Who makes the finals from here?

Well, that round of footy was forgettable. So, let’s treat it like The Godfather Part III and just ignore it.

About two thirds of the way through the season, it’s worth asking who makes it from here. I suspect that the teams currently on eight wins are virtual locks to make it. For reference, those teams are Collingwood, Port, Brisbane, Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon and the Western Bulldogs.

I appreciate that the Saints, Bombers and Dogs are clearly the three weakest sides of the bunch but the Saints and Bombers each get to play both North Melbourne and West Coast twice, and the Saints have the easiest run home in the AFL.

It is worth noting that the Saints were in this position last year and have made a habit of ensuring opposing half backs play the best games of their careers, but regardless I still think they should make it.

The Bulldogs only get to play West Coast but have the best list of the bunch and the second easiest run home in the AFL. So, despite indifferent or worse form from those three sides, it would be a shock if they didn’t make the finals.

Granted, not as much of a shock as any of them making any noise against the top four, but a shock nonetheless.

So, that leaves spot number eight up for discussion. There are probably five sides that can realistically make a run at that eighth spot based on form, current wins and the run home. Those sides are Adelaide, who currently reside in eighth as well as Geelong, Gold Coast, Fremantle and Richmond.

Tom Hawkins, Patrick Dangerfield and Mitch Duncan. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Sydney and GWS also each have six wins, the same as Richmond, but the Tigers have also got the extra two points that came from the increasingly less impressive draw with Carlton in Round 1 and a far easier run home than both the New South Wales teams.

I won’t lie. There is an element of wishcasting involved in including Richmond in this exercise. Sue me. I like this team. I’m like Ben Affleck writing and directing himself as the brooding but charismatic, capable and jacked guy who men want to be, and women want to be with. The writer gets himself some wins.

Write your own shit if you don’t want Richmond involved. Go Tigers.

I will note at this juncture that Carlton aren’t involved in this article.

Shame.

Also, all of the run home stats are courtesy of Fox Footy’s Max Laughton, who explains his methodology in this excellent piece.

Let’s get to the teams, in order of current ladder position.

Adelaide (7-7, 115.1%, sixth-easiest run home)

This Adelaide side reminds me a lot of the 2015 Crows, in the sense that they are a year away from being a year away, but the bones of a good team are there.

In 2016, there was obvious growth from 2015 and then In 2017 Adelaide were clearly the best side in the AFL, built on the back of the most explosive forward line in football. But in 2016, all of the ingredients were there.

In 2015, the Crows were the third-highest scoring team in football, and the fourth highest rated team in the competition in a season marred by the murder of Phil Walsh.

They only built on this in 2016, sitting first and second in those categories respectively, while improving their numbers at clearance. Then in 2017 they were the best team in the AFL from wire to wire, until the first Saturday in October.

Granted, commissioning Pauline Hanson and Commando Steve from The Biggest Loser to do their post-2017 camp was, in hindsight, perhaps unwise but it doesn’t change the magic of the build.

I think this Adelaide team is built for longer term success, however.

The 2015 team was basically middle-aged, sitting eleventh for average games played and eighth for average of the list, whereas this year the Crows are 17th and 16th in each category while retaining a comparable.

The Crows of 2023 are the fourth highest scoring team, second in goal assists, fourth in clearances, fourth in contested ball. Their pressure on the ball is also strong, allowing their opponents the least uncontested possessions and effective disposals in football. Having said that, they are the 10th highest rated side.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

In short, this is an okay to good side that is a year away from being a year away. The Crows’ build has been a teach tape on how to do it, and this has been a heartening year, but my suspicion is that the youth will show as we enter the stretch run of the season.

With a middle of the pack strength of schedule on the way home, Adelaide just miss out. Watch out for them next year, though.

Geelong (7-7, 114.2%, second-hardest run home)

I wrote earlier this year that Geelong’s premiership in 2022 was their “one last job”, in keeping with the Heat principle. I still maintain that the bones of this team are done winning premierships, but I also said that they still could make the finals and will make for a terrifying spoiler regardless of whether they do.

I still feel good about that prediction.

Geelong is still scoring heavily and defending well but their overall rating has slipped markedly from a dominant rating last year (first down to thirteenth), and a number of other statistical categories have also slipped.

Having said all of that, why am I picking Geelong to be the team that makes it?

Did you see last week? Are you going to bet against these people? Bill Simmons took to calling the Miami Heat the “Zombie Heat” this year because they are unkillable, despite being old and largely indifferent statistically.

How do we feel about calling them the Zombie Cats?

No, that isn’t a comment about the methamphetamine epidemic in Geelong.

They play 5 more games in Geelong where they just beat the team currently sitting second. Even though they have the second hardest schedule in footy by the numbers, accounting for 5/9 games being played at a fortress that number does not necessarily ring true.

That, and the fact that they’re less than a full percentage point off Adelaide while also getting a game against North Melbourne at GMHBA tells me that Geelong is going to finish eighth.

It also tells me that I would be petrified of finishing fifth.

Gold Coast (7-7, 100.7%, hardest run home)

Despite the storm around Stuart Dew, here they are, in the hunt. Cue the Paul Rudd Hot Ones meme.

This is a team that plays the metreage game to a tee sitting fourth in metres gained and third in clearances but dead last in both handballs and disposals. They’re a fairly dominant midfield and have a good spine with King, Rowell, Anderson, Miller (when fit), Day and Ballard.

This is a pretty good side. They won’t make the finals. Two things can be true.

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

They have the hardest run home by the numbers and have been a flaky side this season at times, notably with demolitions at the hands of cellar dwellers Sydney and Carlton.

The Suns have a past that spans 14 years, but they have no history. 2023 will not be the season that someone picks up a pen to start writing the triumphant chapter of the book.

Fremantle (7-7, 97.3%, ninth-hardest run home)

Look, it’s not going to be Freo.

They’re just coming from too far back. After round 7 of this year, Freo were 2-5. Now they’re 7-7, which is terrific for them. But there is something about them. After real anticipation for their season, the product that they have put on the field has left me unaroused. Bit like The Idol.

Coming into the season I thought they had all the ingredients to really build off an excellent 2022. They were good around the ball, generated an absurd amount of uncontested ball, scored just enough and were miserly defensively. This year, they are markedly less good at all of those things, except defending where they give up the fourth least points in the AFL.

Even though they have 7 wins, their percentage is the fifth worst in football largely because they cannot score enough. They sit 10th in scoring for the year. In a lot of ways, they remind of the Chicago Bears. There is something about the uniform that defangs offensive brilliance but instils defensive dominance.

Like Kendall Roy said, it’s not going to be [them].

Richmond (6-7-1, 102.4%, third-easiest run home)

The underlying numbers for Richmond are good. Like, better than you think. They’re 5th in overall rating, first in rebound 50s and since Hardwick resigned, Richmond have not given up more than 77 points and scored 85 or more in 3 out of 4 matches on their way to three wins out of four.

Their best players have started to play better and some of the young talent is genuinely starting to shine, namely Juddy Clarke who is threatening the Charlie Curnow/Tom Papley duopoly atop the list of the list of the league’s most ferocious celebrators.

Rhyan Mansell. (Photo by Will Russell/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Richmond’s chances of making it basically hinge on beating Brisbane. If they beat Brisbane on Thursday night at the Gabba, which they have not done in any of the last three tries (noting that they did beat Brisbane in Queensland in the COVID affected 2021 season), then the season is well and truly on with three likely wins coming from the three games after Brisbane.

Based on that, the extra two points from the draw against the Blues, and the possibility that Tom Lynch plays some part in the season going forward, I peg the Tigers as the second favourite to snatch that eighth spot.

Okay, maybe not the second favourite. But they are certainly the team that everyone in the finals would least like to see (okay, they’re second in that too).