We’ve all heard the term ‘moneyball’ bandied about in rugby league coverage.
Most recently it’s been used to describe St George Illawarra’s approach to recruitment. As many Roar readers have rightly pointed out, this is nonsense.
The Dragons have certainly been attempting to acquire value and depth at below-market rates through taking advantage of strained budgets elsewhere.
It’s an approach every baseball team has used. But it’s not moneyball.
That’s because Moneyball is a book published by Michael Lewis in 2004. It’s not about any single method of statistical analysis, player evaluation or recruitment.
The book charts baseball’s path from a game governed by traditional counting stats and the instincts and biases of its old guard to the beginning of the sabermetric revolution, with a particular focus on the Oakland Athletics of the 1990s and early 2000s.
Baseball’s old guard were the professional players who’d become scouts, coaches and administrators. They were a closed society resistant to outside influence and the challenge to their authority it entailed.
The old guard still dominates baseball’s coaching ranks. But player evaluation, recruitment and the governance of clubs are dominated by baseball fans, many of whom happen to have graduated from America’s Ivy League universities.
There are very few Phil Goulds left in baseball.
This piece isn’t about statistics. Rugby league can’t isolate different aspects of performance and measure a player’s contribution and value in the same way as a situational game like baseball.
League does lend itself to measures of probability – for example, the likelihood of teams scoring tries or goals from different positions on the field or players impacting a game over time.
Nor is this article about recruitment. The so-called moneyball method of Oakland – identifying amateur or unemployed players with potentially useful skill sets who were both undervalued by other clubs and affordable for Oakland – has been done to death.
Baseball teams have moved on to increasingly elaborate forms of roster construction and deployment, not to mention exploiting and in some cases disregarding the rules of the game.
Rugby league doesn’t have baseball’s national amateur draft or complex system of employment regulation and salary arbitration. Oakland’s method was never relevant.
Where Moneyball is relevant to rugby league is in terms of governance and good decision-making.
Rugby league’s old guard still largely runs the show. There are chief executives from business backgrounds, but it seems the middle managers and coaches – the old guard, mostly – disproportionately influence many of the big decisions. It’s not clear what sort of scrutiny is applied at higher levels. At many clubs there seems to be little.
We still hear terms like ‘common sense’ bandied around as if they mean something. Whenever there’s a seemingly intractable problem, we apparently need more ‘football IQ’, whatever that means.
Moneyball is mostly the story of Billy Beane, an unsuccessful professional baseballer who retired early and pursued a career in scouting and administration, and how he seized control of Oakland Athletics and usurped the club’s stagnant old guard.
Beane was no revolutionary. He was a disciple.
In the 1980s the statistical analyst and writer Bill James gained a cult following through his coruscating criticism of baseball’s antiquated statistics and the flawed tactics they engendered.
As Lewis noted, “his preference [was] for leaving an honest mess for others to clean up rather than a tidy lie for them to admire”.
The new guard, including investment bankers, mathematicians, economists and many others, gleefully cleaned up the mess. Beane and his predecessor as Oakland general manager, Sandy Alderson, were among them. They began to completely reshape the team’s priorities.
They had to of course. Oakland had very little money to work with and had to withstand their best players being poached by wealthier rivals.
While Oakland didn’t win any major titles during the period in which Moneyball is based, they outperformed most other teams in baseball, most of whom had much more money to work with.
In doing so Beane and his successors changed the sport. Members of baseball’s old guard were confined to operational roles subordinate to the evidence-based approach of statisticians and MBAs.
Many of them still resent this. It was top-down, controlling and an afront to tradition.
There hasn’t been a revolution like it in rugby league. There has been a benchmark club for much of the past 15 years: the Melbourne Storm.
Melbourne are seemingly the ideal balance between a dispassionate executive, middle management by people with some detachment from rugby league, and excellent coaching.
We’re not far away from finding out which of these was most important.
The long-time chief executive has departed, and the wildly successful head coach is not going to be in his current role much longer.
Are they a well-rounded organisation or a one-man band? An honest mess or a tidy lie?
I’ll leave you with Billy Beane’s five principles for recruitment, as written in Moneyball, lightly amended for rugby league.
mushi
Roar Guru
Also in a way the cap fraud was moneyball. The cost of getting caught was immaterial versus the benefit, basic risk reward suggests every club that could have should have.
mushi
Roar Guru
Though to answer the Q based on my rough had nothing else to do whilst working a late night. Individual net kicking metres. Team net hit up metres and net line breaks
mushi
Roar Guru
Sam was pointing out the new tpa reporting rather than the cap breaches, given they were a decade ago. Otherwise we can’t talk about many clubs given what, over a third have been caught on that at some point. I think the point of the article is that Moneyball wasn’t about being cheap it was about applying widely used valuation techniques and exploiting the arbitrage whilst it existed.
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
To be fair to Sam I think his point was that it's easy to manage your roster well when you systematically breach the salary cap by significant margins. Given that the essential point of Money Ball is that you can achieve good roster management without smashing the piggy bank, nominating serial sneaky piggy bank smashers Melbourne Storm as an example of a club that employs Money Ball principles effectively is questionable, and at least deserves an asterisk next to it.
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Yeah. If only someone had bought a copy for the Tigers around 2017...
Tim Carter
Roar Pro
Sounds like a YouTube comment that would have a link to a scam website at the end.
Redcap
Roar Guru
Do elaborate. Really. What do you mean
Pete
Guest
Money ball French rugby union...
mushi
Roar Guru
Heat maps for a structured game :laughing: I could see an extension of the NFL style stats. Collect years of data generate an expected points per field position, time on clock and margin. Then look into what influences variation.
mushi
Roar Guru
My bad 29 I did NFL not NBA on team numbers
no one in particular
Roar Guru
If money equated to success the Yankees would win the World Series every year, not once in the last 20. The question is, is the money being spent correctly. Some teams allocate capital for players who don't play 80 minutes, some to centres
no one in particular
Roar Guru
NRL Statisticians just have how many times something has happened - "Team A is 1-5 vs top 8 teams this season", "Team B hasn't won at Suncorp since 2012", "Player X has the most dummy half runs this season". All David Middleton wannabes, it's trivia, not stats. Nearly all of them want to tell us who has an easy draw next year based on a teams finishing position this year. You get blank faces when you ask them what the NRL's most predictive stats are. I sat on a presentation from a guy trying to sell proprietary data. It was all based on heat maps. So the left centre spends most on the game on left? Thanks mate
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Sloan also drifted too far into things like ticketing and monetising fans. The research papers at Sloan became much better then the panels
mushi
Roar Guru
League also needs better data collection first. All it's "statisticians " are just data entry guys. We need more of a possession by possession approach and then defining involvement.
mushi
Roar Guru
I think sloan also suffered from teams in-housing the best talent. In basketball it went from sonething like 8 teams to 31 sending reps. From there you got concepts not workable models. But yes RL is a dinosaur at this. Heck 6-8 teams don't use basic recruitment principles yet. Hence I keep championing that Jamie Soward is the best defender ever in the nrl:)
mushi
Roar Guru
Valuation principles apply either way, having more resources doesn't indicate profligacy.
matth
Roar Guru
I see Kevin Walters now has a salaried role with a 3 month notice period. I suspect this is in large part a reaction to the Siebold contract and resulting payout.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Sloan got killed when ESPN got involved and started inserting their people on the panels and dictating panel topics Moneyball was the introduction to the public the value of data. By using stats that were looked down upon and/or ignored they were able to put a value on every play, and value players across the MLB and MiLB accordingly. This is what happens today with data across nearly every industry, and this was the first mainstream introduction to it. Other major sports have had their lightbulb moments, with Olivers "Four Factors" in the NBA, Corsi in the NHL and various elements in the NFL. Even golf has Strokes Gained Unfortunately league does not have a Bill James, Voros McCracken or Tom Tango. League is preoccupied with what happened, not how
Nat
Roar Guru
I was just checking out Hook's recruitment at the Panthers and he had a similar model. He wa the one who brought in Tamou and Merrin but a few short stints by the likes of Tim Browne (pre retirement). On a positive he had them paying Finals so if he can get Saints there at least, that is 1-2 more years experience for the talented young fellas.
Redcap
Roar Guru
I can and have. I'm not interested in how much money a team spends. I'm interested in how well they spend it and how they make decisions.