Ashes clashes: The 11 key areas that'll decide battle for cricket's famous little urn - and who comes out on top

The time for talk is nearly done. Cricket’s oldest rivalry is less than two days away and after one of the most intense build-ups in recent history, there is an overwhelming element of unpredictability about the 2023 Ashes. 

Quite literally, all scenarios are in play for the five-match contest jammed into a six-week schedule which gets underway at Edgbaston on Friday. 

England are running rampant in the Bazball era and their fans can see no reason why they shouldn’t flog the Aussies colonials just like they’ve done to the rest of the world 11 times in their past 13 outings. 

Australia are the world Test champions after sealing the title with a dominant win over India at The Oval just days ago and have clearly been the best team over the five-day format for the past two years, including the 4-0 Ashes cakewalk on home soil which Stuart Broad tries to avoid thinking about as legitimate. 

A lopsided series either way is the least likely scenario, however, with the strength of both teams suggesting this heavyweight bout will go down to the wire. Neither team plays for draws so it’s likely to end up in a 3-2 result unless the English weather intervenes.

(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

Who comes out on top? Here are 11 factors that will decide who earns the urn in 2023.

Top order

England look shaky in this department with Zak Crawley the weak link, averaging 28.26 and just three tons from 34 Tests. Opening partner Ben Duckett has made a promising start to his international career while first drop Ollie Pope has done well against other countries but has struggled against Australia – 67 runs at 11.16 from three Tests.

Australia still have a lingering concern over David Warner, particularly given his poor record in England, but Usman Khawaja is in career-best form and Marnus Labuschagne is ranked No.1 among Test batters for a reason. 

Advantage Australia.

Middle order

England have a world-class performer in Joe Root, a rising star in Harry Brook and captain Ben Stokes ensuring they can hold the fort if the top order fails or accelerate the scoring if the first trio get off to a Bazball flyer. 

Brook is an unknown quantity to the Aussies but with 818 runs at 81.8 in his first seven Tests, including four centuries and a strike rate of 99.03, he cannot be written off as a flash in the pan. 

Australia counter with the player England feat the most, Steve Smith, on the back of his 2019 feats when he peeled off 774 runs in seven innings at 110.57 in Bradmanesque form.

Then they have Travis Head freewheeling in at No.5 off the back of a breakout year in which he has racked up 941 runs in his past nine Tests at 72.38, including last week’s blistering 163 to earn player of the match honours at the World Test Championship final.

Cameron Green is new to English conditions but the rising all-rounder has the technical skills to play well off the front and back foot.

Advantage Australia. Aussies 2-0

(Gareth Copley/Getty Images)

All-rounder

Stokes is the best all-rounder in world cricket but there are concerns over his knee injury limiting his bowling output. He claims he will be able to bowl short spells in the Ashes but he did not roll the arm over in the recent Test rout of Ireland and has looked extremely ginger (not a pun) when going through his paces at training.

Green showed in his spells against India at The Oval that he can get crucial breakthroughs for the Aussies while he broke through for his first Test ton in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series so he remains on a rapid upward trajectory.

Advantage England, if Stokes can bowl. Aussies 2-1

Wicketkeeper

This is a tricky one. England have Jonny Bairstow reclaiming the role from a superior gloveman in Ben Foakes and he’s barely been the specialist keeper at Test level for several years, plus he’s on the comeback trail from a broken leg.

However, his batting form last year was one of the early triggers for the Bazball revolution and if he rediscovers that touch, he could be a game-changer at No.7 for England.

Alex Carey is everything Australia want from their keeper – almost exemplary behind the stumps, calm in all he does and reliable with the bat when he shelves his penchant for the reverse sweep.

Advantage England, just, if Bairstow fires with the bat. 2-2

Nathan Lyon. (Photo by Graham Denholm – CA/Cricket Australia via Getty Images)

Spinner

Both teams are relying on 35-year-old off-spinners but the difference couldn’t be more stark.

England have recalled Moeen Ali from Test retirement after Jack Leach’s back injury and his record against Australia suggests he could be cannon fodder for the touring batters – 20 wickets at 60.55 at an economy rate of 4.33.

In the baggy green corner, Nathan Lyon is rated eighth in the ICC Test bowler rankings after taking the most wickets in the recent two-year WTC cycle with 88.

Advantage Australia. Aussies 3-2

Fast bowling

Australia have an embarrassment of riches at the moment with Scott Boland mounting an undeniable case to be included at the expense of proven performers Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood to line up alongside Pat Cummins.

Throw in Green’s seamers from a great height and the tourists are well served in the pace brigade with Michael Neser waiting in the wings if injuries strike.

England’s stocks have taken a hit with Jofra Archer ruled out for the series with an elbow problem while Jimmy Anderson (groin) and Ollie Robinson (ankle) have been sidelined in recent weeks. 

Mark Wood provides raw pace for the hosts but also has question marks over his ability to back up for successive Tests while Stuart Broad is ready to back up his pre-Ashes talk with another assault on the Aussies, particularly honing in on his bunny, David Warner, from around the wicket.

Advantage Australia. Aussies 4-2

Ollie Robinson (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

Pitch conditions

England have ordered fast, flat pitches from their curators to suit their Bazball style but it could backfire as it plays into the hands of the Australians.

The home side has benefited big time from Australia’s batters struggling to counter the moving ball on the traditionally lush English pitches so a move to a more runs-friendly style of wicket is a gamble. 

Advantage England. Aussies 4-3

Tactics – namely, Bazball

England’s up-tempo style to focus on attack with bat and ball has revolutionised Test cricket over the past 12 months with Stokes and coach Brendon McCullum deserving plenty of praise for the way they have revived the carcass of the team after the 4-0 capitulation in Australia.

The overriding question heading into this series is will these tactics work against the world’s best Test nation?

Australia’s bowlers have openly stated they’re happy for England’s batters to take them on, believing that the more they attack, the more likely they are to lose wickets.

When it comes to England’s ultra-aggressive field placements and bowling for wickets rather than containment, it could work if the ball is seaming but on the flat pitches that have been requested, it may just make it easier for Australia’s top-class batting unit to keep the scoreboard ticking over.

Cummins is no slouch when it comes to tactics, despite criticism on the recent India tour that Smith showed greater acumen when he filled in.

Advantage England. 4-4

Scott Boland celebrates with teammates. (Photo by Gareth Copley-ICC/ICC via Getty Images)

Recent form

This is splitting hairs because both teams enter this series with superb form.

England have gone 11-2 under the McCullum-Stokes regime while the Aussies have been the dominant Test nation for the past two years and are fresh off wrapping up the world crown at The Oval.

They did have a blip on their radar beforehand on the India tour, winning just one of four Tests in losing the series but those results shouldn’t matter too much in vastly different English conditions.

Advantage England. Poms 5-4

Squad fitness

Australia are the clear winners here. Hazlewood says he is fit again after side soreness which means the touring party has a clean bill of health.

England have Stokes (knee), Bairstow (leg), Anderson (groin) and Robinson (ankle) entering the series after injuries and yet to prove they are back to full fitness.

Advantage Australia. 5-5

X-factor

England have plenty of those intangible qualities that collectively make up Bazball. Stokes can be a match-winner with bat and ball, Brook can also fire off a ton in a session while Bairstow has proved he can stand up to the Aussie attack.

When Broad gets the ball swinging, he has shown on multiple occasions he can tear through an Australian line-up while Wood’s express pace off a short run-up can also cause havoc. 

Anderson keeps on keeping on and Australian fans who have only seen Robinson from his underwhelming Ashes tour 18 months ago are in for a rude shock when they see this fitter and more impactful version.

However, Australia’s holding sway here. Head’s middle-order fireworks don’t always come off but his recent success rate dating back to the last Ashes series suggests he will play a massive role in this series.

Travis Head celebrates his WTC final century. (Photo by Alex Davidson-ICC/ICC via Getty Images)

Smith, Labuschagne and Khawaja are more steady accumulators but then there’s Green, who could mirror the Steve Waugh 1989 Ashes tour by plundering the English bowlers after a few years finding his feet at Test level.

And then there’s Boland, the late-blooming fast bowler who has bagged 33 wickets at an historic average of 14.57 – third-best all time – in his first eight Tests, who befuddled India’s batters at The Oval to prove that he can continue his purple patch in English conditions.

Advantage Australia. 6-5

All things considered, Australia have the slight edge and have nudged ahead of England to be the bookmakers’ favourites.

But this is set to be the most unpredictable series since the 2005 classic when England triumphed 2-1 in the hardest fought contest of recent decades.

Australia retained the Ashes in England four years ago with a drawn result  but have not won a series in the UK since 2001. 

They have the shiny World Test Championship mace in their hands after outplaying India but as great as that achievement was, the tradition of the Ashes means the dusty little old urn is still the biggest trophy of all.