AFL Oracle: Which team stuck in footy’s ‘no man’s land’ can crack the top eight in 2022?

It’s hard to think of a more disparate group of teams than those that finished 2021 from ninth to 13^th on the ladder.

Bound together by the frustration of a finals near-miss, five sides were stuck in the AFL’s version of no man’s land – not good enough to make it to September, but not bad enough to be able to replenish their list with the highest draft picks.

That’s where the similarities end, though. 2021’s crop features two sides that suffered shocking fall from graces after strong 2020s – St Kilda and Richmond. Then, there’s a pair of teams whose long-suffering fans have waited quite long enough for a return to the finals, and are confident of this being the year the drought breaks – Carlton and Fremantle.

Finally, we have West Coast, whose fans would probably be content with simply treading water and beginning the process of replenishing their list after the bottom fell out at the end of 2021.

In part two of my four-part preview series on AFL 2022, I’ll be running the magnifying glass over this band of also-rans to see which side can do what Melbourne did last year, and rise from mid-table mediocrity to the edge of glory.

In case you missed it, here’s my look at last year’s bottom five – and yes, I really did tip Collingwood to make the eight.

Carlton

13^th, 8-14, 88.5%

Ins: Adam Cerra (FRE), George Hewett (SYD), Lewis Young (WB), Jesse Motlop, Domanic Akuei (draft)

Outs: Levi Casboult (GCS), Sam Petrevski-Seton (WCE), Michael Gibbons, Sam Ramsay (del.), Eddie Betts, Liam Jones, Marc Murphy (ret.)

The head coaching job at Carlton might be the most stressful in the AFL.

Fail to deliver results virtually immediately, and you’ll find yourself out on your ear, as David Teague discovered in 2021. Two and a half years into the job, and with hopes of a return to finals crumbling around them, the Blues ensured the Teague Train reached the end of the line, sacking him with a year to run on his contract.

That’s the nature of the club Michael Voss finds himself at – and he’s not done himself too many favours already. An AAMI Community Series win over Melbourne has expectations at fever pitch, despite being without reigning best and fairest winner Sam Walsh for the early rounds with an ankle injury.

Teague’s doom came with his inability to fix the Blues’ woeful defensive structure. An advocate of one-on-one battles, two-way running was an optional extra for Carlton’s midfielders, Walsh excepted, last season; the result was an alarming flood of points against that saw them rank ahead of only North Melbourne, with even a career year from Jacob Weitering not enough to stop the onslaught.

At Port Adelaide last year, Voss helped conduct one of the league’s most miserly defensive units, the Power only behind Melbourne and Geelong for fewest points against in 2021 despite the likes of Tom Jonas and Aliir Aliir being asked to punch above their weight (and height) as key defenders. If anyone can get the Blues firing in defence, it’s Voss.

Their win over the Demons, though, showed a few signs of the old Carlton that, while enough for the win, proves it won’t be an easy transition for Voss to make. Ten goals to four in the first half was the Blues at their best – dominant out of the centre, attacking with all guns blazing, and with forward options out the wazoo. Patrick Cripps’ four-goal haul was also the best sign the captain has shown at least since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic that years of carrying the Blues haven’t taken a career-nullifying toll.

The final term, though, was more concerning. As fatigue set in, the Dees booted five goals to one, including three in a seven-minute stretch to reduce the margin to under a goal and showcase the Blues’ defensive frailty when things go against them. Unable to plug up space in defence and beaten out of the centre, it was Teague’s reign writ small, though the Blues would hold on for the victory.

That’s why, despite the weight of expectation, it might do Blues fans good to temper them, for a year at least. All the pieces are there – a forward line spearheaded by reigning Coleman Medallist Harry McKay is in fine working order, while the midfield bolstered by recruits Adam Cerra and George Hewett and a looming Cripps renaissance is a long-term rival to Melbourne’s competition-leading group – but will take time to gel.

It will be hard to keep a lid on, especially if the Blues can do what they haven’t for a decade and best Richmond in their traditional Round 1 showdown. But instant gratification has set the Blues back repeatedly in years gone by – it might do everyone good to have to wait for success to return to Ikon Park.

Prediction: 9^th

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Richmond

12^th, 9-1-12, 97.9%

Ins: Robbie Tarrant (NM), Josh Gibcus, Tom Brown, Tyler Sonsie, Sam Banks, Judson Clarke (draft)

Outs: Mabior Chol (GCS), Callum Coleman-Jones (NM), Derek Eggmolesse-Smith, Ryan Garthwaite, Patrick Naish (del.), David Astbury, Bachar Houli (ret.)

“This is the way the world ends; not with a bang, but a whimper.” T.S. Eliot might as well have written those words about Richmond in 2021, the three-time premiers’ reign coming to a sudden, crushing end midway through the season.

After treading water through much of the early rounds, most of us thought the real Tigers, much like the real Slim Shady, would soon stand up. But short of the occasional one-off reminder of their former glory – wins over the Western Bulldogs, West Coast and Brisbane all had hallmarks of the Tigers of old – their chances of a premiership threepeat never got off the launching pad.

Injuries wreaked havoc – Dustin Martin’s brutal kidney injury ruled him out for the final five weeks, Toby Nankervis, Dion Prestia, Nick Vlastuin and Kane Lambert all played roughly half the season, and knee soreness left Tom Lynch a shadow of his best despite more often than not fronting up to play.

The Tigers’ famous hunger, the manic intensity that willed them to three flags in four years, also disappeared. After ranking fourth, third and third for tackles in their premiership years of 2017, 2019 and 2020, that figure dropped all the way down to 13^th in 2021. Without that means of turning the ball over, a hallmark to the so-called ‘Richmond way’, their disposals and inside-50 counts both fell to mid-table. The result? A seismic fall from grace.

Injuries are already beginning to bite again to start this season – new co-captain Dylan Grimes has undergone thumb surgery and is in grave doubt for Round 1, while a debilitating hip issue is set to cruel Lambert again. Jack Graham and Lynch are two others who are no certainties to play the early rounds.

The Tigers, though, might prefer that to last year, when the bulk of their blows came throughout the season. In 2019, they endured a nightmarish run of injuries in the early rounds – Alex Rance did a knee in Round 1 and Jack Riewoldt barely played before the bye, to name but a few – only to get virtually all of them back and firing for the second half of the season.

If the Tigers can so much as keep their heads above water in the early rounds, they will be primed to cash in on a favourable draw that sees them leave Melbourne just three times after April. Equally, the so-dubbed ‘three-headed monster’ of Riewoldt, Lynch, and defender-turned-forward Noah Balta in attack will trouble many a quality defence this year, with Balta’s mobility and one-on-one strength a lethal combination.

Most pundits expect the Tigers to return to finals in 2022, and I’m firmly in that boat. But with an ageing list, concerns over some injury-prone key pillars and the inescapable fact that Melbourne have dethroned them as the competition’s premier side, let’s not go too far and expect a return to premiership glory just yet.

Prediction: 7^th

(Photo by Scott Barbour/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Fremantle

11^th, 10-12, 86.5%

Ins: Will Brodie (GCS), Jordan Clark (GEE), Jye Amiss, Neil Erasmus, Matthew Johnson, Eric Benning, Karl Worner (draft)

Outs: Adam Cerra (CAR), Brett Bewley, Reece Conca, Taylin Duman, Stefan Giro, Leno Thomas, Tobe Watson (del.), Stephen Hill, Luke Valente (ret.)

After two years of development under Justin Longmuir, the time has come for Fremantle to return to the finals. No ifs, buts or maybes, a spot in the eight for the first time since their minor premiership in 2015 will be the only acceptable pass mark for the Dockers.

That’s not to say it’s a certainty – far from it. While the signs out of Freo in 2021 were promising – they ended West Coast’s six-year Derby stranglehold and saw Andrew Brayshaw break out into a genuine midfield superstar, among plenty of other things – they were also frustratingly flaky just when it seemed like they’d arrived at last.

Winning just two of ten games against the eventual top eight – one in Round 2 against a pre-renaissance GWS – isn’t the record of a side which deserved to play finals, while a ten-goal loss to ladder neighbours St Kilda in the final rounds was surely their worst performance of the year. An ugly percentage of under 90 per cent told the tale of their regular big losses, with the figure resembling that of bottom-five sides Collingwood and Hawthorn.

While a rung below Brayshaw, the loss of Adam Cerra to Carlton will be tough to replace – though Freo fans will point to his sloppiness by foot – as gut-running midfielders with upside to spare don’t grow on trees. Returning from injury, Darcy Tucker is an option to replace him in the midfield mix, as are new recruits Jordan Clark and Will Brodie, but all will need time to adjust to the Longmuir game plan.

To make the finals, the Dockers desperately need to improve their accuracy in front of goal. Barring sharpshooter Josh Treacy, the club’s efficiency was ghastly in 2021 – despite finishing mid-table for inside 50s and scoring shots, they’d end up in the bottom four for total points, thanks to being the only side to kick more behinds than goals. If Nat Fyfe does indeed spend plenty of time up forward this year, that might not get better, either.

After finishing 15^th for total disposals, Longmuir appeared to move towards a keepings-off style of ball movement in the pre-season – they racked up 139 marks against the Eagles, and showed a willingness to work into space and provide options that should translate well into the real stuff. But with so many other sides around them clamouring to rise up the ladder, I can’t help feeling that it’s not quite Freo’s time just yet.

Give it a year – maybe two – and a Brayshaw and Caleb Serong-led midfield could be the envy of the competition. Their backline, too, has been sound from the moment Longmuir walked through the door. But progress isn’t always linear, and Dockers fans might have to be patient through another year of mid-table mediocrity.

Prediction: 13^th

Andrew Brayshaw of the Dockers kicks the ball during the 2021 AFL Round 20 match between the Fremantle Dockers and the Richmond Tigers at Optus Stadium on August 1, 2021 in Perth, Australia. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

St Kilda

10^th, 10-12, 91.5%

Ins: Tom Campbell (NM), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Mitchito Owens, Marcus Windhager, Oscar Adams, Jack Peris, Josiah Kyle (draft), Jack Hayes, Jarrod Lienert (SSP)

Outs: Luke Dunstan (MEL), Sam Alabakis, Oscar Clavarino, Paul Hunter, Jack Lonie (del.), Jake Carlisle, James Frawley, Shaun McKernan, Dylan Roberton (del.)

When the Saints were bad in 2021, they were bad. After a successful return to finals in 2020, big things were expected of St Kilda over the summer, but a string of injuries to key players effectively dealt their season a crippling blow before it even had the chance to get off the ground.

While their record of 5-8 midway through the season doesn’t look too disastrous, it’s the manner of their defeats that had alarm bells ringing. Half those defeats were by 50 points or more, including a 111-point obliteration by the Western Bulldogs and an insipid 86-point loss to Richmond.

The Saints did get their act together after the bye, the highlights including wins over finals-bound Brisbane and Sydney outfits and holding the Tigers to only two goals to begin the reigning premiers’ fall from grace. But any slim chances of making a late finals run were put to bed with a loss to a struggling Carlton in Round 20 that would have pained their fans almost as much as those horror early defeats.

In virtually every category last year, the Saints were mired in mid-table mediocrity: 11^th for disposals, 12^th for total points, 11^th for clearances, 11^th for inside-50s… you name it. When they were off, though, things got even grimmer – a 32-tackle effort in a humiliating Round 3 loss to a then-winless Essendon was one of the most flaccid performances by any team all season.

Worryingly, 2022 has started in a similar vein to how last year did, especially on the injury front. Already, half-back pair Nick Coffield (knee) and Hunter Clark (shoulder) are out for extended periods, with the former to miss the entire season. Jack Billings’ hamstring injury will rule him out for the first month, and ruckman Paddy Ryder, whose absence destroyed the Saints’ structure last year, is doubtful for the early rounds with a chronic Achilles issue.

The Saints could easily spring a surprise and return to their outstanding 2020 form this year – Jack Steele could well end up the best player in the competition in 12 months’ time, the rest of their midfield looks strong on paper, and Bradley Hill showed signs he’s finally turned the corner in the pre-season drifting from half-back to the wing. All it would take is incremental improvements in most categories, and the removal of those particularly horrifying losses, to get things back on track.

But there are other teams around them in exactly the same boat – Fremantle, the Tigers and Carlton are all looking to take steps forward from behind them, too, while above, only West Coast seem certain to fall. A poor start to the year – and the Saints face Freo and GWS away and Richmond, Port Adelaide and Melbourne at home in the first two months – could once again leave them with too much to do by the time things click.

Prediction: 14^th

(Michael Willson/AFL Photos)

West Coast

9^th, 10-12, 93.2%

Ins: Sam Petrevski-Seton (CAR), Campbell Chesser, Brady Hough, Rhett Bazzo, Jack Williams, Greg Clark (draft), Hugh Dixon (SSP)

Outs: Jarrod Brander (GWS), Brendon Ah Chee, Brayden Ainsworth, Jarrod Cameron, Will Collins, Mark Hutchings, Ben Johnson (del.), Brad Sheppard, Nathan Vardy, Daniel Venables (ret.)

After six consecutive years of finals peaking in a 2018 premiership, things started to go wrong for West Coast in 2021.

While they’d take until Round 22 to fall out of the eight, there were warning signs aplenty leading up to that point – 90-point thrashings to Geelong and Sydney at GMHBA Stadium were nothing short of embarrassing, as were a pair of defeats within a month to last year’s bottom two in North Melbourne and Collingwood. The former was even at their home fortress of Optus Stadium.

Key to the Eagles’ success in recent years has been their dominance at home – any West Coast side worth their salt should be winning enough games in Perth to make qualifying for the finals straightforward. While they still had a winning record last year, it fell to 7-5, including losing four of their last five there after the byes – enough to see them miss finals for the first time since 2014.

Doom and gloom predictions for the Eagles have quickly followed – champion key forward Josh Kennedy’s time is near, intercept king Jeremy McGovern had maybe the worst year of his entire career, and their once-mighty midfield was taken to the cleaners regularly, with only Adelaide and Carlton registering fewer disposals. Only a freakish goalkicking accuracy of 60.5% got them as high on the ladder as ninth.

When you add in the swathe of injuries they’ve already suffered in a nightmarish pre-season – Dom Sheed and top draft pick Campbell Chesser will miss half the season, Luke Shuey and Elliot Yeo are again in the casualty ward, and Jack Darling is… well, we all know what’s been going on with Jack Darling – a bottom four finish appears not only likely, but a formality.

(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

The Eagles will still be a difficult proposition in front of their raucous home fans, and in Nic Naitanui, they have a ruckman still capable of changing games by himself. But with holes opening up all over the ground, this might be a year for Adam Simpson to give in to the rebuild and begin the difficult process of replacing some of his club’s finest ever contributors.

Prediction: 15^th