As the NRL enters the final month of the regular season, there are still 14 teams in the finals hunt but few legitimate contenders for the title.
Big question marks can now be placed on Melbourne and South Sydney over whether they are actual contenders for the premiership after lacklustre performances on the weekend.
For the second time this season the Storm were outclassed by Penrith and it’s hard to mount an argument that they have the firepower to match the premiers if they face them again in the finals.
The Rabbitohs were considered a realistic chance of going all the way if they could build some late-season momentum but they have plummeted from sixth the eighth/ninth after their 26-16 loss in Perth to a Cronulla side which had lost three straight, a final scoreline which flattered the beaten favourites.
Souths now need to win every game just to make the playoffs and they can all but kiss their top-four hopes goodbye.
The Panthers and Broncos look certain to lock up the top two spots to earn a home qualifying final with the Warriors looming as the best bet to prevent those two from meeting in the Grand Final.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Just eight competition points separate the next 11 teams with the Titans and Dolphins at the tailend of the logjam and while they are all in the hunt for the playoffs, they each have serious flaws when it comes to competing with the big guns in the finals.
There are several matches in the final four rounds which are effectively (but, no, not really) four-point games where the two points for winning is doubled by the points you’re denying a fellow playoff contender.
This round, the Friday night matches – Sharks vs Titans, Broncos vs Eels – Roosters vs Dolphins on Saturday night and Sunday’s fourth-place shoot-out between Melbourne and Canberra shape up as huge matches in the context of jostling for finals positions for both the winners and losers.
When it comes to who has the toughest run home based on a strength of schedule formula (calculating the combined competition points of your remaining opponents), Souths and the Warriors have the easiest draws while the Storm, Sharks, Titans and Raiders face the toughest roads as they try to lock up a playoff berth.
Strength of schedule
| Rank | Team | Strength of schedule |
| 1 | Rabbitohs | 67 |
| 2 | Warriors | 75 |
| 3 | Broncos | 86 |
| 3 | Cowboys | 86 |
| 3 | Roosters | 86 |
| 6 | Knights | 90 |
| 7 | Dolphins | 94 |
| 8 | Eels | 96 |
| 9 | Panthers | 99 |
| 10 | Sea Eagles | 100 |
| 11 | Tigers | 103 |
| 12 | Bulldogs | 104 |
| 13 | Storm | 104 |
| 14 | Sharks | 105 |
| 15 | Raiders | 114 |
| 16 | Titans | 114 |
| 17 | Dragons | 115 |
Team by team, here’s how each team is shaping up heading into the final rounds of the regular season.
The run home for each team
1. Penrith (36 points, 15-5 record, +277 differential)
Run home: Sea Eagles (away), Titans (away), Eels (home), Cowboys (home).
Strength of schedule: 99 (9th easiest)
Predicted finish: Have shown no signs of slowing down post Origin and have not lost when at full strength since their 12-8 boilover loss to the last-placed Tigers in Round 9. Whether they win the minor premiership or not depends on Ivan Cleary resting players before the finals – they’re unlikely to lose otherwise.
2. Brisbane (36 points, 16-5 record, +169 differential)
Run home: Eels (home), bye, Raiders (away), Storm (home).
Strength of schedule: 86 (3rd easiest)
Predicted finish: They deserve a top-two finish such has been their improvement this year but their three remaining matches are tricky as they look to secure their first home qualifying final since 2015. They would have to lose two of them and the Warriors to make up a 48-point differential to drop to third so that scenario looks unlikely.
3. Warriors (32 points, 13-7 record, +121 differential)
Run home: Tigers (away), Sea Eagles (home), Dragons (home), Dolphins (away).
Strength of schedule: 75 (2nd easiest)
Predicted finish: The fact that they’re in the finals is enough of a shock given dire pre-season predictions but being all but guaranteed of a top-four berth should clinch Dally M Coach of the Year for Andrew Webster in his rookie season by the length of the straight.
(Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
4. Storm (30 points, 12-8 record, +81 differential)
Run home: Raiders (home), Dragons (away), Titans (home), Broncos (home).
Strength of schedule: 104 (13th easiest)
Predicted finish: This Sunday’s match-up with the Raiders is a “four-pointer” if ever there was one – they’re still not guaranteed of a top-four slot if they win but given Canberra’s diabolical for-and-against record and the inconsistency of the teams below, Craig Bellamy’s side will be all but assured of avoiding a sudden-death start to the playoffs if they rack up their third straigh win over the Raiders after losing the previous five.
5. Canberra (30 points, 12-8 record, -74 differential)
Run home: Storm (away), Bulldogs (home), Broncos (home), Sharks (away).
Strength of schedule: 114 (15th easiest)
Predicted finish: They were fortunate to claw past the Tigers in Canberra last weekend and such is their unpredictability, they could go 4-0 or 0-4 to finish the season and it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise either way. The trip to Shark Park in Round 27 is set to have a major bearing on both teams’ prospects.
6. Cronulla (28 points, 11-9 record, +80 differential)
Run home: Titans (home), Cowboys (away), Knights (away), Raiders (home).
Strength of schedule: 105 (14th easiest)
Predicted finish: They were sinking without a trace with three straight losses but these Sharks made the biggest comeback from the dead since the latest Jaws sequel by rolling the Rabbitohs in Perth. All of a sudden their playoff outlook doesn’t look so bad but their mediocre record against quality opposition means they will probably finish around sixth and be finals fodder.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
7. Newcastle (27 points, 10-1-9 record, +74 differential)
Run home: Bulldogs (home), Rabbitohs (home), Sharks (home), Dragons (away).
Strength of schedule: 90 (6th easiest)
Predicted finish: They just did enough to down the Dolphins last Saturday and should be way too strong this weekend hosting Canterbury. Their moment of truth will arrive in back-to-back weeks against Souths and the Sharks. Will either finish a point inside or outside the eight.
8. South Sydney (26 points, 11-10 record, +80 differential)
Run home: Dragons (home), Knights (away), bye, Roosters (home).
Strength of schedule: 67 (Easiest in the NRL)
Predicted finish: At some point you’ve got to concede the Rabbitohs just aren’t going to click. Their stars are all on deck but they’re missing workers like Tevita Tatola and now that Tom Burgess has been banned and Jai Arrow is under an injury cloud, questions remain over who will do the grunt work to set up the fleet-footed Bunnies out wide. Won’t miss the finals but won’t go on a late-season run either judging on recent form.
9. Parramatta (26 points, 11-10 record, +65 differential)
Run home: Broncos (away), Roosters (home), Panthers (away), bye.
Strength of schedule: 96 (8th easiest)
Predicted finish: Only three games remain but it looks like tough sledding for the acoustic Eels sadly lacking electricity. Should have lost last Sunday to the Dragons if not for a bunker clanger preventing the underdogs going up by 16 in the second half. Will miss the finals after going so close last year to breaking their premiership drought.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
10. North Queensland (26 points, 11-10 record, +32 differential)
Run home: bye, Sharks (home), Dolphins (away), Panthers (away).
Strength of schedule: 86 (3rd easiest)
Predicted finish: Loss to the Titans and Brisbane in the past fortnight delivered a reality check and stalled the momentum they’d built from seven straight wins. Valentine Holmes’ ban is a huge blow and they will likely be in competition with the Knights for the last playoff spot but whoever gets in will not last much longer.
11. Manly (25 points, 9-1-10 record, -35 differential)
Run home: Panthers (home), Warriors (away), Bulldogs (away), Tigers (home).
Strength of schedule: 100 (10th easiest)
Predicted finish: With a couple of key Panthers out in Jarome Luai and Mitch Kenny, the Sea Eagles have a sneaky chance to pull off an upset on Thursday night. However, they have lost three middle forwards to injuries in recent weeks and have been the epitome of hot and cold all season. Unlikely to move up or down the ladder much in the final month.
12. Roosters (22 points, 9-11 record, -100 differential)
Run home: Dolphins (home), Eels (away), Tigers (home), Rabbitohs (home).
Strength of schedule: 86 (3rd easiest)
Predicted finish: Beating Manly last round was a step in the direction and if they can somehow win their remaining games they are a chance of sneaking into the top eight. But don’t bet on it – they’ve been well off the pace when taking on the leading sides this year and they’ll probably drop at least one result, if not more, in the closing rounds.
13. Gold Coast (22 points, 8-12 record, -53 differential)
Run home: Sharks (away), Panthers (home), Storm (away), Bulldogs (home).
Strength of schedule: 114 (16th easiest)
Predicted finish: Interim coach Jim Lenihan has done a decent job since stepping in for Justin Holbrook with an upset over the Cowboys and a decent showing with a 12-man side against the Warriors last week while Tino Fa’asuamaleaui was banned. Even if they can jag a win over the Sharks, there are bigger fish to fry on their schedule and there will be no Cinderella run to the finals ball.
14. Dolphins (22 points, 8-12 record, -94 differential)
Run home: Roosters (away), Tigers (away), Cowboys (home), Warriors (home).
Strength of schedule: 94 (7th easiest)
Predicted finish: Have exceeded expectations and deserve to finish ahead of the listless Bulldogs. A mathematical chance to make the finals but whichever way you spin the beads on Wayne Bennett’s abacus, it’s a long shot.
15. Canterbury (20 points, 7-13 record, -261 differential)
Run home: Knights (away), Raiders (away), Sea Eagles (home), Titans (away).
Strength of schedule: 104 (12th easiest)
Predicted finish: Could equal their longest winning streak of the year if they get up in Newcastle this weekend. The fact that the Bulldogs’ high watermark is two in a row tells you all you need to know about how bad they’ve been. Probably won’t lose by 66 to the Knights this time around.
16. St George Illawarra (16 points, 5-16 record, -145 differential)
Run home: Rabbitohs (away), Storm (home), Warriors (away), Knights (home).
Strength of schedule: 115 (17th easiest)
Predicted finish: Ryan Carr is rivalling Jim Lenihan for the unofficial interim coach of the year award as he has also done well to keep the Dragons competitive in the wake of the Anthony Griffin reign of error. They will upset at least one of their four remaining opponents because they have a dig each week.
17. Wests Tigers (12 points, 3-17 record, -217 differential)
Run home: Warriors (home in NZ), Dolphins (home), Roosters (away), Sea Eagles (away).
Strength of schedule: 103 (11th easiest)
Predicted finish: Were again unlucky to lose in Canberra last week but teams running last always think they don’t get the rub of the green because those 50-50 calls that invariably occur in a game are so much more vital when you’re a cellar dweller. A chance of another win before the year is out with plenty of players fighting for their NRL futures.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
:happy: Something to look forward to.
blacktown leagues
Roar Rookie
Last round Cowboys away at Penrith, last year game was in Townsville and the way I saw it Ivan rested half his squad because of the travel. I’m curious to see if he rests them playing at home. Could have a major bearing on who makes the eight.
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
Souths started the year knowing they had the most difficult draw of all teams in the first 10 rounds, having to play Panthers (x2), Storm (x2), sharks, Roosters, Broncos. No bye until after Origin (round 17). They were focussed and after 10 rounds they were equal top of table with no team playing footy as good as the Bunnies were. Once they got through that hurdle, it was widely expected that the next half of the Souths season's draw was relatively easy (3 byes, dogs, dragons (x2), tigers(x2) warriors, etc). Yet they fell apart, as you say only 3 wins since round 11 (v Tigers, Titans and Warriors) and tons of points conceded. Shocking. I can only put it down to attitude or mental preparedness to front up to each game. Our only hope is that the loss v Sharks was a jolt, and they start to build momentum over the next 3-4weeks peaking come finals time.
andrew
Roar Rookie
Solid win against Saints, we'll see BM. I thought Demetriou was the next supercoach.
steveng
Roar Rookie
Hope so BM and halleluiah and let’s hope they do :thumbup: love to see all that happen and the Bunnies do a BIG turnaround, as in the last 10 rounds I’ve been absolutely shocked and flabbergasted of what has happened to the Bunnies since R11, as this side was equal 1st with the Panthers and then they get beat in some games but in alot of these games they get smashed by the Eels, Raiders, Dragons, Cows, Dogs, Broncos, and the Sharks, which is absolutely unacceptable as the only wins they had is beating 2x byes and the Titans, Warriors and Tigers, so out of 24 points which 4 ere certainties, which leaves 20 points, they get 6 points and lose 14 points and 7 games, which this same team beat all of the sides in the 8 then fell apart and are in this dire situation of even struggling to make the 8! What has happened is NOT good enough from a professional side like Souths that has had so much experience of being in the top 8 and knowing what has to be done during the season to be in a favorable position on the ladder for the payoffs, as the same things have happened for a decade, there are no more excuses that the administration and/or the coaching staff who are NOT on their first gig or rodeo have, as imo they are to blame for NOT enforcing a higher standard onto these players, as they accept the near enough is good enough and the boys will come good blah blah blah, which they haven’t and its very embarrassing to see this great club fall apart like they have especially in 2023 mid season!
Horses for Courses
Roar Rookie
Roosters are already out, and you don't think they'd love to play spoiler to the bunnies?
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
Come on DP, you know Souths will enjoy knocking the chooks out for the second year running.
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
Steveng, I hope I am wrong but based on the recent form and our weakened forward pack (no Tom B, with Tatola, Arrow injured and the stooges at the Rabbits letting Liam Knight go!) I cant see the Bunnies beating the Knights in Newcastle in front of 20,000 of their home fans. especially since the Knights are playing for a spot in the 8. Not sure what JD is doing but it seems like the players are turning up expecting to have won the game without trying too much. A solid win v Dragons (points differential) and the bye should scrape us through to the 8..just...
Duncan Smith
Roar Guru
Don't know if he'll be match fit but at least he'll be fresh! Off the bench he might be a good weapon towards the end of each half.
steveng
Roar Rookie
You are right, the Bunnies have been very poor since R11 (won only 3 games plus the 2x byes) and its not looking much better in R23 as that loss to the Sharks was lazy and disinterested footy from all the team and just not good enough having a go when its too late and in the last 20min, this is like they have done for years now! All Bunnies fans just keep on hoping, we never say never but realistically they have to win every game and even then they have to get all the boys firing like Cody, Trell Graham and Arrow who's been a real disappointment with his injuries and even when he's right, he didn't do much. We have no forwards that can compete, especially with Burgess and Tatola as we haven’t got anybody there and we will get dominated, hopefully the boys can get over these last 4 rounds and make the 8 but even then its not looking good unless they all fire and get back to the form they had pre R11.
WithTheDawn
Roar Rookie
Reckon it could be for both, I'm not writing off the Roosters just yet. I'd have them favourites in each of the three games before the Souths one, and if they win those I'd have them as favourites there as well. Could go on a run and make that game quite interesting.
WithTheDawn
Roar Rookie
I'd genuinely have the Knights as favourites in that game, its in Newcastle as well. You know they are on a 5 game winning streak and one of the form teams of the comp right now, right? Likely a 6 game streak when they take your guys on. If the Rabbits play to their potential they will win, but I've been waiting awhile to see that... The good news is you are still right in the mix if you can suddenly get it right. But yes, I'd rate the Knights above you currently.
steveng
Roar Rookie
THE KNIGHTS :shocked: ??? If we get beat at this time of the season by the KNIGHTS, it will be really over and JD will have to be sacked. As the Bunnies have just gone from bad to devastatingly very very bad and have NO chance even in 2024, let's see what happens as we have plenty of backs and Jack coming but lack any quality forwards which is another blew and blunder that this Bunnies admin have got to answer for! Go You Bunnies, we still have faith JUST??? :laughing: :thumbup:
TinRattler
Roar Rookie
Be awesome to see the chooks bundle the block last round Glory glory glory
TinRattler
Roar Rookie
Go the dragoons
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
What I'm going to enjoy is different faces in the 8 - I hope. I did some research early in the year or '22 and in the past 10 or so years, there's on average only 2 changes in the 8 per year. I'm hoping there'll be 3 - Broncos, Knights and Warriors replacing Eels, Roosters and Sharks. Not the '4' I'd wish for but nice to see new teams in.
TinRattler
Roar Rookie
Love to see the warriors win it
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
I actually don't like your chances v Knights. You won't want the last game v chooks to be a must win for either.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
Paps??
WithTheDawn
Roar Rookie
Yep. That’s the great thing, there will be upsets. Someone rated well will bomb out, teams like the Dogs and Dolphins will snag a win or two. It’s a good even comp and very hard to predict. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the teams everyone is writing off like the Eels, Roosters, Manly make the 8. It’s good drama.