The A-League Men’s two most in-form teams clash in what should be an entertaining affair this Sunday at Coopers Stadium in Adelaide.
Adelaide United and the Central Coast Mariners are on five-game winning streaks that have been highlighted by exciting attacking play as well as dogged defending.
They are two of the most under-resourced clubs in the league and many pundits and fans weren’t expecting either side to be credible title challengers this season due to their reliance on youth.
It may surprise some people to know that Adelaide has a younger squad on average than the Mariners – an average age of 23.97 compared to 24.25. Adelaide have nine players aged between 17 and 19 and the Mariners have 11 between the ages of 20 and 22.
The season’s passing stats of the sides are near identical, but it’s the shooting and goal attempts where the stats start to separate.
Adelaide finished the season as the team with the second most attempts on goal throughout the campaign, highlighted with star player Craig Goodwin finishing first in the ‘most created chances’ category
The side’s reliance on crossing and set pieces has seen a staggering 81 headed attempts at goal – more than double the Mariners.
However, the Mariners are a far more clinical side – they take fewer shots and convert at a higher ratio, through the predatory instincts of Jason Cummings and co.
(Photo by Ashley Feder/Getty Images)
Adelaide has unfairly been branded as a team known for the dark arts of defending, but the sides are almost even when it comes to tackling, duels and fouls per game. The Mariners average 1.4 yellow cards as opposed to 2.3 for Adelaide.
With Adelaide playing at home, they will instantly be classed as favourites and this is backed up by the betting margins for the game.
Adelaide has never been a happy hunting ground for the Mariners, with only two wins since 2013 – the last was in 2016.
Losing a quarter of the stadium due to reconstruction will lower the noise and intimidation of the crowd, but Coopers Stadium is still one of the most difficult stadiums for interstate sides to visit. Adelaide finished the season with the league’s third best home record.
In terms of ins and outs, there are some fitness concerns for both sides, in particular Adelaide.
Lynchpins of the midfield, Isiais and Juande, are both carrying knocks and are in a race against time to be fit for Sunday while the Mariners will likely be without the underrated Dan Hall and Moresche.
Craig Goodwin is the all-time leader in goals and assists in this fixture and the Mariners will be wise to double team a player many expect to go close to winning the Johnny Warren Medal at season’s end.
(Photo by James Elsby/Getty Images)
Jason Cummings will loom large as the Mariners’ danger man. His unpredictability in and around the box has caused mayhem against all sides since January and helped the Mariners to finish second in goals scored this season with 49.
Adelaide are normally known for their attacking play, but it is the defence that has kept them in the top four for a lot of the season.
The makeshift pairing of the country’s best NPL centre back Lachlan Barr and promising teenager Alexander Popovic has helped the team to the league’s third best rearguard this term.
Both sides have had to deal with their share of player issues as well, with Stefan Mauk and Ben O’Halloran being sold in January and Ruon Tongyik and Oliver Bozanic having personal issues.
The clashes over the past two seasons between the sides have seen multiple controversial refereeing decisions and it would surprise no one to see further flash points in this match.
There is x-factor aplenty with both teams possessing teenagers that have no fear and are able to dribble past opponents at will.
The clubs’ futures look assured as well with Pelligra Group taking over United and Richard Peil on board as chairman and investor for the Mariners.
Adelaide will start as heavy favourites, but the Mariners will be quietly confident of an upset in a contest that sees one side losing their five-game win streak.
At work
Roar Rookie
Just giving into Adelaide Andy's East Coast bias that he likes to go on about :laughing: I also prefer the Sunday afternoon game for viewing, but primetime Saturday night should be the marquee match and the WU v Nix certainly wasn't that.
Garry
Roar Rookie
“Montgomery has gone for Moresche because he is a much better worker than Urena who tends to be lazy.” maybe but very debateable..Id be surprised if Urena doesnt start over Moresche who has never struck me as dangerous whereas the first part of the season its Urena’s instant attack when given the ball which created the best CCM play. I expect Urena was being carried into the finals as a key man.
Garry
Roar Rookie
what east coast bias? I think a FTA game at 4pm on Sunday is a great advert for soccer/football and feels family friendly to me. In fact todays game will be a good appetiser.
Roberto Bettega
Roar Rookie
It certainly is incredible timing that the only two sides who have won their last 5 games meet in a cut-throat final. Adelaide have a bit of a home ground advantage, but geez, the Mariners have a fair bit of quality in attack, with a front third that includes Cummings, Urena and Nkolo. That's some serious firepower, boasting a good combination of physical presence, skill, guile and speed. Does Adelaide rely a bit too much on one man for their goals? Maybe, but the onus is still on the Mariners to shut him down, Both sides also boast quite productive full backs. Should be a good final.
Redcap
Roar Guru
Thanks, secret one. Should be a beauty but I do worry a little about Adelaide's defence holding up under pressure and in a close game. Go the Reds! Just out of interest, are there any NPL Qld players on your radar at the moment, or do you primarily focus on SA?
TheSecretScout
Roar Guru
im not sure if i saw the match, the same you did the story of the last match for me, was how ineffective adelaide were in possession while being super limp in attack. from memory, united had high 50's in possession (im thinking it was 57/58%) which is massive and over a hundred more passes that translated into over 20 shots on goal - but less than a quarter actually being on target mariners probably shaded united for the better chances, but i dont think that score line was unjust - it could've easily been 2-2 or 3-3 i would expect the mariners to shut down adelaide's left side tandem, which is going to leave holes on the right side - that adelaide exploited last time at hindmarsh. the big issue is that, goodwin will likely be double teamed and the passing lanes closed off to cummins - so who exactly is going to step up and grab the game by the scruff of the neck, for either side? perfect chance for the several teenagers who are involved in this match, to steal the spotlight yet again the midfield battle is key, unfortunately mariners might win that without a ball being kicked due to isiais and juande not participating with the main group at training. i am reluctant to give a score prediction atm , until i find out more information on these 2
Franko
Guest
I thought CCM were the better team last time they visited Hindmarsh, N'Kolo outstanding. Won't be surprised for high scoring extra time.
TheSecretScout
Roar Guru
being a mariners fan, you should remember barr was very shaky in that match in adelaide and was directly involved in the goal that the mariners scored - urena and cummins targeted him that match. I think everyone at the club and involved with the players developement, have been absolutely chuffed with his progress. his positioning and reading of the play has dramatically improved and his communication has been excellent with his young partner and goalie behind him. - still has issues with passing, inparticular the long diagonals that centrebacks need to be good at in the modern game. its a good tale of perseverance, almost every single a league club has had a look at him at some point in the past few years - but none had pulled the trigger, it took multiple injuries for united to sign him. people for years have said either south melbournes marco jankovic or lachlan barr is the best NPL centreback speaking of jankovic, he deserves to be playing professionally - wonderful player who's still in his mid 20s and just like barr hes had multiple a league teams look at him over the years without making an offer
Melange
Guest
Nice write up. I like stories like Lachlan Barrs, called late into a professional set up and finding his feet. I haven't had the time this season to watch many games other than the Mariners but remember you were critical of Barr's defending in one of his earlier games. Has he improved over the season and can you see him as a starting CB next season? Should be a cracking game. COYY!
Brainstrust
Roar Rookie
The big factor is the home advantage for Adelaide United that makes them slight favourites in my book, the Adelaide crowd is the most one eyed in the country, every single decision against Adelaide is met with boohs and howls . Adelaide are the masters in gamesmanship, if the opportunity presents itself and they can go horizontal in the box it will happen. The story of Ibisukis career is his height had him singled out for a European career ahead of time, his heading ability however is poor and never matched his height. Then even in Japan where Josh Kennedy had his success, his scoring record in J-league is poor better in J2. The service he has gotten in crosses has been very good in Adelaide . On the ground Ibusuki is quite good unlike Blackwood, the difference is however Blackwood has the speed and Blackwood is the one missing the ground shots and before that it was Mauk who was having a horror year in finishing. You would think Cummins and Urena would the automatic choices for the starting front two on scoring records, but Montgomery has gone for Moresche because he is a much better worker than Urena who tends to be lazy. Cummins is not as lazy as Urena but neither is he as active as Moresche. Cummins has also become the leader of the team now Bozanic is persona non grata. Cummins has brought some improvement in finishing, but where Mariners have really cashed is with Nkolo who is a huge threat with his speed allowing him to get on the outside of defenders, Hatch is a good finisher when he gets in the area. and the biggest threat of Kuol who has proven super deadly. Adelaide have also got that threat off the bench in Irakuanda. I think Veart is going to target Miller he is hot headed and I think Adelaide may put in a dirty challenge on him just to get him riled up in the hopes of him doing something silly certainly Powell on the other side wont be targeted he is a cool assasin never gets flustered and does all the dirty tackles without needing to be worked up. Miller and Nkolo are the big attacking threats, they will counter Adelaide on that side. Roar showed that the Mariners weakness is Ballard under pressure, Adelaide do have a physical press, their late show of young players could target Steele and Rowles as well.
At work
Roar Rookie
I may agree on this East Coast bias just this one time :happy:
TheSecretScout
Roar Guru
you need to remember the FA is under the impression that a match thats not in the eastern states doesn't rate well in terms of a tv audience i'd love to see the seasons viewing figures, between all 4 clubs in the elimination finals
TheSecretScout
Roar Guru
i thought mariners fans would be some what happy with a statisical comparison of the sides. in particular mentioning how clinical the mariners are in front of goals compared to thier opponents - this clinicalness has been bypassed over by fans and pundits a lot this season when speaking of the mariners
TheSecretScout
Roar Guru
people seem to have very short memories of this fixture. the games played in gosford, also have had some very contentious calls over the past 2 seasons
At work
Roar Rookie
I'm tipping (as in it's a leg of a multi) this game goes to ET, where Adelaide will win it. Hot tip, Phoenix to beat WU, which isn't far fetched considering the dominance Wellington have shown against them. 9 matches played: 7 wins for Nix, 1 draw and 1 win for WU which was the first time they played
At work
Roar Rookie
Can't believe this game isn't the Saturday night match, instead they're going to showcase a 3/4 empty AAMI Park WU home game Ch.10
TheSecretScout
Roar Guru
I've just realised I submitted my draft which I had started in mid April. :unhappy: The stat on adelaide being younger that mariners is wrong. Apologies for that (editors shouldve tripled checked lol) Mariners are the 2nd youngest side in the comp this year, Adelaide are third
Tekkers
Roar Rookie
Nice preview
Full Time NSD
Guest
Should be a great game.
Hudddo
Roar Rookie
Good review Scout!