The spring-autumn Test clashes kick off in Tokyo and Edinburgh this weekend. Four top ten teams clash.
Who is under the most pressure from each of them?
Scotland
Coach Gregor Townsend seems to have lost the plot. The best Scottish player in the world is Finn Russell. He runs the attack for Racing 92, in serviceable French, no less. He may have been the most effective Lion back in the South African series. He likes a drink or three. He is not a yes man. He has been dropped. The day afterwards, he led his club to victory over Montpellier with 18 points and three try assists.
Are there three better fly halves in Scottish rugby? Hell, nae.
All of this piles pressure on Toony. He was not a rule-following No. 10 himself. It appears the issue is personality; not precision or plan.
Scottish commentator Jamie Lyall joins The Roar Rugby podcast to preview this weekend’s clash at Murrayfield
Scottish rugby is run by just a few auld boys and they may not like the bricklayer on a million in Paris calling the shots. Toony went to the right schools, wrote a restrained autobiography (read: boring) and does not embarrass the viceroys.
First up is a limited, average Wallaby side, but with Scottish players not at Glasgow or Edinburgh barred by the window, you would almost make the visitors the favourites. How can that be, with several generational talents (Russell, Stuart Hogg, the Gray brothers, perhaps Hamish Watson) in the mix?
I suspect overcoaching. Too much Toony; not enough Tennent’s.
Lose at home to the Wallabies and the Finn-friendly fans will howl.
(Photo by Ross MacDonald/SNS Group via Getty Images)
The other Scot under the pump is Jamie Ritchie, newly named skipper after Hogg was cashiered, perhaps for having a man bun with plugs.
Ritchie has had moments of red mist before. He looks like a lad who wants to lead by example more than words. Can he steer the ship to a crucial win?
Australia
All year, I’ve written about the lock problem in Australia. It did not help that the All Blacks and Springboks have all-time great duos in place and the Pumas have a decent trio.
But also, Dave Rennie only used one Giteau card on a lock at a time.
He needs to use them all on locks, as I wrote here. Now the Wallabies are in the land of the lochs and lack locks.
Old Cadeyrn Neville and young Nick Frost are backed up by Ned Hanigan or Jed Holloway for this Test. Neville is 33 with five caps. There is an Aussie lock playing in the UK, Rob Simmons, who is 33, but has 106 caps and is a proven lineout caller and set piece engine.
Cadeyrn Neville (Photo by Getty Images)
Frost plays a bit small at Test level, Holloway has been one of 2022’s biggest disappointments and Hanigan can often struggle to stop big carriers on the gain line.
Down the home stretch, one of these four will need to claim a wobbly lineout from Folau Fainga’a in the cold rain blowing in from the Firth of Forth, as a big Scottish lock tickles their ribs and sledges them in incomprehensible and yet offensive prose.
Forget the Queenslander mining analyst Tate McDermott. If the Wallaby locks cannot secure contested restarts and lineouts, stop and start drives, find purchase in the Murrayfield soil at scrum, and make it over the gainline or stop a Matt Fagerson coming at them, it will be useless to have McDermott scampering about at the back.
New Zealand
There should be very little pressure on the All Blacks up against a plucky but shallow Japanese team at home. A comfortable win is all that is needed. But within the plot is a subplot: the last four or five places on the plane to Paris next year.
Three starters this weekend are in that puzzle: first the magic-footed Roger Tuivasa-Sheck who has the No. 12 jersey and will get some front foot ball and perhaps move to the wing at the end. He needs to show something good to stay in the selectors’ minds as a utility back.
Sure-footed Stephen Perofeta had a strong Super Rugby Pacific season and needs to show his game translates to Test level attack.
Finally, Tupou Vaa’i was my pick to be the third lock for the All Blacks, because I don’t see the hallway pounder prefect Scott Barrett as the third lock answer against England, France, or South Africa, and I see glue-handed Vaa’i as having unbelievable balance in contact and in the air.
If Perofeta, RTS, and Vaa’i show class, the All Blacks coaches will have a good problem.
Japan
Nobody is under the pump for Japan. The home crowd adores them. The coaches are respected. The players love their rugby lives and their non-rugby lives.
Win and they are immortals. Come close and they are heroes. Lose by a bit and they are the winners. Lose by a lot and it is expected.
Test rugby is the best rugby: but the pump of pressure is real.
Strap it on, one and all!
Muzzo
Roar Rookie
Hahaha Tim, astute coaches, which in truth are both far superior to what we have as our head coach. Lol :laughing: :laughing:
Muzzo
Roar Rookie
Agree on RTS Harry, but honestly, do you really think that Foster has the brain capacity to even bench him permanently??
Jordon
Guest
Love reading your articles and hearing you on the pod Harry but Rob Simmons is the most average 100cap test player of all time. If he's the answer they might as well cancel the tour. Thankfully the locks did well enough against a very ordinary Scotland to hopefully quell those calls forever.
Jibba Jabba
Roar Guru
Skelton is big.. and that is it .. everywhere else on the field he is a plodder and not up to Tier 1 test standard..
Jibba Jabba
Roar Guru
But he is not so it wont happen..
Tim J
Roar Rookie
:thumbup:
Nick Maguire
Roar Rookie
Man oeurveboard?
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
And I have a guess as to why Harry.
Malo
Guest
Just imagine if Cheikas Lebanon beat the Kangaroos in the qtr final. Hell he will be the greatest coach ever.
Malo
Guest
I’d like to see Frost and Skelton as the locks. Great diversity and balance.
Not An Expert
Guest
Agreed Dusty10. He tends to cater only to his sycophants. Which is indeed…questionable. Agree with all you points made! In regard to McReight: he made an excuse for his poor performance, stating he was overworked due to his work adverse back-row teammates. When a number of Kiwi posters highlighted the same scenario for Sam Cane (in stark contrast to his esteemed “opinion”), first came excuses. Second came condescension. Third was self-righteousness (I’m the Pro he said) followed by silence. I think there’s a good reason he’s dropped down from International to club teams?!
Malo
Guest
I agree RTS should definitely be in the ABs 23. 12 or 13, with a Barrettt beside him to help.
Harry Jones
Expert
I think Finn and I would get on very well!
Harry Jones
Expert
Hogg is a good player. Probably hard to captain from 15.
Harry Jones
Expert
Once I played a few rounds of golf on and around Skye. I can’t tell you how many pro shopkeepers tried to DOWNsell me to used balls and cheaper tees. Also, there was a near riot over the £2 toll for the new bridge; most chose the wee mad ferry (free).
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Excellent Harry. But I hope Finny doesn’t read it. You called a stonemason a bricklayer- a bit like calling a 2nd rower a winger :silly: . Speaking of rowers, I share your concern. Dave was counting on 120 kgs of dependable Matt before the mishap. Cometh the hour cometh the man- Nick Frost has an opportunity. As does ‘old’, but still fresh, Caedym. On the bright side we have our centres back. Wish we had a young 10 that Dave could trust more than Foley. It seems we don’t. But looking forward to the Bernard/Noah 1-2 punch. Feeling good about this game.
Dusty10
Roar Rookie
Absolutely agree with you both re: NB. I understand that writing is his 'thing', but jeeezzus. I'm a psychologist and therefore a statistician by trade (it's rammed down our throats at every level of psych study), and I see errors all over his writing. When those errors are gently pointed out, the response is abrasive and often irrelevant. A few observations: 1. Hodge. NB is Hodge fan no.1 and after he was brought in against the Boks at 15 he said he was, and I quote, "undroppable". He then proceeded with his usual selective highlights package. Well, Hodge was dropped shortly after and Kellaway scored some spine-tingling tries, sending NB into face-saving damage control mode. Terrible stuff. I'd also point put, again, that Hodge had a TERRIBLE super season, he was equally terrible against England, and he just barely scraped into the squad. "Undroppable" was, and is, patently ridiculous. He's a solid player, I like him, but he's no champion. 2. McReight. Another of NBs championed players, with another strong write-up, on the back of one or two strong performances. He was promptly dropped for Samu who pulled out some devastating, Finegan-esque type attacking runs. Again, NB goes into damage-control mode and a kind of face-saving, slow but steady undermining of Samu's performances when ANYONE could see, stats package or not, that the bloke was a stand-out. 3. NB talks about the need for "analysis" as a kind of objective investigative tool that can't be questioned. The problem is, his analyses are often based on one or two games or, worse, a selection of moments from one or two games that fit his narrative. It's just rubbish. I also feel slightly squeamish when he 'pets' his disciples with a loving word or two, giving them a little scratch behind the ears, encouraging more agreement and less questions. It's quite sickening. And that's it from me. Rant over. Apart from the above, I'm sure he's a lovely bloke.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Brendan the Laumape contract had nothing to do with RTS. RTS has a private sponsor for what we would usually consider as an NZR top up. Auckland pay whatever they pay then he receives more from the private top up. Laumape was offered $375,000 a season which to me was a more than fair offer. I never saw anything from Laumape that told me he was a Nonu and good centres arnt rare. Great ones are. On the transferring of RTS that was impossible as Auckland was isolated from the rest of NZ so it would have required a NZ govt exemption for him to travel to another NPC side and they wernt doing that for anyone let alone a rugby player. Agree it would have helped with his development but it was just a unlucky situation.
CW Moss
Roar Rookie
Well IMHO I look and hear the WBs starting to benefit from their experience. Even if this tour is another letdown, by the time we are locked and loaded at the RWC it just might come right.
No Arms
Roar Rookie
That’s what is forecast - 11-14 ‘c 70% possible rain - high chance of miserable