Everyone knows that the AFL has long coveted expansion into rugby league territory.
While it can be argued that the growth of the AFL in New South Wales and Queensland has been far greater than the NRL’s in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, the Victorian-born code is still an extremely long way behind in the eastern states, especially in New South Wales.
Sure, the AFL have done well over the past 40 years to ensure that the Swans were successful, and in doing so they have outgrown each rugby league club in the city individually in terms of attendance, something the Storm haven’t achieved in Melbourne, despite having every league supporter in the city behind them.
Yet when sat next to the entirety of rugby league, it becomes abundantly clear that the Swans are not much more than a secondary sporting franchise that has only garnered such figures due to a small core following. The Swans are novelty for Sydney’s primary NRL fans, looking for a night out or a bandwagon to jump on.
Sure, there are some core AFL fans in Sydney, just like there are people who primarily follow rugby league in Melbourne. However on face value, at a two-code preferred level, both cities would produce around the same ratio of support, with Melbourne 95:5 AFL and Sydney probably closer to 90:10 NRL.
So let’s take a look at the facts and figures surrounding the NRL and the AFL in Sydney.
Attendance
Misguided and one-eyed AFL fans often claim that the Swans being arguably the biggest individual sporting club in Sydney, must make Australian rules the biggest sport in the city. However, what they fail to grasp in saying that is the concept of market share, and the fact that the Swans were in a one-club AFL city for thirty years.
They already had an established fan base in South Melbourne, whose supporters continue to prop up their attendance and membership numbers. This dominance of the limited Sydney AFL market is shown in the failure of GWS to draw within even half of the average NRL club attendance in Sydney.
The NRL has nine clubs competing for the same audience in Sydney, just as the AFL has nine clubs in Melbourne. Now the Storm, who have a lot of secondary support from primary AFL fans spread out across many clubs, have surpassed North Melbourne and are closing in on St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs in terms of attendance.
It took some time for the Swans to become a big deal in Sydney. (Photo by Matt King/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
But if everyone were forced to choose their favourite club, the secondary support would dry up and the Storm would be left with their core support, which would most likely see them fall below the Kangaroos in this scenario. The same goes for the Swans in Sydney.
In terms of raw figures, the best way to solve any debate involving unequal fractions is to compare them with the same denominator. In this case, if we were to add all of the average attendances of every Sydney NRL club from last season, we would get a figure of around 137,000. In Sydney, the AFL would be 35,000 in total.
If rugby league, like the AFL, had two clubs in Sydney, they would theoretically each average 68,500 people through the turnstiles each game. That makes the Swans’ average home crowd of 29,424 look a little smaller. And when the combined figure is averaged and dragged down by their cross-town counterparts GWS, the true AFL figure is a measly 17,000, the same as the leading NRL clubs, and less than the Storm’s 18,000 in Melbourne.
The AFL averages less in Sydney across its two clubs than the NRL does in Melbourne. In putting the Swans’ 29,424 average back into the context of the Melbourne clubs, Carlton, Collingwood and Richmond each average in the high 40,000’s, with Essendon and Melbourne around 39,000 each.
Ratings
Rugby league is the nation’s premier television sport, so much so that when nationwide ratings and attendance figures are combined for a total of 140.78 million, it still kicks well clear of the AFL at 133.28 million. Yes, the NRL, excluding State of Origin, has a bigger national combined audience than the AFL. Shock, horror!
Television ratings in Sydney last season were one sided. Take for instance the AFL decider, in which everyone in Sydney would at least nominally have backed the Swans. The game averaged a viewership of 375,000 people, clearly boosted by the participation of the Sydney club.
However, later that night, the NRL’s preliminary final between Souths and Penrith, rated 414,000, whilst also drawing a crowd of 50,034 to Accor Stadium. For reference, the grand final a week later rated a whopping 837,000, and drew a capacity crowd of 82,415, despite being a one-sided contest from the start.
Again, in television ratings, rugby league is king!
Media
Rugby League dominates the Sydney media. From the news, to the papers and the radio, rugby league gets far more coverage than the AFL can even dream of.
Every night, the first three or four sports stories on the news are NRL related, no matter which network you manage to land on. The AFL might get a quick wrap after that, if lucky. The same goes with the papers, where the NRL usually gets seven or eight pages of the sports section, while the AFL usually gets one or two. Radio is very much the same.
The myth of membership
As a starting note on memberships in Sydney, we’d be better off not wasting our time. Rugby league’s model of membership to the licensed league club’s means that football club membership is a largely recent innovation, and the numbers are basically meaningless. For example, the Sydney Roosters had 18,000 members last season, while their league club, Easts Leagues, had 41,000 members, for a combined total of 59,000.
Rugby league membership has taken on a new form in recent years. (Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)
This cultural difference between the two sports explains why GWS have a higher membership than all the NRL clubs in the city, despite drawing less than half of the average NRL club attendance at 6,013 fans last year. Just like a second NRL team would be in Melbourne, the Giants are without even a semi-decent following due to every supporter of the minor code in the city already following the established Swans.
Rugby league fans seem to be cottoning on to membership in the last few seasons, with Parramatta, Souths and Brisbane each reaching 30,000 members, while again, as further proof of the cultural differences, Melbourne hit the 40,000 mark last year. Watch this space over the next decade.
Conclusion
Sydney loves the NRL, and each of its nine clubs individually, as well as the Swans. They blend in as an equal to each NRL club, again indicative of that 90:10 ratio in favour of rugby league. The Giants don’t even look like entering the equation.
Thus, it is clear that although the AFL probably holds a slightly larger market share in Sydney than the NRL does in Melbourne, it does not mean the AFL has any real significance, relative to the NRL in Sydney. Sydney loves its version of footy, just as much as Melbourne loves theirs.
clipper
Roar Rookie
This was a much better analysis than the actual article. The funniest point in the article was 'Thus, it is clear that although the AFL probably holds a slightly larger market share in Sydney than the NRL does in Melbourne' - there is no probably about it, AFL does have a bigger share of the market in Sydney than NRL does in Melbourne - better average ratings, better membership and far, far better attendance - the Swans are the most attended team in Sydney, the Storm the lease attended team in Melbourne and that's with them being the best team in AFL/NRL for the last few decades - what will happen if the fall out of the 8, as Sheek has already noted.
jammel
Roar Rookie
Great article I thought; sound analysis. I've always personally been sceptical of Melbourne being a "sporting capital" lol - and of VFL generally :) :) That's having lived in Canberra, Melbourne, Osaka, London, Singapore and Sydney throughout my life - indeed, when I was in Melbourne, a great deal of people never had anything to do with AFL I found.
Maxtruck
Roar Rookie
Not sure about Sydney but the AFL must be doing it a bit tough on the Gold Coast. I am a member at Emerald Lakes Golf Club and have just received an email offering all members of the golf club 4 free tickets to the Suns/cats game this weekend, This is a "all members" offer , So the AFL or the Suns is giving away $220 worth of tickets to potentially a couple of thousand people?
Cliffo
Roar Rookie
I agree but AFL do include it
Randy
Roar Rookie
I dunno, AFL is a bloody slog to sit through...
Randy
Roar Rookie
not at all, i'm saying its a negative for NRL
.kraM
Roar Rookie
Maybe if the made up stats were left out
.kraM
Roar Rookie
Is that meant to be a positive for NRL? Not quite sure your argument there
.kraM
Roar Rookie
Sydney would get 68,000 crowd if there was only two teams? Oh sweet summer child
GoGWS
Roar Guru
Oh dear. You know you’re struggling when you pull out the old ‘eastern states’ or ‘eastern seaboard’ concept to underpin your argument. You could have saved yourself a lot of time and gone to a single metric from which all others are serviced - revenue. The NRL competition, and NRL clubs, are significantly behind the AFL and AFL clubs… significantly. And profits are not the metric to monitor- the AFL isn’t trying to maximise profit in any year… they are investing surplus in game development and returning most revenue to the players and clubs. On expansion, it is a difficult and long process but the basic fact is the AFL has established four teams in NRL territory and the NRL has only managed to establish one team on AFL territory - thems the facts….
.kraM
Roar Rookie
Excellent cherry picking, solid analysis
.kraM
Roar Rookie
Apart from the made up “stats”
Munro Mike
Roar Rookie
What a piece of utter rubbish this article is. Firstly - based on your 'conclusion' of "Sydney loves its version of footy, just as much as Melbourne loves theirs.". Sydney is far, far less a home fortress for the NRL than for example Melbourne is for the AFL. Why? Because Sydney is the participation and cultural home of soccer in Australia. The NRL also still suffers from the age old Union/League schism. The '2 code preferred' doesn't really play out simply because the NRL isn't as all inclusive across Sydney as the author seems to think. SO this conclusion I start with as asserting to be totally wrong. On Memberships......gee.......I can get a 5 year membership at Dolphins Leagues club for $20........for the 5 years!!! THAT is NOT a footy club membership. You seem to have a pretty ordinary understand between the distinction of going to a pokies venue for dinner and being a paid up member of a footy club with voting rights and attendance rights. Even after Covid and economic tightening - the AFL 2022 membership ladder showed growth for most clubs; and the big 4 Melbourne clubs (Carl, Coll, Rich, Ess) combining for over 375,000 paid up members. The bottom 4 Melbourne clubs over 226,000 between them. The full list of 9 Melb clubs had over 682K members, add in Geelong less than an hour down the road and that's over 753K members. No comparison to a entry membership at a pokies venue. That you even went there?!?!? Compare those numbers with an RSL or Bowls club yeah......but not footy club membership. The viewership numbers presented are always a bit of fun. The author doesn't seem to comprehend context and has pushed the 'average' viewers metric. It ignores a couple of significant factors. One is unique viewers vs average viewers. The example being the 2022 one sided Grand Final reached a 5.76 million viewers but averaged out at 3.06 million (on Channel 7). The longer the broadcast - the greater the gap between peak/unique and average. An AFL match is a longer broadcast - well and truly - than an NRL match. So while on 2022 numbers - the NRL combined H&A, preseason/finals, SoO/Rep all combined for 149.35 mill viewers; it played out as 224.025 million TV viewing hours. The AFL pre season 2022 was hidden away exclusive to Kayo week 1 and then FoxFooty week 2. In the end - the AFL preseason, H&A and Finals all combined for 126.524 million; however that equated to 316.310 million TV viewing hours. THAT is where you see the flesh on the bones. The NRL numbers will be far closer (unique/peak vs average); the AFL numbers further apart - - but even so - - the average audience numbers are a deeper audience. Note also that the NRL (2022) runs over a 25 round 24 games per side season. With generally 8 games a week; the NRL starts prior to the AFL (23 round, 22 games per side season - in 2022) and the Grand Final is played AFTER the AFL GF and in 'clean air' so to speak. With respect to 'average' viewers; the NRL has less overlap of programming. i.e. with 8 matches of shorter duration the NRL are even able to schedule back to back Friday night games. Less overlap means better 'average' viewership' across games rather than the AFL scenario where viewers match ditch a game that looks beyond doubt and switch to another game that has already started. It's facile to compare as if apples and apples. And that's without delving into the split across the variety of different markets. The NRL keeps hammering effectively the same captive market. The AFL provides far greater access to a national market. With this - comes limitations - i.e. average audience of matches in Adelaide or Perth will often be down compared to average audience of matches in Melbourne (especially 'derby' type matches). And of course there's time zones. Yes - the NRL has the Auckland Warriors. The AFL has 2 teams in Perth. 2 teams in Adelaide. The NRL has the Eastern seaboard and the Warriors......again - no comparison. And of course - - the crux of the article about the 'incursion factor'; the AFL incursion audience is split via 2 teams in each of Qld and NSW; the NRL.........has one total team in all of Vic, SA and WA. Then factor in total attendance - AFL had 6.752 million vs NRL 3.705 million. Don't need to go there......do we? Melbourne vs Sydney?? Well......we know the NRL average attendance is bolstered by the Broncos. Pull them out and the Sydney numbers are even more pathetic. And participation - - the NRL is practically non existent at grassroots level; with less than Rugby Union. After all this time and Union and the Rebels are the biggest hinderance to the NRL in Melbourne (time to merge???). Variously AFL has been reported to have surpassed Union in Sydney.
PGNEWC
Roar Rookie
Very true ---the AFL I hear in QLD are perhaps taking over at school boy levels there. But even travelling around the Hunter, New England and the Central West as I do I have seen over the last decade in the schools the H goal posts gradually being replaced by the Chopsticks.
EastsFootyFan
Roar Guru
I think the "both codes claim national status" point isn't quite right. The NRL has "National" in the name, but even V'Landys doesn't have pretentions for SA and WA in truth. However, what the NRL does have is a MUCH stronger connection to the Pacific and New Zealand. From a strategic perspective, the NRL in some ways ought to look at further expansion in NZ before SA or WA, because there is more overall potential there AND it helps build the strength of the Kiwis, which in turn makes for more interesting internationals with NZ. Those are things the AFL just can't do so there is a comparative advantage there.
EastsFootyFan
Roar Guru
Great piece. The one thing I think you missed, is that the Swans are basically living off the rotting carcass of the Waratahs and Rugby Union more generally. I can remember Union mates who wouldn't miss a Tahs game back in the 2000s and they were averaging 25-30k a game. None of those guys go any more, but because they all hate League they are now suddenly Swans fans.
GWSingapore
Roar Rookie
I am currently watching on the AFL International Streaming West Coast v GWS. Played in Perth in front of 40 000 plus. I don't think the AFL is too worried about GWS small crowds at home when the extra match GWS provides can draw significant away crowds. Earlier this afternoon Essendon drew over 40 000 to Marvel Stadium against Gold Coast. That is 80 000 fans to matches that would not exist but for GC and GWS. You have completed a lot of research for this article. However, I cannot see the point. No-one would suggest AFL has a bigger following in Western Sydney than the NRL. Both codes claim national status. So in reality it is the big picture that counts. By total revenue the NRL is still significantly smaller than the AFL. In 2022 the AFL had an income of $870 million compared to the NRL’s $593 million. Incidently, I would be very interested to know how many people in Western Sydney have a greater interest in watching international soccer on all platforms than either AFL or NRL?
oldman
Roar Rookie
The article is everything but impartial. I have never met anyone, even at the AFL (who are not known for their impartiality), claim that because attendances are larger at swans games therefore its the biggest sport in Sydney. Using the total number of fans then dividing to leave two teams is absolutely illogical and is just as crazy as the apparent claim that the swans are #1 due to their large attendance. Then only listing the 5 largest clubs in Melbourne for attendance without the other 4 is also biased. Then, matching up a prelim to the NRL GF also doesn't stack up. If the AFL GF had been even remotely competitive, this would almost certainly rise. Media is accurate - but no one was claiming it wasn't. I would also think using Brisbane (a non-sydney team and arguably the largest in the NRL), is very disingenuous. Its all just a one eyed view of NRL - exactly what the article aims to point out in apparent Swans supporters. As for the 90:10 ratio, that appears just made up too using opinion as fact.
Cliffo
Roar Rookie
Perth Bears
Dionysus
Roar Rookie
I think that whilst AFL have been doing a lot better than the NRL over the last 40 years or so, they have a different problem to the NRL when it comes to expansion. There is no doubt that the AFL have better geographical coverage of Australia but their ability to expand outside of that is seriously limited. Whilst Rugby League is not the most flourishing sport world wide there is significantly more interest and opportunity outside of these shores than there is for AFL. The ability to hold a World Cup Competition, even one as uneven as the Rugby League one, is something that AFL can only dream of as is any resumption of the AU/NZ test matches. Origin is massive for the NRL and is content that is in demand the world over. This is a concept that has never seemed to catch on in AFL. I would love to see the NRL expand in this country particularly in Perth. I can see the arguments for another NZ team or even a Pacific team which population wise probably makes more sense than a Tassie or even an Adelaide team. I have even seen suggestions for a Pommie invitational slot with changing teams each year though I think the costs of that won't stand up.