The 2026 World Cup format: How it works and what it means for the Socceroos

FIFA has confirmed that the 2026 World Cup, to be held in USA, Mexico and Canada, will be a 48-team tournament and played under a new format that completely transforms the group stages of the event.

Currently the hosts and 31 qualified nations meet to decide the winner, with eight groups of four used to determine the 16 countries that advance to the knockout phase. A simple process of elimination then plays out, with the final two teams meeting in their seventh match to decide who lifts the most famous trophy in world sport.

Yet change is afoot, and 2026 will now not only allow for increased participation from countries traditionally on the fringes of qualification but also see the group stage take on a new look.

In 2026 there will be 16 groups made up of three teams, potentially determined by placing them into three separate and seeded pots and drawing one from Pot A, another from Pot B and a third from Pot C. Such a mechanism will keep the powerhouses clear of each other in the early stages and potentially see Australia as a lower ranked Pot B team or in Pot C as one of the teams certain to face two nations above them in the FIFA world rankings.

After playing against each group opponent, the top two teams from each group will advance to the Round of 32 or first knockout round, effectively removing one guaranteed match and replacing it with an extra round of cut-throat play.

In essence, that ensures that 16 nations will attend the event and play just twice, somewhat disappointing for travelling fans who have grown accustomed to the three-match structure that has made attendance at World Cups a reasonable financial expense.

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In previous tournaments, three matches across somewhere near two weeks of play have kept the majority of nations and their fans interested and hopeful for a solid period, yet there will be a number sent packing rather briskly in 2026, potentially within a week. Should any team open with a heavy loss, they may know even sooner than that, with the chance of qualification via goal difference taken away even if the wins are shared around within the group.

The ramifications for the Socceroos are significant, with the new structure forcing immense changes to the current qualifying process in Asia, where 36 nations will participate in a nine-group round robin before the top two from each group advance to the final 18, where they will then be split into three groups of six.

Effectively, based on current rankings, such a format would see Japan, Australia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Iran, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Oman kept apart at the nine-group phase before being grouped in threes when qualifying moves to the final phase.

Using a similar pot system, Iran, South Korea and Japan would be separated as the three highest ranked teams and Australia’s current ranking of 39 would see them included in Pot B and set to join one of the three above in a battle to finish top two in the group and subsequently earn a direct spot to the World Cup.

Once the six teams that finish in the top two spots across the groups have been removed, all third and fourth-place finishers advance and are split into two groups of three, with the winners of each group taking the final two Asian qualification spots at the tournament. The runners-up in those groups will play off for the opportunity to qualify via the Intercontinental Play-off.

It is somewhat more complex than in years past, yet the eight spots now put aside for nations from the Asian Confederation will have teams like UAE, Iraq and Oman licking their lips at the chance of future qualification. Theoretically it makes the Socceroos’ path to USA/Mexico/Canada an easier one, as well as to future tournaments, yet as Asian football continues to improve and teams like Thailand, Lebanon and Vietnam force their way into the top 100 in the FIFA rankings, that may not always be the case.

It is a massive change from the governing body and one designed to broaden interest around the globe. FIFA appears well aware of the importance of continuing to grow its brand, with women’s football providing a direct path to that and a more globally representative men’s World Cup now also an obvious component in their strategy to do so.

We all knew it was coming and much discussion will now take place around exactly what the new format will bring. One thing that is for certain is that the Socceroos path to the 2026 event looks more than manageable. Although it will rob Australian fans of the pleasure of participation in another intercontinental Playoff, something we all love so much!