Pies cooked? Please - Why Collingwood are still clearly the team to beat in 2023

Collingwood is still the overwhelmingly likely premiership team in 2023 and a couple of matches won’t change that fact.

Maybe it’s because it’s the start of August, that time of the season where everyone is searching for an answer, or at least a sign.

The Magpies lost to Carlton in Round 20 and Hawthorn in Round 21. These two games weren’t necessarily a Collingwood problem and to overreact to them is a mistake. They were outplayed by better teams on the day, as every team tends to be in the competition, at some point in the season.

Could tactical changes have been made? Sure, but then we have to ask ourselves, what’s the point?

Now, there’s of course validity in the fact that Nick Daicos wasn’t supported enough when trying to cope with the tag. The senior playing group should cop that on the chin, as will the coach who has hardly put a foot wrong in his short coaching career.

Beyond that though nothing has really changed, other than perception. The strengths the Magpies have, the self-belief, the transition game, the positioning – a couple of bad quarters doesn’t wash away the effectiveness of these traits after 18 months’ worth of data suggests it’s successful.

Nick Daicos speaks with Jeremy Howe. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

Even the deficiencies of the Magpies, namely defensive one-on-one work with space, that’s not new information. If you’ve been watching this team under Craig McRae, you know they can be exploited by quick ball movement if the opposition clears its forward 50. Darcy Moore is outstanding, but he’s not perfect.

This week, McRae sort of addressed the elephant in the room regarding the dominance of Hawthorn’s James Sicily. Largely, he played it off in a tongue-in-cheek way, non-serious way that has been a refreshing perspective in his time in charge. Remember folks, footy’s just a game.

If the Magpies shut down the Hawks’ skipper earlier, it would’ve increased their chances of winning significantly. That’s not to say they didn’t try, although Taylor Adams isn’t particularly well-equipped to stop a player like that.

Let’s not take away all the credit from Hawthorn as this narrative seems to do. They played an outstanding style of football; then, instead of changing things up in the last quarter as they did against Richmond, Sam Mitchell decided to have his team play four quarters at equal intensity. Part of the strategy is to funnel players to certain areas that Sicily covers. They outplayed Collingwood and were able to force the Magpies’ ball movement.

Really though, what does McRae stand to gain from putting Beau McCreery on Sicily all game in a defensive role, or throwing Jeremy Howe forward to sit on him and make him accountable? We already saw that move against Carlton, so McRae knows it’s an option.

The reality is that at this point of the season, when a team has earned the right to be in such control of its own destiny, it’s a chess match.

History is littered with the best teams in the competition losing games they shouldn’t as the season goes on, with coaches prioritising method over results. They keep their cards close to their chests and produce unpredictable moves when necessary, rather than doing it wastefully and giving their challengers too much of a look at secondary plans.

In the last quarter, McRae used the playing time to give some nice midfield opportunities to those who don’t get much of a run and moved the magnets around, but not in any meaningful way.

(Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Collingwood didn’t need to try win the game once they were outplayed. In a final, it’s a different story but they don’t generally schedule finals in early August.

This is a team that has earned its right to be labelled as a clear favourite for the premiership and to have that revoked due to a couple of losses while another team enters its own streak is a bit too reactionary.

Granted, the Demons have always been one of the three best teams this season with the biggest upside for improvement, but that fact doesn’t take anything away from the Magpies.

We’re about to get a different look at the ladder leaders, without Nick Daicos through the middle.

It’s a little ridiculous to see opposition fans celebrating and self-validating their own misguided opinions on a second-year player who has been successfully restricted once in his career, but nevertheless, it’s a chance for the senior Magpies midfielders to step up with the ball in their own hands.

It’s far too simplistic to suggest there’s no Collingwood without their star young player, particularly when they can simply put Tom Mitchell back in, with spurts of solid contributors like Jack Crisp and Adams, perhaps even a bit of Josh Daicos and Patrick Lipinski.

We could see a more traditional midfield set up, one where a classic inside midfielder is simply there to feed the ball out to a Jordan De Goey, who can use his explosiveness to suit himself more than his teammates.

Let’s not forget how good Mitchell is at that role. Him being subbed off in recent times is more reflective of his role change, not his talent change.

Collingwood has managed to maintain its status as one of the best teams in the league against the odds for 18 months. They don’t have a great forward line on paper without a star, but it’s completely functional and expertly put together.

They only have one true midfield star, but they aren’t trying to win clearances every game – it’s about positioning at stoppages and restricting the movement of the opposition.

(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

The biggest strength is the defence and they can lock down and cramp the back 50 when they want – they’ve still been a dominant team even when letting through a flurry of goals in every game they play.

Really, the Magpies are a wonderful example of a team that aims to not expend too much energy and simply break even with opponents, giving them the chance to drive the opposition into the ground once they’ve made their foes work too hard too soon.

McRae isn’t trying to win in the same way the Tigers did at the end of the last decade, but the ethos is similar.

So when Collingwood loses, despite often being behind at some point in every game they win, it’s a surprise to us all, which is quite the compliment for the players and coaches.

Random red flags don’t suddenly appear due to a couple of losses, particularly when the team is two games clear atop the AFL ladder.

The same stats that some shows are using now as deficiencies could’ve easily been brought up at any point during Collingwood’s winning streak, and the numbers would’ve been the same. It’s a team, like many recent premiers, that don’t need the basic stats to do the talking.

The Pies’ structure is still excellent, their spirit and camaraderie is meaningful and their players are committed to their roles, which is more than can be said for almost every other team in the league.

They don’t need to start winning until September, but they’ll send a message or two in the final fortnight of the home-and-away season.

Craig McRae is a wonderful coach and has transformed this group into the best team in the league.

Collingwood is still the overwhelming premiership favourite – and August losses won’t impact that in the slightest.