While it’s impossible to watch NRL these days without a barrage of gambling ads, it’s not just the mug punters who are taking a gamble on the NRL every year.
The clubs themselves all tossed the coin on decisions through the 2022 NRL season. But did they come up winners or did they go bust?
Let’s spin the wheel and look back at each team’s biggest gamble, starting from the bottom of the table.
Wests Tigers
There’s always someone who backs their system with the bookies. They’re convinced that sooner or later it’ll pay off, despite all evidence to the contrary.
The Tigers system is to back Luke Brooks in the halves. With Adam Doueihi looking good at 5/8 in parts of 2021 before injury, the club chased Jackson Hastings, who won the Super League Man of Steel in the halves, to play lock. Because, Luke Brooks is the system and the system will pay off. You know?
But with Doueihi injured for the first half of the season it was Hastings the shining light, and long term 7 Brooks was bumped to 6 to try and find some spark.
Then with Doueihi fit again it was Brooks back to 7. The results never came, and with Hastings then Brooks injured the final halves combo of Doueihi and Jock Madden saw the club winning the wooden spoon.
(Photo by Ashley Feder/Getty Images)
Verdict: putting your money on Brooks being a winner is throwing good money after bad. Time to abandon the system.
New Zealand Warriors
The biggest gamble the Warriors took was staying in Australia during the pandemic and then hoping for some tangible rewards from the NRL once they relocated back to NZ.
Fans from all clubs would have supported the team playing all their remaining games for 2022 in NZ, given they hadn’t played at home for two years.
Fans yes, but clubs giving up home crowds and gate takings? Nope. And the NRL were big on gratitude, or was that platitude?
“Thanks for the sacrifices you made to keep the comp going… but no return favours in scheduling for you. That wouldn’t be fair.”
Verdict: hoping for Vlandys and Abdo to risk gate takings and offending clubs for the sake of a tangible gesture of thanks is backing a rank outsider.
Newcastle Knights
The big bet was placed pre-season. You could hear the cogs turning. “We don’t need Mitchell Pearce. We’ve got Jake Clifford from North Queensland and he’s so good we can pair him with the Dragons backup, Adam Clune. Besides, we have Kalyn Ponga, so, you know, we’re good”.
No. Not good. By mid season Clifford is out and it’s double or nothing on an out of favour Anthony Milford. Which, to be fair, was asking too much of him.
And with Ponga concussed again it was curtains for the Knights.
Verdict: big time fail and with Milford moving on the Knights are looking for loose change behind the sofa to see what they can salvage for next year.
Gold Coast Titans
Time for the kids to shine. With the 24-year-old AJ Brimson the old head amongst the playmakers it was the thrilling Jayden Campbell and the promising Toby Sexton that were going to push the Titans from the fringe of the eight into contenders.
No need for the 28-year-old Jamal Fogarty. And no need for a real dummy half – just shuffle it out to the kids and magic will happen!
Except it didn’t. With Campbell out injured and Brimson shuffling between five eighth and fullback there was no consistency.
The experienced utility Will Smith noped out mid season and by the time the season ended Sexton was well behind Tanah Boyd in the halfback stakes. From the eight to spoon contenders in a season.
Verdict: a punt that backfired spectacularly. For 2023 they’ve gambled on the exact opposite with an elderly Keiran Foran. Feels like they’re chasing losses hard.
AJ-Brimson-Titans (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
In Trent we trust! The reputed c “attacking genius” behind the Penrith Panthers 2020 grand final charge, Trent Barrett, had an inauspicious 2021 with the Bulldogs barely bothering the scorers.
While Barrett was given a pass for 2021 on the basis of not having picked the cattle, 2022 was meant to be his team and his year.
Bringing in premiership players Josh Addo-Carr and Matt Burton to fire the attack, along with throwing a lifeline to attacking weapon (but defensive liability) Matt Dufty, it was time to see the points roll in and the wins tick over.
Ah. No. While Burton was excellent and earned a NSW jersey, Barrett’s “attacking genius” reputation was shredded.
The toothless attack was backed with a paper thin defence and it was curtains for Trent who was gone mid season.
The quality of the team was revealed under interim coach Mick Potter who quickly moved on Dufty, unveiled a gem in moving Jake Averillo to fullback and just letting the team play footy.
And play they did, doubling their points per game and winning as many games in the last 12 rounds as they did in Barrett’s entire time as coach.
Verdict: they were committed to ride the bet made in 2021, but fortunately knew when to fold. They surely wouldn’t double down on an well-regarded assistant coach from Penrith again, would they? Oh yes they would!
Matt Burton, Josh Jackson and Kyle Flanagan of the Bulldogs (Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
Do we really need to revisit this? Not Tom Trbojevic’s season derailing injury. You’d back Tom any season because when he wins he wins big.
We all know the big gamble was the Round 19 ‘rainbow’ jersey. Women in league round. The pride jersey. The lack of communication between head office, coaching staff and players.
The fracturing of the playing group. The captain versus stars rumours. The massive divide between coach and owner. And the loss of every game from that point forward.
Verdict: a bet this bad would make a cricketing body look at the overseas bookies and accusations of match fixing. Just awful.
St George Illawarra Dragons
The Dragons gambled on a mix of young kids (Junior Amone, Jayden Sullivan and Tyrell Sloan) stepping up and providing spark while the really experienced older players (George Burgess, Aaron Woods, Moses Mbye, Andrew McCullough, Tariq Sims, Josh McGuire, Jack Bird and captain Ben Hunt) provided a steadying presence.
Or was that meant to be really older experienced players?
Because writing it down the problem is plain. Not enough youngsters, too many oldies. And then when things got tight the older players continued to be picked while the younger ones didn’t.
So it was all steady and no spark. Sums up their season really.
Verdict: gambled on an imbalanced balance and surprisingly it didn’t work.
Brisbane Broncos
The Broncos biggest signing and biggest question mark was Adam Reynolds. Was he past his best? Could he add direction to this talented but disorganised group of youngsters?
While the late season fade-out took the gloss away, a feature of old legs and immaturity in the supporting cast perhaps, the Broncos were in the hunt right up to the closing rounds.
A revolving cast in the number 6 jersey and almost as many hookers didn’t help. A side bet on Te Maire Martin making a successful return from retirement to solve the side’s fullback woes made for a nice bonus though.
Verdict: looking at how far they’ve come, I’d say winners are grinners.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Canberra Raiders
Picking up Jamal Fogarty from the Gold Coast Titans wasn’t a gamble, it was a necessity. For the Raiders the big gamble was handing over the number 1 jersey. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad had been a solid custodian, although not much of a creator in the backline.
Xavier Savage had seen a couple of games in 2021 and looked exciting but flakey. Going all in on the reported but overused “X factor”, Ricky threw Savage the number 1 and CNK to the reggies.
Verdict: Overall it’s a break even. Savage has about the same creativity as CNK, but with more pace and more errors.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
When favourite son and local legend Adam Reynolds was told he wasn’t getting a long contract, there were plenty of Bunnies fans who thought the club had lost its mind.
When the club let Reynolds go and threw all their eggs in the basket of rookie halfback Lachlan Ilias it was an all or nothing play.
Halfway through the Round 15 match against St George Illawarra the rookie halfback was benched by coach Jason Demetriou and it looked like those eggs were cooked.
But the next week Ilias was back in the seven and continuing to learn.
Jed Cartwright. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
By the time the finals rolled around Ilias was playing with confidence and even a slightly flat Damien Cook couldn’t stop the spine of Ilias, Cody Walker and Latrell Mitchell from racking up the wins.
While a grand final was just out of reach, the fears that the team would flounder without Reynolds turned out to be completely unfounded.
Verdict: the kid is a winner and will be even better next year.
Sydney Roosters
At the start of the season Trent Robinson handed the seven jersey to Luke Keary and told him to take charge. Keary, coming off an ACL reconstruction, was rusty at best.
Halves partner Sam Walker had just come off a stellar debut year leading an injury riddled side to the finals. Now at 6 he looked lost and indecisive.
Unfortunately Keary suffered another bad concussion mid season and as a result Walker shifted back to the 7. With makeshift 5/8 Joey Manu running around being generally involved in anything and Walker back to steering the ship there were questions being asked about Keary’s place in the team.
However when fit he was straight back in, although Robinson stuck with Walker at 7. And then things clicked. The Roosters went from potentially missing the finals to just missing the top 4.
Keary was imperious and nobody was talking about moving him on anymore.
Verdict: Robbo got it wrong, although later had the sense to reverse it.
Melbourne Storm
Melbourne aren’t big gamblers these days. When they take a gamble it’s a small price on unknown or unwanted players, while they’re content to fold when the price gets too high on others.
So is consistently playing this system a gamble at all?
Small investments in Nick Meaney and Xavier Coates were repaid with decent performances, and letting Josh Addo-Carr go isn’t criminal if you can get David Nofoamluma on loan for half the season.
Perhaps the biggest gambles for the Storm were positional. Nelson Asofa-Solomona on an edge was brutal. Meaney at 6 swapping back and forth with Cameron Munster at fullback between defence and attack was puzzling and ineffective.
Verdict: to win big you need to be prepared to lose big. Melbourne aren’t prepared to gamble much, so pretty well broke even.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Parramatta Eels
Everybody: It’d be 100:1 for Brad Arthur to get basically the same team of finals chokers all the way to the grand final!
Arthur: Oh, I’ll take those odds!
Not much had changed in Eels land since 2021, and with last season’s finals fade fresh in the memory, there was little expectation that the end result would change either. Good enough to make the eight then out the back door in week 1 or 2.
Not this time. After a week 1 pounding from the Panthers, the Eels bounced back to smash the Raiders and carried that momentum into a close one against the Cowboys.
The Panthers repeated the week one dose in the grand final to end the dream, but the finals faders tag might have just shaken loose a little.
Verdict: holding his nerve to keep the squad together rather than making significant change was a winning gamble by Arthur.
North Queensland Cowboys
If there’s one thing certain about Todd Payten as a coach it’s that he knows what he wants. And for some reason at the start of the season he wanted an out-of-favour and, frankly, out of form Chad Townsend to be his halfback. But why?
The Sharks had let Townsend meander off mid 2021 and he played an underwhelming handful of games at the Warriors.
The Cowboys had picked up Tom Dearden at a song from the Broncos after he had failed to establish himself and the two halves were seen to be too similar in styles.
Where was the creativity going to come from? Obviously from Scott Drinkwater in the 6 with Origin player Hamiso Tabuia-Fidow having a mortgage on the fullback jersey. Or so we thought.
But Payten knows what he wants. Townsend at 7 and Dearden at 6 was an inspired combination. So much so that Dearden earned an Origin jersey and absolutely deserved it.
Putting Drinkwater away from the defensive line and letting him pick when to be involved was a master stroke. And the reason they could do all that? The Chad.
Organising, kicking, even running if no other option presented. Not necessarily a great half, but a great half for that side.
Verdict: from spoon favourites to top four finish? That’s a win!
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Cronulla Sutherland Sharks
When rookie coach Craig Fitzgibbon took on the club, he wanted Nicho Hynes not only to go from bench utility and fullback to steering the ship at halfback, he wanted Hynes to become the best player in the game.
No pressure.
Wow! What a call from Fitzy.
Hynes took the reins and instantly looked a natural 7. With the pressure off Matt Moylan had a vintage season while Will Kennedy and Blayke Brailey made for a dynamic spine.
Old stagers Dale Finucane and Cameron McInnes locked the middle up tight and it was finals ahoy!
A straight sets exit does point to work yet to be done and perhaps reflects there’s truth in the comments about a soft draw, but hats off to Fitzy for the cards he played in the regular season.
Verdict: big winners with a Dally M to show for it.
Penrith Panthers
One of the hardest things for a premiership club is keeping the team together. Penrith didn’t lose much in quantity at the end of 2021, but they lost quality.
Matt Burton and Kurt Capewell went on to other clubs and also to play Origin in 2022, while Paul Momirovski also departed the starting 13. Tyrone May also went from the 17 but the Panthers were better off without the “qualities” that he provided.
The Panthers solution? Back the kids. Izack Tago and Taylan May slotted straight into the backline. Kurt Falls and Soni Luke had a taste of first grade. Big unit Lindsay Smith showed he’s ready for the big time.
But it wasn’t just the debutants either. Spencer Leniu and Scott Sorensen went from bit players to genuine threats and Liam Martin built on his excellent 2021 to become the best second rower at the club.
Verdict: The production line just keeps churning them out and the with a clean sweep across grades the gamble to back development over recruitment looks like it will pay off for a long time to come.
Special mention: The Dolphins
It’s a Field of Dreams concept. Build it and they will come. I bet everyone will want to play for Wayne Bennett. Get the right coach and the marquee signings will come. In short, it hasn’t happened.
Verdict. Bust. Big time. Some good but aged forwards, some outside backs with a point to prove, and some others that can be best described as “workmanlike”. Not a marquee in sight… or even a hiking tent.
Season 2022. Some punts payed off. Some went bust and some broke even.
What do you think were the biggest gambles for your club in 2022, and where do you see the smart money going in 2023?
Arnab Bhattacharya
Roar Guru
Did by week 1 and he bloody impressed me. Katoa and SOS halves pairings for the fins forever please
mach4
Roar Rookie
Well done the Dogs. Mick Potter as an assistant coach.
Dutski
Roar Guru
Sounds like you’ve made a start on next years article already!
Maxtruck
Roar Rookie
Is it The Knights gamble on Gamble! or Gamble gambles on the Knights!
Dutski
Roar Guru
Cheers Pomoz. Glad you enjoyed it. I think everyone enamoured of Penriths success forget that Gus’s 5 year plan took that and then some. It takes years of work to be an overnight success!
Pomoz
Roar Rookie
Yes it is Dutski. The bloke I feel sorry for is Kimmorley. He was left to deal with the media during a horrendous season finish, all on his own. A rookie coach up to his armpits in it and the GM football is nowhere to be seen and the CEO is also missing. Inspiring leadership eh? The problem with the Tigers is they just want the sugar hit of press releases and pursue instant success. Gus made many mistakes but he always fronted the press when it went pear shaped and he always said it will take five years to be competitive (not win a premiership). Of course, how long it takes depends on where you start and maybe the the Tigers are in better shape than the Panthers were in 2011, but the experiment with Sheens lasted six months and then they are on to plan B. What happens if it has all turned to custard by round ten? Tim's out and Benji starts immediately? Plan C, a plan so cunning it could have been made by a professor of cunning............ Good article by the way, I like the format. You should do it every year and after events like SOO and the World Cup.
3 R M
Roar Rookie
Geez TB they have pigged out enough on us I hope this is the end of it. Our colts side came up pretty well by the end of the season and we have some spots in the top squad, 6 or 8 I think. There are 8 contracted players in the blackhawks side that won the u21s GF against Redcliffe and we will want to keep them you would say.
Dutski
Roar Guru
Good points Pomoz. It's a mess, isn't it?
Pomoz
Roar Rookie
Just on the Tigers, you never mentioned the impact of the coaching decision for 2023. Kimmorley dropped in the deep end with what looks like zero support. The line from Pascoe "Brett was told he could ring anybody any time he needed help", was hint at why the Tigers have been so dreadful for so long. Leadership is more about who has the corner office and the status than it is about how to make the team successful. Let's take the decision to elect Tim Sheens as coach, with a star studded rookie coaching team behind him. If you ask me what the best work Gus Gould has done for the Panthers it was acting as a GM and setting up the football department, development pathways and roster management properly. By all accounts he worked very long hours at the club to do this, so much so it impacted his health. The Tigers tried to emulate this by hiring Tim Sheens as their GM football. His job was to fix the football department in the background. Then suddenly, Maguire is out and he is the coach. Eh? Are we saying Tim is so good he fixed all the football department matters in six months and now there is no need for his expertise and a GM football? Are we saying, a job that took Gus years to to do before things turned round, Tim can knock out in six months and better still, not replace the role? Wow! That is a hugely impressive performance from Tim. He has fixed the football department in six months (I am sure Gus will be calling to ask how you can do it so quickly it may help his work at the Bulldogs) and now will train the future coaches of the Tigers whilst also coaching the team. What a brilliant plan, with his attention turned 100% to coaching the team and training his team of rookie coaches, what could possibly go wrong?
Nat
Roar Guru
Yep. Sexton will be to the GC what Dearden was to Brisbane the way its going. A young half steering a young pack isn't good planning. He wasn't THAT good in Q Cup to justify the very early progression. If Foz gets injured Boyd is so much further along.
Nat
Roar Guru
Poxy? Rad word man... I was saying that while gleaming the cube! :laughing: The Cross were the gun team in the late 90s before the Cowboys came good. Sell-out every week. Lil croc tails hanging out of cars when they made finals.
Tony
Roar Guru
Stone Fish?
matth
Roar Guru
The young kid they bought from Penrith (whose name escapes me :stoked: ) might force his way in by season's end.
matth
Roar Guru
The Dolphins (hopefully) won't try and overcompensate by paying overs for middle class players, so that when a star becomes available in the next couple of years they've got no room to move.
matth
Roar Guru
I’d say the Dolphins just offered too much. They haven’t shelled out for any marquees so would have plenty of cap space and were in desperate need of some spark. Good on Payten for not blowing the bank for one player. Even if the Hammer is exciting, it’s not like he’s Tedesco. Not sure about he Leilua decision though.
Muzz
Guest
Great article, Dutski and a very interesting concept. I was also frustrated with the Chooks halves experiment. I managed to have a chat with a member of the coaching staff at a function. They wanted to take the pressure off Sam Walker so they moved him to 6. Unfortunately it didn't work and hampered the Roosters season.
Dutski
Roar Guru
Thanks David. Titans will be fascinating to watch. Will the trials of this year crush the kids or fire them up? I think Foran will be good for keeping everyone calm, and having Sam Verrills in the 9 will organise them so much better. Keep Campbell in the 1, Brimson in 6, Boyd to 14 and Sexton for depth and it starts to look much more balanced.
Redcap
Roar Guru
Nice article, Dutski. A few things there that the great Sir Humphrey would describe as "courageous" decisions. The Titans example stands out for me. I can understand them wanting to overhaul things - it wasn't really working, Ash Taylor didn't pan out (and turns out he was seriously injured), Fogarty's a late bloomer and not in the Cody Walker class of late bloomer, they've got Campbell and Brimson and, in theory, Sexton can play the conductor role, Chad-style. I still don't think it was a bad decision - but there's something fundamentally wrong there. Not even Billy Smith could organise that rabble and Sexton is the first halfback I've seen who can't pass the ball. Over to you, Kieran.
Dutski
Roar Guru
Thanks Arcturus. I hadn't thought of it that way, but there does seem to plenty of shooting themselves in the foot. Although for all of them I can see why they've done it, even if I don't agree with it.
Dutski
Roar Guru
Fair point Arnab. Marshall-King showed if he was allowed to just play footy he has something there and we know the Hammer can be super exciting. SOS has looked like next man up at 4 clubs already and while he's been behind some big names (Cronk at the Roosters in his first season and some bloke named Cleary this year), he also had a decent chance to crack a starting spot at the Broncos and Warriors and couldn't quite. Hopefully he's spent the last 5 years learning and is ready to go. Milford could be anything, but essentially he seems to play best with zero expectations.