Before any Wallabies squad was picked, another carefully coordinated release of info last week revealed what we all suspected to be true: Super Rugby Pacific games are being played in a quicker timeframe, games are getting moving sooner, and the average points per game has gone up significantly.
The release of the information, via SANZAAR, Rugby Australia and New Zealand Rugby at 10:01am last Thursday, carried the same headline and painted the same picture:
“Law variations inspire record scores and reduced stoppages in Super Rugby Pacific.”
The crux of the release was one of time no longer lost and of lost time drastically reduced.
Time taken to restart after tries, for substitutions, and for the handing out of warnings and final warnings and this-time-we-really-mean-it final warnings, and of actual cards has all been cut pretty much in half.
Total elapsed time in games, from kick-off to the final whistle, has been reduced by more than six minutes on average, from 98 minutes down to 91 minutes, 46 seconds.
The big one was average points per match: up from 53 points per game in 2022 to 61 points per game this season.
When the law variations were announced, expectation was around a probable increase in ball-in-play (BIP) time, but this significant drop in total elapsed time has been the major win. It also kills off the ‘stop the clock’ line of thinking as a way of regaining lost time in games.
BIP was noticeable for its absence in Thursday’s announcement. All the conversations I’ve had and anecdotal evidence I’ve heard has suggested that BIP has increased – albeit more in NZ games, than those played in Australia – but the lack of mention among this information drop only leads me to wonder if BIP perhaps hasn’t changed that much at all.
If it had gone up in line with these other little wins, I’m sure it would’ve been mentioned.
But as I wrote after Round 1, while ever total elapsed time is so significantly down, BIP increases (or not) don’t actually matter. Reducing total elapsed time is having the same expected effect, and the fatigue factor is definitely there in games.
(Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
With these figures confirming everything suspected, I did start wondering about which teams had been the best at taking advantage of the fatigue factor in games and which teams seem to be having the most trouble with it.
There would be a couple of measures that could apply – penalties conceded being one, certainly – but given the average points per game was a major element of the announcement, I figure tries scored and conceded late in games would be a pretty fair indication as well.
After all, as defences tire, more tries have to be scored and conceded. But who does it best? Or worst?
With average points per game up, it’s worth adding here that number of tries scored have shot up as well.
Whereas last year we saw 6.9 tries per game scored, this season it’s up to 8.4 tries per game. In 2022, 625 tries were scored across the 91 games, and in 2023, we’re already up to 301 after 36 games.
For like-for-like purposes, the first six rounds last season saw 230 tries scored, also across 36 games.
And three teams in the top eight with negative for-and-against records suggests that defences certainly are tiring.
But what constitutes ‘late in games’? You can’t just call it the last ten minutes, because games are opening up much earlier than that, and you similarly couldn’t just call it after halftime either.
So for the sake of creating a mark somewhere, I’ve drawn the line after 55th minutes, by which point most teams seem to be well into their bench use this season.
But the first thing that became apparent in counting tries scored in the last 25 minutes was that a surprising number of tries have been scored in the 54th minute of games this season! Like, upwards of a dozen. Nevertheless, they’ve not been counted in what follows in this exercise.
There were a few things to conclude. Seven teams – the Blues, Chiefs, Fijian Drua, Highlanders, Melbourne Rebels, Queensland Reds, and NSW Waratahs – essentially score the same number of tries in the last 25 minutes of games as they concede. Some of them will score one or two more, the others concede one or two more, but they’re essentially break-even over the closing stages.
Three teams really put the foot down, and two of them make sense. The Brumbies have scored 40 per cent of their season’s tally of tries in the final 25 minutes or games, and the Hurricanes have scored 46 per cent of theirs.
The third one is really interesting: the Western Force have scored 13 of their 23 tries (57%) late in games. They’ve scored nine tries in the last 25 minutes of their last three losses alone. Maybe games aren’t long enough for them.
At the other end of the scale, it probably won’t be too surprising to read the winless Moana Pasifika have let in 17 of their 41 tries (41%) in the closing stages, but it might be surprising to read that the Crusaders have conceded half their tries (nine of 18 conceded) in the last 25 minutes – though it is only three in the last three games.
The Hurricanes have similarly conceded half their tally (also nine of 18) in the closing stages, too.
Some other observations:
- The unbeaten Chiefs have scored just over a quarter of their tries in the last 25 minutes, but only five of their 14 tries conceded came in the last 25 minutes
- The second-place Hurricanes score nearly half their tries in the closing stages, as mentioned, but also let in half their total tries conceded in this same period
- The Brumbies, in third place, have scored 40 per cent of their tries in the closing stages – and Eight in the last three games – but allow less than a quarter of all their tries conceded in the last 25 minutes
- The Crusaders have conceded half their tries in the last 25 minutes, but have only scored six of their 25 tries in this time
- The Blues have scored only 23 per cent of their 22 tries late in games, but have conceded only three of 18 (17%) – the lowest in the competition
- Moana Pasifika haven’t scored a try in the last 25 minutes in five of their six games, to go with conceding 41 per cent of tries in this timeframe
- Queensland, while conceding 39 per cent of tries in the closing stages, have only crossed themselves six times in the final 25 minutes (24%), out of 25 tries scored in total.
What it amounts to is bench depth, how teams are using their replacements, and how well teams really can ‘play out the full 80’.
Seven of the 12 teams concede more than a third of their tries in final 25 minutes of games, but three of those seven teams also happen to be the three-top teams from New Zealand. In total, 35 per cent of all tries scored in 2023 have come in the last 25 minutes in games.
Fatigue is affecting different teams different ways, clearly.
What will be interesting to watch over the remaining rounds will be to see whether teams can gain late-game fitness and actually reduce the number of tries they concede over the closing stages of games.
Or, indeed, whether games open up even further.
Brett McKay
Expert
No, just counted tries as I stated, West. I did arrived at 55 minutes based on when teams seem to be making most bench changes, but that was the extent of it..
WEST
Roar Guru
Just read the article.. Have you done any research into subs?? How many each team makes.. or who uses the full bench? That might explain some of the last quarters. If subs are used to early or to late. Rugby seems to be more and more about the bench these days. Or at least just as important who starts, or who finishes. This RWC will be the bench cup. Team management, and judgment of player fatigue will be critical.
WEST
Roar Guru
That’s why they started 7s Rugby! Quick and fast. Then this 10s was tried out. But Rugby is Rugby. As you said, seems to be going well up North, fan numbers look pretty good. In NZ, Rugby isn’t the most popular sport, hasn’t been for awhile! Basketball has far bigger numbers and far more youth participation. But that’s poor marketing and even poorer business management by NZRU. The game has evolved, the rule book is still far to fat! Most recent times it’s not just 15 players, it’s the full 23 that gets involved. Never has the bench been so vital to success in rugby. The Boks really mastered this with a full pack ready to replace the starters, without losing quality or quantity. Players can be replaced temporarily to have a Head Injury Assessment and can come back on if they pass the test but are off permanently if they fail it. They can also be replaced temporarily for a blood injury, for up to 15 minutes, or if they have been injured as a result of foul play. Then you have tactical substitutions. Then if a prop gets yellow or red-carded, a substitute must come on for the next scrum meaning someone, usually a back, gets pulled out of the action! Anyone remember when someone got injured.. You might just have to play with 14 players?! It use to only be 4 subs, eight was the last increase, from seven, coming in 2009. Thats the biggest difference in rugby in my opinion, some players train all week to only play 10-20 minutes! Fact that we can change half the team, fatigue shouldn’t really be a big problem.. unless your team isn’t fit and conditioned enough. But that’s a team management problem, or the individual athlete isn’t doing the work. Fuk.. not sure where I was going with this rant now :laughing:
East Coast Aces
Roar Rookie
Not really. NRL still see the good giants like the Storms Nelson. Scrums and lineouts will still be important. But mediocre players that are big will probably find things tougher.
Otago Man
Roar Rookie
The Highlanders have been slammed with injuries, not sure why them more than others but maybe something to do with too much bulk. They ended up playing Finn Hurley against the Force late in the game who had not played a game of 1st class rugby by then.
ScottD
Roar Guru
Yes, that fitness improvement might (maybe) translate to a RWC advantage
ScottD
Roar Guru
Fair enough, but every teams has the same squad size. So what this tells me is that either; 1. the Force development players who are running on as finishers are better drilled than the oppositions development; or 2. the Force squad is suffering less injuries that the opposition teams (which anecdotally seems to be to be true) so perhaps this is an overall squad fitness issue? ; or 3. The Force has few internationals so isn't having to rest players and is therefore able to have a full squad available for every game (excluding injuries), which also seems true. I suspect it is a combination of all three of the above.
ScottD
Roar Guru
Really good comment Brett.
ScottD
Roar Guru
I think that it is mainly due to the fact that they have a real evenness across the squad from top to bottom and they have focussed on fitness. So what they lack in top end talent at the front they make up for with the same talent plus fitness at the back. Combine that with a lack of true fitness of some of their opposition which results in them switching off because they are tired and this leads to opportunities opening up. But at the end of the day you have to be good enough to take advantage of these and the Force finishers are.
ScottD
Roar Guru
The reality is that if the game time is being played out without pauses, then fitness becomes THE governing/key factor in the last 20 minutes. This is independent of whether the players on the field are internationals or not, the reality is that every squad is equally fatigued so the fittest squad is the one that can take advantage of the gaps that open up. Coaches need to make sure that the 5 or 6 development players in their squad are just as fit as the internationals. No excuses for them not to be.
ScottD
Roar Guru
Leroy, I think the better measure isn't "how many players" but" how many of the starting 15 players" who are injured.
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
I’m aware all are playing under new directives Highlander , I’m not sure some care as much as others tho . Anyway applying the shot clock for penalties and conversions which always was a Law anyway but just being enforced now. But the subjective time wasting at a lineout for example ? Try enforcing that playing in the snow or a wet Murrayfield . My concern simply put is that the basic tenants of our game are being cast aside in the interests of ” making it better ” ..attracting new converts . What BS ! Its the greatest game on earth already ..You want to attract fans ..Just win ! As a Kiwi you will understand that . Hypothetically if NZ teams including the ABs keep losing, you not going to see crowds dwindle ? Oh yes you are ! And no you are not going to turn Georgia or the USA or anyone else into a genuine rugby nation . But they will win fans if they start winning ..not just regardless of the Laws and most don’t and never will understand the laws either . If you really want to grow rugby simplify it !
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
World Rugby chairman Sir Bill Beaumont added: “As a sport, a movement and a family, we must always challenge ourselves to be better. That means taking time to consider what fans and players want the future of our sport to be, a future where more people want to play and support the game, where injury risk is reducing and where all involved in the game have their say.. Have the fans ever been really canvassed as to what they want ? Is fatiguing players risk reducing ? Do all have their say ? oh and Billy I don't get the family feeling with you . Maybe just me . What a load of BS . Until covid hit or more appropriately until the mentally deranged responses to covid hit , rugby appeared in good health generally . And finally are we really in competition for fans with other sports ? I support and love F1 , Cricket , Athletics ...I see no conflict. space for all. Stop tampering with rugby to " be competitive" ..That's my ramble .
Angus
Roar Rookie
Amazing analysis. I’m really looking forward to seeing how their fitness transfers to the international games. I’m sure this “fatigue factor” would have increased their fitness dramatically and hopefully their brains!
Bliksem
Roar Rookie
I also think they are improving week after week, however disciplined remains an ongoing issue.
Bliksem
Roar Rookie
Maybe they get to the position when they have nothing to lose and can play without fear. The Force also have impact players on the bench that can come on earlier to lift the tempo.
Tooly
Roar Rookie
I’ve said it all before . Climb into hemped square and exchange punches for 3 minutes . You will appreciate the stool and the minutes rest . If you want players to perform at their best they must have rest .
The Late News
Roar Rookie
Great shout out to all the Roarers who attended the inaugural Late News gig in Sydney! The discussions between the ex referee and the adamant supporter was well worth it! Our sponsors were happy that we didn't go too far over budget. But I warned them! Anyway for those who couldn't make it, there's always next time!
Brett McKay
Expert
Let's put it another way JN - what SRP definitely didn't need was more boring sludge that was becoming too commonplace as COVID hit. Even the Premiership in the UK made some tweaks around how the breakdown was/is policed, and the game became immediately better. So I get where you're coming from, even agree with elements of it, but even in conceding we perhaps don't necessarily need 1.5 more tries per game on average, I still think the game trying to be more entertaining is a good thing. It's not just other sports rugby is competing with for eyeballs and entertainment dollars, it's the movies, it's golf and other outdoor pursuits, it's Netflix, Youtube, Spotify, etc. To stay stagnant would actualy be to go backwards..
Highlander
Roar Guru
yet the boring Northern Hemisphere rugby fans seem quite OK with things as they are You have been playing under the same shot clock time improvements all year. The WR laws for all came in on Jan 1. Ire v Fra had 46 mins ball in play – best game of the year