AFL 2022 Radar: 'Is this Geelong's last swing for the fences?'

Sustained success is supposed to be a thing of the past in the AFL, given the competition is set up with equalisation measures to prevent it.

Geelong has only missed the finals once since their premiership in 2007. In that 15-year period, they have won three flags from five grand finals, and logged another six top-four finishes. It’s a record that just has to be marvelled at.

Chris Scott won one of those premierships, in his first year as senior coach, and has overseen a decade of competitiveness since. Several times though, the Cats have been dumped from the finals race without ever really threatening to win it all.

In last year’s preliminary final, Geelong got poleaxed by Melbourne to the tune of 83 points. They were also two years older on average than the next oldest finalist, Brisbane, and looked every day of it.

It was hard not to see Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood of five years ago when watching Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver tear them apart. The gap between those two duos, and probably their teams, isn’t getting closer this year.

The Cats know how to get to finals, but ultimately they fall short when playing against the best. They just don’t have that gear that Melbourne now has, and that Richmond had during their dynasty run.

What’s new
Despite calls to start a rebuild and to revitalise with youth, the Geelong list management team have determined that Jonathon Ceglar is the answer to close the gap on the Dees. Whether he is there to play ahead of Rhys Stanley or to swap with him in a ruck/forward role is yet to be seen.

Former Tiger and Crow Tyson Stengle has made an impression over the pre-season, a school of thought consolidated with a handful of goals in a practice match last weekend. He’ll get his chance to own the small forward role inside 50, and certainly has his tricks.

There is also talk of a more attacking game style after sweeping changes, in both personnel and style, to the coaching panel. This is something we often hear from the Geelong camp after their conservative game style gets found out in finals, so we’ll believe it when we see it.

Star on the rise
If we were looking for cheap laughs, anyone under 30 qualifies for star on the rise at Geelong.

If looking a little younger, this is probably the year where we find out if Brandon Parfitt is about to plateau or still has a level or two to rise.

Entering his sixth season, the 23-year-old has taken on more responsibility in the midfield as each year passes, but he’s still behind a long line of older players in that part of the field, like Dangerfield, Selwood, Mitch Duncan, Cam Guthrie, Sam Menegola and Isaac Smith – the average age of that group is 31.

(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Cooper Stephens was a first-round pick in the 2019 draft, but hasn’t sniffed a game at senior level due to continuous injuries. The Cats are excited to unleash the midfield prospect, but he will also have to get a game ahead of the players mentioned above.

Who’s under the pump
Rhys Stanley is always under the pump at Geelong, mostly from Chris Scott, who has never fully trusted him in the heat of finals. Has Ceglar been brought in to play ahead of him?

The Esava Ratugolea experiment must be on its last legs too. Drafted in 2016, he takes the occasional athletic mark and kicks the odd goal, but is a liability the vast majority of the time.

He hasn’t had double figure disposals in his last ten matches, and only had 31 touches total in his last six. His finals series consisted of four kicks, two marks, a goal and eight hit outs. Enough’s enough.

If the Cats do miss the final eight, the list management team at Kardinia Park will be under the biggest pump in the league. The entire club is a fascinating watch.

Best-case scenario
Chris Scott has referenced 2011 in the media in recent weeks, feeling like a new coaching staff has brought new ideas, and that he feels as fresh and excited as he did in his first season.

If an updated game plan is in the offing, similar to what was produced back then, could it lead to a rejuvenation and gunning for the last day in September?

Like last year, 2010 saw the Cats unceremoniously dumped from finals in a prelim, so they’ll be hoping history can repeat.

Jeremey Cameron, Patrick Dangerfield and Mitch Duncan also missed large patches of games last year, and yet a preliminary final was still the result. We seem to say it a lot, but is this Geelong’s last swing for the fences?

Worst-case scenario
In a nutshell, Cameron keeps re-injuring his hamstring, the old guard are finally cooked, Geelong miss the eight and the era is firmly over. And all of this with 13 players aged 30-plus on the list. It would be an ugly position.

You’d suspect the Cats still play finals, given they have so much experience. But the scars from that preliminary final thumping at the hands of Melbourne are gaping.

Yet, it’s easy to forget that a month before finals started, Geelong were the many people’s pick for the flag. And in Round 23 they led the Demons by seven goals at half-time after some scintillating football.

The doubters will pile up, but there’s every chance the Cats keep on keeping on.

Best 22
B: Jed Bews Jake Kolodjashnij Jack Henry
HB: Tom Stewart Mark Blicavs Zach Tuohy
C: Sam Menegola Patrick Dangerfield Isaac Smith
HF: Brad Close Jeremy Cameron Mitch Duncan
F: Tyson Stengle Tom Hawkins Gryan Miers
Foll: Rhys Stanley Joel Selwood Cameron Guthrie
Int: Jon Ceglar Brandon Parfitt Mark O’Connor Tom Atkins