In the very first edition of my AFL season previews, we’re going to be covering Essendon.
In these previews, we will talk about each position of the ground and how they match up against the rest of the competition, discuss depth, which is going to be very important due to COVID in 2022, and discuss the predicted strengths and weaknesses of each team in the competition going into the season.
Essendon best 22
B: Mason Redman, Jayden Laverde, Jordan Ridley
HB: Nick Hind, James Stewart, Dyson Heppell
C: Nick Cox, Andrew McGrath, Kyle Langford
HF: Will Snelling, Harrison Jones, Jake Stringer
F: Anthony McDonald Tipungwuti, Peter Wright, Archie Perkins
R: Sam Draper, Darcy Parish, Zach Merrett
I: Jye Caldwell, Dylan Shiel, Jake Kelly, Ben Hobbs
Defence
The Essendon defence is arguably the position that improved enough for them to play finals in 2021 and there’s no reason it can’t perform to at least that level again, if not improve.
The controversial position in the 22 is whether Aaron Francis or James Stewart plays as the key lockdown defender, but I’ve sided with Stewart as I think Francis plays the role of an accountable interceptor much better than he does playing as the lockdown defender and I can’t see him being put ahead of Jayden Laverde for that position.
Laverde was a huge improver for the Bombers last season. He was at full fitness for the first time in a while and played all 23 games, recorded career-high averages in marks per game, disposals per game, and raked in the top 50 for intercepts in the competition.
Jordan Ridley continued his upwards trajectory to being one of the competitions best defenders, ranking in the top 30 for intercepts among all players, ranking inside the top ten for rebounds per game, and ranking inside the top ten for effective disposals per game. He is the perfect modern defender at 195cm and will be the key to the Essendon defence for the next decade.
Jordan Ridley (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
The likes of Heppell, Hind, and Redman also had much better seasons and realistically should stay at that level again.
The recruitment of Jake Kelly is shrewd from the Bombers. He will play as the lockdown small/medium defender against the likes of Papley and Cameron and, to a lesser extent, the likes of Dustin Martin and Tim Membrey which was a role Ridley had to play at times which didn’t allow him to play his natural game.
The issue for the Essendon defence is still that big hulk of a forward. Outside of Stewart (who can play the occasional stinker), the Bombers’ next tallest defender is Ridley at 195cm who just can’t play against the likes of Tom Hawkins, Lynch, Charlie Dixon etc as he isn’t strong enough and then there’s Laverde at 193cm who battles manfully against bigger opponents, but still has the potential to be beaten up on comprehensively.
The upside? The Bombers move the ball quick and lethally with the likes of Ridley and Heppell coming out of that back 50. Hind has the pace to break lines and was terrific last season, as was Mason Redman.
They’re going to have to continue that this season due to other areas of the ground being weak and if they can do it as successfully as last season, it’ll go a long way to them playing finals again.
Midfield
Arguably the strongest area of this team is through the middle of the ground, evident by them restricting the opposing team’s clearance numbers last season (ranked fourth in least opponent clearances per game) as well as ranking fifth for disposals per game.
Darcy Parish was a top-five midfielder in the competition last season and at the age of 24, is only going to get better. His main obstacle is going to be dealing with the heavy tag in which halted his brilliant run of form late in 2021, but he’ll be better for that experience.
Zach Merrett is a ball magnet who uses the ball incredibly well (ranked fourth in effective disposals last season) and even though I don’t think he’s an inside midfielder, he is incredibly important to the way this team operates. I expect him to be pushed out to a wing this season.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
A fully fit and firing Andrew McGrath could be the difference between improvement and stagnation for the Bombers this year and I think he is their most important player. Before he got injured last year, he was playing nearly in career-best form (which coincided with three big wins) and obviously after the injury he only played three games for the rest of the season and wasn’t up to the speed of the game, especially in finals.
He is the inside midfielder they need to complement Parish and if he can take a big step up this year, it looks like an A-grade midfield.
The strength of the midfield is that they also have plenty of depth in there. Outside of Parish, Merrett, and McGrath they still have the likes of Jake Stringer, Dylan Shiel, Jye Caldwell, Kyle Langford and draftee Ben Hobbs to push through there. If the likes of Stringer, Caldwell, and Hobbs can impose themselves in this midfield during games it’ll be important to get first use.
Attack
The forward line is going to be the area that lets down the Bombers again in 2022 as it’s hard to see where the improvement is coming from.
Can Peter Wright play better than he did late in 2021? There must be doubts surrounding that considering he kicked 13 goals in the last five games and Essendon were only 3-2 in that period. I think he’s developing later than most and will be a solid forward, but it’s always going to be a big ask for him to be the No.1 man.
Harrison Jones is carrying the Bomber fan-base on his back and as we’ve seen in the past with the likes of King and Curnow in recent years, it’s a recipe for disaster having a young forward in his second year of football as your main focal point.
He is going to be a very good footballer and could be one of the best players in the competition in the future, but I’m not going to predict that a second-year player is going to lead his team to the finals.
The other issue is the small forwards. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti had some now public issues regarding fitness last season and even then, he still kicked 34 goals for the season which is an equal personal best and at the age of 28, it’s hard to see him playing much better than that.
He is clearly their best small forward and needs at least that return again this season.
Jake Stringer is a footballing genius. He is one of the most watchable players in the game and he was terrific last season, kicking 41 goals while averaging 16 disposals per game. He played through both the middle and forward line last season, but I’d want him to be 80 per cent inside the forward 50 next year.
(Photo by Rob Blakers/Getty Images)
With the lack of a star key forward, he can provide a contest with his leaping ability and when he’s on song, there’s not a defender that can match him.
Outside of those two, the small forward cupboard is very bare. Will Snelling and Archie Perkins are the other two who I assume will play in those positions, but it’s hard to see them making a huge difference compared to what they did last year.
Prediction
Essendon are going to have to improve on what they did last season again and I still think the issues that confronted them last season will do so again regarding the lack of a key defender who can stop those powerful forwards, the lack of another star inside midfielder to play alongside Parish, and the lack of an even above average key forward.
They are in the bunch fighting for the eight and I could look stupid if the likes of Caldwell, McGrath, and Jones really step up and become some of the league’s best players, but I’ve got too many doubts surrounding those guys to have any confidence they will.
It will be a year of stagnation for the Bombers. They’re going in the right direction, but it’ll take time.
Predicted finish: Ninth.
Phil Maguire
Guest
Bombers are way better than Carlton, St Kilda, Eagles, and Freo. They beat the Dogs last year, ran Melbourne to a couple of goals and should really have beaten Sydney. The addition of McDonagh will free up Langford to play forward where his marking will really hurt the opposition. They could easily have finished top four last year.
Phil Maguire
Guest
In one breath you say McGrath is Essendon’s best player and in another you say you have too many doubts surrounding him to be confident he he can step up and be one of the AFL’s best players. As far as the forward line goes the Bombers could have a real weapon at CHF. If Kaine Baldwin’s knee stands up he’s got the talent, size and strength to dominate at just 19 years of age. I expect Waterman to have a good season and Smith by reports has been tearing up the track. Bomber fans have every reason it be optimistic.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
I mean the AFL have had a bone to pick with Essendon for decades. Take the supplements saga for example both Melbourne and Hawthorn were implicated in the same report filed by the Australian federal police yet they didn’t cop any scrutiny the only reason Essendon did was they could financially handle the fines the other clubs couldn’t
George Apps
Roar Rookie
What do you mean "have it out" for Essendon? Does the saying "have it in for them" make sense?
Hammond Jeff
Roar Rookie
Thanks William, Your assessment is very realistic and probably fairly close to the likely 1st Round team, although there are question marks on Tippa's fitness and will he be ready. There are a number of players on a possible Emergency List or a Watch and See List who could surprise and take the place of players in your team. TO WATCH LIST: Smith, Baldwin, Francis, Durham, McDonagh, Lord, and Ham. I can't see anyone else challenging early in the season but later in the year perhaps Reid, Hurley and Fejo (if recruited). The one to watch imo is Baldwin. If he fires in the pre-season and his knees hold out, he could make the difference in the Forward half that could propel the Bombers into a top 6 position.
DavidT62
Guest
Been watching the Bombers closely for 50 years and this is the best squad they have put on the field since 1998. Agree they need a quality key forward which will come via trade in 2023. However, the potential is clearly there and despite a tougher fixture list, this will be easily counter balanced by many of the tougher games being played in Melb. Remember, the Dons played 11 games away from Melb last year
Teeko
Roar Rookie
The reality is that most teams will NOT beat all of the same teams from one season in the following one. Take Melbourne for instance - they are the premiers and only lost four games for the entire season. Three of those losses were to teams they beat the previous year. It is extremely unlikely that Carlton will simply beat all those teams again like in your hypothetical. From your 2020 wins, you lost to Cats, North, Bulldogs, Suns and Swans in 2021. 'The Bombers have exciting youngsters with upside that will see natural improvement – so do Carlton.' - you might have. But they are not on the same level as Essendon's young players in my opinion (and most people). 'The Bombers had some injury issues in 2021 – Carlton had more injury issues.' Marchbank getting back to full fitness and playing out a full season would just be a bonus at this point. If Curnow is now fit and ready to fire as you say it will definitely help, but not enough to catch up to teams like Essendon, even with the easier draw. Here are some injury comparisons from 2021. I listed the games they played rather than missed as it was quicker: de koning 13 - draper 13 stocker 17 - langford 17 silvagni 15 - jones 16 curnow 4 - caldwell 3 martin 11 - shiel 8 williams 14 - stewart 17 marchbank 0 - hurley 0 Carlton had a few more injuries to players like Fisher/Cuningham and Docherty. I don't think Cuningham or Docherty will start early in the season but I could be wrong.
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
But he doesn't duck. Draper shouldn't swing his arm into the back of his head and he wouldn't give away free kicks, the big dope.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
I mean underwhelming in that even with the most flagrantly biased umpiring the bulldogs still can’t win
Macca
Roar Rookie
I am not assuming they will, just pointing out that if they did with the 2022 they would finish on 10 wins which is the same as the Bombers if they beat the saem teams as 2021 so there isn’t the need for “significant improvement”, even though there is significant improvement. So when you take into account the relative draws and that; The Bombers have exciting youngsters with upside that will see natural improvement – so do Carlton. The Bombers had some injury issues in 2021 – Carlton had more injury issues. Carlton recruited 2 quality mids that will improve their best 22 immediately – Essendon didn’t. It doesn’t become hard to see Carlton overtaking the Bombers, especially if Voss brings a better game style. As for Curnow (and Marchbank) there is no reason why he won’t have a big impact in 2022 he has been training for over 12 months without issue and performed well (improving each week) in the last 4 of 2021, if you want to assume he won’t play I could just as easily assume Stringer won’t either. Oh and you didn’t say home many games those 5 players missed in 2021?
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Well if he doesn’t duck then he won’t have to worry
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Charlie you must have a dart board with a print of Weightman front & centre, whoops duck for cover :silly:
Chanon
Roar Rookie
?
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Luv it Macca prod the enemy & then later on give them hell. I suspect your craving for revenge is mouth watering :stoked:
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Well we can speculate but we have no idea, teams at the bottom could be world beaters & the teams you mentioned could all bottom out in 22’. Never quite understand the misgivings of who we play being a detriment. As a dog supporter l want to play the best that way you get to find out where your own team belongs in the pecking order. Essendon supporter’s should be grateful for a hard draw to sulk means they are mediocre :laughing:
Naughty's Headband
Roar Rookie
Ahh, so by "underwhelming" you meant "they will be underwhelming in the future"? It was a prediction?
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Before they were summarily smashed in said grand final. There aren’t a lot of teams that are able to back it up after being pulverised on the biggest stage
berrlins
Roar Pro
In the first three rounds The dons have three of last years top 4 straight of the bat, that is as brutal as it gets, the only saving grace is they're all being played in Melbourne, and they finish the season with the Giants, Port and Richmond, I don't think they'll get any blessing out of that.
Teeko
Roar Rookie
But you can’t just assume that Carlton are going to beat the same teams again. They were inconsistent and lost to the wooden spooners by nearly 40 points and GC when they were in a terrible rut. On their bad days Carlton could lose to anyone , and on their best they couldn’t beat anyone above 8th. Bombers have plenty of potential upside due to quality developing players. I rate their young players such as Draper, Perkins, Cox, Jones, Caldwell, Reid and Hobbs very highly. They have played 20 games or less, and I think look significantly better than the equivalent developing Carlton players. Of course some are purely potential at this point, but all highly rated kids. Essendon started slowly, and they improved a lot as the season progressed. It took them time to learn the new game plan etc. Which may very well happen to the Blues with the new coaching panel. You may be right in having more upside when it comes to injured players, but Curnow has played 15 games the past three seasons (yes I’m aware he played the last four games) and Marchbank none the past two. Pretty sure Docherty won’t be there round one either. Carlton do have some injury prone players unfortunately.
Macca
Roar Rookie
You are missing the point, Carlton (who adding clear midfield talent have definite improved even without players returning from injury) only need to be more consistent at their existing best and beat the teams they beat in 2021 to get to 10 wins, the Bombers (who didn’t add to their existing list anyone of note) need to improve to get more than10 wins based on who they beat last year. That as I said long ago gives the Blues more scope for adding wins. As for players who are natural small forwards, Durdin is clearly a natural, Honey did look great in his 4 games and Owies averaged more than a goal a game despite a drop off in form. Fisher plays more a high forward along with Martin who played 21 games between them. Essendon do have injuries but you list 5 best 22 players (how many games total did they miss), I would have Curnow, Martin, Williams, Fisher, TDK, one of Marchbank or Kemp (possibly McGovern) as the third tall defender and Docherty all in our best 22 so again more room for improvement from the Blues.