Super Rugby Pacific tipping week 3: Bula Vinaka, Brumbies 'by a broken nose' in Reds stoush, Force's home comfort

If you thought Melbourne was a virtual home game for the Fijian Drua, wait until we see an actual home game for the first time this season on Saturday afternoon.

The Drua host the Crusaders on Saturday afternoon at Churchill Park in Lautoka on Fiji’s western coast, and there aren’t too many better ways to sum up what we’re going to get, other than to simply say it’s going to be epic.

And a niggly game to tip, too! The Drua were really good in Round 1 and were really good for 50 minutes against the Waratahs, too, only injuries and yellow cards and uncontested scrums to bit, all at once. The Crusaders too, were a bit shaky in the opening round, but found a bit of form last week against the Highlanders – who now everyone’s lining up to play.

It’s going to be epic in Lautoka, but it’s one of a bunch of games that shape as great contests but a nightmare to tip. Green shoots of confidence from last week may not see the weekend out, and panel tally movement seems likely.

Good luck to all, it feels like we’re all going to need it. Bula Vinaka.

LAST WEEK: Harry 5, Brett 5, Christy 5, Geoff 4, Digger 4; The Crowd 5.

OVERALL: Digger 9, Christy 9, Geoff 8, Harry 8, Brett 7; The Crowd 9.

Christy

TIPS: CHIEFS, WARATAHS, CRUSADERS, BLUES, BRUMBIES, FORCE

It’s Fiji time. They might not win, but how good is that the Drua are in Super Rugby Pacific!?

Meanwhile, spare a thought for the Highlanders. First the Blues, then the Crusaders and now the Chiefs – the most dangerous looking side to start the year. Aaron Smith’s return is huge and he’ll demand an intensity and discipline they’ve been missing, but the Chiefs will make it three on the trot.

The Waratahs showed they’re growing depth stocks by leaving out Tolu Latu. The Rebels should have gained some confidence out of their second half showing against the Canes, but the shackles are off Darren Coleman’s men and I expect them to have much polish across the side for the Rebels.

Ardie Savea’s absence is a huge blow and the Blues should find their sting in Wellington.

The Reds just don’t have it in the tight five to match the Brumbies in Canberra. Expect Stephen Larkham’s men to keep it tight. The KISS principle will be their best friend.

Lachlan Lonergan of the Brumbies celebrates. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

While expect Simon Cron’s side to edge Moana Pasifika. They’ll bounce back.

SURE THING: We won’t see any more throat-slitting gestures in 2023, but we’ll see another bombed Rieko Ioane try at some point – perhaps at the World Cup.

Harry

TIPS: CHIEFS, WARATAHS, CRUSADERS, BLUES, BRUMBIES, MOANA PASIFIKA

The poor little Highlanders will be in a world of hurt with the brutal Chiefs, who seem destined to challenge for the title.

The Waratahs should squeak out a ginger-flavoured win over the Rebels, who are hot and cold.

The Drua are finally at home, as CEO Mark Evans exulted in on our podcast this week, but the Crusaders will have plenty of support in Fiji. The visitors will have to work hard for it.

The match of the round — in terms of points and quality — should be the Hurricanes-Blues. No throats will be slit, but it’ll be rip-roaring rugby. I’ll take the Blues in the North Barrett Derby. Not by plenty.

Brumbies-Reds is spicy; niggle is likely and cards could play a part. Brumbies by a broken nose.

My upset of the round is Moana Pasifika over the Force, by virtue of an improved pack.

SURE THING: All this hurrying up of the game is making benches more important.

Brett

TIPS: CHIEFS, REBELS, CRUSADERS, BLUES, BRUMBIES, FORCE

So, it looks like there’s not as much variation in this week’s tips as I thought there might be – which interests me because I know I’ve got doubts about as many as four of this week’s games. No, I won’t say which are the other two games.

Nevertheless, the Chiefs should burn the Highlanders in the ‘Tron, and burn them to a nasty crisp I fear. And the interesting part here is that it’s hard to see how the Highlanders get out of this funk. And what happens if they start getting thumped by Australian sides, too?

The Crusaders look a bit good now for the Drua on home soil, but holy moly wouldn’t be great if the Drua got up. Similarly, the Blues look a bit strong for the Hurricanes-sans-Ardie, too, but we all know stranger and bloody infuriating things have happened involving the Blues and the winning of games.

Once again, the Australian games look the toughest to pick.

The Waratahs look to have hit a groove that even the most parochial Queenslanders will recognise at some point, but there’s just something about the way the Rebels came back and pushed the buttons of the Hurricanes that really appeals to me on Friday night. I think the Rebels gain a lot more than just four points if they win.

And I do think the Brumbies will be too good for the Reds across the board, but we all know how tight and rugged these contests have been over the last few years. The question this time around is whether or not this Reds team is as good as the one that has won four of the last five against the ACT side, and I not sure they are.

Finally, I’ll take the Force in Perth, but only because it’s in Perth. If it was in Auckland, it’s an easy pick for Moana Pasifika. If it was in Adelaide, it might be as well.

Feleti Kaitu’u of the Force  (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

SURE THING: After the refereeing boldness of “Ardie, do you ground that?” last week, watch for Paul Williams’ generous allowance for waterboys on Friday night in Hamilton, mostly because he’ll be looking for a drink himself after his five-day turnaround from the last game of the Super Round last Sunday.

Digger

TIPS: CHIEFS, WARATAHS, CRUSADERS, BLUES, BRUMBIES, FORCE

Friday night sees the Chiefs, who are certainly on a roll while the Highlanders are most certainly not, and while some much needed calvary are set to return for the southerners, the Chiefs are running too hot to ignore.

Back over in Melbourne, the Rebels showed some much needed starch last weekend but I have question marks over their ability to consistently perform week in week out. I like the look of what the Waratahs have dished up the last few weeks, will run with the Tahs.

Saturday has a run of exciting games to look forward too including what will surely be a highlight, the Drua opening home game and not a bad side to draw, the Crusaders.

Playing in Fiji is no place for the faint hearted and the Drua will be tough to manage, but I expect the Crusaders will have the composure to pull through in the end. Hopping over to Wellington and the Canes also get their first home game with the Blues visiting town.

(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

I am unfortunately leaning the Blues way for this one for three main reasons: I am not enjoying the tactics the Hurricanes are currently employing and I expect the Blues to take full advantage, the Blues will be stung after their loss last weekend in a game they will no doubt believe they should have won, and with Ardie’s suspension ruling him out I will have to take the Blues and a long hot shower.

The Reds put their opening round disappointment well behind them with a thumping win in Super Round but the Brumbies at home are a whole different kettle of fish, or a herd of ponies in this instance. Plus I expect the harder matches the Brumbies have endured in the past few weeks to stand them in good stead.

The Force are clearly determined to be my tipping nemesis this season. I will tip them again on the theory that the Force at home are a completely different prospect to the Force on the road but a sneaky fiver on Moana Pasifika may be required.

SURE THING: Expect to see no attempts at clumsy sign language from any players this week, while I wonder if Shane Harmon’s (SKY Stadium CEO) call for harsher streaker penalties in NZ this week will challenge some punter to have a crack in Wellington on Saturday night.

Geoff

TIPS: CHIEFS, REBELS, CRUSADERS, BLUES, BRUMBIES, FORCE

The Highlanders have a much improved line-up in this week and will surely put a better foot forward. But it won’t be enough to break their duck against a Chiefs side that is in cruise mode right now. Is it too much to ask for more passes like the one Damian McKenzie ripped off his left hand in the first half last week?

Damian McKenzie of the Chiefs (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

This is a huge week for the Rebels. They are better side this year, but falter against the Waratahs (who are also a better side this year) and they’ll be 0/3 and copping the same old questions. They need to be fast and fearless from the get-go, not wait for someone in the opposition to spark them off.

As much as the Drua returning to Lautoka is special, they won’t be toppling the Crusaders. Nor will the Ardie-less Canes be toppling the bouncy-backy Blues. The Canberra match looks a ripper, but as good as the Reds were last weekend, I suspect that had a lot to do with how bad the Force were. Brumbies too solid for mine.

So here’s the thing with the Force. It’s one thing to get last week’s tip wrong, but to get it wrong by 70 points? Sheesh! And then to tip them again this week! Some people say that doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity.

SURE THING: Paparazzi snaps of Eddie’s notebook are fetching six figures on the black market. Expect to see an influx of drones, blokes jumping out of hedges and fake ice-cream salespeople, all vying for the money shot.

Get your tips in now. The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon AEDT.

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