
Tom
Need Starc to bowl at the death. Hazlewood and Cummins are average at the back end of the innings.
Tom
In his last 16 T20i’s Smith averages almost 40 at a strike rate of 140.
Tom
I take it you didn't actually watch Christian in the IPL? Absolutely awful
Hughsie
Guest
I like Smith as floater, coming in at #3 if we lose an opener in the first few overs, otherwise pushed down the order for Marsh, Maxwell, Stoinis, and even Cummins. If Finch and Warner fail in the first games, we should give Wade/Smith a chance to open. I’m interested to see how much production we get from #7 and 8, likely Agar, Cummins, or Starc.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Reckon you'd be right in the middle of burn-off right now (maybe just starting). How is the air quality in the Vale at this time?