The NRL used to trumpet in advertising campaigns the effectiveness of the salary cap.
How the team that won the premiership kept on changing. New champions every year, any club can lift the trophy, that sort of thing.
And for a decent stretch of time, that was the case.
If you take out the 2007 and ‘09 titles that were stripped from the Storm for rorting said salary cap, there were 12 clubs from 17 untainted seasons who got their hands on the ultimate prize.
Compare that with other professional sports around the globe and that’s the kind of diversity that even Ron Burgundy could comprehend.
But over the past six seasons, there has been a sameness about the title contenders. The Storm and Roosters won two titles apiece from 2017-20, Penrith were last year’s premiers and look on track to do so again.
At $2.10 with the bookmakers, the Panthers are the shortest-priced title favourites seven weeks out from the end of the regular season in a long, long time.
If you isolate the competition table to the top six spots, only 10 of the 16 clubs have finished the season in this upper echelon or are currently in this group.
Six clubs are forming a perennial underclass in the NRL – the Dragons, Knights, Tigers, Titans and Warriors and Bulldogs have finished no higher than seventh in this timeframe.
It is no coincidence that those same six teams fill out the bottom of the ladder after 18 rounds and barring a remarkable and unlikely late-season revival, will again be watching the playoffs from afar.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
For the Tigers, their playoff drought stretches back to 2011, which is the same year the Warriors last had a victory in the post-season in their run to the Grand Final – they’ve finished outside the eight every other year apart from a first-round exit four years ago.
The Knights have not won a finals game since 2013 while St George Illawarra have enjoyed just one playoff victory in the past decade.
Gold Coast have a solitary victory over the Warriors in 2010 as their only playoff success since coming into the NRL three years earlier while the Bulldogs at least had five straight years of finals appearances before the Des Hasler era of back-ended contracts came back to bite them from 2017 onwards.
The top six in the past six years
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Storm | Roosters | Storm | Panthers | Storm | Panthers |
| Roosters | Storm | Roosters | Storm | Panthers | Cowboys |
| Broncos | Rabbitohs | Rabbitohs | Eels | Rabbitohs | Sharks |
| Eels | Sharks | Raiders | Roosters | Sea Eagles | Storm |
| Sharks | Broncos | Eels | Raiders | Roosters | Broncos |
| Sea Eagles | Panthers | Sea Eagles | Rabbitohs | Eels | Eels |
The strugglers keep floundering while the leading clubs keep getting stronger.
With the Dolphins entering the NRL next year with no leg up in terms of salary cap allowances and what looks like being a middling roster, they will probably end up among the strugglers for at least their first year or two, perhaps longer.
Melbourne have been in the top six each year since 2017, the Eels have also only missed out once while the Roosters are out of the top group this season for only the second time in a decade.
Penrith and the Rabbitohs (four each) have done consistently well in the past six years along with the Sharks and Sea Eagles (three times apiece). Canberra (twice) and Brisbane (now up to three) were the only other teams to feature in the top six over a five-year stretch before the Cowboys shot up the standings this season.
The rise of the Sharks, Broncos and North Queensland in 2022 has given the top-eight scenario a much-needed breath of fresh air although these three teams are still yet to prove they are legitimate title contenders.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Salary cap theory vs reality
In theory, a salary cap will equalise playing talent across the rosters.
It works in the NRL fantasy leagues but not in reality.
The NRL is a perfect example of why success in professional sport is about much more than who you select to fill out your roster with the allotted money allocated to each club.
In essence, successful clubs have stability and professionalism from top to bottom and most points in between.
These other teams do not, have not, and probably will not for the next few years at least.
Wests Tigers is a disjointed venture
The Tigers have cycled through more coaches than Sid Foggs on the trip from Newcastle to a Grand Final.
Their roster management has been abysmal in recent years with a succession of high-priced recruits failing to live up to expectations.
They at least now seem to have a workable policy of investing in what should be an advantage to them in their massive junior nursery in Campbelltown with the old/young firm of Tim Sheens and Benji Marshall to build a succession plan for the head coach’s role but can anyone see them realistically making the finals in the next couple of years?
Didn’t think so. Which means Marshall will be inheriting a team on the rise but one that hasn’t sniffed the playoffs since he was in his prime in 2011.
Tohu Harris dives over to score a try at Mt Smart Stadium. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
Perpetually gone Warriors
The Warriors are following a similar path.
They’re bringing in an untested coach straight away in Andrew Webster but with Reece Walsh and Euan Aitken following Matt Lodge and Kodi Nikorima in turning their back on a return to Auckland, as well as Chanel Harris-Tavita taking a sabbatical, it’s gonna be tough sledding despite being back on home soil after three long years as nomads.
The club’s only hope of getting back in playoff range is to develop their nation’s youth before the Australian teams come calling with lucrative offers.
Golden era still yet to arrive on Coast
Gold Coast have some hope for the future after prioritising the likes of AJ Brimson, Jayden Campbell, Toby Sexton and Beau Fermor to build a youthful nucleus behind captain Tino Fa’asuamaleaui.
However, they have two main issues to resolve – the uncertainty around coach Justin Holbrook’s position and whether they can add any further quality recruits with David Fifita’s annual seven-figure salary not delivering bang for the megabucks.
The Titans wanted to make a splash by poaching one of the best young prospects in the game from Brisbane but even though Fifita has not been as bad as many people have made out, there’s a reason why clubs don’t splash out that kind of money for edge back-rowers and they’ve learned the lesson the hard way.
David Fifita (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
Dark days for Knights
Newcastle were in a state of severe disrepair after the Nathan Tinkler debacle but they can only blame that reign of terror for so long.
The wealthy Wests Leagues Club taking ownership of the Knights five years ago was meant to ensure the league heartland would have the dollars to compete with the elite.
But the team hit a plateau with Nathan Brown as coach and it looks to have done so at seventh spot for two straight years under Adam O’Brien before falling well off the pace again this season.
Anyone who doubts Kalyn Ponga’s place as one of the NRL’s top talents did not watch the State of Origin series but unless the Knights can attract a top playmaker to bolster their spine, his game-changing ability will go to waste.
Dragons dragging the chain
St George Illawarra’s decade of mediocrity has not gone unnoticed by their fan base but has not been scrutinised as heavily as others.
Similar to the Knights, they achieved much greater financial stability four years ago when WIN TV mogul Bruce Gordon bought the Steelers’ side of the joint venture.
But they have continued to underachieve and the decision to appoint Anthony Griffin as a coach two years ago was short-sighted at the time and has only been made worse since.
Like their fellow strugglers, it’s going to be a slow rebuild in Wollongong with the club’s young talent surrounded by a lot of players who peaked years ago.
Case in point – Griffin said in a recent press conference that he thought veteran forward Josh McGuire could keep playing for another “three, four or five years”. The correct answer should have been McGuire has barely been NRL standard for the past “three, four or five years”. At least when he’s been on the field and not suspended.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Deja vu dogs Canterbury
Of the six perennial strugglers in recent years, Canterbury have the highest immediate upside due to the fact they have Viliame Kikau and Reed Mahoney coming on board in 2023.
However, Bulldogs fans will be forgiven for thinking they have heard it all before. A bigger bunch of new recruits headed by Josh Addo-Carr and Matt Burton was supposed to deliver the turnaround this season.
The club’s two glaring issues are finding a coach and a halfback. Kyle Flanagan has copped plenty of harsh criticism in the past couple of years, much of it over the top.
But on the body of evidence that’s been put forward thus far, he’s yet to prove he can be a top-shelf playmaker and the combination with Burton is simply not working.
Canterbury have continually been linked with Cameron Ciraldo as the coach to dig them out of the mire and they’ve got the resources and roster to potentially pry him away from Penrith.
But the Bulldogs fans are again chowing down on deja vu – the club poached a highly regarded Panthers assistant a couple of years ago in Trent Barrett and are still waiting for their side to record its first winning record since 2016.
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Andrew
Guest
Gus did not hire Trent Barrett. He did say to Trent to not go as it wasn't the right situation for him. Note that he was hired under the previous board.
Clem
Guest
Yep. If you look at player movement in any detail it’s clear the cap doesn’t actually work as advertised at all. There are clubs that haven’t signed an incumbent Origin player in 35 years for example.
Pomoz
Roar Rookie
Spot on Criag. I saw so many called "the next Brandy", "the new MG", the next "Gower". None of them amounted to anything and what did we actually produce? Next to no rep players of note for about 15 years and failure to make the semi finals on multiple occasions. Looking at junior players doing well can give you an illusion of success. You think the future is bright because young "Harry Siejka" or some other shiny star looks great in the lower grades. Then they step up and the work hasn't been done to develop them as they mature and they sink without trace.
criag
Roar Rookie
Re: your last point, yes. Penrith for years did nothing despite having a massive junior nursery. You have to develop players the best way you can given what resources you've been allocated. Many players at the Roosters get their debut there - players that, who knows, may have been lost to the the NRL. BTW, Billy Smith is also a Roosters junior.
criag
Roar Rookie
This is a popular myth, but the Roosters' player roster today and for the past 10-15 years really doesn't reflect that.
criag
Roar Rookie
Very true about the reasons why some clubs continue to flounder, and although there are supporters of those clubs who perceive unfairness and blame outside factors, their fortunes can only be revived by good management and player development (which is easier said than done, of course). Being lucky with injuries is also a factor in success (not to mention being lucky that your team has certain skill sets when the NRL decides to randomly introduce rule changes!). By and large though, although some clubs set very high standards for themselves, the premiership trophy and Grand Final appearances have been shared about pretty well; in the past eight years there have been six different premiers from eight different contenders. And although the sharing about aspect is nice, most have forgotten the main reason for the salary cap was not necessarily to achieve this. It's main goal was to stop administrators over-spending and sending their clubs to the financially to the wall, endangering their club's existence.
steveng
Roar Rookie
It took a long while but Paul, as allot of efforts were put in to get the Bunnies to 2014 but and that is what I'm talking about, as in the last 8 years for a club that had so many talented players within their ranks (that they have let go) they have done ordinary in my opinion. Yes they got close last year but I can't see them doing the same this year, hope I'm VERY wrong but I'm just very realistic and its got nothing to do with losing Reynolds, Bennett or whoever they want to use as an excuse? As the Bunnies have not been run like the Storm or the Roosters etc etc to be in that league. All I can always say is that I have hope and Go You Bunnies :thumbup:
Vivalasvegan
Roar Rookie
Jenny, just back from the UK, Wigan, hotbed of League. Lots of the younger people there are mad keen on Panthers. They like To'o, Yeo, all the daft finger dancing, and of course the success. It made me want to puke! :stoked: :shocked: :sick: Reminds me of that terrible period in EPL when Man U had Beckham, Giggs, Neville Brothers, and success... Couldn't move for new supporters... If I were a Panthers fan I'd be much less a Debbie Downer about the club's future. Looks great to me and it will to a lot of other people, especially kids... My lad even told me he quite liked Luai last week... Not sure where he is living now... ...
Bludger
Guest
Why not create a NRL division 2? Like in English rugby league. They have 30 odd pro clubs in northern England. Imagine what you could do here. You could have a Toowomba, Bathurst, New England club as an example. You could add these Pacific island states also with a second division. At the moment it is an exclusive club.
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
Have to agree with your last point. If Saints had a decent coach over the last 5 years we would have a very good roster. Patrick Herbert was stuck in reserve grade and went elsewhere. Reece Robson went to the Cowboys looking for an opportunity. Luciano Leilua was stuffed around. Tristan Sailor, before his indiscretion was stuffed around. Sullivan can barely get a look in. Sloan has been stuffed around. If we had a coach that had faith in our juniors I'm sure we'd be finals regulars over the last few years
matth
Roar Guru
Walsh was spare - taken. Walker was spare - taken.
Paul Suttor
Expert
dark days indeed - it looked irreparable. It was a miracle they got back into the competition with all the hurdles they had to overcome, let alone become a perennially strong club that won a comp
Paul Suttor
Expert
It’s a trap
The Barry
Roar Guru
Yeah agreed I’m not knocking the Cowboys in the slightest… just the contention that their rise from 15th to 2nd is a cyclic upswing Getting young players coming throwing is critical for all the reasons you’ve outlined plus you’ve got the next wave always coming through, you don’t have to pay overs to retain mid range players
Gibbo
Roar Pro
One thing that can't be discounted is belief. The Cowboys have belief and resilience, instilled in them through the coaching staff but also because the bulk of their younger players are guys from the local area. They have pride and passion to represent the broader North Queensland community. The story of a young bloke like Heilum Luke coming from Cairns to play top flight rep footy is remarkable. Todd Payten has been able to channel that remarkably well. Penrith is similar in the fact that most of their younger players hail from the local area. Where the Warriors struggle is attracting young talent to choose rugby league over the All Blacks. Where the Wests Tigers and to a lesser extent St George-Illawarra struggle, is balancing the joint ventures properly. If Newcastle simply had a coaching staff that could develop young talent rather than taking talented playmakers from other clubs (Ponga, Milford, Gagai, Clune, Clifford, etc.), they'd be reaping the rewards now.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
We are on the same page. I love watching our young lads come through .
Pomoz
Roar Rookie
‘ to provide pathways for local juniors into the professional game’. That's an awesome mission statement. The Cowboys have produced lots of great players in their short history, so they also "walk the walk". The most successful EPL clubs have maintained strong links with the local community even as their international fanbase and player roster has grown. I agree, take that local connection out of the game and all you have are franchise's. I love the Panthers because of watching Fittler and Brandy in the junior grades, growing up before my eyes. Watching players with promise, turn into stars. Take that away and turn it into "this is Freddy, draft pick number seven", and frankly, my enthusiasm for league will diminish significantly.
Pomoz
Roar Rookie
Adam, thanks for the reply. I am referring to sustainable success, not the sugar hit of making the semis in one year. Bennett is focused on assembling a roster and development system to last, not win a grand final in the first five years. He is priming their development system with the best juniors he can find. He has taken several from the Panthers already. I do not share your view on juniors and your dismissal of the Roosters development. You are focused on on where the young players start out. But a young player in u17 St Mary's is nothing without coaching. If the Roosters sign him and he becomes a star, he might have started out a Penrith Junior, but he is a Roosters product and good on them for putting the work in. JFH was signed from NZ. Yeo from Dubbo. The Panthers put the work in to develop them into first graders. In my view, although not local juniors, they are Panther juniors through and through. The Roosters have virtually no juniors in there district. I lived there for 8 years and I barely saw a kid with a Steeden. Contrast that with when I lived in Penrith. Literally playing fields full of kids playing league. They had no choice but to look wider than their own catchment area. The Roosters decided to cast their net wide and try and get the best young players they can and then coach and develop them. Their GF winning team had at least 10 players that debuted with the Roosters. Impressive. I don't know why other teams haven't copied them. St George need to do the same. Look everywhere, find the best youngsters you can. Luckily you have a lot of them in your local districts, unlike the Roosters and Souths. The bit you don't seem to have mastered is the process the Roosters and Storm have down to a tee - turning promising juniors into first graders.
Admiral Ackbar
Guest
Titans will probably be better next season with Booth starting at hooker and Foran in the halves, Campbell might have to move from fullback to halfback like his old man did all those years ago.
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
I have to pull you up on a couple of statements. The Dolphins will not be a success at this stage unless they sign a big name player and I don't think there's any left, certainly none that would go to a brand new club. I can see them finishing bottom 4 for the first couple of seasons. Also the Roosters and Storm don't have juniors. Most are signed from other areas. The Roosters only have Victor Radley as a local junior I believe. The rest are other clubs' juniors. Regarding the Dragons juniors, there needs to be a risk vs reward approach to our juniors. It's a risk bringing them into first grade, but the reward down the track will be immense. At the moment, and for the past decade, the club is too scared to take a punt on our best juniors and they stagnate on reserve grade