Somewhere along the line, Pool C of the 2023 Rugby World Cup has turned into the pool of death. Not because it’s filled with elite teams, but because it’s filled with teams who are spluttering.
Any two of Wales, Australia, Georgia, and Fiji could find themselves in the knock-outs. In this article I have a look at who stands the best chance and ask if it’s all doom and gloom for Australia.
Fiji, and to a certain extent Georgia, sit in that difficult middle ground where they are better than the teams they play regularly but rarely can they compete with the teams ahead of them. In the last two weeks, Fiji have comfortably beaten both Tonga and Samoa. Earlier in the season they were comfortably beaten by Scotland and Ireland. While they have exceptional world beating players throughout their ranks, they suffer from a lack of quality in certain positions. If they could trade some of their wing and centre options for fly-halves and front rowers they would chuck themselves right into the mix.
George North of Wales charges through the tackle of Guram Gogichashvili and Soso Matiashvili of Georgia as he goes on to score his sides sixth try during the Rugby World Cup 2019 Group D game. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
Unfortunately, we see those weaknesses crop up in their game frequently. But, against Samoa on the weekend, they did show clear signs of improvement, especially in the scrum. They were by far the stronger side at the set-piece and destroyed Samoa’s scrum on their one put in. This will be an area that Australia will need to focus on. In 2007 Wales tried to take Fiji on at their own game and came unstuck. The way to beat Fiji is with dull pragmatism. Take 60 minutes to grind them through kicking and playing off mistakes. Then the last 20 minutes you can open up.
Ireland did that last year. They took an 11 point lead at the hour mark and then stretched their legs. Scotland did the same, they led by nine at the hour mark and 16 at the finish.
Let’s be honest, Australia under Eddie Jones have been dire. But they have only faced very good opponents who punish their errors. The reason why Fiji struggle against the best opponents is because they have a high error rate. Those teams might not have Fiji’s firepower but they can eke out a scoreboard advantage which forces Fiji to become even more expansive and increases the error rate.
Usually we would expect that Australia only need to worry about dispatching Fiji and they’ll at least finish second. But Georgia pose a significant risk. They beat Wales last year in a match which has created a clear blueprint for them. They will kick everything inside of 40m from the posts. They rarely ventured into Wales’ 22 but they could still score from long range.
Their backs are improving, although they’re not yet a strength. The biggest improvement though is in fitness. Georgia made 120 tackles and missed just 10 against Wales. You would typically expect them to fade in that final 20 minutes but actually they were the better side in the third and fourth quarter against Wales. Australia will need to be on top form to dispatch Georgia but again, they should have enough.
That leaves the Wales game as a bit of a non-entity. Obviously Australia will want to beat Wales but as long as they get by Fiji and Georgia they will make it to the knock-outs. In the knock-outs they will likely be gifted a match against Argentina or England. Neither side which should overly concern Australia even if they’ve lost their last matches to both.
If you see Australia’s recent results as matches in their own right, then it’s been deeply disappointing. However, Australia have been gifted a dream World Cup draw. Given how every other team in their way are suffering a similar malaise this hasn’t been a terrible period for Jones’ men.
Eddie Jones. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
The game plan Jones is trying to bring in is well suited to these teams. Australia need to avoid errors. When you’re playing a side struggling for form, gifting them errors is a great way to help them find it. But Australia don’t play with much possession and they have defended generally well in The Rugby Championship. That hasn’t been good enough to stop South Africa, Argentina, or New Zealand, or even really trouble them, but it might be enough against weaker opponents.
Eddie Jones is creating an us against the orld mentality. Australia do have their backs against the wall but so do all the opponents they will face up to, and including, the quarter final. Rather than a Battle Royale it’s more of a scrap in a car park. That’s important though. Jones needs Australia to think of themselves as underdogs. In that regard, these recent losses actually might have been beneficial.
It’s worth reiterating what Australia need to do to reach a World Cup semi-final. They need to beat three of Portugal, Georgia, Fiji, and Wales. Then probably England or Argentina. Given how all the teams are doing at the moment, that is about as easy as it could be. Yes, they’re going to go into it probably on the back of five losses, and eight losses in nine. Yes, they’re still not closer to finding a settled squad. Yes, the mood is bleak. But, and I accept this isn’t a great pre-match speech, somehow Australia still look likely to make that semi-final.
francky
Roar Rookie
Nice article !! At the end the Pool C is a pool of “second string” maybe (do not kill me). Australia being in Pool A or B, I would wounder much more. Anyway, Australia is favorite of this Pool C with Wales (at least when the Draw was done) Australia will play France end August, that will give an idea of the level and there might be surprises. Now France plays Scotland the 12th of August, I guess Galthie wants to test the young (like Gailleton etc). France A team will be there against Australia, but Eddie always has a plan (he always have at least one), so I am worry if ever an Eddie’s plan work. I think Australia will get out of the pool games, now for sure Wales, to me is the strongest opponent, but their front can’t face with Georgia. Georgia has the strongest front in this group, but not the fastest back. I did not mentioned Fiji, but they have a bit the same game as Australia, the problem is the cards. My 2cts bet: Australia and Georgia go in QF. One month to go ! I wish to see nice Rugby
FunBus
Roar Rookie
I think Oz will play the first team because Georgia is first up. They've then got Fiji and Wales. They'll play the first team in all those because then they've got three weeks to a possible quarter-final with only Portugal to play.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
I agree that has traditionally been the case. I just get the feeling that Fiji have developed greater practicality given how many of their players no play overseas - including the forwards. You'd still bet on Oz, but if they take it lightly or pick up their usual stupid cards, there could be a shock.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Big challange for Oz is squad depth. They play France in their last warm up the have Georgia, Fiji and Wales in 15 days. Georgia will put out their best team v Oz as first game up. Fiji will do the same as either they are playing Oz to top the group or stay in the running. They then play Wales who will have played Portugal the round before and will know what they need to do. Oz then has two weeks where they play 1 game v Portugal. Georgia will play like Argentina and Italy so will be interesting to see how it goes. Scrum and breakdown are the two key areas so keeping the best players fit for the first three games is important. We should know by 17/09 if England will top their pool
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Fiji are good at the same stuff as Oz and bad at the same stuff. That suits Oz as they have a 10 but Fiji not so much. When Scotland, Wales Argentina and Italy all beat Oz it was up front where Oz are poor. That is where Georgia are good. The reason Oz beat SA but Argentina can't is because of clash of styles, same why Arg can beat NZ and Oz can't. If two teams play the same way the better players win generally.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Georgia v Uruguay was 34 - 18. Georgia v Samoa was 19 - 20 with Samoa getting a 76 min try to seal the winner. Georgia 10 missed both conversations which was the difference. That Samoa team has turned out to be fairly decent. If we assume that Oz will have to play their 2nd string team against Georgia it becomes alot harder. Yes the Oz 1st team would beat them but can they play their first team against Georgia, Wales, Fiji and Eng/Arg.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
That would be scary
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Oz have lost to Scotland, Italy and Wales away plus England and Argentina at home. Losing to all those after losing the breakdown then they do need to worry. The Fijian backrow will need to be dominated and not sure Oz can do that, just like they struggled v italy. They can play their top players in every game so they need to either write off the Wales game our trust a second string v either Georgia or Fiji.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
There are few teams have 6 props better than the what Georgia will take in the scrum. No they are not the best players in the World but every T14 team has a Georgian prop, many of them starting. As Scotland use to find its fine to run 40m but if you knock on or conced a penalty the opposition make 40m in one kick. Georgia will be good in maul and breakdown on both sides of the ball. Even Ireland struggled against them in 2020.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Going up against Georgia with no props will be a big worry especially as Georgia may have alot of handling errors.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
Georgia are dangerous but providing Oz keep their discipline (stupid cards etc) and gives them due respect, they should handle them relatively comfortably. Fiji are more dangerous. Their normal results are irrelevant. All their overseas players are available, and combined with the Drua and, crucially, the preparation time they'll have together, makes them a genuine threat. The implication that Argentina and England are 'easy beats' for the fearsome Wallabies is beyond parody.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
Oz have a good chance to get to a SF - but it's the disdain for your opponents in the article that grates.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
England are 'talking up their own chances?' Do you read much of the English media? Certainly, every one would agree that both England and Oz are in the preferred side of the draw, but I'll doubt you'll see any articles in the English media talking about how Argentina and Oz are 'easy beats.' It's particularly hilarious given that England have beaten you 10 out of the last 11 and stuck 40 points on you at the last QF.
TJ-Go Force!
Roar Rookie
Georgia are improving but they barely beat both Uruguay and an understrength Samoa at home in recent tests.
Andrew
Roar Rookie
Imagine how good a combined Fiji and Georgia team would be.
Perthstayer
Roar Rookie
Hi Sam, enjoyable article, thanks. I feel Australia is underestimating Fiji. Since those NH losses in November Fiji Drua have had a full, and successful SRP season. They beat Australia A, and held their own vs a a big pack. Fiji's usual block of o'seas stars will now join up with Drua players who are a consolidated group with big wins under their belt. I am more fearful of them than Wales.
TinRattler
Roar Rookie
We'll be lucky to beat Portugal
Adsa
Roar Rookie
The Wallyb's are not a great rugby side and are capable of losing to any side in their Pool. Question Roarers which traits have the WallyB's displayed over the current RWC cycle that could see them lose in an upset? A. Take the game for granted B. Lose the penalty count C. Kick poorly D. Chase attacking kicks poorly E. Forwards don't turn up for business F. Backs pass poorly or get the dropsy's G. Defend poorly H. Get multiple cards in a game I. All of the above.
Big Dave
Roar Rookie
You don't mention Georgia, but they are ranked higher than Fiji at the moment.
Big Dave
Roar Rookie
Agree, the dismissal of our QF opponents is bizarre. We need to win the group to avoid England, because we won't beat them, we never do. At least we'd be maybe 50-50 against Argentina. But it's hard to see us beating all of Wales, Fiji and Georgia. Hard to see us beating any of them at times....