Why we should be concerned about North Melbourne

2022 has started off horribly for North Melbourne.

Many expected this team to struggle, while others were perhaps more bullish given the improvement shown in the back end of last season.

And while it’s easy to kick a club while it’s down, the eye test indicates that this is a team that has taken a step backwards in the overall development on-field.

Now, coach David Noble has had to deal with key absences that clearly have a larger influence on a team that has to be reliant on key players in important positions.

Ben McKay is yet to play a game at full fitness, Luke Davies-Uniacke and Tarryn Thomas have missed and the latter will be on the sidelines for weeks, Jed Anderson is still trying to find fitness after his late arrival to the club, and Ben Cunnington continues his recovery towards full health.

Even taking this into consideration, the opening few weeks have shown a style that is uninspiring, almost aimless, which is strange given the strides forward North undertook with coach David Noble at the helm for the first time.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

To anyone suggesting that I could perhaps be overreacting, let keep in mind that in the opening three rounds of 2021, the club lost by 52 points to Port Adelaide, 59 points to Gold Coast and 128 points to the Western Bulldogs, yet there were definite signs that provided a more bullish outlook on their season.

Even though North Melbourne have won a game, sneaking over the line against an Eagles team that was more akin to a semi-WAFL All-Stars team, they have all looked just a little more grim to kick off this season.

The ball use has been really bad. They are third last in the competition ahead of the jigsaw Eagles and a Suns team that is the most contested-ball, ‘get it forward at all costs’ club in the competition.

Given North Melbourne’s style isn’t overly contested, this is cause for great concern.

The most uncontested ball-winning teams in the competition are GWS, Richmond and Essendon, all of whom rate in the top four for disposal efficiency.

It’s not like the Kangaroos are applying immense pressure to win back the ball either, ranked 14th for tackles, and they simply don’t win enough of the ball to at least justify making more mistakes, ranked 14th in the statistic too.

In fact, I can’t even attribute the poor quality in disposals to a gung-ho tactic that aims to send the ball forward at all costs, taking the game on and showing some flair. North Melbourne have started the season averaging the second fewest metres gained in the competition.

Maybe I’m putting too much emphasis on the ball use itself, given it’s a part of the game that can be tidied. Quite honestly though, when we’re discussing a team that ranked equal fourth for disposal efficiency in 2021 at 74.2 per cent that has dropped to 70.8 per cent to start the season, concerns are justifiable.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

When I think of the mini-resurgence that saw North Melbourne look like a decent team with plenty of young talent, I thought plenty of the likes of Thomas, Davies-Uniacke and Jy Simpkin through the middle.

Aaron Hall and Jack Ziebell were two of the best rebounding defenders in the league and sped up the ball movement on the counter-attack so significantly that it created space for Nick Larkey and Cameron Zurhaar to thrive.

These are the players that stood out in 2021 that gave hope to this team, particularly when adding Hugh Greenwood, a fit Aidan Corr and the cherry on top, Jason Horne-Francis.

Heading into the season, we knew that the team was capable moving the ball quickly, and hypothetically would improve in clearances, tackling and having even more skill in the forward half.

Instead, we’ve seen the team become far more inefficient and without a clear plan with ball in hand.

We can even ignore the enormous loss to Brisbane, given the first two games were against a Hawthorn team that should’ve been on a similar level, and the Eagles, even though North won the clearance count against the Lions.

North Melbourne tried to play possession footy without the skill to execute and the ability to transport the ball quickly once space opened up.

In fact, unlike a Hawthorn team that has manipulated the opposition beautifully to start the season, the Kangaroos were simply chipping the ball around for the sake of numbers.

The purpose of this sort of style, as the Hawks and peak Eagles have done previously, is to create space to carve up the opposition, yet North Melbourne have been so clearly flat-footed and unskilled that there are more danger signs than appeared even in the historically bad start to 2021.

 (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Some mightn’t know that North Melbourne were a top-four team for goals scored from direct goal assists, accounting for 73.95 per cent of their majors in 2021. Tied in with the disposal efficiency, the team was at least efficient offensively once they could get the ball inside 50, which played a great part in higher hopes for this season.

In the first three games, North Melbourne have scored the fewest points in the league. Yes, that takes into account both the Eagles, and the fact they played the Eagles.

Goal assists have accounted for just 56.63 per cent of their goals, the second worst count in the league.

All of this leaves David Noble with his first true challenge as a senior coach at AFL level.

Even with a couple of key players missing on the longer term, Noble and his staff added enough quality to the group to be far better than how they’re currently playing.

Todd Goldstein’s spot in the team will be a key decision Noble faces. Tristan Xerri has moved ahead in the ruck pecking order, Callum Coleman-Jones was highly sought after and Charlie Comben has a good future ahead of him if he gets his body right. Jacob Edwards is still just 19.

The 33-year-old has been efficient when playing spurts in the ruck but as a forward, he’s hardly a game-changing option.

Goldstein aside though, Noble simply must have his team playing more aggressive, decisive footy.

The turnovers early in his first year in charge could be excused given the club changes and the fact they were trying to move the ball with purpose and had players running hard up the ground to try to offer outlet options.

In year two, a step backward to worse numbers than the start of last season means that concerns are justified.

The exciting run from the back hasn’t been there in the first three weeks and the ability to create scores from any passage of play has decreased dramatically. It’s a miracle Nick Larkey leads the Coleman Medal at this stage.

Perhaps some may suggest it’s too critical of a team some have tipped to claim the wooden spoon.

The way the Kangaroos turned their season around in 2021, though, allowed us to expect more this year.

And with expectation, no matter how much, there is always scope for it to be exceeded, or to leave an underwhelming taste in the mouth.

We should be concerned with North Melbourne’s start to the 2022 season and David Noble has something to prove in order to get his team out of the bottom two teams in the league.