North Queensland’s chances of a finals return in 2022 don’t solely come down to Jason Taumalolo getting back to his best but they’re no chance if he can’t regain peak form.
Taumalolo and fullback Valentine Holmes eat up a sizeable chunk of the Cowboys’ salary cap but the club did not get value for money out of their high-priced duo last season as the side fell away dramatically after challenging for the top eight halfway through their campaign.
A mix of injuries and a drop in output from the pair was a major factor in the team losing 11 of their last 12 games to tumble from seventh in round 14 to second last, only ahead of wooden spooners Canterbury.
Payten reduced Taumalolo’s minutes in his first season as Cowboys coach in the belief that he was being asked to do too much over the course of 80 minutes.
The “less is more” approach was supposed to result in a greater impact from the star lock but it seemed to backfire in Taumalolo’s 15 appearances.
Renowned as the NRL’s best metre eater, he averaged just 155 metres per game, well down on his record of 207 the previous year and his lowest output since North Queensland’s premiership run in 2015.
His post-contact metres dipped below 1000 for the first time since 2013 and the Cowboys won just 20% of matches when he suited up, the worst record of his decade-plus career.
The 2016 Dally M Medal joint winner is 28 and should be in the prime of his career. He is under contract at a lucrative rate until the end of 2027 after signing a mega deal four years ago.
North Queensland can’t afford to have their marquee player giving them better-than-average contributions for their investment – he needs to be elite otherwise the diminishing returns will become more problematic as he enters the veteran stage of his career.
(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
They have a similar dilemma with Holmes. Even his harshest critics wouldn’t say he was bad in his 32 games since returning to the NRL with the Cowboys last year after giving up on his hope of breaking into the NFL with the New York Jets.
He’s had a few injuries and been shuffled around from fullback to wing and centre but the Cowboys expected more and need more from him for their roster to be any chance of becoming playoff contenders.
Despite being one of the NRL’s younger coaches, Payten is renowned for his old-school approach of not guaranteeing anyone’s position in the team.
If that method works, a player will not get comfortable and always be at their best to ensure they don’t lose their spot.
But when the player doesn’t respond to the tough love because they don’t think they’re getting due recognition, they can go the other way. This is what seems to have happened with Holmes – his best season at the Sharks in 2018 was when he was given a decent chance to settle into the No.1 jersey despite the claims of Josh Dugan or Matt Moylan.
Once he found his groove, his form in the second half of the season was sensational and he nearly claimed the Dally M Medal, finishing third behind Warriors star Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Newcastle’s Kalyn Ponga in a red-letter year for fullbacks.
Holmes needs to prove that season was not just a flash in the pan. He’s been an elite winger since he came into the NRL seven years ago at Cronulla but despite plenty of opportunities at the Cowboys and with Queensland at Origin level, he has not delivered the goods on a consistent basis when handed the No.1 jersey.
The other issue Payten needs to sort before the start of the season, or within the first month at least, is which two players will be his halves combination.
When the club signed Broncos prospect Tom Dearden and Sharks veteran Chad Townsend in April, it appeared five-eighth Scott Drinkwater’s cards had been marked but he not only re-signed on a two-year deal, he was their best player in a disappointing season.
Dearden, who joined the club for the last dozen games of the season, has been rated highly as a potential star of the future since his NRL debut in 2019 but his form has suffered after experiencing a similar scenario at Brisbane where he was in and out of the team.
The least-experienced of the trio at 20, he is probably the likely player to miss out in the “three’s company” halves race but Payten won’t worry about reputations when it comes time to select his side for round one.
Drinkwater is versatile enough to find a place elsewhere in the backs but he’s developed into a decent five-eighth and his best days are ahead of the 24-year-old whereas Townsend, who turns 31 next month, is in the veteran category but still capable of organising a team with his kicking and passing game.
What’s new
Veteran halfback Chad Townsend has joined the club from Cronulla via a mid-season stint with the Warriors while Kiwi centre Peta Hiku and young prop Jamayne Taunoa-Brown have also made the trek north with him.
They’ve turned over a large part of their roster with forwards Francis Molo (Dragons), Shane Wright (Salford), Peter Hola (Raiders) and Corey Jensen (Broncos) moving on and centres Justin O’Neill and Javid Bowen retiring.
Star on the rise
Heilum Luki was blooded at NRL level last season, making 11 appearances mostly off the bench and despite being a little rough around the edges, the 20-year-old second-rower showed he has a big future. The Cowboys have lacked impact on the edges to replace long-term duo Gavin Cooper and Ethan Lowe, and Luki has the size and athleticism to give them that much-needed point of difference.
Who’s under the pump
Payten to a certain extent. This should be the year where he gets significant improvement out of the team. Last season was about establishing his systems and making some long-overdue changes to the roster to get new blood on the Cowboys’ paddock. He knocked back the possibility of building on his impressive caretaker season at the Warriors for the North Queensland gig so 2022 will be a year where he solidifies his tenure for the long term or questions are asked about whether he can turn their fortunes around.
Best-case scenario
If they can make Townsville a fortress again, the Cowboys could be on the fringe of the top eight and potentially even break into the finals. But they need to settle on a halves combination quickly and for Taumalolo and Holmes to live up to their price tags.
Worst-case scenario
They faded swiftly in the second half of last season when a few injuries struck – their depth is slightly improved in 2022 but still not enough to cover sustained absences from their better players. If Payten’s approach doesn’t start to bear fruit in the first half of the season, they have the potential to again finish among the also-rans.
Round 1 predicted team
1. Valentine Holmes
2. Kyle Feldt
3. Peta Hiku
4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
5. Murray Tualagi
6. Scott Drinkwater
7. Chad Townsend
8. Jordan McLean
9. Reece Robson
10. Coen Hess
11. Mitchell Dunn
12. Heilum Luki
13. Jason Taumalolo
14. Reuben Cotter
15. Ben Condon
16. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown
17. Lachlan Burr
Others: Daejarn Asi, Kane Bradley, Tom Dearden, Tom Gilbert, Jake Granville, Ben Hampton, Laitia Moceidreke, Jeremiah Nanai, Griffin Neame, Emry Pere, Connelly Lemuelu
mushi
Roar Guru
Not sure we get much insight into the less is more strategy on JT from his raw stats. Of course his total per game numbers went down playing less minutes, what would be useful is to see what his per minutes numbers were. Also we should add the numbers of whomever interchanged for him. Tough also to blame the w/l record on JT. The team has an over matched spine. It's not like the cowboys front office has demonstrated a keen eye for fre agent talent. So taking JTs salary and spending it on players of the quality of the other 16 would have them in bulldogs territory.
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Hmmm. Probably not. Nofa and Mamaulo both ahead of Feldt on tries, run metres, tackle breaks, offloads. Talau ahead of Hiku on tries, line breaks, tackle breaks, run metres, offloads.
Hairy
Roar Rookie
The Tigers?
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
The backline doesn’t look too bad. You sure about that Hairy? I can't think of what other team would swap the old and slow Feldt and Hiku for their centre/wing pairing...
3 R M
Guest
The replacements for the retired players are not that bad . With Chad he's never going to be Morgs but neither was Morgs in the end, the groin/concussions and shoulder put an end to that. At least he will kick us to where we need to be something that didn't happen in the last half of the season, you can't build pressure by smurfing a football 25 metres down field. Hiku for Juzzie is a fair replacement with Juzzies knees being what they were. Then we have Payton signing another warriors fringe first grader hopefully just for depth as I can't see him getting in the side ahead of Neame. The Luche he'll start we're paying him overs . The youth coming through is the big win if we can keep them . Nanai could play second row,centre or lock but should start in the other SR but who knows. The bench will be tightly fought . Dunn, Cotter, Neame Granville, Luki and Gilbert from last year then the young props and the 2 Fijian 7s reps. The development players are good again this year and some backs may get game time in the second half of the season due to injuries / unavailability So the roster looks good again IMO. Paytons crew did some positives with the edge defence by releasing Masters, having players in the right position on the field and moving Dunn and Hess to the centre, But it didn't stop us bleeding points, like severed leg bleeding points, down both edges. This should be the priority for the coaches to fix we laid on enough points to be further up the ladder last year and looked OK when we had some momentum but some times the smallest shift brought us undone the catch phrase , lacked resilience. Was used alot last year by Payton. the players and coaches know what the have to do. I think we will be a lot better this season and the roster will improve with the youth coming through so the future looks positive at the moment . So a 8-10 ladder position would be a win for the coach and the club or a run of losses like the last half of the season in the first 10 games of 22 would see the Sheppard's hook from stage left for Payton I think
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Totally agree on Drinkwater. He turns into a headless chook when the pressure goes on. Also agree on Dearden . He was really good for us . He could teach Drinkwater a thing or two about front on Defence. I really hope we are putting in the time to develop his kicking game. I really like the kid and I have high hopes for him.
Nat
Roar Guru
Now the role of lock has evolved back to a more agile, ball-player he will have to move up. Kevvie is going to have to make the same call with Carrigan soon enough. Hetherington might be our boy in that regard. NQ made the same mistake financially as the Titans did with Hayne, great when they left but paying for 2 years worth of rust at an inflated cost. Although I think Holmes has the impetus and drive to get better and he should.
Nat
Roar Guru
I'll happily give my money to the Doctors who will save your life in spite of your ignorant views.
Kent Dorfman
Roar Rookie
& they need the other 15 in the squad to man up instead of rolling on their backs with their legs in the air when things get tough. No point being the best player in the team if the opposition know it & every time put 4 blokes in the tackle confident that the rest of the team will do jack sht
Nat
Roar Guru
Geez Rob, I hope you are not blaming the Cowboys season on a kick error from Drinkwater? There is no doubt he needs to work on his D, I made a point of that, however, there is a lot of clubs that would like a 100rm ave and 22 t/a and LBA in a season where they came 2nd last. To put some perspective around his mistakes, Turbo made 50% more errors than he did in a Dally M season. I'm a fan of Dearden as well and (IMO) he hasn't really had the opportunity to shine at the two clubs he's been with but it is either him or Chad. Chad has the kicking game and experience but to have Tom and Chad is just slow and running through the motions. Either would be a solid partner for Drinkwater but Chad has the guidance they need but not the enthusiasm Tom has. Mostly agree about JT13. A bit harsh to say he's consistently injured, he broke his hands. It's unfortunate but not consistent. He has been doing the same thing on the field for many years and lauded for it. Forget what he is not doing, ala offloads etc, that has never been in forte. Who would you rather: 30 offload and 30 mistake TPJ or 200m and 1 offload JT? Be the best at one simple job and he is the best at that.
Kent Dorfman
Roar Rookie
learnt from Ash Taylor & Milford
Nat
Roar Guru
You ask me for $10, I would give it to you. You fall on hard times, I would help to the best of my ability. You ask me to ignore the medical professionals because you are afraid and ignorant and I'm going to treat you with all the disdain I can muster.
Redcap
Roar Guru
Given your extraordinary insight, and apparent possession of high-level qualifications in immunology and virology, why are you posting these insights on a sports forum under a ridiculous pseudonym? Shouldn't you be submitting for publication in Lancet? You know, tacking the problem at the source, rather than wasting your time on people you yourself describe as unthinking sheep.
Rellum
Roar Guru
Holmes on the money he is on was an obvious mistake when they signed him. He is a winger. JT13 is a prop now and when they played him there this year he went very well. He cant play lock anymore.
Nat
Roar Guru
Into the footy, pubs, clubs, job sites and wherever I want with a welcoming big smile. You deadheads are stuck at home trying to skew the facts to justify your ignorant POV. No one misses you. This is a sports blog dipsh.t. You get banned repeatedly because you want to turn every discussion into a vax debate and offer nothing about the game. Go back to FB with the rest of your Mullumbimby herbal practitioners.
Rob
Guest
I’m not sure Drinkwater is NRL standard or ever will be. This flair you wish to see has cost the Cowboys repeatedly with poor decisions and horrible defence. The Cowboys were leading or level in 7 games and a simple kick error from Drinkwater turned the momentum which then resulted in a loss? I have a lot more time for what Dearden brings especially with his efforts supporting the football ( 6 tries in 12 games), getting his body in front and chasing in defence ( leading the kick chase). Support play and kick chase is a competitive attitude. It was a major part of Thurston success and why players like Lamb and Walters won more premierships IMO. Dearden needs to work on his kicking but that’s understandable given he is only 20 and hasn’t been played in the dominant kicking role. I thought Holmes would be great at fullback but in reality he’s in the lower end of the competitions best fullbacks. Hammer is a substantial better 1 with attack, defence and with his hands. I hope Holmes can preform at centre otherwise we have the most expensive winger ever signed. Taumalolo might be a great carrier of the football but he’s an average defender. I think Todd has identified he’s not an edge player with limited passing, offloading and poo one on one tackle technique. He wants Taumalolo to be strong carrying the football through the middle of the field. His ability to play 60 minutes has always been questionable and his consistently been getting hurt in recent years which makes it hard to get him at that level of match fitness. A quality kicking game will improve the defence, attack, fitness and in turn the effectiveness of Taumalolo breaking tackles and making meters also IMO.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
I honestly can't wait to see those young guys ( plus HTF ) go round next year . Very exciting.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
I have always thought Cotter could play the Same role as B Smith at Melbourne. Start him at nine, bring on Robson after 25 mins and then Cotter can go back to lock.
Paul Suttor
Expert
They rate Cotter highly. It wouldn't surprise me to see him start at lock with Taumalolo at prop at some stage
Jacko
Roar Rookie
I think Peyton has massively mis read Taumalolo. To see these figures of not making the post tackle metres he has made for 7 years is a clear signal he likes more time on the field than Peyton is giving him and I wonder if the reduced time has angered JT and reduced his care factor. Id be asking him to lead this team this year and giving him plenty of time.