Super Rugby Pacific tipping week 5: Testing times, Razor questions and bloated sick bays

“Let’s see how they go in New Zealand,” the hot takes go, almost always trying to dismiss anything approaching a perfectly solid performance by an Australian side and particularly if it came against another Australian side.

Even while there often is an element of truth to it, I personally find it more than a bit overblown and overhyped, not unlike the next great young Australian thing after one game. As always, things are never really as good and definitely not as bad as they seem.

Regardless, this week does see a couple of Australian sides facing the so-called ultimate test, with the Brumbies jumping the ditch to Christchurch with a strategically selected side and the Waratahs with an injury list nearing 2022 Wallabies length hosting the competition-leading Chiefs at Three Dollar Sauce Stadium in Sydney.

Titles won’t be won and lost on either result, but judgements will almost certainly be handed down. And tips will quite likely be rubbed out, as what seems logical on a Thursday is quickly ignored once a ball is kicked.

But there are a couple of local derbies that appeal this weekend, too, with Moana Pasifika finally at home again after a month away and hosting the Hurricanes, and the high-flying Rebels hosting Queensland and ready to take another more-fancied scalp.

Overblown or overhyped, it will be a testing round across the weekend. And maybe this is the week we see some genuine upset to rock the tipping panel.

LAST WEEK: Digger 6, Geoff 5, Harry 5, Brett 5, Christy 5; The Crowd 5.

OVERALL: Digger 19, Geoff 18, Christy 18, Brett 17, Harry 16; The Crowd 19.

Digger leads us off after recording the first perfect round of the season last week.

Digger

TIPS: CRUSADERS, CHIEFS, HIGHLANDERS, HURRICANES, REBELS, BLUES

Crusaders and Brumbies shapes as a cracking way to start Round 5 and I find myself divided, especially with the news of Sam Whitelock out amongst others for the Crusaders. The Brumbies are a chance here but my conservatism beat me out, choosing the ‘safety’ of the home side.

Last week’s hard match against the Blues will (I think, maybe) have the Crusaders better prepared than the romp the Brumbies enjoyed.

The Waratahs at home will also fancy themselves against the Chiefs but their open attacking style will not be of use against a Chiefs side who will relish the opportunities this will present.

Highlanders and Drua is also another head-scratcher. The Drua are a fair shout here, they’re such a difficult side to play once they gain momentum, but again, I will tentatively pick the Highlanders. Not because they are at home but because the Drua have yet to show they can perform consistently on the road.

Moana Pasifika scored a famous win against the same opposition and venue last season with a thrilling golden point try, but I see no repeat of such heroics – Canes by plenty. The Rebels and Reds promises to be a tight and willing contest, but the Rebels’ overall form appeals, I think they may nab this derby.

Great again to see more Sunday fare on the calendar but unfortunately, I struggle to see much of a contest. Blues to romp in.

SURE THING: Plenty of fanfare over the appointment of Razor to the All Blacks coaching role from 2024. He’s certainly a popular choice but the big question remains, and I doubt it has been given much thought: how will he handle Mr Jones?

Crusaders head coach Scott Robertson celebrates his 100th game with a win during the Super Rugby Pacific Semi Final match between the Crusaders and the Chiefs at Orangetheory Stadium on June 10, 2022 in Christchurch, New Zealand. (Photo by Peter Meecham/Getty Images)

Geoff

TIPS: CRUSADERS, CHIEFS, DRUA, HURRICANES, REBELS, BLUES

A tasty start to the round with the evenly matched Brumbies and Crusaders both missing key personnel. This is one of those occasions where it feels safer just to stick with the home side and be done with it.

That rule doesn’t apply to Sydney where it’s hard to feel safe about tipping the Waratahs to beat the Chiefs. So I won’t. The Highlanders finally got a win last week but nobody could say they convinced anybody in doing so. If the Drua can tidy up a couple of the rough edges, they’re a good chance for the upset.

Moana Pasifika caused the biggest upset of 2022 by beating the Hurricanes at Mt Smart. They’re getting close to a win, but it won’t happen here. I’m not sure if the Rebels beating the Reds can be classed as an upset, but they are bitterly disappointed that their higher expectations weren’t met in Hamilton, and should be able to tighten up on defence this week and sneak a win.

To Sunday, and the Force are in the middle of the toughest road trip in Super Rugby. Their chance for an away win was last week.

SURE THING: Journalists who can’t help themselves will ignore putting questions about the Crusaders v Brumbies match to Scott Robertson, and press him instead about how disappointed he is that his appointment to the All Blacks’ coaching role hasn’t been brought forward to include this year’s World Cup.

Insert ‘Robertson smiles a cheeky smile, then bats the question away’ here.

Richard Hardwick of the Rebels scores a try. (Photo by Kelly Defina/Getty Images)

Brett

TIPS: CRUSADERS, CHIEFS, HIGHLANDERS, HURRICANES, REBELS, BLUES

Resting requirements and overflowing sick bays are the tales of the tape in the Friday night games, and while it would be great to see full-strength or close-to Brumbies and Waratahs sides taking on the Crusaders and Chiefs, the rugby gods and their administrative overlords have other ideas.

Still, I’m prepared to sacrifice both tips if that’s the price for a couple of upsets.

The Highlanders might be in for a hard time in Fiji, but the roof in Dunedin and the lack of humidity and warmth will work in their favour. The Blues on Sunday will have perhaps an even easier time with the Force midway through their proper, old-school three-week Super Rugby tour.

Moana Pasifika will give the Hurricanes some curry, I have no doubt. They might even be the best chance for an upset for the weekend. The only question around them is the significant one: can they go the distance with the ‘Canes? I don’t think they can. Not in Round 5.

Rebels v Reds will be a ripping contest. You’d like to play the Reds backline behind the Rebels pack at the moment, and that would still be a hell of a side, even without a Carter Gordon and a Fraser McReight.

It’s a flip-of-a-coin game; the Reds would start favourites in Brisbane, but I can’t see how they do it in Melbourne. They’re not consistent enough right at this point.

SURE THING: Harry Wilson will find himself throwing unusually long passes in Melbourne, as teammates give him whatever the hell is enough room to not cop a Gilbert in the face.

AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND – MARCH 18: Dalton Papalii and Beauden Barrett of the Blues look on during the round four Super Rugby Pacific match between Blues and Crusaders at Eden Park, on March 18, 2023, in Auckland, New Zealand. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

Christy

TIPS: CRUSADERS, CHIEFS, HIGHLANDERS, HURRICANES, REBELS, BLUES

Oh lord. Crunch week has arrived in Super Rugby Pacific and, unfortunately, it doesn’t look like it’ll reflect well for Australian rugby.

The Brumbies were always going to rest some of their Test stars given the current Rugby Australia protocols in this World Cup year, and it just so happens that the Crusaders stand to benefit from a severely undermanned side.

Darren Coleman’s Waratahs, meanwhile, are dropping like flies and although they’ll scramble together a starting side, it’s starting to look bleak. The Chiefs, on the other hand, rested a number of their stars against the Rebels and then took their foot off the gas and cruised to a comfortable win last week.

Friday night’s gloomy picture can be reversed only under one condition – the Rebels and Reds put on a show.

The contest looms as a cracker. The Reds have plenty of stars, but they all come out of the tight five – which is worrisome in rugby. If the Reds can repel the Rebels’ front row, they’ll win and win well. But that looks difficult against a front-row starting to fire and a lineout proving effective for Carter Gordon.

The Hurricanes and Blues should win comfortably. As for the Highlanders, their clash under the roof against the Fijian Drua shapes as an entertaining, open affair. Unfortunately, they won’t benefit from the heat.

SURE THING: Questions will be asked about Rugby Australia’s World Cup protocol of resting players. But don’t shoot Stephen Larkham – he’s trapped between a rock and a hard place.

Coach Stephen Larkham of the Brumbies during the Super Rugby trial match between the Highlanders and the Brumbies on January 31, 2014 in Queenstown, New Zealand. (Photo by Rob Jefferies/Getty Images)

Harry

TIPS: CRUSADERS, CHIEFS, HIGHLANDERS, HURRICANES, REDS, BLUES.

Last week was Kids Week. This week is Kiwi Week.

Super Rugby Pacific enters the winnowing phase. Nobody is winning it yet, but this is when some dreams die. With the Drua and Pasifika both improved, there’s not much of an easy match proposition for anyone.

The Brumbies are solid. They are deep. But the Crusaders are the same. It’s the fundamental matchup. Purely because the game is in Christchurch: I’ll tip the home team.

The Chiefs will have too many tricks for the Waratahs over the duration of the match, and likely gain a quick lead. If the Allianz boys have to ketchup, it will cost too much.

If the Drua were in Dunedin a week ago, I’d take the Fijian lads, but I feel this will be a down week for them.

I am a big Moana fan, having been fortunate enough to meet many of the cheerful players and friendly back-office folks. I’ll be hoping I’m wrong, but I sense the Hurricanes will play well this week at Mount Smart.

The Reds have been up and down; the Rebels have been a revelation. This seems to be the game of the round on form. JOC and Harry Wilson, pushing to be on Eddie’s list, to be the difference.

The Blues in a canter.

SURE THING: In this day and age of maximal head safety, falcons deserve to be a stat taken far more seriously.

CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA – MARCH 11: James O’Connor of the Reds looks on during the round three Super Rugby Pacific match between ACT Brumbies and Queensland Reds at GIO Stadium, on March 11, 2023, in Canberra, Australia. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

Get your tips in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon AEDT.

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