Why have Japan jammed so close to the World Cup?

Japan’s stumbling form looks like an odd development, for a team that came oh-so-close to beating the All Blacks last year.

Initially, their All Blacks XV game looked like small errors compounded and exploited by a team of elite game-breakers. Yet a recent loss to Samoa marks an even further decline.

People may think defence is a problem, but in fact, their defence was largely decent considering the size deferential. What Japan has lost is their traditional agility, dynamisms, fluid attacking shapes as well as the application of an elite flyhalf in their ranks.

These are crucial factors in running their old system that tipped scales in their favour from 2018 to 2022.

Quick ball and fluid attacking pods have devolved into stale 3-pods. Yutaka Nagare is doing his best Aaron Smith impression, with the forwards running good lines off their valiant 9. But they do not expand into their old 1-3-2-2/2-3-2-1 dynamic flash structure that ripped through Irish, Scottish, and Springbok defences in the 2019 World Cup.

On return sequences, Nagare is often giving passes to lone 3-pods, with next groups forming afterwards. That is not problematic, but when you’re losing so much power deferential, playing a power game is never in the question.

Japan need to keep the ball alive, whipped with zip. Quick ball is an issue, as their attack lacks its old fluency. That brings me to perhaps the biggest loss in their new system – the lack of an elite 10, especially in the floating strategist role. Seungsin Lee is not a Test-quality 10.

A top-level 10 should have dummied the pod, stepped around and played from there, saw him brick a subpar, inside shoulder pass to Dylan Riley coming from far too deep. It’s a moment in time that marks how far Japan have fallen.

Japan’s play revolves around elite coordination and classy passing from your handlers. The pods have to be flat off your 10 to be legit threats, which then creates space for the midfielders out the back.

Dylan Riley is a talent, but was caught out too deep, and does not have the playmaking nous of Timothy Lafaele. Japan lack proper kicking options, and their weak kicking game under charge down pressure has been a long standing issue. Ryohei Yamanaka’s charged-down clearance highlighted this clear weakness.

Yu Tamura was a key cog in Japan’s victories in 2019, due to his elite mid-range passing and tactical arrangement that seems absent currently.

Ryoto Nakamura as backline glue to bridge strike and wide units in attack, and rush and drift in defence is also crucial. Key changes to the characteristics of their backline to more strike runners and less handlers means their attack goes into a transition.

Jamie Joseph seems to blood new players, but unless Rikiya Matsuda (who has many similar characteristics) can step into 10, and they can create a means of dynamism, it is difficult to see them doing well in France.