I have just come out of my COVID isolation period.
I wasn’t ready to be infected. I had nothing to read. I had to rely on my kid’s school English novel, The Catcher in the Rye. I guess it could have been worse, it could have been As I Lay Dying.
So I had plenty of time to think. And one of the things I was thinking about is what is going to happen to the 2022 AFL season.
The federal and state governments have implemented their ‘let it rip’ strategy. COVID infections on the east coast and in Adelaide have exploded.
A third of the people being tested are positive. And not everybody can get a test. 100,000 infections per day is not an unreasonable figure.
There has been no response by the AFL organisation, even the ones that aren’t currently isolating.
So what is going to happen to this season?
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Unlike the odd player or two catching COVID in the last few years, with the omicron strain being highly infectioness, there will be half a dozen team members or even whole teams infected.
There will be multiple game cancellations while the players isolate. And each occurrence will mean two weeks: one for the isolation and the next for the players to recover.
The first thing that will happen is the home-and-away season will be made 17 rounds. Each team plays every other team once.
The second thing that will happen is the AFL will advocate reduced quarter times back to 16 minutes.
Damien Hardwick and 72 per cent of The Roar commenters will scream and say no way. Then after careful consultation, the AFL will implement it.
The third thing that will happen is there will be a six-week period before the finals to finish the postponed home-and-away matches.
This may even be extended longer. A November grand final could be a possibility.
How do you solve the problem of Western Australia?
Two things may happen with the isolation state. One is they are able to stave off COVID infection. The other is, omicron COVID will get in and quickly spread through the community.
I am picking the second option at around the same time as the footy season starts.
But the outcome is probably the same. WA won’t let the eastern teams in to quarantine and play. So a WA hub is out.
In any case, there are not enough grounds to play on. The Eagles and the Dockers will hit the road. And this will torpedo both their chances of making the eight.
The Jack Darling anti-vaccination debacle can only further ensure a wasted season for the Eagles.
(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
There is a possibility that there will be a hub in Melbourne. This would be the best way to avoid wholesale infection.
I don’t think the AFL have the resolve or the money to implement this. I think the Adelaide, Hobart, Launceston, Geelong, Melbourne, Sydney, Gold Coast and Brisbane grounds will be utilised.
The AFL will save on teams’ relocation and isolation (apart from the WA teams).
At the moment, it is looking like some crowds will probably be allowed. I suspect it will be 50 per cent capacity with fully vaccinated fans.
This shouldn’t be too much of an issue for Greater Western Sydney and the Gold Coast Suns.
Masks look certain be compulsory. Watching games on television will remain restriction free (apart from the Foxtel and Kayo games).
Apart from the two WA teams, this season should be a lot fairer than in 2020 and 2021.
The Giants and Swans – the wandering minstrels – will be able to sleep in their own beds with their wife and kids.
That is not say it will be fair. But the unfairness will be completely random. It will come down to who gets infected and when.
My feeling is that the top four teams have been a level above the rest of the league and will remain so.
The winner will come down to the omicron factor.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Sorry Chris, I missed your post. I was thinking Melbourne, Scraggers, Cats and Power. I thought that Brisbane was to inconsistent last year. I could only see Richmond if they have a new game plan and Lynch steps up. So no. The rest look a bit light. West Coast could have done it with a new game plan. But their migration will kill them.
nics
Roar Rookie
There are towns and there are towns. There's a different feel to Perth compared to eg Singapore, Hong Kong, Seoul or Sydney. Not that that's a bad thing.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Hi Peter, haven’t seen you comment for a while. Happy new year. Yes I think the contenders are as you express. Except maybe the Lions could be chance but maybe lack consistency. I believe the Tigers can get back but need three things. A new game plan. Mentally and physically fit, Dusty. A full forward playing like he is worth $1.5M. WC could come smashing back with a new game plan. But Covid has fixed them up.
M. Rockatansky
Guest
Yeah, the whole argument of McGowan about 80-90% of people need to have 3rd dose before opening is just dumb, the efficacy of the booster shot wanes quickly (4-10 weeks), so the logical (illogical) next step from that is "sorry can't open until 80-90% of people have had the 4th dose". But hang on, once the last people have had 4th dose, the first people to have had it have already waned. Oh no, need 90% fifth dose, hurry!
M. Rockatansky
Guest
McGowan will have to open probably sooner than later, given there is now internal pressure within WA to open given the broken promise and that people don't want to be trapped within forever, plus he's burnt a lot of political capital with the backflip and it would be plainly ridiculous to keep the borders closed once the Omicron cases explode in WA. Unless he just wants to keep the dirty eastern staters out.
M. Rockatansky
Guest
2 million people is a pretty large town, suggests Melbourne and Sydney are really, really large towns
Jakarta Fan
Roar Rookie
I disagree with you Yattuzzi. If it was the Delta, Alpha or Beta strains you would be right, but it's not. The Omicron strain is destroying Covid's capacity to disrupt the season. The symptoms are not much worse than a common cold. The recovery rate is short. Look at Glen Maxwell. He was down with covid for a week and came back and made 154 n.o. That's the reality of what Omicron is doing. Yes, we will have infections. Yes, some players will miss a game or two, but Covid will be endemic by April and no longer a pandemic. This is what global data is showing. This is what the science is showing. So let's get on with the football and put Covid back in its place!
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Good read thanks Yattz. A shame if the virus has too big a say but quite possible. Otherwise are seeing the brash young contenders as Melbourne, Dogs, Lions? Can Port go another level? Do the Cats find that last piece? Tigers may not be all done and dusted either.
nics
Roar Rookie
As you say, the proof is in the pudding. Shutting the borders has bought time for the vaccination rate to go up, but rumours are the health system will be tested by a surge. There's lots of talk about additional funding and beds but staff shortages apparently remain (perversely due to the closed border). Could the Premier have done more, and would the opposition have done any differently? I'm pessimistic either way but hope I'm wrong.
Macca
Roar Rookie
I didn't think you were - I was just offering a counter opinion.
Macca
Roar Rookie
"but there is going to be an uptick in cases during the height of the afl season" Maybe but there will also be significantly more people, with natural immunity, vaccinated and boosted. The more important question is even with a seasonal uptick what will be the governmental and AFL response? With likely more than 90% of the entire population vaccinated by early in the season will the response still be lock everything down or will it be the same as an influenza outbreak?
Macca
Roar Rookie
I suspected the claim was false (given as the human race develops immunity from exposure surely the virus would have to become more aggressive if anything to survive) but couldn't be bothered with the research. Thanks Richie!
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Eh I wouldn’t if I was dom. Just tell them laissez faire time to sink or swim. Like obviously help small business but anything that has too much in revenue can get told to stick it where the sun don’t shine
Aransan
Roar Rookie
No, it was business, business, business. No masks, no QR codes. The self imposed lockdown was the last thing they expected and now business wants compensation for Perrottet giving them what they wanted.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Yeah but that’s precisely the problem they opened up for political reasons not because it was the sensible decision to make
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Joe, my advice, do everything you can to avoid catching it. I have had my third shot, but probably on the day I got infected. I still have splitting headaches some morning and a throat like I have just drunk scalding soup and it’s about three weeks ago that I caught it. I still sometimes sleep 12 hours at night. Vaccinated people do and will die.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
The additional time with closed borders will enable WA to increase their rate of vaccination and especially boosters. This was the great mistake in Australia before Xmas, I believe we did have to open up but only with proper planning — bringing boosters forward, maximising capacity to do vaccinations, ample supplies of RATs, no reductions in restrictions. The fact that the reductions had to be quickly reversed demonstrates the mistakes. This is not written with hindsight, this was obvious at the time. It was as though a quick decision was made to open up ignoring medical advice and with little planning. I am actually optimistic about the season so long as we can rapidly increase the booster uptake, especially for players.
Chris M
Guest
I'll take it.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
No. Don't push it back. I'm already toey for it to start. Sam Sturt is muscled up, Brennan Cox looks like a monster. Darcy Tucker has added speed to his glorious kick and strength. Heath Chapman has grown more, ripped and healed...let 'em loose!!
Maximus Insight
Guest
It is hard to know where to start in identifying all the wrongness in this article The fact that half the AFL players have had Covid in the last month is actually evidence that this season is less likely to be disrupted significantly. In fact, unlike the 1st, 2nd and 3rd waves, the Omicron wave could hardly have been timed better for the AFL. It is obviously possible that there will be a new variation for which boosters and previous infections grant little immunity, but it is more likely that we will have a largely unaffected season with little by way of crowd restriction and the only the odd game needing to be postponed.