The Thursday rugby two-up: Last chance to revise Spring Tour predictions for the southern raiders

The Spring Tour – or the Autumn Nations Series, as it’s apparently become known – is about to kick off in earnest this week coming, with all our teams taking on someone from and in the north.

So, where are we up to now? We’ve done our predictions and aired our concerns already, but a fair bit has happened in the last week or so, and those predictions might be in trouble already.

Equally, with a few games in the can now, maybe some predictions were unnecessarily pessimistic?

If there’s a time to revise predictions and/or concerns for the tour, this week represents the last chance.

And what of the venues? Every team has one ground in particular that causes more trouble than others, so which ones are we worried about?

Question 1: We put down our tour predictions for our respective teams a few weeks ago, but lot has happened since then for a number of teams. Are you still content with those predictions, or do you need to make a few adjustments? What are they, and why are you worried now?

Nobes
I keep the 1-2 prediction from last time.

The game with Italy is still the one that they should win for sure, but losing to a toned France in Paris and in Ireland where they have never won will not be anything strange.

Digger
No, no adjustment needed as so far. What I thought may transpire has and I still believe the finish is quite tough for the All Blacks.

I have been encouraged to see the tighter structure around the loose forwards and greater focus on the breakdown. It remains to be seen against sterner opposition to come whether it sticks.

I still believe the French Test at the end is a bridge too far, so my four from five prediction and concerns remain untouched.

Harry
The only passing grade for the Boks on the EOYT is three from three.

Wales, the Wallabies of the North, will have several starting players back; their melodramatic injury problems are the problems every team has at year’s end.

Jacques Nienaber doesn’t have his first choice players at 3, 7, 9, and 14, and has no Bomb Squad.

(Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)

But the first match: that’s the toughest Test. Wales seems to enjoy playing South Africa. Even if Wales only beat the Boks once in the 20th century, in the last year of the Millennium, they’ve been a pest in this young century.

This has to stop. I want to see a soul-crushing smashmouth win over Biggar and the boys, with a 4-1 try margin at least. Scotland tends to find a way to lose to South Africa and call it “brave.”

The England Test will be nasty. We like that.

Geoff
I’m happy with where I had the All Blacks. Still a chance to drop one of the Ireland or France Tests, depending on what those teams bring on the day, but still a good chance to win both – particularly if they retain the disciplined tactical focus showed against Wales.

Ditto for the Wallabies; despite confirmation of the unavailability of Samu Kerevi and Quade Cooper, the original tip still stands.

The pack has been strengthened, and even though the backline depth is a bit skinny, there is still quality there. The only thing that would lead me to revise my prediction (one loss), is if there are any more injuries, particularly to the backline.

Brett
The news of Quade Cooper and Samu Kerevi’s sudden unavailability has certainly rocked the world of most Wallabies supporters looking ahead at these last three Tests of 2021, and I will admit I’m not quite as confident as I was about my 3-1 prediction for the tour as we sit here a few days out from the start of the UK leg.

That all said, the Wallabies remain capable of winning all three matches at Murrayfield, Twickenham, and the Millennium to finish the tour, and I’m quite sure that will remain the goal. As long as they tweak the game plan and let the replacements play like themselves and not try and shoehorn them into the roles of Cooper and Kerevi, then they can still do it.

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

A couple of weeks ago, I expressed more concern about the Scotland and Wales games, but I think the losses in the Welsh pack in the last 24 hours or so will really hurt the Boyos, and I’m probably now more concerned about Scotland and England.

So, 3-1 is still on, but it becomes more comfortable if one of the three comes this weekend, rather than the one.

Question 2: Of all the venues your team is set to run out onto this Spring, which one are you most concerned about and why?

Nobes
Playing against one of the best three in the world, and at their home is something to worry about.

The local players have been training together for two weeks and their respective teams did not use them this past weekend. On the other side are Los Pumas players who played mostly this last weekend and got together this last Monday.

Many of them play in different leagues and do not respect the positions they use in Los Pumas.

I hope that the obtaining of clean balls improves with respect to what happened in the Rugby Championship and that the couple of halves find synchronisation since both Tomas Cubelli and Santiago Carreras have never played together.

And what’s more, Santiago is new to the job and plays as a winger on his team. Juan Cruz Mallia and Santiago Chocobares are injured and would have been an almost certain number in the team, and Mario Ledesma will have to make adjustments, without much time to do it.

Digger
As the Irish have only managed to beat us once in Ireland, you cannot really describe Dublin as a bogey ground, and while France themselves have been often referred to as a bogey side for the All Blacks, their most famous victories have occurred on neutral ground and the ’94 series in NZ. Overall, their home victories are still in the single digits.

So, I wouldn’t nominate any of NZ games to come as being played on ‘bogey’ grounds, but I would nominate Paris as the ground to be wary of.

If my memory serves, the turf cuts up badly at Stade de France. Hopefully that has been remedied.

Harry
The Principality has not been kind to South Africa of late. But something tells me it will be different this time.

One: the confidence of taking the All Blacks to the final minute twice in a row.

Two: the players had a break.

Three: Cobus Reinach’s confidence is sky high.

Cobus Reinach (Christiaan Kotze/AFP/Getty Images)

Last: the law of averages.

Geoff
No bogey grounds for the ABs. Chicago maybe, and the Cake Tin has been a bit ordinary, but I don’t think either are on this schedule.

With four losses from the last seven matches against Scotland, Murrayfield probably shapes as the danger ground for the Wallabies. It’s definitely not Twickenham – all of the Wallabies, except Kurtley, will be walked on to the ground and shown the exact spot where Steve Larkham dropped his famous goal in the 1999 World Cup semifinal.

Kurtley will be walked over to the touchline and shown the spot where he thought the ball was going out in 2018, and reminded in no uncertain terms about there being no repeat of that nonsense!

Brett
Twickenham is the issue for the Wallabies, no doubt.

Two wins from the last eight starts there going back to 2010 speak of the rise of England on the international stage, and the last three straight wins means Eddie Jones will be at his Cheshire Cat-face best in the lead-up next week.

But coming off what will undoubtedly be a tough match this weekend in Edinburgh means at least the Wallabies will be well primed to end the Twickers drought. Let’s hope they can, and all my concerns above will be for nothing.

And to finish, the aforementioned loss of key Welsh forwards will certainly help the cause, as Australia strives to stop the home side’s winning streak in Cardiff at one.

Wales have only beaten the Wallabies three times in the new stadium – there’s no need for that to extend to four.

OVER TO YOU: Do you need to revise any Spring Tour predictions already?

And which Tour venue looms as your team’s bogie ground?