The Roar’s NRL expert tips and predictions: Preliminary Finals

Hey Roarers!

Ok, while last weekend’s semi-finals weren’t exactly edge-of-your-seat matches, they were still exciting and brought us closer to the Grand Final.

Let’s recap –

Mary’s Eels showed AJ’s Raiders the door on Friday night, with a 40-4 thumping in front of a packed CommBank Stadium. The ‘Good Eels’ got off the bus before the game and put on a dominating performance proving they mean business.

As expected Parramatta’s big guys were brutal, causing carnage up the middle. Mitchell Moses was cleared to play after suffering a head knock the week before, and was close to perfect as his side progressed to the preliminaries.

Canberra saved their worst until last, producing their biggest loss of the season while hanging up the boots for 2022. They just weren’t up to the challenge against an Eels side desperate to add some silverware to their trophy cabinet.

And while we’re all feeling sorry for AJ, it was wonderful to see how much the win meant to Mary.

On Saturday night, while there was a lot less drama and sin-binnings this time round at Allianz Stadium, the Bunnies once again came out on top with a 38-12 win against the Sharks. In the end, one of the best defensive sides in the competition fell flat, with Cronulla exiting in straight sets after leaking a whopping combined 70 points in both their finals matches.  

Latrell Mitchell was perfect with the boot, but looked to be in cruise control during the match as his teammates convincingly got the job done. Saving it all for this weekend I assume.

Mike, Mary and you legends in The Crowd tipped a perfect 2/2. AJ and Paul each tipped 1/2 – and I’d rather not talk about my tipping thank you very much.

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AJ is still out in front by two on 146, with Paul close behind on 144. The Crowd are in third on 142 with Mary hot on their tail with 141. Mike is in fifth on 130, and I’m helping Cam Smith count his LIV winnings on 113.

(Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)

And then, there were four. Let’s check out what is in store for week three of the finals.

Our first game of the weekend is going to be a beauty. Tonight, we pack our shorts and sandals and make our way up to Townsville for the ‘hotly’ anticipated prelim between the Cowboys and the Eels. The home side will be looking to reach their first grand final since their 2017 loss to the Storm, while the Eels haven’t played in the last game of the season since getting beaten by the same team in 2009.

While Parramatta are coming off a huge win against the Raiders, the Cowboys enjoyed last week off thanks to their win over the Sharks in the first week and will come into this match rested and ready to go.

Todd Payten has named the same side that got the job done against the Sharks, while Tom Opacic has been ruled out for the Eels with a dodgy hammy and replaced by Bailey Simonsson and Bryce Cartwright comes in for Makahesi Makatoa.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Now, we all remember what happened last time these teams met; the Cowboys trounced the Eels 35-4 in sweltering conditions up in Darwin. The temperature in Townsville is expected to be worse, and Parramatta has been training with heaters on this week to prepare. Will that be enough to give them the edge, or will the already climatised Cowboys get the job done in front of a sold-out home crowd?

Then on Saturday night, it’s the grand final rematch we have all been waiting for. The Panthers take on the Rabbitohs at Accor Stadium in what is sure to be an epic battle.

Like the Cowboys, the Panthers come into this match fresh as daisies after their week off thanks to beating the Eels a fortnight ago. The Rabbitohs’ win against the Sharks last week wasn’t not as brutal as their match against the Roosters the weekend before but still would have taken some petrol out of the tank.

Penrith coach Ivan Cleary has named the same side that took on the Cowboys in the last game of the regular season. Just kidding – but how funny would that have been?! The only change from the Panthers squad that beat the Eels is Taylan May who is out suspended for a high shot on Will Penisini, not for all the other stuff.

Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Souths are without the injured Siliva Havili and are still missing the suspended Tom Burgess. Alex Johnston has been named but is still under an injury cloud.

There is no love lost between these two, with the Panthers defeating the Bunnies in last year’s grand final. And while we don’t get to see them go at it again in the GF, seeing them trying to knock the other one out from having the chance this year seems just as good.

Will the Panthers make it three grand finals in a row, or will the Bunnies be too determined to make up for last year’s heartbreak?

I’m going to let Mary lead us off this week.

If you would like to see how you go up against the Experts this round, just remember to get your tips in below by 5:00pm tonight to be counted in The Crowd’s tips.

Good luck with your tipping everyone!

Mary Konstantopoulos

Eels and Panthers

I continue to tip with my heart when it comes to Parramatta through the Finals series. There are a couple of challenges for the Eels this weekend; a well-rested Cowboys team playing a home final in a location where they have dominated at this time of the year… not to mention 30-degree heat. But on their day the Eels can beat any team in the competition and with the form of their halves right now, the Eels can give this a real shake.

I’m being safe and tipping Penrith. Souths can beat Penrith, but everything will need to go right for them on the day. Penrith are relentless and exceptional; I’m expecting them to win.

AJ Mithen

Eels and Panthers

Two weeks to go! Three games to go! And with the people’s team, the Canberra Raiders cheated out of a certain premiership by NRL head office yet again, it’s time to harshly judge the remaining pretenders.

Parramatta will need to blow the Cowboys off the park early if they’re going to hold on for 80 in mid-20 degree humid warmth. I’m not sure they can, but the Cowboys’ defence was most welcoming against Cronulla. Eels have defence but will they have the legs to finish? I’m on the Eels to stagger across the line in a belter of a game.

I really want South Sydney to beat Penrith cos I don’t like the Panthers, but Penrith have been irresistible all season and will continue their finals trend of grinding opponents into a paste and hogging to ball while they do it. Did you know in week one the Panthers put 4 tries on Parra and in their entire finals 2021 series they scored 6? That’s how they’re going to do it this year. The 2022 Panthers more surgical in attack AND attrition grinders too.

Having said all that – the Bunnies have been right in their most recent big games against Penrith and cannot be written off. They’ll need to attack with everything, from everywhere, all the time to keep Penrith off balance. Souths just make too many errors in them to make it stick. 

(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

Mike Meehall Wood

Eels and Panthers

I’m the sort of Celtic fan who bets on Rangers to win Glasgow Derbies: the logic being that if the good guys get up, I’m happy anyway, and if the forces of darkness prevail, at least I’m a little richer.

I backed a Penrith v Cowboys GF when the odds were still good and thus that’s what I would like to happen. I also put my skin in the game for Souths to make the GF when they were rubbish, so I’m happy for them to win too.

With that in mind, I’ll be tipping Parramatta, the only team that can lose me cash, so that I have the solace of being right (at least in a convoluted way) should they go through.

As my Panthers/Cowboys bet requires both to go through, I suppose I’ll have to use the same logic to tip Penrith, as a Panthers-Parra GF is no good to me either.

Paul Suttor

Cowboys and Rabbitohs

The Cowboys are rested and ready to cause Eels fans heartache yet again.
Souths are on a roll and Penrith could pay the price for the majority of their squad only playing once in the past month if it’s close down the stretch.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Danielle Smith

Cowboys and Rabbioths

I have been backing these boys all year, and I think they can go all the way. Parramatta will give them a run for their money, but the heat, the crowd and the talent right across the park will ensure a Cowboys win – with my mate Reece Robson to have a blinder.

Far out, what a hard game to tip! Every day of the week you say Penrith, but for some reason today I just can’t. It’s the Bunnies for me.

James Graham’s tips courtesy of the Bye Round Preview Podcast

The podcast won’t be live until 12pm but here is the code:

North Queensland Cowboys $1.70  v Parramatta Eels $2.20

Friday 7.50pm, Queensland Country Bank Stadium

“This is a fantastic game. This is the one I’m most excited about this, this game, the Cowboys against the Eels. We just keep waiting for the Cowboys to fail. We just think that we’re going to get the Cowboys of last year with the Cowboys around one. That’s the level of performance we keep waiting for. But they keep turning up time and time again. And obviously, they’re at home, they’re going to be incredibly difficult to beat.

That said though, I do fancy the Eels to get the win as I was very impressed with their performance against Canberra.”

Penrith Panthers $1.36 v South Sydney Rabbitohs $3.20

Saturday 7.50pm, Allianz Stadium

“Penrith are just so difficult to break down it’s hard to see a weakness. And look, I don’t know if South Sydney has got that level of performance in them. You’ve got Siliva Havili out, Tom Burgess is still out, so through that middle part of the field, they are going to be vulnerable. Obviously, Cameron Murray  has been huge for them but I just don’t know if they can withstand the onslaught that Penrith are going to bring.”