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Opinion
Somewhere along the line, Pool C of the 2023 Rugby World Cup has turned into the pool of death. Not because it’s filled with elite teams, but because it’s filled with teams who are spluttering.
Any two of Wales, Australia, Georgia, and Fiji could find themselves in the knock-outs. In this article I have a look at who stands the best chance and ask if it’s all doom and gloom for Australia.
Fiji, and to a certain extent Georgia, sit in that difficult middle ground where they are better than the teams they play regularly but rarely can they compete with the teams ahead of them. In the last two weeks, Fiji have comfortably beaten both Tonga and Samoa. Earlier in the season they were comfortably beaten by Scotland and Ireland. While they have exceptional world beating players throughout their ranks, they suffer from a lack of quality in certain positions. If they could trade some of their wing and centre options for fly-halves and front rowers they would chuck themselves right into the mix.
George North of Wales charges through the tackle of Guram Gogichashvili and Soso Matiashvili of Georgia as he goes on to score his sides sixth try during the Rugby World Cup 2019 Group D game. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
Unfortunately, we see those weaknesses crop up in their game frequently. But, against Samoa on the weekend, they did show clear signs of improvement, especially in the scrum. They were by far the stronger side at the set-piece and destroyed Samoa’s scrum on their one put in. This will be an area that Australia will need to focus on. In 2007 Wales tried to take Fiji on at their own game and came unstuck. The way to beat Fiji is with dull pragmatism. Take 60 minutes to grind them through kicking and playing off mistakes. Then the last 20 minutes you can open up.
Ireland did that last year. They took an 11 point lead at the hour mark and then stretched their legs. Scotland did the same, they led by nine at the hour mark and 16 at the finish.
Let’s be honest, Australia under Eddie Jones have been dire. But they have only faced very good opponents who punish their errors. The reason why Fiji struggle against the best opponents is because they have a high error rate. Those teams might not have Fiji’s firepower but they can eke out a scoreboard advantage which forces Fiji to become even more expansive and increases the error rate.
Usually we would expect that Australia only need to worry about dispatching Fiji and they’ll at least finish second. But Georgia pose a significant risk. They beat Wales last year in a match which has created a clear blueprint for them. They will kick everything inside of 40m from the posts. They rarely ventured into Wales’ 22 but they could still score from long range.
Their backs are improving, although they’re not yet a strength. The biggest improvement though is in fitness. Georgia made 120 tackles and missed just 10 against Wales. You would typically expect them to fade in that final 20 minutes but actually they were the better side in the third and fourth quarter against Wales. Australia will need to be on top form to dispatch Georgia but again, they should have enough.
That leaves the Wales game as a bit of a non-entity. Obviously Australia will want to beat Wales but as long as they get by Fiji and Georgia they will make it to the knock-outs. In the knock-outs they will likely be gifted a match against Argentina or England. Neither side which should overly concern Australia even if they’ve lost their last matches to both.
If you see Australia’s recent results as matches in their own right, then it’s been deeply disappointing. However, Australia have been gifted a dream World Cup draw. Given how every other team in their way are suffering a similar malaise this hasn’t been a terrible period for Jones’ men.
Eddie Jones. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
The game plan Jones is trying to bring in is well suited to these teams. Australia need to avoid errors. When you’re playing a side struggling for form, gifting them errors is a great way to help them find it. But Australia don’t play with much possession and they have defended generally well in The Rugby Championship. That hasn’t been good enough to stop South Africa, Argentina, or New Zealand, or even really trouble them, but it might be enough against weaker opponents.
Eddie Jones is creating an us against the orld mentality. Australia do have their backs against the wall but so do all the opponents they will face up to, and including, the quarter final. Rather than a Battle Royale it’s more of a scrap in a car park. That’s important though. Jones needs Australia to think of themselves as underdogs. In that regard, these recent losses actually might have been beneficial.
It’s worth reiterating what Australia need to do to reach a World Cup semi-final. They need to beat three of Portugal, Georgia, Fiji, and Wales. Then probably England or Argentina. Given how all the teams are doing at the moment, that is about as easy as it could be. Yes, they’re going to go into it probably on the back of five losses, and eight losses in nine. Yes, they’re still not closer to finding a settled squad. Yes, the mood is bleak. But, and I accept this isn’t a great pre-match speech, somehow Australia still look likely to make that semi-final.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.