Strip back all the off-field drama surrounding Matthew Lodge and concentrate on the player, just the player. He’s a good NRL level prop but not a great one.
Not someone who should command a massive salary on the open market.
It is little wonder that the Broncos are only now making the first tentative steps out of the worst few seasons in the club’s history given the multimillion-dollar long-term deal they threw Lodge’s way.
A contract which was taken on by the Warriors late last season and still had another two more years to run if he had taken up options for 2023 and 2024.
News that Lodge was granted an immediate release by the Warriors last week and is on the lookout for a new NRL club should cause nerves among the other 16 fan bases, including the Dolphins.
Based purely on on-field impact he is not worth any more than the going rate for a first-grade starting front-rower.
Nothing close to what the likes of Payne Haas, James Fisher-Harris and Addin Fonua-Blake are worth.
And then you throw in his NRL judiciary record and surely that’s hail damage on the bonnet for any CEOs kicking the tyres on this highly combustible conveyance.
He joined the Warriors with nine rounds to play last season and of the 19 available matches up until last week, he played in 14 of them. Lodge was banned for two games for a high tackle within a month of joining the Warriors and then after beating a dangerous contact charge at the judiciary to play in the final round, he then sparked a brawl in that game against the Titans, earning a one-game ban.
If not for the NRL wiping the slate for each player’s previous offences when they rushed through their new judiciary system for Round 1, he probably would have been banned another week or two for his dangerous contact charge in Round 8 when he elbowed Corey Harawira-Naera in the head.
To be fair to the forward, who turns 27 next week, he has not stepped out of line off the field since his controversial return to the NRL in 2018 after being deregistered for his infamous rampage in New York City which led to him being imprisoned in the notorious Rikers Island jail three years earlier.
Matt Lodge during his time in Brisbane. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
There were many critics saying he should never have been allowed back after that infamous incident but to give credit where it’s due, he turned his life around to provide for his young family and has not put a foot wrong off the field since getting the green light.
He was highly touted as a young Wests Tiger when he entered first grade in 2014 – that year he also hit the headlines for the wrong reasons when he wrote a four-letter word on his strapping tape in a junior Origin game. For his part in a brawl in that game, Lodge copped a two-game ban but was selected at the end of that year for the Junior Kangaroos.
He’s made 79 NRL appearances since his return four years ago to be nine away from a century. But in that time he has not been mentioned in any credible conversations around being an Origin player so it’s bizarre to say the least that he attracted a top-dollar deal last time around and could end up with another lucrative deal.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Lodge has averaged 113 running metres and 21 tackles per game this season, broke just 18 tackles and made no line breaks across eight games while averaging 47 minutes.
Over the course of his career, he averages 49.1 minutes, 24.9 tackles, 132.5 running metres and 2.8 tackle breaks per game.
That puts him about level with someone like Sharks veteran Aiden Tolman, another long-term prop who never quite cracked the Origin arena. He averages 57.9 minutes, 35.6 tackles, 126.3 running metres and 1.2 tackle breaks.
Or another Blues near-miss in Broncos warhorse Ryan James – 59.7 minutes, 33.8 tackles, 101.9 running metres and 2 tackle breaks per game.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Compare that with Haas, the gold standard for props in 2022, who has racked up splits of 60.7 minutes, 34.7 tackles, 166.2 running metres and 0.9 tackle breaks per outing and those numbers are all tracking upwards.
At some point in your career you are the player who you are going to be. Unless he’s a late bloomer somehow ups his intensity and output in the latter half of his career, the ceiling for Lodge – if he curtails his constant suspensions – appears destined to be in the middle tier of front-rowers who don’t command salaries that could be mistaken for phone numbers.
The Warriors reportedly offered Lodge a three-year extension before Round 1 but he knocked that back. When he recently told the club he would not be taking up the option on his remaining two years, it didn’t take long for the parties to reach the increasingly common “mutual parting of the ways” which is the jargon du jour for image-conscious teams.
For a club that has somehow decided to sign Knights forward Mitch Barnett and Manly utility Dylan Walker despite less than flattering reputations on the field in Barnett’s case and off it, for Walker, then the Warriors have probably dodged a bullet on that front.
It’s better to be lucky than clever sometimes.
The prospect of Lodge joining the Dolphins has been bubbling away behind the scenes for several months given their recruitment chief, Peter O’Sullivan, is his father-in-law and the prop has a close relationship with coach Wayne Bennett from their time together at Brisbane.
If the Dolphins or any other club sign him for a standard mid-level deal he could prove to be decent value over the next few years.
But based on his on-field output and his ongoing propensity for getting suspended, clubs should not be splashing big cash for a player who has failed to reach any great heights or provided value for money throughout his career.
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Gray-Hand
Roar Rookie
Not sure that is true. If the Broncos were prone to overspending, they would have paid Haas way more than he is currently on and they would have kept Fifita. It is important to remember that the game was very different a few years ago. TPJ, Lodge and Fifita were much more effective players under pre covid rules. They were getting paid pretty reasonably based on what the game was like when they signed their contracts prior to the change to the 6 again rule. That was a seismic rule change that could not really have been anticipated.
Paul Suttor
Expert
The Broncos did have a very good crop of young forwards coming thru at the same time - the problem was that they overpaid them, apart from the one actual game-changing talent they had in Payne Haas
Paul Suttor
Expert
You could call that phenomenon "the Pangai effect"
Fraser
Roar Rookie
To even consider him as club captain material for the mighty Broncos says a lot about how poor the club was travelling from a player and managerial perspective. What an absolute catastrophe that would have been.
Gray-Hand
Roar Rookie
10 games out of 12 against finals teams when they were both playing. 5 games against top 4 sides. 4 games out of 9 against finals teams when neither were there. 1 game against a top 4 side. The difference in the quality of opponent is vast. Obviously they did better when they played most of their games against vastly inferior opponents. That is obviously a greater factor than the replacement of two players.
JOHN ALLAN
Guest
Good afternoon Fraser. Lodge was at one stage being considered as captaincy material in Brisbane. For all the work he has done to improve his image that appointment would have been “a PR disaster”.
Don
Roar Rookie
4 of the last 9 games (post Lodge and TPJ) were against sides that made the 8. They had a points differential with Lodge and Pangai of minus 250 points in 15 rounds. Over the last 9 rounds without those 2 they had a differential of plus 1. They scored 8 more points per game and leaked almost 10 less points per game. There’s no doubt that the side benefited by the departure of those guys.
Fraser
Roar Rookie
As a Broncos fan, I was concerned when he was recruited by the club in the first place - but Wayne Bennett does seem to enjoy taken on that rehabilitation role. Apparently he was on something like $85,000 for that first year. Somehow he was then given a contract for 10x that amount with numerous years of player options in his favour! That's the kind of deal you give to a superstar, not a forward who continuously struggles to get back onside and who was an absolute liability during the six-again era. It's not like other clubs were lining up for him either - he's toxic from a marketing perspective. Good luck whichever club ends up with him. I hope they get a fair market deal ($450k max) as there won't be much (if any) competition for his signature.
Nick Maguire
Roar Rookie
"The prospect of Lodge joining the Dolphins has been bubbling away behind the scenes for several months given their recruitment chief, Peter O’Sullivan, is his father-in-law and the prop has a close relationship with coach Wayne Bennett from their time together at Brisbane. "
Nat
Roar Guru
Hi John, the one I would liked to have kept is Fifita but not at $1.2m. I think if you had him in a team like the Broncos have now he would really start to mature. Sitting at the GC as the big dog isn’t doing him any favours. TPJ is the most frustrating prop in the game. He could be the very best but his mental game is well down on where it should be by this stage of his career. Otherwise, Lodge, Joey O, Ese ese have reached all the heights they were ever going to. Mind you, if your fill a team full of ‘high school superstars’ who are they going to learn from? Keep an eye on Jensen, he couldn’t nail a start in NQ for years but he has matured and does a lot of simple things very well.
Gray-Hand
Roar Rookie
A lot of people talk about how the Broncos improved in the second half of 2021, but they never look at their opponents. In the first 12 games of the season (while Lodge was there), the Broncos played 10 games against teams that made the finals. In the second half of the season (13 rounds) they played 5 games against teams that made the finals. They won 3 games in the first half of the season and 4 in the second half. So, yeah … the Broncos results improved after Lodge left, but the quality of opponents fell off a cliff too. Of course they looked better playing against inferior opposition. Lodge only played 6 games in 2020, the season that the Broncos got the wooden spoon. And he played 3 of those games with an undiagnosed broken leg and torn ACL. So he’s not exactly a soft player. In 2019, he got the club award for best forward. Lodge is not the reason that the Broncos had a rough few years. It might he that your opinion of him as a person has influenced your opinion of him as a player.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
The Broncos didn't have a spine either.
Gray-Hand
Roar Rookie
The difference is that the Broncos constructed a foster based a bunch of big young guys who could play a style of football that suits the rules at the time. Then they got the rug pulled out from underneath them. Parramatta had a less specialised forward pack and have carefully selected some larger players who are already able to play well as individuals and alongside the existing pack under the current rules. Also helps having a decent halfback to kick long, a decent hooker to organise and distribute and a good fullback to run the ball back on the first tackle. The Broncos had a lot of problems.
Muzz
Guest
I reckon Uncle Wayne could get great value if he signs Lodge at the right price. The 6 again has changed the speed of the game. I'd think twice before signing the old school big slab of meat style prop.
Tony
Roar Guru
No one wants to play in NZ
Tony
Roar Guru
:laughing:
Don
Roar Rookie
The Broncos forwards effort and overall defence improved last season almost immediately after Lodge and Pangai Junior were released. Seriously, offloading 2 of the highest paid and most sought after forwards in the squad (Payne Haas aside) immediately improved the team significantly. What’s that tell us about what negatives they can bring to a side if allowed? Both of those guys looked for the ball 20m out from the opposition try line for a shot at a try, but when the team needed them to take the ugly run in your own 20, under pressure and likely to get smashed, they left it to others. I wouldn’t have Lodge anywhere near a team. Bennett might be able to do something with him but I don’t think anyone else would be able to.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Many were blaming the 6 again for Manly's woeful start to last season. The Eels deliberately beefed up their team under the old rules and have done well with the extra beef under the new rules.
Gray-Hand
Roar Rookie
His partner’s father is head of recruitment at the Dolphins, I think. That’s where he’s headed.
Gray-Hand
Roar Rookie
The Broncos had an excellent up and coming pack for how the game was in 2019. They were big, heavy, and able to roll over other teams. The six-again rule destroyed them. Their size counted against them and they didn’t have the experience and professionalism to adapt their game to cope with the changes.