With the 2023 NRL season just around the corner, it’s easy to fall victim to narratives and opinions that are not necessarily true. Here I will make some hot takes that go against the grain of public discourse. These are not fabricated thoughts just to get clicks but my genuine views that are different to the majority of fans.
Nathan Cleary is overrated
The notion that Nathan Cleary is on his way to become the greatest halfback cannot be further from the truth. Do not get me wrong, he is a very good player, but vastly overhyped. He lacks the game-breaking ability of Andrew Johns or Johnathan Thurston and has not dominated a finals series or State of Origin series like the latter.
He is 0-2 in Origin deciders against inferior opposition. In 2020 it was a Maroons team touted the worst ever and in 2022 without their best player in Cam Munster.
For Australia in the World Cup he was a non-factor despite the Kangaroos winning the World Cup. Some may look at Penrith’s success, and yes, he has played a key role in that, but he’s fortunate to be in a team and more so a system that suffocates and strangles opposition. In fairness, they do benefit from his kicking game which helps leave opposition camped inside their own half.
Furthermore, Sean O’Sullivan, a career journeyman who’s been a reserve grade player for most his career, filled that role really well and there was not a huge drop-off in production from the halfback role.
When he was missing for the Panthers in 2022 they went 8-1 – in fact there is only a 1.5 points per game difference more when he plays (which is essentially one less conversion per game) to when is not there which strengthens my argument that a lot of his success is the team and structures around him.
Nathan Cleary. (Photo by Matt Blyth/Getty Images)
He plays his part to a high level, but Daly Cherry-Evans, Mitchell Moses, or Adam Reynolds could play this same role and Panthers would still be back-to-back premiers. I am not denying he is one of the best halfbacks in the NRL, but the narrative he is heads and shoulders above any other halfback is antithetical to the facts. He has not showed up in many rep games which further highlights my point that he is more of a product of the Penrith system.
Until he dominates an Origin series, turns up when playing for Australia, or even for Penrith he does not stand out as much of an all-time grea. He will never be close to Johnathan Thurston or Andrew Johns, he’s levels below and is not even close to Cooper Cronk when comparing great No.7s in the last 20 years.
More technology is needed
You hear almost ad nauseam how the technology, in particular the Bunker, has ruined NRL and needs to be scaled back, but I say the contrary. The common reason for opposition to the use of technology is that at the end of the day humans are still making decisions and humans are flawed, therefore there will be mistakes, which is true.
I contend that there will always be errors made by officials and technology reduces the likelihood of that happening. I propose a heat map system used similar in cricket to determine whether a ball has been hit. This can be used to see whether a ball has been touched in mid-air contests where we do not have a clue on who touched the ball and spend time going over replays and zooming in on pixelated footage and still do not have a definitive answer.
I’d also like to see some version of Hawk-Eye where every pass is analysed and if it detects a forward pass the referee will be notified. This will deliver quick and accurate decisions and take it out of the touch judge or referee’s hands as those type of calls are probably the most difficult for an official to make on the spot.
The amount of forward passes that go uncalled in a game, especially from dummy-half, illustrates how officials are behind the eight-ball where it comes to this aspect of the game.
Parramatta upgraded at hooker (barring injury)
The Eels, who made the Grand Final in 2022, lost a key player in their spine in Reed Mahoney who is 24 and at one stage looked like having a long career at Parramatta, until he decided to join the Bulldogs in 2023. Many have this player departure as a reason why Eels will go backwards this year, however, I beg to differ.
Let’s get the elephant out of the room: yes, Josh Hodgson has had two years ended with season-ending injuries and if he is hurt he is no use, but if he can stay healthy he will give Parramatta an element of attack they have not had. Mahoney was a solid defender, really good kicking game and excellent long, crisp passing off the ground that seem to always hit the mark.
Hodgson brings the ability to engage A and B defender, craftiness and knack of targeting tired forwards which will elevate the Eels’ attack to another level. He is an additional threat – that in turn keeps the middle defenders more honest, which creates even more space for their halves pairing Brown and Moses.
It is no secret if you can stop the Eels’ offloads you are going a long way to beat them, as they lack a plan B.
Hodgson provides his new team with another trump card. Some may say he is too old – yes, he does not have many years ahead of him but Cameron Smith and Michael Ennis were two hookers in their mid-30s who played key roles in their premiership-winning teams as the hooker position does not require speed, athleticism and power which generally dwindle over time.
James Tedesco is not the best fullback in his team
Roosters, New South Wales and Australia captain James Tedesco has been easily one of the best fullbacks in the last 20 years but in 2023 it’s quite clear that Joseph Manu is the better fullback. His performances when he has been moved there are extraordinary. From racking up four man of the match awards from six games at fullback, to breaking the record for most metres in a game with 398.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Tedesco (aged 30) is just not the running threat that Manu (26) is. Teddy is still an excellent player but has fallen off from his best in 2015-2019, and it’s Manu’s time to dominate like he can. It is a travesty someone as talented as the Kiwi is stuck in the centres as he needs to be closer to the ball.
Who knows, in a year’s time Tedesco may be the third-best fullback in Bondi if Joseph Sua’ali’i continues his upward trajectory and given a chance if injuries occur.
There should be no dead rubbers in Origin
I know anyone trying to alter the fabric of one of the greatest sporting contests in Australia will be a controversial topic, but today like most aspects we must adapt to the times. Rugby league is too brutal of sport to play a game where there is nothing to play for, let alone a State of Origin match which is a rugby league game on steroids in terms of intensity and physicality.
Clubs are risking injury and suspension for meaningless games where there is literally nothing to play for. The series has been decided – who cares how much you win by? Although each player loves their respective states, their preferences and priority should always be their employer who is paying them hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars, and to potentially lose a valuable asset in a game where nothing is up for grabs is plain ludicrous.
Well, there are my hot takes. Of course most won’t agree, so feel free to voice how wrong I am.
Ponder..
Guest
I think the Cowboys would swap Cleary for Townsend in a second. Would Townsend have helped Penrith to 3 GF’s , I think not.
Gus O
Guest
Three separate issues with the technology: 1. Is it accurate/reliable. 2. How loooong does it take to get an answer and how disruptive is it to the flow of the game. 3. When/what decisions should it be used for? What i like about the sophisticated ball tracking technology for forward passes is that it is automatic and instantaneous. They don’t need replays and delays. Now if we could just make it work for players moving off the mark to play the ball to take the markers out of play… or is that what referees and touchies are supposed to be there for?
Cat Brown
Guest
I know it's not correct to say but YES Nathan Cleary is very over rated. He doesn't have the smart footy brain to take control of the game. The commentators must be watching another game when they call his brilliance. He is a good half back. Good. Not great. And as a Queenslander I always thought Cronk was also over rated. Yes he has a great number of Premierships but could he have led Cowboys to the Grand Final. I think not
GLENN
Guest
Your thinking of NFL
Chris
Guest
The only things that Alfie did for himself was a run here or there & the little kicks into the in goal. Other than that , he had massive assistance from a very good Broncos side & Queensland sides of the time. I’d say that Cleary does runs here or there & also does the little kicks into the in goal. For himself & other players. How is that different to Alfie? Alfie did good passes to support players, as does Cleary.
London Panther
Roar Rookie
As a Penrith fan I love Cleary and think he is under-rated by the fans; if you watch the Panthers week-in, week-out you see what he brings to the team. Yes he is supported by a great cast, but I think he helps make them look as good as they do just as much as the other way around. Maybe the fans are just responding to the commentators, a few of which (Cronk and the nine crew) do talk him up incessantly (albeit Cronk and a few on None might know a bit about playing halves in the NRL and at rep level). The one thing I do want to really take apart is that he hasn’t dominated at Origin level like Johns. Johns had one or two great seasons at Origin level but if you look at his total body of work he wasn’t tracking anywhere near where Nathan was at the same stage of their careers. To put it in context: - Johns made his debut at 21 in 1995, when the Blues had Stuart (SL) and Toovey (injured) unavailable (potentially even Brandy in front of him). People talk about the 2020 Queensland team being the worst ever, but QLD was devastated by SL unavailability and some of the QLD back line were plucked from reserve grade. The Johns-half backed side lost the first two games and he was replaced by Toovey coming back from injury for the third. - Johns played the next two seasons at hooker. - Johns didn’t get another game at halfback until he was 24 (same age that Nathan played his most recent of 13 games at halfback). In that game, Johns would kick 1 from 5 and NSW would lose by one point. They would go onto lose that series by 2 games to 1. Johns went onto have a great Origin career (albeit he ‘only’ played 16 games at halfback (a figure Nathan could conceivably match this year)), but at 24 he had played two series at half and lost both; one to the worst QLD side of all time and the other where his poor skills under pressure had been pivotal to losing the key first game. At this same stage Nathan has lost two of his five series, and in both losing series he has been MoM in the second game when NSW has won to tie up the series.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
There is no such thing as a dead rubber. Both states want to win by 3-0 or lose 1-2 and they play accordingly.
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
Not much to disagree with there. You are right about the Origin dead rubber, but the NRL's desperate need for money will mean that there is zero chance of allowing that when even a dead rubber Origin game would be a major draw for broadcasters.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Well he’s on the fringe, I like him, but right now he’s behind Penisini, Russell, Sivo, Dunster, maybe Loizou, and obviously Waqa when he gets back. Simonsen is there too.
Panthers
Guest
I know how you love the chat about players from Penrith, who are at Parramatta. Zac Cini played for Parramatta in the trials game yesterday. Another Panthers junior , who came through the Penrith system, before going to West’s. I think he’s a real chance of getting into Parramatta’s first grade team this season. :thumbup:
Rellum
Roar Guru
Yeah, to me Cleary is trending as a new Cronk. Doesn't have that individual brilliance of guys like Joey, JT, Alfie or Stuart but is very good at being the general of a very good team. Does all the little things well, is relentless.
Get_real
Roar Rookie
Mahoney gives slow service which leads to forward passes to forwards taking one out hit ups especially if there is a quick play of the ball & passing to his right is ordinary.
blahblah
Guest
You wish to add more technology is pretty disturbing, considering how unpopular the use of technology currently is. "The amount of forward passes that go uncalled in a game, especially from dummy-half..." I mean let's say there's 20 forward passes in a game - how much time does it take to assess that? More importantly, is it accurate. Nothing about the current bunker technology is decisive. It's subjective at best. We've all seen the bunker make a crap load of mistakes, while adding little value to the game.
craig
Guest
Didn’t NSW win some series with Cleary in the side? So how is that going consistently missing? Australia lost to Tonga in a pacific nations cup final & Tonga didn’t even field decent halves. I think DCE & Munster were the halves for Australia. So did they both go missing big time? Or was it all the team , especially the forwards who were outplayed?
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
Your thoughts on the Dragons in the era of invincibility are very interesting. Imagine how Ken Arthurson, the Manly player and coach during that time, felt about them. He once said "St.George always start the fights" but the only player to do so was Billy Wilson who was sent off in the 1962 grand final for punching Jim Cody. Frank Facer sacked Billy because he put the team in danger of losing. Arthurson got his revenge in the 1985 grand final. When Graham Wynn was walking back after a scrum penalty he was knocked out by Peter Kelly with a coward's punch from behind. Referee Kevin Roberts didn't penalise Kelly. Leter when Steve Mortimer knocked Wynn out again he was not penalised. Andrew Farrer elbowed Michael O'Conner and was not penalised. It was when Jim Comans was cleaning up the game so they couldn't be sent off. Comans had warned Mortimer if he was sent off Rugby League would be a memory for him. St.George would've won all three grades that day.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Now you’re asking for trouble. How Sterlo is not an Immortal is beyond me. Criminal.
Panthers
Guest
The people in the game & in the know , don’t agree with this story & the naysayers that appear , then go along with it. Add to that , that motivation can be found in many forms . Let the Negative Nellies say what they like?
craig
Guest
Maybe it just says that the opinions of those who say he’s overrated, carry zero weight? As someone else said, overrated compared to what?
Cadfael
Roar Guru
Forward passes have always been around but have increased so much since the rule change in 1993 when the attacking team could be viryually alongside the dummy half.
chris
Guest
Surely they created more opportunities through their halves , to score more points? The back 5 didn’t do that. If you’re going to argue that one half is more creative than another, where’s the proof? It’s not there for Moses in the games that mattered most last season ( & not there in the for & against for those clubs either. ) Both clubs made the GF. So it makes such direct comparisons relevant. Otherwise it is just personal bias , one way or the other.