Wet fingers and guesstimations have Reds and Rebels with the most Australian upside

Two rounds into the Super Rugby Pacific season and it already feels like we can start forming opinions and formulating expectations – if not exactly drawing conclusions – as to how all the sides will go in 2023.

After the second weekend of the year, the annual Super Round in Melbourne (and more on that below), only three teams are left unbeaten: the ACT Brumbies, the Hurricanes, and the runaway Chiefs.

At the other end of the scale sit the Melbourne Rebels, Moana Pasifika and the Highlanders, whose minus-77 point differential opening to the season looks more than a little concerning already. And in between, the 1-and-1 crowd: the Blues, NSW Waratahs, Queensland Reds, Crusaders, Fijian Drua, and the Western Force.

Narrowing the focus to the Australian sides for this exercise, it feels pretty easy to separate the Force from the other four. After showing so much grit and determination to overrun the Rebels in Perth last weekend, Sunday’s 50-point thumping at the hands of Queensland felt like more than one step backwards.

“It’s not good enough for a professional rugby team to put out that kind of performance, and especially when you’re making it hard for yourselves,” was how flyhalf Bryce Hegarty summed things up on fulltime, and it’s hard to find much fault with his blunt assessment.

The Force do at least have time on their hands. Much better to have to come back from a performance like that in Round 3 than in Round 14 with playoffs on the line.

Of the other four teams, however, we start to think forward and glance at the next few weeks ahead, and start wondering who might be able to do what.

Certainly, the Brumbies look in a good place to repeat last year’s top-four finish, and so far haven’t shown much contraction after losing so many senior players at the end of last season. That second-half performance against the Blues – despite conceding as many turnovers and missing as many lineouts as they did – was exactly the sort of game they’ll recall during the year when they inevitably find their backs to the wall again.

The clash with Queensland on Saturday night suddenly looks more mouth-watering than even just a few days ago.

(Photo by Jono Searle/Getty Images)

Similarly, the Waratahs look ready to live up to expectations. They put the contest with the Drua to bed by scoring in the corner from the first uncontested scrum and from there it was just a matter of by how much.

They were the second-ranked Australian side last season by a breath, but already look this ready consolidate that top two standing. I’ve no doubt they’ll be eyeing off a top four finish in 2023, and so they should be.

There’s a new sharpness to NSW this season, experience in the form of Michael Hooper, and importantly, another pre-season and another year together as a playing squad.

But like the ACT side, we knew all that about the Tahs coming into Round 1.

And that’s perhaps why the Queensland bounce-back was as impressive as it was. They were scratchy in week one against the Hurricanes and even looked lost at times, but looked completely different in putting away the Western Force so emphatically.

There’s a proper connection across the backline, with Tom Lynagh playing a nicely understated distribution role to let the midfield of Hunter Paisami and Josh Flook do their thing. James O’Connor’s return will only enhance this. The post-Taniela Tupou scrum will improve over time, and their backrow remains as dangerous as ever.

The back three was fine as well. Suliasi Vunivalu needed to show plenty after one of the stranger blame-shifts I can recall, and while the work rate concerns around him remain completely valid, the sight of him in space remains hard to ignore. Cramp didn’t, and Eddie isn’t, either.

We’ll learn a lot about the Reds over the next month, as they face the Brumbies, Drua, Rebels, Crusaders, and Brumbies again in successive weeks.

And it’s similar for the Rebels, who despite two bonus-point losses, have shown definite signs of improvement.

Carter Gordon has always had something about him and his eye for opportunity is strong. I’m not going to call him a Wallabies bolter and the rush to pitch the next young thing into a national jersey at the earliest possible moment frankly amuses me, but it is nice to watch him doing the core skills of the no.10 role really well.

Their backrow unit looks really strong, with Richard Hardwick maybe in his best vein of form since making his Wallabies debut years ago. The tight five is promising, and their front row stocks look ridiculously healthy. Jordan Uelese and Pone Fa’amausili coming off the bench is an incredible luxury for Kevin Foote and his coaching team.

As ever, it’s up to them to prove they can turn this upside into results. They were in the hunt for the playoffs until the final round last year, and have shown promise before, but maybe this really is the year they take that step.

It’s a far from scientific series of measurements to come to this conclusion of upside, and I certainly don’t expect universal agreement. But it will be fascinating to see if teams can follow on from what they’ve show already.

Where and/or what now for Super Round?
I’ve not seen any crowd numbers, but they certainly looked stronger on Friday and Saturday than last year at the very least. And yes, sections of seating behind the cameras were closed off the achieve this, but the point stands.

There’s general agreement that the concept itself is sound, even if there are misgivings about its future in Melbourne. Whether the tourism arm of the Victorian Government will be willing to sign up again to host the event remains to be seen, and equally, there’s a decision for the Super Rugby Pacific partners and broadcasters to consider whether Melbourne is the best location for the event going forward.

On one hand, while it would make a lot of sense to try somewhere in New Zealand, and I’m confident it would be a success pretty much anywhere over the ditch, my gut feeling is that the competition needs the Super Round to be successful in Australia to try and get away from the NZ-heavy narrative that has bubbled away for years.

That’s not based on anything, of course, it’s just a feeling. A full house in Dunedin or Wellington or anywhere would look great, but a successful weekend of rugby somewhere in Australia might just mean more for the competition, and for the game in this country. But where?

That’s harder to answer because there aren’t many options screaming out. Brisbane won’t happen because it’s too similar to the NRL Magic Round. Allianz Stadium in Sydney hosts the Sevens World Series leg.

Townsville would be risky depending on what time of year you want to run it. Time zone probably works against Perth. Newcastle and Wollongong wouldn’t really draw a crowd and Canberra’s stadium predates the game of rugby itself. The Gold Coast or Parramatta? I’m far from convinced.

Could Adelaide work? Or is there a way to make Melbourne work better? Maybe and I don’t know.

But there are some interesting conversations to be had, that’s for sure and certain.