Kangaroos vs Samoa: Where the RL World Cup Final will be won and lost

MANCHESTER – Five weeks in and what have we learned? The Kangaroos are still better, man for man, than anyone else and that seems set to continue. If they were going to lose, it would have been to the Kiwis in the semi-final.

It’s hard to say anything more than that Samoa’s World Cup was won last week, with such an emotionally-draining victory over England, and that the only side other than New Zealand that might have seriously troubled Mal Meninga’s men could have been the hosts, who would have had 75,000 fans roaring at them (and the ref), allied to a playing style that might have replicated what the Kiwi pack was able to do.

While this is framed as a ‘Where the World Cup will be won’ piece, it’s actually more about how Samoa can cause the Kangaroos even the slightest of problems. The truth, unfortunately, is that absolutely everything would have to go wrong for Australia not to win, and likely win easily. The bookies have them $7 and more.

Samoa’s plan has to be relatively straightforward and play to their strengths. Their pack might be able to cause Australia problems, especially if Junior Paulo and Josh Papali’i are able to generate second-phase play. On the back of that, Jarome Luai can create and Joseph Suaalii can take his hard carries.

They also need to hope Australia kick as badly as England did last week, because they served ball to Suaalii and Brian To’o to run back in with interest.

The Kangaroos, for their part, just need to be patient. The truth of the matter is that if they play to 50% of their ability, Samoa will give them opportunities. England, who played about as badly as they could, still scored 26 points, most of which were highly avoidable.

Samoa managed to play well and put themselves in a position to win, but also copped a huge swing of variance in that their opponents butchered tries, threw intercepts and missed simple tackles, while also having a lot of their own passes go to hand.

Tries like Stephen Crichton’s double showed that, with the first the result of multiple offloads and the second an intercept. You might argue that Samoa are an above-average offloading side, and that Crichton has taken so many intercepts now that there might be an element of anticipation and skill in it, but in truth, both were low probability plays that came off. Lightning needs to strike twice.

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For all the chat in the media about passion, Mal needs to get an absolutely dispassionate performance from his men. If they play competently and with patience – like an Ivan Cleary team would – then they minimise variance and induce the conditions for what might be a comfortable afternoon.

The temptation will be to fight fire with fire and batter into the Samoans early on, but in truth, they only need to take the sting out of the game and let the rest work itself out. Australia have 17 matchwinners and really don’t have to be at their best. Samoa have to be perfect and lucky.

If the Kangaroos can be patient, they’ll get chances. Suaalii is great with ball in hand but – in this tournament at least – has been exposed positionally at fullback. I would expect Ben Hunt to exercise his kicking boots early and pick off a 40/20.

Similarly, I would expect Nathan Cleary to put boot to ball earlier in the tackle count, because Samoa were incredibly effective in blunting the ball-playing lock – Victor Radley, in England’s case – with an umbrella defence. The quickest remedy to that, as New South Wales discovered in Game 2 of Origin, is the kick in behind.

A combination of the fast-rushing outside backs, which the Kangaroos will surely have picked up in video, and Suaalii’s suspect positioning can likely deliver results from Cleary’s short kicking game.

As with last week against New Zealand, Australia only need to match Samoa in the middle. They don’t need to run through them, but only to square that area and take advantage out wide.

Last time out, the Kiwis were able to make Australia look clunky through similar defensive tactics that starved Latrell Mitchell of the ball and forced long shifts towards Val Holmes and Jack Wighton. The Kangaroos have such depths of talent that they can simply go elsewhere if Plan A doesn’t work.

The crucial cog in the wheel, as ever, will be Cleary. He’s become an expert at patience, trusting his team to be better and come out on top. Get to the end of the sets, cage the wingers with kicks, gradually tighten the screw. And, above all, stay calm.

Nathan, and Mal, should have a copy of the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy on their nightstand in the Midland Hotel tonight, and like the large, friendly letters on the cover say: Don’t Panic.