Super Rugby tipping is harder to pick than a broken nose

By Riggers / Roar Rookie

Well another weekend of trans-Tasman encounters and another round of enthralling entertainment.

This obviously with the exception of the Rebels, who despite going up 14-0 early, ended up having a cricket score put on them. And the Force, who were in it for 30 minutes and started chasing.

It is sad to watch the Rebels as they simply don’t have direction. They obviously have some individually talented players, but unfortunately it requires a full squad to perform.

It is interesting to see how the Rebels seem to have a low belief which the Waratahs encountered last year. Winning is a habit, but the Rebels don’t seem to have a plan b or c and plan a, is simply not working.

The Reds also continue to slide. This is more unbelievable considering the overall talent in their squad. At home to the lowest-ranked NZ team, should’ve have given the Reds a relieving win, but again, they can’t string enough phases together and they are not taking advantage of key moments.

The Waratahs secured their first win across the ditch since 2015 and although it was against Moana Pasifika and not a NZ franchise, it will give them confidence.

 

The interesting element for the Waratahs is that these are games that they have found a way to lose over the past four or five years.

The Pasifika are a new team but are a good team. They have been competitive all year and will be a force in the coming two or three seasons.

Can the Waratahs secure two more wins and maybe grab a home final? Let’s dare to dream.

The Brumbies and Chiefs was always the most highly anticipated match of the round and it didn’t fail to impress.

After 27 minutes it was tit for tat rugby. When the Brumbies scored the Chiefs responded with their own points.

Both teams were pretty evenly matched going into the game, and that showed throughout.

But the Brumbies were just so clinical. I wanted the Brumbies to win but thought the depth of this Waikato unit would be to great.

Two wins from Australian teams in the land of the long white cloud was unheard of even 5-6 years ago. I didn’t see it coming.

Sports opinion delivered daily 

   

The Force then took on the mighty Crusaders in Perth who were looking for revenge.

The Force must be one of the hardest teams in the competition to coach against. They simply don’t go away.

They are pests at the breakdown, they have a go from anywhere and are just solid, but you can’t help but feel sorry for them. They have been in pretty much every game this year and that includes the Blues who appear to be unstoppable. Then the Crusaders arrived.

After 27 minutes, the Force are up 8-5 then the Crusaders started to attack with brute force, and the exceptional skill of Richie Mo’unga who has the skill of Carlos Spencer and the measured approach of D Carter.

Yes all of the Crusaders contributed, but his touches are awesome. Unfortunately it meant the game was over by the 60th minute. Especially with silly turnovers at crucial times.

The Force tried chasing the game and as a result, gave away a lot of points. The Saders are just to good in counter attack.

The Aussie teams simply must score early in games to be a chance at the back end of the year. Our neighbours across the Tasman are comfortable when behind on the scoreboard and simply don’t panic because they know they have the points in them.

Harry Hoopert of the Reds (Photo by Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images)

All kiwi teams are fantastic to watch. The skill level is there and their belief is astronomical.

If the Brumbies and the Tahs can secure home finals then they may cause an upset.

The Brumbies in particular, must be contenders but need to finish on the top of the ladder to get the home GF despite their great win.

For mine, the Blues are flying and the Crusaders and the Chiefs have so much more experience in finals footy.

The Brumbies and the Waratahs won’t give them an easy path though. The Reds have to get their belief back and if they can will also be a disruption, but they have the Blues, Pasifika and Crusaders in a tougher run than the Tahs and the Brumbies.

If the Force somehow make the eight, no one will want to play them.

The Drua have a tough task today against the Hurricanes and it would be great to see another victory in NZ from an Aussie conference team. It is a big ask though.

The Crowd Says:

2022-05-11T03:49:33+00:00

jcmasher

Roar Rookie


Nice work Riggers and a good write up. I think the games coming up are going to be fascinating to see how the different teams react to the pressure of trying to get to the level they want. These last 2 games for the Brumbies will be pretty good and I see the Crusaders are back to almost their best team this weekend. Should be a great match if the weather doesn't go to crap

2022-05-08T17:49:46+00:00

Ken Catchpole's Other Leg

Roar Guru


Typo - It should read ‘senior 10’s’

2022-05-08T12:21:49+00:00

Colvin Brown

Roar Guru


Haha :stoked:

2022-05-08T12:14:07+00:00

Ken Catchpole's Other Leg

Roar Guru


Another mandate in WA?

2022-05-08T12:10:15+00:00

Colvin Brown

Roar Guru


I suspect he's coming with a mandate to bring some key players with him.

2022-05-08T10:31:12+00:00

Ken Catchpole's Other Leg

Roar Guru


“ The loss of Tupou and JOC can’t be over stated at the Reds ” Yes Jez, on those two points I picked the Landers. Without evidence, other than his general rugby smarts, I’d like to see Campbell tried at 10. And I’d just like to lead a little hobby horse out of the stable to say, again, senior 20’s should not be relied upon too heavily. It’s good to use a veteran when he’s the best winning playmaker available. But it’s a foolish trust in a vulnerable weathered body. There must always be real, competent 10 options warming up on the sidelines, and in the tiers immediately below. It’s folly not to. I found myself with a strange anger at OConnpr for being so indispensable yet injured. Which is an utterly ridiculous emotion, probably better aimed at those responsible for playmaker development, who haven’t. Just like Larkham’s 2007 World Cup, when the Reds got to the business end of the comp, the 10 went lame. I am firmly at the front of the Quade cheer squad, but Rennie, I dare say and pray will use him sparingly and have capable understudies well rehearsed. Even the ABs needed four 10’s in 2011. “Okay Trigger back in the stable”

2022-05-08T10:27:39+00:00

Paul D

Roar Rookie


Yes I saw. You and Jez both. I had too much faith in the Reds. That’s burnt now. They may be lucky to win again at this rate.

2022-05-08T10:09:21+00:00

Ken Catchpole's Other Leg

Roar Guru


2022-05-08T10:05:49+00:00

Wallabies_Larkham

Roar Rookie


Paul..the force defence is also not good..against both the blues and crusades they let in too many tries in the first half..and that should be concerning as well

2022-05-08T10:02:37+00:00

Wallabies_Larkham

Roar Rookie


TLN..i am curious to see what the new coach Cron will do at the force..they will need to recruit some players..it is either this or they need a new attacking coach..

2022-05-08T10:02:33+00:00

Ken Catchpole's Other Leg

Roar Guru


Don’t like to brag Paul, but…. - Landers, Blues, Tahs, Brums, Saders, Canes were my picks. Did any of them win?

2022-05-08T10:00:40+00:00

cs

Roar Guru


Quite right. My caveat applies to general assessments of the Tahs at this stage. We have a dynamically developing side on our hands and it's hard to know it's ceiling.

2022-05-08T10:00:02+00:00

Wallabies_Larkham

Roar Rookie


Jez..it looks like the reds will lose all their games...they should target to beat Moana P...though Moana P has shown it is quite hard to score a number on them when they play at their home..

2022-05-08T09:54:19+00:00

Wallabies_Larkham

Roar Rookie


"Our neighbours across the Tasman are comfortable when behind on the scoreboard and simply don’t panic because they know they have the points in them.".. Rutgers...the Tahs have shown against the chiefs and Moana P..they have it in them to make a comeback..as for brumbies...i am wondering if they can do it to

2022-05-08T09:23:25+00:00

Brett McKay

Expert


That doesn't change the fact that they won in NZ for the first time since 2015..

2022-05-08T08:50:12+00:00

cs

Roar Guru


My caveat is that we don't yet know how good the Tahs are, as they are a fast developing side. Maybe they won't get much better, maybe not ...

2022-05-08T05:14:00+00:00

Colvin Brown

Roar Guru


"At home to the lowest-ranked NZ team, should’ve have given the Reds a relieving win, but..." Hi Riggers, I don't want to chip at anyone on Roar particularly someone who puts in the challenging effort of authoring an article, but I felt your description of the Highlanders as "the lowest-ranked NZ team" needed some additional context. Yes, the Highlanders at present are the lowest ranked team. But to anyone who has watched them carefully as I have, their win record of 1 from 5 in the NZ side of the comp could easily have been 3 or even up to 4 out of 5 given a bit of luck. They were in with a good chance in every game, but if anything could go wrong it did. Whether loss of top players thru injury at inconvenient times, bad luck with cards (some deserved but some questionable), same with some decisions from match officials. And although I struggle to admit it they also made a number on-field mistakes themselves and some of their team selections raised eyebrows. Even now they're still missing some top players although 3 came back against the Reds which should have been a red flag to Reds supporters. But the Highlanders have always been competitive in the NZ comp and no team can take them lightly. Certainly there was no way a Reds team missing its stars should’ve looked at the Highlanders as anything like any easy target for "a relieving win". A Reds win was always possible particularly at home but to me the odds were 50/50 at best given the list of Reds players unavailable. Haha, now I've got that off my chest thanks for the great article. Just as an aside 3 of out 4 of our astute Roar tipping panel tipped Reds, although they had the disadvantage of making their picks without first seeing the selected teams.

2022-05-08T03:46:39+00:00

Paul D

Roar Rookie


But it’s not impossible. Which in itself is incredible. I agree. 4th spot is the chiefs to lose from here on.

2022-05-08T03:26:07+00:00

jeznez

Roar Guru


G'day Bobby. The loss of Tupou and JOC can't be over stated at the Reds. Their overall field kicking is well behind most teams so Tupou winning scrum penalties gets them out of trouble and brings them field position. JOC's quality of decision making has been outstanding meaning with him there they were capitalising on most chances. Losing those two has given them major issue in controlling territory, their biggest get out of jail card and given them a big drop in strike power. Big challenge for Thorn and the team to turn around but I think the side has options. I'd like to see Stewart back at 10, Paisami into 12 and Petaia back in 15. Flook stays 13 with Jock and Suli on the wings. Just looks a stronger set up to me, than what they've been running. Blues at Eden park isn't getting any easier for them this week but they'll really need to lift.

2022-05-08T02:59:50+00:00

JC

Roar Rookie


:laughing:

More Comments on The Roar

Read more at The Roar