Manly is politics. Manly is drama. Manly hates you too. If only there was some really convenient metaphor for a long-running soap opera on Sydney’s Northern Beaches, eh?
The Sea Eagles will certainly be playing home & away this year as they look to improve on their shocking end to 2022, which started with a jersey and ended with them ditching a club icon in favour of Anthony Seibold.
We’ve only had one trial’s worth of Manly so far, making it difficult to predict what they might be like, but if the history of Anthony Seibold is anything to go by, expect it to be intricate.
I’m a sucker for that kind of thing so will probably enjoy watching them a lot, but crucially, it tends not to bother the end of the season too frequently.
At this juncture, a Manly team that wins more than it loses and plays with panache would probably be considered a success for year one of Seibold’s third stint in the NRL.
The key relationship will not be Seibold and Tom Trbojevic, as many expect, but Seibold and Daly Cherry-Evans: if the coach gets the captain onboard with the plan, then it might all work spectacularly well.
The usefulness of Tommy T at the back, and the ability of Josh Schuster to cement himself as a long-term option in the halves stem from DCE. He can get the ball to Turbo where he needs it, and he can do the stuff that Schuster can’t.
In general, the roster is better than last year’s 11th place finish and it’d be a disappointment to be there again. But, as seen last year, it can all go wrong so quickly.
(Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
Path to the trophy
Manly probably aren’t a Premiership threat, but they could certainly be a nightmare for anyone that wants to be. If Seibold and DCE click, they’ll have two of the smartest minds in the game leading them around, with any number of attacking options available to them.
Any team that has a peak Tom Trbojevic and a fit and interested Josh Schuster shovelling the ball to strike edges of the standard of Haumole Olakau’atu and Kelma Taulagi can win games of footy.
This side is probably better than the one that finished fourth in 2021 and could get a fair wind that pushes them in the right direction. The centre of the field will ultimately be their undoing against the best of the best, but the potential for points is huge.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Danger signs
How long have you got? They could all fall out with each other again, like last year. Seibold could fall out with everyone, as happened at Brisbane. The CEO could fall out with the rest of the club who could start an argument in an empty room.
What we learned late in 2022 is that no amount of talent can overcome blokes who don’t want to play for each other, and there’s ample evidence that such a situation could arise again.
There’ll probably be a few sides worse than Manly, but we’ve seen the movie before: Turbo injured, players looking elsewhere, coach losing the dressing room, infighting in the board.
The draw
Manly’s draw is hard to interpret. On the face of it, they could go alright: they get the Dogs, and Eels at Brookie with the bye in between, plus the Knights, Tigers and Titans inside the first ten.
On paper, they could easily have a positive record by the time they (inexplicably) give up their home fixture to the Broncos at Magic Round.
Origin is a bit of a horror trot for them, but it’ll be against other sides missing numbers, and the end is potentially soft, though it might not look like it by then.
The key three: Daly Cherry-Evans, Tom Trbojevic, Jake Trbojevic
Seibold fancies himself as a halves whisperer: when he had Adam Reynolds and Cody Walker at Souths, it went great, but when he had Brodie Croft and Anthony Milford at Brisbane, it did not.
DCE is more than good enough to make this team tick, and if Turbo is fit for any length of time, he’ll be huge.
Jurbo is the third, less obvious lynchpin. He’s permanently underrated, but provides the sort of leadership that gets him picked for every rep team. In a side that might prioritise attack over defence at times, having a guy who tackles everything that moves will be invaluable.
It’ll also be interesting to see how Seibold treats Jake in attack. Hasler was convinced that he was a ball-playing lock, but he never threatened the line and often ended up a ball-moving lock, shuffling the attack slowly and innocuously along. This is probably the time to abandon that experiment, save Jake’s legs for defence and run the attack through DCE and Schuster.
Player under pressure: Josh Schuster
Josh Schuster is the big question for Manly. He’s told everyone he’s a half for years and now he gets him chance to prove it.
The word out of camp is that he’s slimmed down and can play 80 minutes, which is the bare minimum for a five eighth. He’ll get good ball off Cherry-Evans and needs to show that he can do something with it without all the nonsense that has often come with his play in the past.
When he featured for Samoa in the 6 jumper last year, there were moments of pure brilliance – but it came with a load of rubbish too. Needless kicks, showy passes and extravagant dummies are undeniably entertaining but there’s a time and place for them.
It’s great in the junior ranks, where Schuster was an undeniable standout half, but those opportunities are few and far between at NRL level. He needs to be sensible, run hard and take chances when they emerge.
Josh Schuster. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Hidden Gem: Ben Trbojevic
Manly’s youth prospects are very strong. There’s Kaeo Weekes, who we saw late last year, plus Gordon Chan Kum Tong, who looked good in the recent trial against South Sydney. There’s Samuela Fainu and Viliame Fifita, too, who impressed in that game.
But the biggest improver could well be Ben Trbojevic: he has stacked on the kilos in the offseason, graduating from a talented, gangly youngster to a potentially devastating option in the back row or centres.
There’s space in both the forward rotation, with Marty Taupau and Andrew Davey departing, and in the backs, with Morgan Harper and Brad Parker failing to nail down a spot permanently last year. This can be the year where Burbo emerges from the shadow of his more illustrious brothers.
Coach’s safety rating
No Manly coach is ever really that safe, given the extensive politicking that goes on, and the wave that brought Seibold in might well wash him away if things were to change above him.
But he’s new and will get time. Nobody expects them to pick up a Premiership in his first year, and he has the roster to at least do better than 2022. Were he to lose his job, it probably wouldn’t be because of things that happened on the field.
Premiership odds
$21 at PlayUp, joint ninth with the Bulldogs and Raiders.
Predicted finish
Could be absolutely anything. If you told me they’d finish fifth, I’d believe you, and if you told me fifth bottom, I’d believe that too. I’m a Manly fan, so let’s be optimistic and say seventh.
Squad list
Round 1 predicted team
1 Tom Trbojevic
2 Christian Tuipulotu
3 Brad Parker
4 Reuben Garrick
5 Tolutau Koula
6 Josh Schuster
7 Daly Cherry-Evans
8 Josh Aloiai
9 Lachlan Croker
10 Taniela Paseka
11 Kelma Tuilagi
12 Haumole Olakau’atu
13 Jake Trbojevic
Interchange
14 Cooper Johns
15 Sean Keppie
16 Toff Sipley
17 Ben Trbojevic
Other squad members: Jason Saab, Morgan Harper, Karl Lawton, Morgan Boyle, Alec Tu’itavake (injured), Kaeo Weekes, Raymond Vaega, Ethan Bullemor, Ben Condon, Viliami Fifita, Zac Fulton.
(Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
Season Draw
Round 1 v Bulldogs @ 4 Pines Park
Round 2 BYE
Round 3 v Eels @ 4 Pines Park
Round 4 v Souths @ Accor Stadium
Round 5 v Knights @ Glen Willow Oval, Mudgee
Round 6 v Panthers @ Bluebet Stadium
Round 7 v Storm @ 4 Pines Park
Round 8 v Tigers @ Campbelltown Stadium
Round 9 v Titans @ 4 Pines Park
Round 10 v Broncos @ Suncorp Stadium
Round 11 v Sharks @ 4 Pines Park
Round 12 v Raiders @ GIO Stadium
Round 13 v Knights @ McDonaldJones Stadium
Round 14 BYE
Round 15 v Dolphins @ 4 Pines Park
Round 16 v Eels @ CommBank Stadium
Round 17 v Storm @ AAMI Park
Round 18 v Roosters @ 4 Pines Park
Round 19 BYE
Round 20 v Cowboys @ 4 Pines Park
Round 21 v Sharks @ PointsBet Stadium
Round 22 v Dragons at WIN Stadium
Round 23 v Panthers @ 4 Pines Park
Round 24 v Warriors @ Mt Smart Stadium
Round 25 v Bulldogs @ Accor Stadium
Round 26 v Tigers @ 4 Pines Park
Cam
Roar Rookie
I think Manly are a miles ahead of where the Bronx were when he took the reins, so this stint should be a touch easier. And he also has a couple of more years under his belt as an assistant, especially the time he spent with Eddie Jones won't have hurt. It is a really interesting story in the 2023 season, I am keen to see how it unfolds.
JennyFromPenny
Guest
I think the biggest factor in Manly's '23 fate lies with Schuster. Like Penrith, Manly play two halves, one controlling left and one right. Foran's return was fairly average. Improvement from the new 6 could mean a jump up the ladder for the Eagles.
Busty McCracken
Roar Rookie
Geez I'm glad youre a manly fan Mike. Dig your articles immensely so is great to get your thoughts on our club. As you say it could go either way this year but having accurately predicted how each season would go for us since barrett first took over , im leaning towards a reasonably successful year, landing in 6th place. (Put ya house on it :laughing: ) Seibold so far appears to have learned how to deal with the media since broncos days which i think is a big thing for him but he gets a cross for his comments to Peter Peters. He needs to cut that stuff out fast or the manly politics will chew him up fast.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Parker is whole hearted and brave. He hits the hole well and is a good player. His lack of pace and acceleration however is a big drawback not only in attack but also defence. He can't fix a problem and chase someone down like Koula can and does. I don't know who is the best defensive centre in the game. Josh Morris probably held the title before.
Nambawan
Roar Rookie
Forty, I reckon Parker is just about the best defensive centre in the League. He also runs hard and his ball skills are reasonable - but he somewhat lacks adequate pace and footwork. But all in all would not let the side down. Harper is just too slow and can be a liability. Young Myers clearly will be in the team at some stage - probably later in the season. Koula of course has a mortgage on one of the centre positions.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Many are saying that Seibold is a bit of a dud coach. Look up a Roar article from a while back which asked the question ''Is Cleary actually a good coach?'' Most were saying Cleary was very ordinary a while back and would quote all sorts of stats to prove their case. I wouldn't have a clue how Seibold will go at Manly in comparison to any other coach but if the cattle are as decent as I suspect they are and they are all fit and healthy for the next two or three years , like Cleary has had , then I claim Manly will do very well. I still won't be able to asses Seibold in comparison to other coaches because it's not a level playing field is it? If big Wayne loses his best three players to injury and finishes with the spoon then it won't show much about his coaching ability. Hasler had a perfect run with a lack of injuries and a decent roster a while back at Manly and won titles. It hasn't happened since and it's not all about the coaches.
eagleJack
Roar Guru
Fair enough Cam, and you could well be right. There is no doubt if Seibs fails, then that is his NRL coaching career done. So there’s a bit of pressure. He needs results. But so far, based on pre-season only, I have been impressed by him. A good coach needs to be a good man manager. And he’s ticked that box well, identifying the need for the players to get closer on a personal level. No doubt he’d seen the isolation of the players, travelling miles to get to training and never hanging out, during his stint as an assistant at Manly. Which means he’s also worked with the Manly’s brains trust (DCE, Turbo & Jurbo) before. And they all get him. One of the complaints at the Broncos were his complicated game plans. Now which halfback would you want steering the team around executing a game plan - Kodi Nikorima (2019), Brodie Croft (2020) or DCE? Not to mention his “one ok year with Souths” was him taking them from 12th in 2017 to 3rd in 2018 (equal 1st on points). And through to a Preliminary Final losing to eventual premiers the Roosters. I think there are enough positives there to give the guy a shot.
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
I have never heard such an amount of whining since St Augustine's Brookvale canceled the Stella Maris Convent Manly School dance in 1975. My son was livid. You blokes need to step up to the plate. Are you here to see the Boys win ? If not, go down to the Cinema , eat ice creams and pop corn, and watch Ryan Reynolds being a pretend to be a manly. This premiership can be summed up in five words : Manly . Make that five letters
Tom G
Roar Rookie
Lawton needs to be in the 17 somewhere for sure
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
In the 90's I thought the thing we needed to take the next step was a quality centre and the next thing Craig Innes arrived and it was happy days. Most Manly fans talk about needing a dominant front rower but I see potential in the cattle we already have and I'm looking at the centres myself and see how that develops. The cattle are much better than the punters think , in my opinion.
Tom G
Roar Rookie
Quality centres had been a fixture for so long at Manly that when a Harper/Parker combination came along they stood out for just being honest grafters. Parker always puts in a decent shift and is solid defensively but sadly he lacks pace. Harper is a rocks and diamonds(well cubic zirconia) type whose inconsistency is his only consistent trait. I’d like to see Garrick and Koula get a crack together as Tuipolotau has one wing covered and Vaega seems fairly decent.
Cam
Roar Rookie
People keep saying Siebold can obviously coach, but I must be missing something, it hasn’t been obvious to me?? He had one ok year with Souths (no GF appearance), and then went on to smash every measurable club record for inept attack/defence on the way to winning Brisbane’s first ever spoon. Sieb’s two seasons in the Q Cup with the Cutters were also rubbish. I’m really keen to see how Manly go, I love watching Tommy T in full flight and hope Siebold doesn’t kill his talent. I’m quietly glad Seibold isn’t coaching my team.
Boingo
Guest
Seebs can definitely coach but his year at souths was instructive. He got coach of the year but by the time the finals rolled round the good sides had worked souths out. Their game plan had become a bit one note and they had no plan B. This was epitomised by their loss to the Roosters in the finals.
eagleJack
Roar Guru
I hear ya Mike, I need to find an editor for my posts. Know anybody?
Bill
Roar Rookie
Mike curious as to your logic behind Koula and Garrick C/W swap? I personally want to see Garrick get a run in th centres but rather at the expense of Parker. Like the other comments a Tui/Vega wing combo looks great to me. A very exciting side on paper here, I can feel my expectations running away from me yet again.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
I agree , it was a disaster.
Mike Meehall Wood
Editor
Pet hate: 'cliques' being pronounced 'clicks'. Other than that, pretty much on board with what you said. My mother-in-law lives in Manly and gets a nosebleed going to Narabeen so can't imagine how it feels to drive in every day from Campbelltown into that environment.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I think that’s a pretty good looking side Of course a lot rests on Turbo’s shoulders. It’s impossible to have a player that good out and not miss him I’d love to see Schuster kick on. He was brilliant in 2021 but looked overweight and off the pace last season. Needs to put some of the trick shots (EG early set kicks and no look cut out passes) away and concentrate on running hard and ball playing. Everything what will flow Surely Koula has to play centre They maybe look a bit light on in the middle third. Keppie is another player that I’m waiting to see take the next step. Brilliant on his day but too big and too frequent a gap between his best and worst Jurbo to prop might help. Maybe Lawton at 13? Looking forward to seeing Fulton get a run. Loved how he stood up to JWH last season…
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
I've always had a lot of confidence in the past when Manly had class centres. It seems we seem to win titles soon after this and when we don't have them we are back in the pack. Parker and Harper look to me like centres you have when you are waiting for better ones. Harsh but faire I believe.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
I agree with all of this.