AFL Oracle: Which bottom-five team from last year can surge into finals in 2022?

We’ve had our appetites whetted by a host of practice games and the AAMI Community Series, and now the AFL’s season proper is just days away!

That means only one thing here on The Roar – it’s time for some season previews! Just as we did last year, we’ll be dividing teams up into groups based on where they ended up in 2021, and see who’s on the rise, who’s spiralling downwards, and who should be prepared for more of the same in the new season.

Today, I’ll be taking a look at last year’s bottom five; after that comes the 9-13 bracket (Wednesday), last year’s finals also-rans from 5-8 (Friday), and lastly, the four preliminary finalists (next Tuesday).

Think your team is destined for another long season after finishing near the foot of the ladder in 2021? Think again.

Since the 18-team competition began in 2012, seven out of ten seasons have seen a side that finished in the bottom five claw their way up to make finals – including three years in a row heading into 2022.

Adelaide’s run to the last four in 2012 remains the best finish by a ‘cellar dweller’ from the year before; but teams from Sydney last year, to Brisbane in 2019, to the Western Bulldogs in 2015, have shown that even the grimmest outlooks can sometimes be misleading.

So who’s best placed to continue the trend this season and make a shock run to the finals? Let’s find out.

North Melbourne

18th, 4-1-17, 70.3%
Ins: Callum Coleman-Jones (RIC), Hugh Greenwood (GCS), Jason Horne-Francis, Josh Goater, Paul Curtis, Miller Bergman, Jackson Archer (draft)
Outs: Tom Campbell (STK), Trent Dumont (PA), Robbie Tarrant (RIC), Shaun Atley, Charlie Ham, Connor Menadue, Dom Tyson, Will Walker (del.)

North Melbourne’s wooden-spoon finish in 2021 surprised no one – they were odds-on favourites to claim the ‘gong’, after all – but noticeable improvement towards the back end of the year would have delighted new coach David Noble and fans alike.

Upset wins over West Coast (in Perth, no less) and Carlton late in the season pointed to a bright future, with young guns like Jy Simpkin, Tarryn Thomas, Cameron Zurhaar and Luke Davies-Uniacke really coming into their own.

The addition of number one draft pick Jason Horne-Francis was a foregone conclusion for much of the season, and while expectations should be tempered this year, you can expect the South Australian prodigy to feature prominently in North’s best 22.

While veteran tough nut Ben Cunnington’s season will depend upon his recovery from cancer, and fellow inside mid Jed Anderson remains, at the time of writing, not fully vaccinated, it presents an opportunity for best and fairest winner Simpkin, Davies-Uniacke and Thomas to begin what should be a fruitful centre-square partnership in the years to come.

Concerns remain, though, particularly in getting their developing forward line enough supply to regularly kick a winning score, despite the inclusion of talented tall Callum Coleman-Jones from Richmond. Only Collingwood went inside 50 less than the Kangaroos in 2021, meaning that despite kicking for goal at a remarkably sharp 57.7%, only Gold Coast scored fewer points.

With a still-developing midfield core, a backline now spearheaded by Ben McKay with Robbie Tarrant gone to the Tigers, and Nick Larkey and Coleman-Jones still needing time to mature up front, North fans can expect improvement, but nothing seismic just yet.

Prediction: 16th

Collingwood

17th, 6-16, 85.6%
Ins: Nathan Kreuger (GEE), Patrick Lipinski (WB), Nick Daicos, Arlo Draper, Cooper Murley, Harvey Harrison, Charlie Dean (draft)
Outs: Max Lynch (HAW), Jay Rantall, Brayden Sier, Josh Thomas (del.), Anton Tohill (del.), Levi Greenwood, Mark Keane, Chris Mayne (ret.)

After a turbulent 12 months both on-field and off, Collingwood hit rock bottom in 2021, finishing second-last with only six wins, showing coach and club legend Nathan Buckley the door, and seeing Eddie McGuire’s long tenure as president come to a bitter end.

However, there is still plenty for new coach Craig McRae to work with at the Holden Centre; the Pies’ average losing margin was only 24.56 points, lower even than preliminary finalists Geelong (29) and Port Adelaide (38).

They also were one of only four teams all year to best eventual premiers Melbourne to send Buckley off on a high, before late-season wins under caretaker coach Robert Harvey over Richmond and West Coast proved the black and white, when things click, are still a dangerous opponent.

Moved into the midfield permanently in the second half of the year, Jordan De Goey showed why the Pies have been so keen to overlook his many off-field indiscretions, the latest a New York arrest that casts its shadow on the season to come. From a footballing perspective, it seems as if he is finally ready to ally his game-breaking potential with the consistency needed to become one of the game’s elite – though with De Goey, it’s rarely that simple.

When not injured, Darcy Moore is the obvious heir apparent for West Coast’s Jeremy McGovern as the AFL’s intercept king; indeed, the Magpies finished a respectable 11th for points against. Of greater concern is their forward line, and indeed getting it to them: no team had fewer inside 50s than Collingwood in 2021, while the admirable Brody Mihocek cannot be a long-term spearhead if they want to rise back into contention.

Much of the Pies’ fortunes in 2022 will rest on whether McRae can squeeze one last hurrah out of veterans Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Jeremy Howe. All are on the wrong side of 30, while the former two appear set to finish their careers on the flanks as Taylor Adams and co. take control of the midfield proper; but their elite decision-making and experience will serve a young side well if the cliff isn’t immediately forthcoming.

New recruit Patrick Lipinski should slot straight into the Pies’ midfield rotation, having struggled for opportunity at the Bulldogs; while the wraps on father-son gun Nick Daicos are about as high as they could get.

With a decent injury run, and if someone can step up to be a goalkicking saviour and give Mihocek some help in attack – looking at you, Mason Cox – then the Pies could easily surprise many and make a run back to the brink of finals this season.

Prediction: 8th

Gold Coast Suns

16th, 7-15, 76.8%
Ins: Levi Casboult (CAR), Mabior Chol (RIC), Charlie Constable (GEE), Mac Andrew, Sandy Brock, Bodhi Uwland (draft), James Tsitas (supp.)
Outs: Will Brodie (FRE), Hugh Greenwood (NM), Aiden Fyfe, Luke Towey (del.), Jarrod Harbrow, Jack Hombsch, Jordan Murdoch, Zac Smith, Jacob Townsend (ret.)

Any chance Gold Coast had of rising up the ladder in 2022 was dealt a hammer blow when Ben King’s knee gave way five weeks out from the start of the home-and-away season. If ever a team couldn’t afford to lose their spearhead, it’s the one which has finished nine of its ten seasons to date in the bottom five.

The young key forward, whose 47-goal haul in a struggling team in 2021 was nothing short of outstanding, looms as being all but impossible to replace: the likes of Josh Corbett, Chris Burgess and new recruit Levi Casboult simply aren’t in the same class range.

It’s a disastrous loss because despite the annual predictions of doom and gloom, the Suns actually looked like they had the structure of a competent AFL side heading into this year. Touk Miller emerged into a genuine star of the game last season – and has been rewarded with the captaincy – while top picks Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson were set to enter their third years at the top level having already shown good signs aplenty.

Throw in top ruckman and co-captain Jarrod Witts returning from a knee injury that derailed his – and his team’s – season in the early rounds, and the Suns’ rank of last in total hitouts and fifth-last for clearances in 2021 would undoubtedly had improved.

Defence hasn’t been an issue under coach Stuart Dew for the last few years: the Suns ranked a respectable 11th for points against from a defence led by the dependable Sam Collins. But with no King, their scoring woes, already the most impotent side in the competition in 2021, will only become more profound.

With Alastair Clarkson hovering in the background, and the constant prospect of AFL intervention should the Suns’ struggles continue, it’s hard to see how Dew can keep his, or his team’s, heads above water without King.

Prediction: 18th

Adelaide

15th, 7-15, 82.0%
Ins: Josh Rachele, Jake Soligo, Zac Taylor, Luke Nankervis (draft).
Outs: Jake Kelly (ESS), Tyson Stengle (GEE), Ronin O’Connor (del.), Tom Lynch, David Mackay, Daniel Talia (ret.)

After starting season 2021 in a blaze with three wins from their first four games, the rest of the year saw Adelaide crash back down to earth. Just four more victories, twin defeats to crosstown rivals Port Adelaide in the Showdown and Taylor Walker’s infamous racism scandal made it another difficult campaign for Crows fans to sit through.

Matthew Nicks’ team has continued their youth-first list management policy, with veterans Tom Lynch, David Mackay and Daniel Talia all shown the door and no readymade replacements traded in.

Draftees Josh Rachele, Jake Soligo and Zac Taylor have all shown signs at junior level to have fans excited for the future, but will all need time and opportunity to acclimatise to the AFL.

Chief among concerns for the Crows in the short term is that the team’s best players remain essentially as they were before Nicks took over at the end of 2019. Best and fairest winner Rory Laird’s move to the midfield was a masterstroke, while Walker was in All-Australian form before he was found to have racially abused SANFL player Robbie Young; but 25-year old Tom Doedee was the youngest player in the top seven of their B&F, indicating their next generation aren’t quite there yet.

Walker’s haul of 48 goals was nearly double the next-best – mature-aged goalsneak Shane McAdam – and given he’s approaching 32 years old (and suspended until Round 4) a long-term spearhead needs to be found. Darcy Fogarty and Riley Thilthorpe showed glimpses last year, but the latter will need time and the former is rapidly hitting make or break time after five seasons and 41 largely underwhelming games.

Getting the ball is also a concern for the Crows: only Carlton had fewer disposals in 2021. New recruit Jordan Dawson is heralded as one of the best kicks in the game, while Brodie Smith and Paul Seedsman are in the upper echelon as well: but can the inside midfield, especially with Rory Sloane on the decline, get the footy to them enough?

Progress isn’t always linear, and Adelaide might have to stagnate, or even go backwards, before they can begin the climb back up the ladder. Whether the board will have the patience to stick fat with Nicks should that occur is, of course, another matter entirely.

Prediction: 17th

Hawthorn

14th, 7-2-13, 85.2%
Ins: Max Lynch (COL), Josh Ward, Sam Butler, Connor MacDonald, Jai Serong, Ned Long, Fionn O’Hara (draft).
Outs: Jonathon Ceglar (GEE), Tim O’Brien (WB), Keegan Brooksby, James Cousins, Damon Greaves, Ollie Hanrahan, Michael Hartley, Harrison Pepper (del.), Shaun Burgoyne, Jonathon Patton, Tom Scully (ret.)

The favourite to claim the wooden spoon, the team with virtually no one in the ideal 25-27 age bracket, the club that ousted its legendary coach in disastrous circumstances then put virtually all its stars on the market at the end of last year: yep, expectations are pretty dire for Hawthorn in 2022.

However, things might not be as grim as many seem to think. Despite all the infighting, angst and Jeff Kennett-ing going on behind the scenes, the end of 2021 was quite fruitful for the Hawks. Of their last six games, they won three, drew two and lost only one, in the process knocking over an eventual top-four finisher in Brisbane and taking six of eight points off the two grand finalists in Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs.

Interestingly, all but the draw against Melbourne came after the club had finally put everyone out of their misery and announced that Clarkson would depart come season’s end. Whether the improved results were due to new coach (and club great) Sam Mitchell taking more of an active role on game day, or Clarko deciding to scrap all his future-first policies and try and win as many games as he could while he was still around we may never know; but it’s clear knowing exactly what the future held was a weight off the players’ minds.

Had Mitchell succeeded in selling off veterans like Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O’Meara, Chad Wingard and Jack Gunston, all of whom were floated as trade bait in the off-season, then a last-placed finish would have been at even shorter odds. But short of packing them off to the VFL and playing unproven kids in their place, the new coach has virtually no choice but to back them in – and all are good enough players at their best to be playing regular finals footy.

Re-naming Ben McEvoy as captain was another bold move by Mitchell, with the ruckman reportedly one of Clarkson’s strongest allies near the end, but also showed that the 2008 premiership skipper still sees the value in experience at the helm.

On paper, the Hawks show some similarities to the Bulldogs in 2015, who made a stunning rise into the finals under new coach Luke Beveridge despite an apparently limited list. Both boasted a sprinkling of experience, an array of talented youngsters, and precious little in the middle; if the Dogs could make it work so spectacularly, why not the Hawks?

Future prospects like James Worpel, Dylan Moore and Jack Scrimshaw have already shown encouraging signs aplenty, and if one or two of them can break out into stardom in 2022, then that will be a major boon.

Wingard as a midfielder is another ace in the hole the Hawks possess. Blessed with game-breaking speed and elite decision-making, he averaged nearly 30 touches a game in the final four rounds of the season, notably spending far more time on the ball than usual (only Tom Mitchell attended more centre bounces in that time).

His performance against the Bulldogs in Round 22 was simply outstanding; the Dogs had no answer for his stoppage spread and smarts in close.

Fixing up the defence will be Mitchell’s first prerogative as coach, with the Hawks ranking fourth-last for points conceded. But in Scrimshaw, Changkuoth Jiath and Denver Grainger-Barras, there is still plenty of talent to get the ball out of the danger area… if their midfield is prepared to work hard enough defensively to stop any overlap and they find a way to hold the competition’s power forwards.

It would be a bold move to predict the Hawks to bounce all the way back into the eight – and I’ve already tipped Collingwood to do just that from the bottom five – but there’s every chance the brown and gold army will be singing the song more than a few times this year.

Prediction: 12th