The law of unintended consequences: Perverse incentives, eligibility and the Pacific Islands

By Northern Hemisphere Apologist / Roar Rookie

During British rule in India, the government, concerned about the numbers of venomous snakes in the country, offered a reward to anyone who killed a cobra.

As a consequence, entrepreneurial citizens began to breed the snakes in order to claim the payments. Realising this, the government cancelled the programme, causing the breeders to release the captive snakes into the wild, increasing the population.

Such perverse incentives create unintended consequences, and I’m reminded of what was later dubbed the cobra effect whenever I consider World Rugby’s forthcoming vote on altering the terms of Regulation 8, the regulation which governs eligibility for international Test matches.

The change would allow previously ‘captured’ players to represent nations to which they have a ‘close and credible connection’ (ancestry or birth) after a 36-month stand-down period, introducing dozens of players into the Test arena who had been frozen out of Test rugby due to the policies of their original capture nations.

The change would overhaul the squads of the Pacific Islands, owing to the number of Pacific-eligible players tied to other nations, and is often talked about in that context, proposed as an attempt to rectify the existing inequality between rugby’s most talent-rich but cash poor nations and the sport’s financial superpowers.

However, circling back to our problem of unintended consequences, this good-natured policy could have a perverse impact on the islands themselves and create ripples throughout the wider international rugby scene.

It’s worth considering what factors limit the islands’ ability to compete against countries who, lacking the islands’ raw talent, are better resourced in every other department. The list is so long it would cover a separate article.

From political interference, corruption, lack of fixtures and mismanagement to players copping the costs of travel and accommodation and a rotating carousel of coaches with limited time to implement game plans, it’s miraculous that the teams manage to fulfil fixtures.

Changing the eligibility rules exposes a wider pool of players to the chaos that accompanies the island teams. The basic structural deficiencies still exist, but the cracks are papered over by the fact that the players struggling under them now happen to include some of the most gifted to ever play the sport.

Frank Lomani of Fiji (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)

But this doesn’t capture the scale of the perverse incentive. Fundamentally, under the rule change, dual-nationality players will be actively discouraged from pursuing national team selection.

Knowing they can represent their island later, after having their “real” Test career with a more financially rewarding country, the player’s choice between heritage and financial security will be removed, replaced by the logic of career first and “opportunity to give back” later.

The real beneficiaries of such a rule change will be that other trio of island-dwelling nations, the Celts.

The only way that such a change will be passed by World Rugby’s voting members is if it applies to all members of World Rugby.

It will not pass as a special rule for the Pacific Islands, or even for the tier two and below members of World Rugby.

The change will reintroduce the old project player programmes implemented by Ireland and Scotland, but now with capped All Blacks, Wallabies and Springboks.

A capped player now only has to wait three years and they become eligible for their ‘close connection’ nation. Other tier two nations will also profit.

European teams stacked with heritage players, such as Spain, will watch with interest.

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A last note on the original cause célèbre of this project though, the Pacific Islands themselves.

It is my firm belief that the worst thing that could happen to Pacific rugby is that the cavalry of ex- tier one Test players arrives and Samoa and Tonga score a couple of surprise wins.

Because then the men who have overseen the stagnation of three nations whose talent has given so much to the professional game, and received so little in return, be they mandarins at World Rugby headquarters or self-serving officials in the islands, can declare the problem solved.

Creating a genuine pathway for young players to play for their island nation on the same financial terms as any other is the only way for the pacific islands to compete on an equal footing. Only when this has been achieved will there be any sense of ‘giving back’ to the islands.

The Crowd Says:

2021-11-08T22:55:55+00:00

soapit

Roar Guru


cooper vuna?

2021-11-08T22:19:41+00:00

sheek

Roar Guru


Jack, That's correct. We might all play the tune of inclusiveness publicly these days, but old habits die hard. Discrimination lies deep within the soul. Whether it's colour, or race, or sex, or orientation, or religion, or politics, we're creatures who discriminate. It's acted daily in our lives.

2021-11-08T22:17:10+00:00

sheek

Roar Guru


Ken, As you know I don't care for the powers-that-be. The idea that these people occupy these positions for the greater good, is fanciful. They occupy them for themselves first.

2021-11-08T18:59:17+00:00

NH Fan

Guest


The thing people might not know in the TT is that every NZ and Oz player that comes to Europe try to prove that they are from the PIs as they are then treated like European players due to EU law. Only two non-european players can be in the match day 23 plenty ex WB/AB who are viewed as not from there. It's why up until 2014 Charles Piatau was a born and raised NZer, he then comes to Europe and is now Tongan. If Reece hadn't had a domestic he would currently be a Fiji international playing for Connacht, his deal fell through now he is "to good" for Fiji so only ABs for him. The rule will see more Reeces than Piataus with the PIs being stuck with has beens. Also you have to take into account that for the PI nations players pay for the privilege while they get paid well for other nations. If you can earn a PIs year's wages every time you play for a T1 nation to live on when you retire why wouldn't you.

2021-11-08T06:53:59+00:00

KCR

Roar Rookie


Yeah I watched it, It definitely had that tense big match feel to it with some bright spots. It was a shame to see the wallabies lose after their run of form, the Scots have been a bit of a bogey team over the last few years. I am keen to see how the Wallabies bounce back against the old foe.

2021-11-08T06:21:56+00:00

Peter

Roar Rookie


Thanks for the good natured way in which you took my comments KCR. You are a good sport and you are of course, correct. It really is one big joke. :laughing: As a wise man once said to me, "if you don't laugh you'd cry" which fairly accurately sums up how I feel about the Wobblies. Oops !! :crying: Looks as though I'm at it again, I mean't Wallaby's. I am getting a bit clumsy with my spelling these days. I tend to drop the ball. Bit like the Wobblies who as coincidence would have it had yet another loss last night. Did you see it ? The renaissance would seem to be over before it had even begun KCR. What a crying shame !! Thanks again for your kind words. I look forward to your next post.

2021-11-08T00:27:28+00:00

KCR

Roar Rookie


Peter, Peter, Peter Sunday is screen free in my household. So I Just read your comment this morning and it was very amusing. You had me going for a minute, I actually thought that you were this ridiculous and your new comment is the icing on the cake, ie relating your frustration to my late posting despite not responding to my comment for 12 hours, just magic. I am sure that you will have a lot of fun with this anti social social media comedic character, and I look forward to your future posts. I quite enjoyed that you wrote a particularly crazy and reaching post about authoritarianism only to end it by telling me that I absolutely cannot rubbish your character’s perspective, I will rubbish what I like thank you I thought this was a free country, ok I will leave the comedy to you. Your ability to create a character that takes simple statements and either misquotes them or completely creates new narratives based on what your character wants to say despite having nothing to do with the origional comment is brilliant. No where did I say that elite sports is separate from social issues or politics, I simply said that the Wallabies should choose the best players and that grass roots should be improved to expand that base. You took that, ignored it at somehow used this as a base to turn me into some sort of well-meaning naive. Just a side note If I were you I wouldn’t use a recent examples of socio-political elements in sports, I would go for a deeper cut. Considering you had the example of Ali right there, this was a great man actually targeted by the US government because of his faith and use of free speech. He was only drafted after publicly converting to Islam and when he refused the draft on ideoligical grounds they actually tried to take his freedom from him. This would far better prove your political and Authoritarian arguments. However it would also show that punishments and political interference has actually decreased rather than increased so I will leave that with you to use how you see fit in the future. I also enjoyed the attention to detail in character in the way you often use the world political, an adjective used to describe government policies and their impacts, when you actually meant social. Chef’s kiss to that. Speaking of Government initiatives you bring up one of my simple comments that racial quotas are wrong, which completely aligns with my previous arguments of nations should just select the best talent and create lots of it. You correctly aligned the use of quotas with authoritarian practices, but your character’s support or derision for quotas is left somewhat ambiguous with the ‘who needs quotas’ line. Your character makes allusions to their socio political beliefs without outright stating them, just a brilliant send up of a spineless antagonistic character. Perfect to form was your use of misquoting, my article clearly said the perception of elite private school types has alienated the Wallabies from the general public. Your character clearly agrees with the sentiment that this perception is harmful but your character would never agree with me so some tension must be manufactured. So your character makes it look like I am calling Wallabies public school types despite this clearly not being the case, as I genuinely want to remove this perception. Possibly my favorite part of the bit was when your character asked me a question, answered it for me, then made a moral argument against that answer. Proving that you are brilliant in winning an argument against yourself, and present an opinion that nobody in anyway was questioning in the first place, that’ll show the snow flakes not even Peter can mess with Peter. And FYI I absolutely would not have chosen KB his is a great Wallaby story. You then doubled down on this with your second post, where you had ample amount of time to read my origional comment, chose not, and highlighted your misquote. So no, I will not be providing any examples; as I said this is a perception that I do not wish to promote. In your second post you then called the national team the Australian Rugby squad, a term that I never used and then asked if this or the Wallabies is the correct term. Which is amazing considering your origional post was about the dangers of Authoritarianism, you now want me to tell your character what to say. Brilliant way to manufacture tension for more comedy no doubt. Call them what you like, support or don’t support them if you like it’s a free country, which is why I am free to call out rubbish like people actually believing that the Wallabies are less popular because of census results. Since DR has taken the reigns the general attitude amongst my family members, fans at work and my local have been positive. If your character’s experience has been different, well that’s their problem. I believe I have comprehended your comments in the funny tongue and cheek manner in which you have presented them. If however I am wrong and you are deadly serious and offended by anything that I have said then feel free to remain offended or don’t I would never tell another person how to feel. Cheers

2021-11-07T22:23:16+00:00

Spew_81

Roar Rookie


Hopefully Moana Pasifika and Fijian Drua result in Pacific Island born players being able to play in the South Pacific and play for their birth nations.

2021-11-07T11:06:57+00:00

Dave

Guest


What metric are you using to try argue South Africa is a desirable country to live in :laughing:

2021-11-07T10:57:21+00:00

Peter

Roar Rookie


KCR....... I notice you didn't respond to my post. I was looking forward with great anticipation to you supplying the names of all those "elitist private school types" that are currently littering the Australian Rugby squad. By the way, is that the correct terminology for our national team now or should I be referring to them simply as, "The Wallaby's."

2021-11-07T09:33:41+00:00

biltong

Guest


Well they do say ignorance is bliss.

2021-11-07T06:05:36+00:00

Dave

Guest


nah im good, the statistics speak for themselves

2021-11-07T06:04:06+00:00

Dave

Guest


wow harsh

2021-11-06T17:25:46+00:00

biltong

Guest


I think you might need to visit SA before making those judgements.

2021-11-06T16:48:40+00:00

The Ferret

Roar Rookie


no

2021-11-06T14:02:04+00:00

Dave

Guest


I think they’re in the same ball park, and living conditions come into any decision, in which case no one in their right mind chooses SA Yes 100% it’s a hole Because at the end of the day it’s their home, and even people that live in a horrible country are going to have some level of attraction to it regardless of how bad it is

2021-11-06T13:59:09+00:00

Dave

Guest


It’s a yes or no question. Either he deserved his wallaby selection on merit or he didn’t. Which one is it

2021-11-06T12:42:32+00:00

The Ferret

Roar Rookie


For a player who was never going to be a long term solution or option then I say yeas he should not have been capped by the wallabies. It was almost like he was capped to prevent him playing for his PI nation.

2021-11-06T10:30:19+00:00

Peter

Roar Rookie


But you didn't throw it in the bin KCR did you ? You recycled it. Thanks for that, The Roar does appreciate a blogger with a social conscience. To address your concerns. It is not simple. It never has been simple. Everything, particularly sport is and sadly increasingly is becoming not just politicised but deeply entrenched into the political system. Ask Quinton De Kock or Israel Folau if participating in sport at the elite level is apolitical, or don't their respective stands if you will excuse the pun pass your pub test ? Is Australia's Rugby World Cup bid not guaranteed to be subsidised by both our Federal and State Governments ? Who asked them to do this on behalf of the Rugby Community, I didn't. Do you think that in turn they won't demand for their supposed largesse (our money), a pound of flesh figuratively speaking. Of Course they will and the Rugby Union, like the beggars that they have become are prepared to grovel for every last crumb, even if it means cutting off it's nose despite it's face it will do so and in so doing push whatever social agenda the Political elite's choose to throw at them. Everything is political KCR. Participation in Sport at a community level is political too. Sure the South African's are using a blunt tool with quota's but at least they are not as naive as Rugby Australia is to bite the hand that feeds it. The AFL are savvy in how they target and encourage participation at all levels across all demographics. Rugby is inept and relies almost exclusively on the Wallaby's as a kind of one trick pony. This is a big mistake as I say and almost guarantee's that whilst AFL blossoms into the premier winter code across the Nation Rugby stagnates and cements it's position as a niche sport followed ostensibly by two to three percent of the population across only two of the Eastern seaboard states. No doubt your comments though misguided were heartfelt and I thank you for highlighting the situation in South Africa. In doing so you highlight Authoritarianism and just how corroding it can be but in doing so, it would do well to remember that there is more than one way to skin a cat. Besides who needs quota's in a country like a Australia that has in recent history been running the fastest growing per capita immigration programme in the Western World. As for your claim that Rugby is a game for elitists. I ask you, How many of the current Wallaby squad are in fact as you put it "Elite Private School type's". Kurtley Beale I hear you say. Well sure, He was given a scholarship, surely you can not begrudge the young man this benevolence. You are echoing the past. Football and AFL are as popular if not more so, than Rugby in many if not most of the private schools in 2021. Stop mythologising. If we are bound to disagree and I suspect we are, then at least a detente might be reached by acknowledging that it is one way or another - not a level playing field. I guess George Orwell was right when he wrote, “All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.”. In the three quarters of a century since he first published this attack on all types of Authoritarianism, not just Communism, it would seem that little or everything, all and nothing has changed but I guess qualifying such a statement will depend largely on one's own perspective KCR - don't rubbish it.

2021-11-06T07:49:20+00:00

biltong

Guest


Do you think players in OZ and Nw Zealand earn more than in SA? Are you basing your opinion on believing SA is such a bad place to live? Why do you think players return to SA to make a living here after making their money overseas? Even CJ Stander returned back home after being an Irish international.

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