ROCHDALE – It’s time for the messing around to stop. Australia have been on easy street for almost a month in the Rugby League World Cup, with none of their opponents able to lay a glove on them, despite continual messing with their own squad. Such is the talent disparity.
With a semi-final against the Kiwis this Friday night (Saturday morning AEDT) at Elland Road in Leeds, things should be about to get serious. New Zealand underwhelmed in their previous game, squeaking by a resilient Fiji, but are likely to arc up against their old foe.
We’ve spoken extensively about the halfback role, and the relative lack of size in the middle, well-trodden paths for analysing this Kangaroos side. Now, the squad seems relatively settled and more readily available for a deep dive.
Both sides have named their squads, and though Australia’s men continue to mess around with the order of theirs, we can work out generally who is going to go where. Let’s break it down.
CLICK HERE for a seven-day free trial for your favourite sport on KAYO
Normally, I’d this is where I’d tell you that rugby league is a systems sport and good collectives beat good individuals, but come on: Joey Manu v James Tedesco is too good a personal battle to ignore off the top.
The pair have played alongside each other over 100 times in the colours of the Sydney Roosters but against each other just twice, both times in trans-Tasman clashes, and on both occasions, Manu was at centre. Now, they face off in their best positions and as undisputed stars of their teams.
Tedesco has underwhelmed, for my money, at this World Cup, but this would be the perfect time to deliver. I’ll caveat that with the recognition that he’s played a lot of reduced minutes, which isn’t his fault, and that he has played against weaker opposition, which, again, it’s nothing to do with him.
But if you asked who has had the better run so far, it’s undoubtedly Manu. Manu single-handedly rescued the Kiwis against Lebanon and sparked the comeback last week against Fiji and has consistently been the source of early set metres and late set inspiration.
The pair approach things in a similar manner: neither favours one side and both thrive off second phase, allowing them to do their best work centrally in broken play situations.
Manu averages a ridiculously high amount of touches per game, indicating a great level of involvement in play, though that has not always been to his advantage with Tedesco more able to pick moments.
Tedesco can often thrive when his side are less dominant physically, as might be the case on Friday if the Kiwis’ forward pack comes to play, and his ability to have an influence in unfavourable situations might be vital, especially given Nathan Cleary’s periodic problems with wresting game momentum.
The sample size of times where the Panthers halfback has been required to play off the back of a pack that wasn’t on top is small, because Penrith so often win the yardage battle, but it has been a major criticism in Origin games and might come to the fore on Friday night. If it does, then he’ll need Tedesco there with him to turn the game in the Kangaroos’ favour.
OK, so the collective. Rep footy is generally less collectivist because you don’t get time to put a team together, and it appears that Australia haven’t really bothered to create that kind of team as a result.
They’ve opted to give everyone a game in the groups rather than strengthening combinations, then picked a side that foreground micro-combinations from club level above a wider team cohesion.
New Zealand haven’t been able to do the same due to injuries to key spine members, but have attempted to build a settled side where possible around that, with a clear first choice pack and spine.
There’s two ways that this can go. If you’re Michael Maguire, your hope is that the side you have picked thus far is now sufficiently gelled and ready to step up a level to match the opposition.
It will help that their plan, heavily based on a power game through the middle and exception spine players in Jahome Hughes, Dylan Brown and Joey Manu off the back, is the sort that is easier to put together in a short time than the middle service style that Australia will invariably end up with given the presence of Isaah Yeo and Cam Murray in the side.
If you’re Mal Meninga, you might not worry too much about plans. The talent advantage in international rugby league is basically always with the Kangaroos and they don’t really have to have much of a strategy that goes beyond getting their incredibly good players to play to their abilities.
As mentioned, the mere presence of Yeo and Cleary means that they will be inclined to play through that combination, with a more freestyling fashion elsewhere.
It is usually enough, though the last time the Roos lost, in 2019, that plan was made to look a little naive by a committed, organised Tongan pack that ran right over them. It works until it doesn’t, and, of course, it usually works.
The Kangaroos’ strategy to date has manifested itself in a noticeable imbalance in attack, with the left favoured heavily over the right.
It’s easy to see why, given the talent available on that edge: Cameron Munster, the world’s best five eighth, into Latrell Mitchell, one of the world’s best centres, and then Josh Addo-Carr, potentially the best player at the tournament so far.
It helps that Latrell is also the underpinning of the best left edge in the NRL at South Sydney, and Munster also likes to lurk out there for Melbourne, so just chuck those two the ball as often as possible.
Conversely, on the other side, there is Val Holmes – now a winger again – and Jack Wighton, shoehorned into the side and not a proper centre. Often those two have been used as foils to open up a long side that can create space on the left.
It will be interesting to see how this breaks down against the Kiwis. The right edge of New Zealand, with Peta Hiku up against Mitchell and Jordan Rapana taking on the Foxx, was exposed last week for Fiji’s first try but would generally be considered defensively strong, while the other edge – Charze Nicoll-Klokstad and Ronaldo Mulitalo – is solid too.
The outside backs for the Kiwis are a clear disadvantage – not one would make the Australia squad, let alone team – and, if Australia can generate go-forward, they’d do well to attack early and often.
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
@Zozza - no, they are not bigger across the park. Check their profiles. NAS is very big. And Murray is very small. Smith is heavier than Grant. Other than that they are very even in height and weight. Subjective call on whether they are better. My subjective all is that Bromwich, Bromwich and Liu are past their best. NAS while huge is one dimensional. Tapine is a great front rower but not creative enough to play lock in the modern game. Papalii is in red hot form and probably shades Martin... but only just... and you do have to ask which one of them got it over the other in the GF. If Smith is better than Grant then Bellamy has made a dud decision on who to keep. I reckon I'm going to back Bellamy on that one. It's not arrogance or fooling myself. The players' height and weight are numbers unaffected by my attitude. And what constitutes 'better' is as I said subjective opinion, and I've given my reasons why I hold that opinion. They are not as strong as some previous Kangaroo packs, for sure. But they don't have to beat a previous Kangaroo pack. They just have to beat this NZ pack. We'll see how it plays out.
@Short Memory — The Kiwi forwards are bigger and better player for player in the majority bar two cases (Trbojevic and Yeo). As per my post above, that does not mean under the right conditions the Kangaroos cannot take out this match. They definitely can indeed. My own underlying feeling is you are suffering from the same thing All Black Rugby fans suffer from – an arrogance born of many, many years of success. So, hey, the arrogance may be deserved, but in this modern age you are simply fooling yourself if you think this Aussie pack is anywhere near the level of previous Kangaroo packs. Frankly I have not seen a weaker one in my 50+ years on this earth. However, love your passion for the Kangaroos and International League – it is so good to see Australia and New Zealand lock horns this morning in what will be a bone cruncher of a match. See you on the other side.
Mulitalo and Rapana were two of the best on the field last week. They may not have the (deserved) flash harry reputations of Holmes and Ado Carr but they are very, very good players. However, I look at the Aussie pack and only Yeo and Trbojevic would make the Kiwis. So yeah, Kangaroos can win for sure, and a fast game with a lot of penalties against the Kiwi forward pack will tremendously help the Roos take it over the Kiwis. But most games are won in the forwards, and given an even spread of penalties I feel that Kiwi pack is just too damn good. Always easy to make predictions after the game when you know the result. I am fronting and making my prediction beforehand, of a 24-10 win to the Kiwis. I could be made to look a clown, and that is the price you pay for making a prediction.
JennyFromPenny
Guest
Panthers butting heads with each other for the first time ever. Leota and Fisher-Harris v Yeo and Martin and Cleary. Just have no idea how that plays out. So much going on, only just over Premiership celebrations, now the World Cup at stake, and only just announced World Club Challenge to be played at Bluebet. Only time tells.
Nat
Roar Guru
Aust won't get beaten in attack but they could get rolled over so it's Cleary's job to kick them into position on early tackles. Keep turning them around so their coming out of their own end.
Nat
Roar Guru
Yep, considering his opposite he and Val will have them covered.
Warren Turner
Roar Rookie
What is "math"?
JennyFromPenny
Guest
Surely, it is the more concern first of all, if there is a question mark over whether Australia's best forward pack will dominate the opposition ? Then if they fail you are asking the halfback to rescue?
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Nice analysis as ever Mike. Though you didn't explicitly say it there is a hint of the underlying expectation that Australia could struggle against the Kiwi forward pack - who are being touted everywhere it seems as significantly bigger than the Kangaroos pack and thus likely to dominate. I did a little bit of quick math using the fox sports stats for RLWC players. In terms of height, the combined Australian forwards come out slightly ahead at a total combined 1688cm to 1684. In terms of weight the Kiwis come out ahead at a total combined 960kg to 928. That's a total combined advantage of 32kg. But 13kg each of that are brought by NAS (lining up against Crichton) and Liu (up against Murray). While both those Kiwi forwards bring a bit more brute grunt, they are pretty one dimensional and lack the flair and unpredictability of their opposite numbers. The rest of the weight advantage is provided by Smith v Grant. Beyond that, the two packs pretty much balance out for weight. So where else can we look for advantage / disadvantage. Maybe age / stamina? The Kiwis are fielding 3 forwards aged over 30. And NAS is playing more minutes in WC rep games than he does in NRL. Run Metres is another interesting indicator. The Aussie pack is well on top in aggregate, and almost across the board. While it's possible (as anything is in any given game) that the Kiwi pack will dominate the Aussie pack, there doesn't seem to be a great deal of hard evidence to support this expectation. It seems pretty unlikely that Cleary and Munster will be playing off the back foot very much if at all.
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Wighton was one of Blues best and only left out because he was crook.
Phil
Roar Rookie
Interesting comments about Nathan Cleary. Must admit I have thought the same at times. As good as he is he has struggled when his forwards don't dominate like in SOO. Playing behind the best pack in the comp is an advantage especially having the protection they are able to give him. Let's hope he measures up tomorrow.
Cam
Roar Rookie
Agree, he looked good when Hughes was out. Geez I reckon Manly are going to really miss him next season.
ALL ABOUT BALLS
Roar Rookie
I do believe that Foran needs to be on the field as much as he can , ,but hard to put him anywhere with their talent,just think he controls and calms the side down, and play smarter in a way.
ClassBalls
Roar Rookie
johnno 2, you must be confusing Jack Wighton for someone else. The guy is tough as teak and is without a doubt a big game player. As Souvalis said "runs hard and hits harder!" There won't be 1 kiwi in that side that wants run down his channel
Red Rob
Roar Rookie
Yep, Mal could have gone with different picks but Wighton in a Roo jersey is fine by me.
Red Rob
Roar Rookie
Yeah! I’ll sort ‘im, comrade. Hold my cane toad …
Rellum
Roar Guru
Yeah, that is just uncalled for
JennyFromPenny
Guest
Joey's daddy would be a Kangaroo, right ?
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
I've been called a lot of names in my time on this planet but never anything as insulting as that .
johnno 2
Roar Rookie
From the start, Wighton was not on my list but i think that's a Mal - Ricky connection. Wighton is not this standard of competition [ and this is below SOO ]. NZ would do well to target Wighton as i see this as the weakest point in the Aussie side. Campbell Graham would be a much more secure selection and has backed that up in earlier games. I hope Mal instructs Wighton stay out of the play and pass the ball straight away , that's if he catches it . i'll hold my breath if he gets the pill expecting him to stuff it up again. Good luck to the ROOs carrying this passenger