The Bulldogs are in freefall - and only radical changes can save them

The Bulldogs are in free fall and the alarm bells are ringing at Whitten Oval.

By virtue of this extraordinary 2023 season the Bulldogs are still seventh on the ladder, but the formline doesn’t reflect that.

Now, the coach of this group has plenty of brownie points as we’ve discussed a lot over the past couple of seasons, and winning seven of eight games after a tumultuous start really swept away any criticism. Of course, only one of those seven opponents are currently above them on the ladder, but that’s not quite the point.

The last four games have seen standards slip significantly, despite possessing arguably the most complete player in the competition playing the best footy of his career, one Marcus Bontempelli.

They lost three in a row, against Gold Coast, Geelong and Port Adelaide. They then snuck over the line against North Melbourne, after a Cody Weightman masterclass.

During this time, the defensive application dropped off considerably. Ed Richards was a big loss and will be a welcomed return within the next fortnight, but the drop-off isn’t dependent on one player.

In that month of games, the Bulldogs conceded an average of 93 points per game. In the six games preceding that, it was 62.33.

The last four fixtures weren’t shocks results-wise but still, they involved three teams outside the top eight, none of which were exactly firing on all cylinders.

Despite the win against North, it’s left a sour taste in the mouth. Maybe the bye week has been well-timed, no one’s really talking about the Bulldogs and their drop-off at the moment.

Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

It always felt that even during the really good run they had, on paper, that defensive unit is particularly suspect. Perhaps Richards really has helped papering over the cracks, admittedly he was an All-Australian calibre player before his hamstring injury.

Liam Jones started off the season superbly, recapturing the form that made him the best one-on-one defender in the league a couple of years ago. That helped too.

Even with a bit of a regression towards league average, he’s still the best defender they have, and now he’s out for a long time. Tim O’Brien had been in-and-out of the team but he was fine as a defender and interceptor, it was more his decision-making that couldn’t cement his spot. He’s also out for a substantial period of time.

So, the Bulldogs now face a situation where their defence dropped off with mostly a full choice of options available at their disposal, and are now missing Jones and to a lesser extent, O’Brien.

Those alarm bells are ringing just that little bit louder now.

They’ve got Alex Keath, whose recent venturing into a kamikaze, aggressive style of counter-attacking isn’t really doing much for fans of the club and Ryan Gardner, who has been good in the past but disappointing in return from some body issues.

There’s Josh Bruce, who was thrown into defence this season and while decent early, isn’t the man to build the unit around. He had a shocking game against Port Adelaide a couple of games ago but that’s how footy works sometimes, particularly for a player re-learning a position.

It’s hard to really know what support the talls have in defence when most of the focus is on the offensive side of the ball and counter-attacking, which is why the drop-off isn’t purely on the members of the back 50.

It feels like Luke Beveridge adjusted the game plan when playing against lower-ranked opposition to try and win in a shootout. A lot more emphasis seems to have been placed on stacking the positions forward of centre in a bid to hit the scoreboard harder.

It’s been a largely inaccurate season for the Bulldogs and on one hand, better kicking against the Suns and Cats may have resulted in wins. On the other hand, a more nuanced approach when entering the forward 50 and maintaining defensive integrity are probably more important than accuracy in the long run.

No, what’s clear is that the little shifts in mindset and positions have had a detrimental impact on team defending at the Bulldogs.

Champion Data measures pressure acts and even more specifically, defensive half pressure acts, which is a nice indicator to see which players are positioned to have an impact on the oppositions attacking forays. It’s far from perfect but when you use statistics as a secondary to the eye-test, they make a bit more sense.

For instance, Jack Macrae’s move to a half-forward flank has been a little weird. He’s still playing good footy and clearly, the Bulldogs want to improve the ball use entering inside 50, but this is a guy who’s been a really strong clearance player with strong, perhaps underrated defensive work rate.

In the first seven rounds, he was one of the better pressure players at the Bulldogs and one of the top workers in the defensive half. His numbers have dropped off significantly as he has played a more advanced role.

It’s the same story for Caleb Daniel. He has played wonderfully this season, particularly in the midfield, but he had a presence in the back half that simply hasn’t been replaced.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Bontempelli’s lowest number of defensive half pressure acts being in the three losses in the last month might well be a coincidence, but a pattern is emerging that while the offensive output of these stars is improving, it’s leaving holes in the defensive transition play.

Bailey Smith was the third-best Bulldog in that area last season, now he doesn’t make the top 10.

In the last month, every single Bulldog player has seen their defensive presence decrease. Even Tim English isn’t floating back and taking intercept marks as deep, which was a significant bailout option to cover the back six that was being utilised heavily in the first half of the year by the Bulldogs.

None of this is designed to be critical of the players themselves. Roles have shifted, tactics have been switched up and all are still playing their roles to an elite level. But when a team is missing a defensive-minded player or two, the idea would be to keep those who have at least shown glimpses of the same commitment in the back half, rather than switch it all up.

It leads to an enormous set of fixtures for the Bulldogs coming up.

They take on Fremantle, Collingwood, Sydney and Essendon in the next month, knowing they still get to play North Melbourne and West Coast as easybeats later in the season. This has always been a team that on paper, has the top-end quality to challenge for a flag.

Yet it’s hard to favour the Bulldogs heading into any game and now, they’re missing a couple of key defensive contributors. When rumours of playing Aaron Naughton in defence arise, it’s a telltale sign that the Bulldogs are not playing good footy, as it’s always the first thought that springs to mind.

The defensive free fall started before the injuries and will continue to hinder the Bulldogs for the rest of the year if things aren’t fixed up.

This is the time when coaches’ egos are challenged and it’s up to them whether they acknowledge there are issues or believe in their system enough to hope it’s a contagious belief that is shared amongst the playing group.

Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

That’s always been the Beveridge conundrum. It’s what won the Bulldogs the flag. It’s also what’s stopped them from ever finishing in the top four under him. Right now, his confidence isn’t contagious.

The alarm bells are ringing and the red lights are flashing.

The Bulldogs are in free fall and only change can be their saviour in 2023.