What if the Bulldogs don't turn things around?

We’re two months into the AFL season and the Western Bulldogs have barely fired a shot.

Optimism breeds expectation and the team has failed to deliver on both fronts this season, having been highly touted following their grand final appearance in 2021.

Conservatively, the consensus opinion would have had the Bulldogs winning at the very least five of their first eight games.

Considering they’ve knocked off a contender in Sydney already, to have tallied just another two wins has been an extreme disappointment.

Yet the majority of us simply assume that the team will come good.

After all, this is a team with unseen levels of midfield depth and a team that held a 19-point lead 12 minutes into the third quarter of the grand final against the Demons.

While it’s not exactly Einstein’s theory of relativity, we all know how dangerous making assumptions can be, meaning we must acknowledge that two months is enough of a sample size to hold concerns around the Bulldogs.

Now, looking at the team’s fixture, the Bulldogs should be 6-6 at their bye and that wouldn’t necessarily require a big turnaround in form to do so.

To actually have an impact on 2022, though, things have to change quickly for the Bulldogs.

(Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

Consider their fixture between Round 16 and Round 21: Brisbane (away), Sydney (away), St Kilda, Melbourne, Geelong (away), and Fremantle. They aren’t playing like a team that can pencil in at least half of these games as wins.

It’s why exploring the flow-on effect of the Bulldogs continuing their current output is a necessity, so we’re not all stuck in the same cycle of hoping and assuming.

Right now, the current iteration of the Bulldogs doesn’t make the top eight.

That sentence alone draws the jeers of some fans. Tim English has been missing for the last couple of matches, Alex Keath hs been missing for a few more and Josh Bruce is only now entering the home stretch of his ACL recovery. Lachie Hunter is taking some personal time from the club.

Marcus Bontempelli has seemingly been playing injured and didn’t play in Round 8 against Port Adelaide.

That performance was exceedingly alarming. It was astounding how little x-factor the Bulldogs possessed against a rejuvenated Port Adelaide midfield yet to fully find their feet. Without the ability to put their skipper in with his natural aura and skill, even Jack Macrae’s best game of the season could barely influence the result.

No player needed to receive a considerable amount of attention, because no player possesses the mix that Bontempelli has. This hasn’t necessarily been much of an issue before given the depth at the Dogs and isn’t worth necessarily overreacting to, but the absence of class was obvious when the support for Macrae didn’t step up.

Quite clearly though, if the Bulldogs are unable to turn things around, then Luke Beveridge will be under an incredible amount of pressure.

The one massive question mark has always been on the team’s defence. Despite all the positives coming out of 2021, including the hater-silencing performances of Zaine Cordy and Ryan Gardner, it still seemed hard to rely on them going forward.

Beveridge prefers to have the team playing help defence to avoid too many one-on-ones, although the aforementioned duo and Alex Keath, none of whom are above average in these situations, produced excellent numbers when under pressure.

Heading into 2022, the Bulldogs didn’t address the issues at all and they’re suffering as a result. Conceding 13 more points per game is rough, but Beveridge hasn’t helped himself at all.

Gardner’s numbers have regressed significantly, but he’s likely suffering from Keath’s absence. Yet this is exactly the issue that places the pressure on Beveridge.

(Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

The recruiting staff didn’t recruit another key defender when there were options available, and the senior coach isn’t creating a tactic that helps his players at all.

Tim O’Brien was meant to be a nice piece to add as an interceptor. Instead, he’s playing centre half back, being exposed to the most one-on-ones of any Bulldog and losing 46.2 per cent of the time – among the very worst in the league – because that’s not his role.

Still, Beveridge has predominately played Cordy forward. Even when Port Adelaide got on top offensively and O’Brien was injured, the likes of Hayden Crozier, Taylor Duryea and Ed Richards were forced to play key defensive roles, with Cordy only moved when the game was over.

It’s all part of the divisive yet affectionate notion of ‘Bevo-ball’ that is fantastic at its best, and horrifying at its worst.

We know that left-field selections are loved by the coach, and the piling of elite midfielders onto flanks is the norm at the Bulldogs.

There’s a lot of movement in any version of the Bulldogs, often week-to-week. Such instability can be so restrictive for players and to expect consistency of a group when that’s the case is to commit to wishful thinking.

In 2022, we’re yet to see the best of Caleb Daniel and Adam Treloar. Tom Liberatore and Josh Dunkley have fought through less centre bounce attendances to play well and even Macrae has had a couple of down games. If anyone can accurately identify their consistent positions, Macrae aside, they’d likely be watching a different game.

The Bulldogs’ opponents are averaging 20 more disposals than last season and operating at 75.1 per cent disposal efficiency, the second highest in the league, up from 73.1 per cent last year.

Beveridge’s players were among the best in terms of forward-half pressure in 2021, averaging 11.2 tackles inside 50. This has dropped to 9.4 in 2022, while marks inside 50 have dropped by 1.4 with the Bulldogs’ focus becoming very focused on high balls and hoping Aaron Naughton will keep dragging down contested marks.

All these trends are indicative of a big step backwards, which is particularly troubling given we’re over a third of the way through the season. That gives power to the idea that the Bulldogs we’re currently watching are the Bulldogs we’ll see in 2022.

Many tipped the club to finish in the top four this season, but that already appears to be out of reach after just eight games.

(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

It leaves the familiar taste of fighting for a top-six or even top-eight finish for Bulldogs fans.

After 2016, the belief is that anything is possible for the club if they just make finals, which ultimately takes us all the way back to the titular question.

The Bulldogs turning things around isn’t this cyclical battle to just make finals and hope for the best.

2016 was magical and extraordinary. It was a dream run that fans will never forget.

Yet it was an exception to the rule. If the Bulldogs don’t turn things around, they might make finals at best. At that point, they might win a final. They probably won’t win four.

There have been absences to personnel, but almost every club experiences that. Hoping to have a fully fit squad playing at their very best in order to buck the trend again shouldn’t be what anyone hangs their hats on, nor uses to suggest a coach should be exempt from pressure.

Beveridge has a lot of credits in the bank with some die-hard Bulldogs fans, who believe they owe their coach everything. He’s a historical figure who’ll forever be one of if not the best coach the club has had. 

But ‘Bevo-ball’ is less palatable when they’re 3-5 and obvious tactical changes aren’t made.

It’s also true that despite the flag, this is his eighth season at the helm and he has never finished in the top four.

A lot of us are still holding out some hope that the Bulldogs will turn things around, but patience is wearing thin.

Another mediocre placing only adds fuel to any argument suggesting the Bulldogs may just be a decent team that has been lucky at times.

There’s a lot to play out this season and the ‘what if’ hanging over Luke Beveridge and the Bulldogs might be the biggest narrative to come out of it by the end of 2022.