AFL 2022 Radar: 'Bottom four is not just possible, but likely'

You won’t find many teams with more slows on them heading into 2022 than West Coast.

Despite still sitting in seventh with two rounds to go, their late season form in 2021 had a stench about it, losing their last four games of the year to go down without a fight. In fact, if we go back even further, despite entering the bye with a more than respectable 8-5 record, they came home 2-7, and with some ugly losses.

In Round 20, the Eagles were kept to one goal at half-time and ended up losing by 45 points to Collingwood, who finished 17th. Round 21 was at least a respectable loss to Melbourne.

In Round 22, with their season on the line, they let through eight Fremantle goals in the opening term and never mounted a serious challenge. In Round 23, they let Brisbane kick seven in the first quarter and never threatened. This was a team that couldn’t wait for the season to end.

West Coast’s worst loss in the back half of the year was either a 15 goal thumping at the hands of Sydney or the next week at home when only kicking three goals to three-quarter-time again the wooden spooners North.

It all hardly speaks to a team on the up and hitting the next season full of vim and vigour. The prevailing sentiment is the Eagles are too old and too banged up to do anything but slide down the ladder.

What’s new

Not heaps, it has to be said.

Sam Petrevski-Seton has joined West Coast from Carlton, trading a life in Melbourne for a more familiar one in his native Perth surrounds. He never quite became what he promised at the Blues, and was too often an anonymous contributor while every now and then offering a glimpse of something more. It was fitting his last game at Carlton was as an unused sub.

Premiership forward Willie Rioli will be something new, given he hasn’t played since the 2019 elimination final. We’ll see what kind of impact the now-26yo can have.

The Eagles forward-line will have a new look if Jack Darling doesn’t cross over from the dark side, given he’s only missed nine games in the last six years.

Star on the rise

This is where we run into trouble at West Coast. The are *old*, and it’s not easy to see where the next start is coming from, a light to cling onto in dark times.

Tom Cole or Josh Rotham? Both 24, and jobbers. Liam Duggan? 25 now, and a good ordinary player at best. Jack Petrucelle? Not seeing it.

Oscar Allen is clearly the top seed when it comes to the start on the rise at the Eagles. He’ll turn 23 the day before West Coast plays in Round 1, and his time must be now if his team has any chance of contending for finals this year – particularly if the Darling saga continues.

Allen started last year like a house on fire, with 16 goals and 17 contested marks in his first six matches. He only kicked 12 more goals in his remaining 15 games as he battled minor injuries and form fluctuations.

The pre-season hasn’t been incident free for Allen either, meaning he will almost certainly miss the start of the year, so will be trying to have an impact off limited preparation. Hopefully he can show his best at some stage.

Who’s under the pump

West Coast still have 14 premiership players on their list from the 2018 flag, plus Nic Naitanui and Andrew Gaff, and every one of them is under the pump in some way.

The average age of the Eagles top 10 in the B&F last year was north of 27, and that doesn’t include Shannon Hurn, Josh Kennedy, Luke Shuey, Jeremy McGovern and Elliot Yeo.

What does this generation of Eagles players stand for? It appears they are on the edge of a cliff, similar to the Brisbane Lions after 2004, except they at least had three flags to show for it.

Maybe one premiership is enough. They’ll retire heroes in one way or another, given flags are so hard to win. But this group of players had the talent to contend for and win more premierships than they did, and will go down in many minds as unfulfilled talent.

Best-case scenario

The West Coast veterans gather for one last tilt at a flag, but even then you’d be hard pressed to make a convincing case for top four.

Oscar Allen and Jamie Cripps are already missing Round 1, Luke Shuey and Liam Duggan are up against it, and who knows what Jack Darling is going to do. Yeo is more banged up than a 1984 Holden Commodore, and how much longer can Hurn and Kennedy really last.

Maybe they can find their way to 10th or something like it, if other clubs are beset by injuries and they can somehow put together a competitive team. But they’ll still have to take that team on the road 10 weeks out of 22, and that’s not always going to end well for them.

Worst-case scenario

It’s a grim one, but it is certainly on the cards. Bottom four is not just possible, but likely. The Eagles know how to bottom out quickly, if we remember back to 2008 – two years after winning the 2006 premiership, they finished second last with a percentage of 65, just above one of the worst teams of all time in Melbourne.

West Coast also won the wooden spoon in 2010, before rebounding into the top four in 2011. Don’t be surprised, at all, if they plummet all the way.

Best 22
B Shannon Hurn Tom Barrass Tom Cole
HB Joth Rotham Jeremy McGovern Liam Duggan
C Dom Sheed Elliot Yeo Andrew Gaff
HF Jamie Cripps Jack Darling Jack Petrucelle
F Oscar Allen Josh Kennedy Liam Ryan
Foll Nic Naitanui Luke Shuey Tim Kelly
Int Bailey Williams Jack Redden Zac Langdon Sam Petrevski-Seton