The Roar's State of Origin expert tips and predictions: NSW v Queensland, Men and Women's Game 1

Hey Roarers!

It’s State of Origin time! I’m so excited, like a kid at Christmas.

State against state, mate against mate. Families are divided, friendships crumble – it’s just glorious.

And of course, what would the build-up to Origin be if there wasn’t a bit of drama?

The NSW men’s camp was rocked with the news that Latrell Mitchell was ruled out with a calf injury, and Nathan Cleary is being watched like a hawk with a dodgy wisdom tooth. Tommy Turbo is back for the Blues, while his brother Jake is on the injury list.

Skipper James Tedesco will be out to show everyone why he deserves the number one jersey, while Tevita Pangai Jr will just be out to prove why he deserves to be there at all.

North of the border, Big Papa announced his retirement from rep footy the day before the team was to be announced. Then Queensland superstars Kalyn Ponga and Dane Gagai were left out in the cold, with Reece Walsh settling into the fullback role and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow taking over as centre.

The men kick off tonight at Adelaide Oval at 8:05pm (AEST). Queensland are the reigning champions after taking the 2022 series 2-1, thanks to a last-minute length of the field try to Ben Hunt.

The Blues will be looking to make amends for letting the win slip through their fingers and head into Game I as favourites.

Then tomorrow night the women take the field for their series opener at Commbank Stadium at 7:45pm. It’s the first time there are two games for the women, with the Blues taking out a 20-14 win over the Maroons in the only Origin game played in 2022.

And with players like Kezzie Apps, Tamika Upton, Isabelle Kelly, Ali Brigginshaw and Millie Boyle, you just know it’s going to be special.

The biggest and best spectacle on the rugby league calendar is finally here and we have two fantastic series ahead of us.

The Roar’s experts have given their tips for both games, remember to get your tips in by 5pm if you would like to be part of the Crowd’s tips for Game 1.

I’m going to let our only expert who has actually been part of Origin to kick off the predictions.

Michael Hagan

Men

Queensland by 4

First try scorer – Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

Player of the Match – Cameron Munster

Queensland have a great spine, a mobile forward pack and some outstanding speed/ skill in their backline. They thrive on being underdogs and have had a great preparation (without incident).

Women

Queensland by 6

First try scorer – Tamika Upton

Player of the Match – Zahara Temara

Queensland have a great forward pack with Shannon Mato up front and the crafty Ali Brigginshaw at lock.

Plenty of speed and power in their back five and two clever halves in Zahara Temara and Tarryn Aiken.

Mary Konstantopoulos

Men

New South Wales by 6

First try scorer – Josh Addo-Carr

Player of the Match –  James Tedesco

I’m tipping the Blues and focused on what my heart is telling me rather than what my head is. The loss of Latrell Mitchell is a huge blow to the Blues, but for me there are too many players in that Blues team that have the potential for match-winning plays.

James Tedesco and his Roosters may be struggling, but I expect him to be a standout in Game I. The key to NSW winning this game will be to limit the impact of the huge Queenslander bench and also to contain Reece Walsh, who I expect to also light it up in Game I.

Women

New South Wales by 4

First try scorer – Isabelle Kelly

Player of the Match – Jesse Southwell

The margin in women’s State of Origin has been decided by an average of just six points or less since 2018 and I think this year will be no different. Queensland have returned to a winning formula, with Tamika Upton, Zahara Temara, Tarryn Aiken, Destiny Brill all back from their successful 2021 campaign with Ali Brigginshaw switching back to lock. 

Despite this proven formula, I am tipping the Blues based on the strength and firepower of their back five. Isabelle Kelly has proved challenging for Queensland to contain almost every year and even though the halves pairing is new, I am expecting Rachael Pearson and Jesse Southwell to excel at this level.

Tim Gore

Men

Queensland by 14

First try scorer – Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

Player of the Match – Cameron Munster

How NSW manages to pick a dysfunctional team so frequently bewilders me. Pangai Jnr has never displayed the type of consistent application or defensive talent that is essential at Origin level. Tyson Frizell was once a superb player but now he’s a solid club man and too slow.

There is too much here for Cam Murray, Payne Haas and Api Koroisau to cover up for here. This could be a flogging – and this isn’t a stellar Maroons outfit by any stretch…

Women

New South Wales by 10

First try scorer – Millie Boyle

Player of the Match – Millie Boyle

I really like the look of the Blues forward pack. I think they’ll outmuscle their opponents and lay the platform for a Blues win.

Stuart Thomas

Men

Queensland by 4

First try scorer – David Fifita

Player of the Match – Cameron Munster

Queensland will do as they have so many times before and defy the bookies and public opinion, with an Origin 1 win for the ages. Expect a low-scoring affair and Reece Walsh, Cameron Munster and Harry Grant to star for the Maroons.

Women

Queensland by 11

First try scorer – Julia Robinson

Player of the Match – Tamika Upton

The Queensland bench looks mighty strong and the presence of Ali Brigginshaw will once again prove the difference in what should be another brutal Origin encounter. A moment of Upton brilliance as a Blues inside defender falls asleep on the job could well decide the contest.

Paul Suttor

Men

Queensland by 4

First try scorer – Valentine Holmes

Player of the Match – Harry Grant

Queensland have invested in the future with Reece Walsh, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Tom Gilbert and David Fifita, who is still young at 23. Billy Slater made the tough calls to move on a few veterans while the Blues seem to have selected their team based on reactions to last year’s loss rather than who is their best 17.

Women

New South Wales by 2

First try scorer – Isabelle Kelly

Player of the Match – Kezzie Apps

There is never much in these contests – the average margin has been less than six in recent years – so this will go down to the wire. Great to see teenage prodigy Jesse Southwell making her debut off the bench and her introduction could be enough to get the Sky Blues home.

AJ Mithen

Men

New South Wales by 18

First try scorer – Brian To’o

Player of the Match – Hudson Young

I’m on the cockroaches in game one. I reckon they’ll be comfortable in Adelaide and open the cane toads up during the second half. 

It’ll be interesting to see how Billy Slater directs his Queenslanders around the park, he’s got a good forward pack and exciting backs but I still see NSW rounding them up.

I’ve tentatively got Hudson Young as the player of the match, but he’s just as likely to be sin binned…

Women

New South Wales by 4

First try scorer – Tarryn Aiken

Player of the Match – Olivia Kernick 

We still want three games, but two decided by points differential will do for now. I’m taking the blues here because that backline is undeniable. They’ll be coming at Queensland from all angles and I’m just not sure Queensland can hold them out for the journey. 

This is all tailor-made for a Queensland ambush, mind you…

Mike Meehall Wood

Men

Queensland by 1

First try scorer – Selwyn Cobbo

Player of the Match – Daly Cherry-Evans

Queensland have had the more settled camp and are the more settled team. Fittler’s Diet Panthers idea didn’t work last year and that was with a better Panthers side.

The Latrell and Turbo combo could have done it, and if the Blues won, Tommy will have a big say. But I don’t think they will, and out of pure Manly bias, it’ll be a controlled lesson from Daly Cherry-Evans that does it

Women

NSW by 12

First try scorer – Isabelle Kelly

Player of the Match – Isabelle Kelly

There’s less formline in the Women’s game given the lack of NRLW action but I can’t see further than the NSW backline, empowered by Millie Boyle and Kezie Apps up front. They’ll have too much for the Maroons on home soil.

Danielle Smith

Men

Queensland by 8

First Try Scorer – Valentine Holmes

Player of the Match – Ben Hunt

I cannot wait for this game! Even looking at the team sheet now, I’m still not convinced with everyone Freddy has picked, and I think the Maroons will get the job done in Game 1. Keeping their composure they will play the long game and show too much class.

Women

New South Wales by 12

First try scorer – Isabelle Kelly

Player of the Match – Millie Boyle

This is going to be a brilliant matchup, but I can’t go past the reigning champs in front of a home crowd.