Is it too soon to talk about Cam Roigard?

By Peter Darrow / Roar Guru

Are the stakes too high at the 2023 Rugby World Cup to give an up-and-coming player an opportunity at the big time?

Should the selectors ease a player into pool matches and off the bench for the win or go home games? Or do you bite the bullet and start him in the knock-out matches?

I’m talking about a player like Cam Roigard who scored a sensational try against the Springboks in the warm-up game. The try appears to be downplayed by observers, but this was a superb individual effort.

I’m not saying to select someone based on one try but is it his time right now. Start with Roigard to provide that spark of brilliance and slight obscurity and have Smith on the bench to provide the old head.

Sometimes when a match has gone like the warm-up one, it is too late for the potential match winner to come on, so why not start with him?

We saw back in 1991 the classic case of selectors picking players based on experience rather than form when the All Blacks lost to Australia in the RWC semi-final. Not saying Aaron Smith is out of form, but if that was Smith who came on and scored that try, he would have no contenders for his role.

It is a complex issue of what percentage of experience versus youth wins a Rugby World Cup, it appears to be more of a surge of form at precisely the right time. One factor is the lack of mental baggage carried by the inexperienced player against traditional rivals, we see it with first year players who have a brilliant season but then go off the boil in the second year when the opposition are more familiar with him.

Cameron Roigard with the Hurricanes. (Photo by Mark Tantrum/Getty Images)

There are many theories and opinions as to the perfect formula to win a Rugby World Cup, but is it as simple as picking the best players based on form and attempt to make decisions based on the right blend of objective and subjective thinking?

The team that makes the right decisions on players will win the World Cup. Ever hired anyone for a work role? The guy with the impressive resume should get the job, but that person who my gut was telling me to pick them won out.

Logic tells you that the brilliant Michael Jones should not have played in the 1987 Rugby World Cup after one match for Samoa and a tour with the NZ Barbarians, but the selectors took a punt and he was immediately a star in the rugby universe.

Of course, it is a complicated business though and we have seen plenty of “project” players who have not developed according to their potential.

It is a bit like backing a racehorse, some win, some lose, but when you get it right you reap the rewards. The great horse Seabiscuit lost his first 17 races but Tom Smith the conditioner sensed his greatness and the rest is history, the key being “instinct” won out on this occasion.

So, I come back to Cam Roigard the 22-year old Hurricanes half-back, who was one of the few shining lights against the Springboks with his try and comfort with rugby at this level.

His first points in an All Blacks jersey came from a brilliant break inside his own half, he fended off two defenders and outpaced the rest to just make the touchdown.

“Coach Ian Foster, after the heaviest defeat on New Zealand 35-7, will be alarmed at how his first choice selection were second best in every facet of the game,” from Radio NZ.

Do you look at the cold hard facts that this was just a practice game, the All Blacks played a fair percentage with 14 men, it was a wake-up call and the bookies still have NZ as favourites or do you foresee the future where it is now time for an up and comer like Roigard to be selected to start the big matches?

Tough call, I would say that Foster will go with Aaron Smith as he is a conservative coach who rewards his experienced players. But would it not be exciting for Roigard to make his mark?

I wonder what Scott ‘Razor’ Robertson would do?

The Crowd Says:

2023-09-16T11:43:46+00:00

Favourable Matchups

Roar Rookie


This is ageing well Peter!

2023-08-30T18:11:10+00:00

Terminator

Roar Rookie


Ratima has done NOTHING at Super Rugby level. You like him because he is a Chief, no other reason.

2023-08-29T15:34:53+00:00

Guess

Roar Rookie


Thanks for thoughtful reply. It’s all good in theory to play to your strengths but when you’re on a back foot it’s hard to dictate the rules. It’s pressure that leads to penalties and set pieces, even ‘unforced’ errors and brain fades can be caused by pressure on mental level. make the opposition pack run around the park rather than walk from set piece to set piece as the boks were able to do on Saturday. ..The AB’s needed to turn the boks around with snipping from the halfback, kicking from the halfback, and better kicking from 10 You’re right I noticed abs were too structured and it’s exactly how sa prefers. Problem is to play more unstructured rugby your forwards need to up their game, to make sa get into offside not allowing them to set up their defence, it will give backs more time for better decision making/better kicking. It’s a bit chicken and egg thing but ultimately it’s on forwards. Yeah lack of depth could be a problem but imo your best forward pack has parity against any team

2023-08-28T23:21:41+00:00

Northandsouth

Roar Rookie


Every half back looks bad when their forwards are beaten up and are going backwards. Aaron is no more a one trick pony than any other. If Cam started and our forwards got smashed they'd shut down his sniping game just as easily as Smith's passing game. They'd also have more time to target him while they were fresh. He's going great as a finisher - I say let him shine there.

2023-08-28T09:31:56+00:00

Otago Man

Roar Rookie


It's a risk for SA if they pick an early injury in the backs but Kwagga is at least able to play in the backs for defence.

2023-08-28T09:30:27+00:00

Otago Man

Roar Rookie


It;'s the sort of stuff I love talking about as I can make sense of what happened in the past. To be honest at the time I didn't feel that SA were hanging the man in the air at the lineout. That might of been true but ABs were slow to react. Libbock was superb with his kicking, something that the Barretts and Mo'unga can work on.

2023-08-28T07:51:06+00:00

Andrew

Roar Rookie


The Boks have plenty of great forwards for the reserves bench. Backs - not so much. But it would appear that back reserves are an optional extra as far as they are concerned!

2023-08-28T07:48:29+00:00

Andrew

Roar Rookie


Well it sounds like we could bore each other to death on the topic of NZ rugby history over a beer or two. Regarding the dumb penalties, it seemed to me that the 3 lineout penalties in a row on our 5m line at the start of the game cost us dearly. It set the scene for the team yellow against Barrett, and Sam Cane's yellow. It seemed to me that the Boks were keeping their jumper in the air for longer than usual, in order to draw the early engagement from our lineout defenders. If that's the case it worked a treat. Hard to know how a team defends in that situation - which I think Same Cane complained to the ref about after the third penalty. One other thing that struck me is the distance and accuracy of the Bok 10's line kicking, when they kicked penalties to touch. He consistently put the ball out on or close to the 5m line, which just ratcheted up the pressure on us. In contrast, Jordie's kicks were much shorter (can't remember if Mounga also kicked some), and as a consequence we failed to put the Boks under pressure with our attacking lineouts. I agree it is too late to change the game plan. It is possible that the stars could align and we sneak into the final as the Boks did in 2019. I am not hopeful though - I think it is more likely we exit in the quarters or semi's.

2023-08-28T07:33:01+00:00

WEST

Roar Guru


Hes our future! Watch him next year under Razor.. No Aaron Smith, Christie hasn’t performed to a high enough standard for me. I’d almost say Roigard could be our best 9 in the country next year.

2023-08-28T06:38:26+00:00

Jacko

Roar Rookie


Andrew I believe they played a certain plan and it was designed to put them under major pressure. The difference in plan came when 2 ycs were handed out after 15 mins. Watch the RC game between the two and you see the ABs backs standing 2mtres deeper and using more space before hitting the line. Using 2 man pods in the backs and bypassing them often to go wide and then switch back in. Then the second Bledisloe cup game we saw them revert back to the system they used on saturday plus they just ran the blind at every chance. Hardly went the open side in that 1st half, and again, I believe its to put them under pressure. It was noticed at the time in Auckland but to watch that game on the weekend it was ever so slightly varied. I think we will see the full game plan come first game then see it tucked away again until 1/4 finals.

2023-08-28T06:31:26+00:00

Jacko

Roar Rookie


I think you can DEFINATELY put Mounga into that "Last chance saloon" too. With him at 10 the record is nothing like it was prior to him being the starting 10 in end of 2018. Lots of bad records with Mounga at the helm. I just do not believe dropping Smith will solve anything when the pack is only 6 or 7 players but even if it was thought it might, Is Roigard, the totally unproven 9 with 1.5 tests to his name, really the answer at this point? That would be a very large gamble to take.

2023-08-28T06:26:15+00:00

Jacko

Roar Rookie


I dont see it that way. Who are they genuinely going to play instead of those chosen for that SA match? Apart from Frizzell and BR there isnt any real differences in those in the squad. Maybe put Dmac at 10 who seems to work better with BB or maybe ALB at 13 but really its cosmetics. If they aint good enough they aint good enough bassically. This is the coaching and playing group that we have representing us at this WC. Too late to change now.

AUTHOR

2023-08-28T05:22:13+00:00

Peter Darrow

Roar Guru


We won't really know if the game against the Boks was a true indicator of form for a few more weeks, if it goes in a similar manner against France first up then there should be some concern. If that were to happen it would be a huge risk to stick with the same players.

2023-08-28T04:53:20+00:00

Otago Man

Roar Rookie


Going back the 1992-1995 period it was a time of transition. The Auckland based team of that period had run out of steam and a few of the older stages were jettisoned. However there was younger Auckland talent that could step up along with a wider recognition of that talent throughout the country. The 1992 team dropped about 3 games but they played some exciting running rugby and were beaten by a champion Wallaby side by very slim margins. 1993 they tried to consolidate but the England defeat at the end of the year showed we still needed experienced muscle up front and greater speed in our 7. 1994 on the face of it was a bad year as Mains & co chose the wrong players in some positions. Little should of been restored to 12 earlier and sadly Kirwan was just past it by then. He gambled on Lomu and it just didn't work against the French. The playing style was conservative by then and it bit them. By 1995 Mains had a 7 suited to carry out a fitter and quicker game plan in Kronfeld. He also got a clever young 10 in Mehrtens and a rampaging Lomu. Grame Bachop was restored with his top quality pass at halfback. This current team is a much better one than we had mid way last year. Yes we got a hiding but I think we were caught with our trousers down by a side that learnt the lessons at Mt Smart and had played a decent game the week before. Remember most of the team on Saturday morning had not played for weeks. Highlander has pointed out that when the team got stressed they reverted to the bad old habits of miracle plays and dum dum penalties/cards (I mean the ones that didn't need SA pressure to happen). I don't think you can create two styles of play in the same season as there are not enough games to do that. SA didn't change their style from Mt Smart but just did what they do better. You are better off playing your best side right through apart from an easy pool game to create cohesion and keeping trick moves for the knock out games.

2023-08-28T04:29:40+00:00

Otago Man

Roar Rookie


I'm not insinuating you have a provincial bias but I raise that point about Forster and Bachop because that is a memory from that game that there were no Otago players. That was just the way things fell for that game, no grumbles here. I don't agree we don't have the cattle to win 3 games up front with the best teams as we are tough enough but the prep has to be good and played at a quicker tempo than the last game. I'm not claiming though that we are favourites for those 3 in a row but the potential is there. Just think about it from a reserve perspective, do those others teams have the 3 games in a row ability? SA have shown lately they actually don't, Ireland yes but they may be facing a better ABs side than last year, France yes as well, so along with Ireland are favourites. Forgive the expression hot potato but it serves well as a metaphor for the style of play running from the ruck rather than passing. It is a valid style but works best later on or as an alternate earlier on. In regards to our players being hit behind the advantage line that starts upfront. At the start of the year I was not sold on Barrett and Ioane as 12/13 but they make sense if they run hard and fast directly trusting for the clean ruck ball to come. They are both large men to suit the game plan.

2023-08-28T04:17:47+00:00

Andrew

Roar Rookie


Realistically, Smith will start the big games if fit. As other posters have said, its very late to change tactics. My frustration is more that we have persisted with same same players as back ups to Smith for some time, so we now we would be taking a massive risk to try something differently.

AUTHOR

2023-08-28T04:12:12+00:00

Peter Darrow

Roar Guru


You're talking a lot of sense Andrew. That sniping from halfback is a great asset, more so than the dreadful box kicking, which is why I like Roigard.

2023-08-28T04:07:43+00:00

Andrew

Roar Rookie


A further thought. I think sides employ the rush defence and inside out defence against us specically to neutralise Aaron Smith's passing game. I think his passing is our biggest attacking threat, when we have forward parity and parity in the centres. His passing is a match winner for the AB's UNLESS the opposition can stop the ball exiting our 10/centres. My problem is that 3-4 sides have the ability to do just that, and have regularly done so. I think it is foolish to keep trying the same thing and to expect different results. That not a recipe for winning the World Cup. If we had a forward pack and centres that could achieve even parity with the big teams, I would be all for Smith as the starting 9.

2023-08-28T03:58:06+00:00

Andrew

Roar Rookie


Hi Jacko, all great points. I am not advocating a clean out, or a youth policy. I am advocating dropping Smith to the bench, in order to start a player that gives the AB's different tactical options. Aaron Smith is probably the best AB half back of all time, and he is still (amazingly) at the top of his game. That is not the issue. Tbe issue is that since 2017, the AB's have failed in many crucial games because we have been bullied at the gain line by better forward packs and more powerful centres. Aaron Smith is not the right half pack when the All Black pack - and out centres - is behind France, Ireland, South Africa and probably England. Yes Smith has a great winning record but if you look at that record since 2016, it is not so good. We drew a Lions series, lost to Argentina home and away, lost to Ireland home and away AND a series in NZ, pumped by France, pumped by England at the World Cup, and just absolutely pumped by South Africa when we fielded almost our strongest side. We lost those matches because our forwards are not good enough, and we are average at centre as well. We need to accept the reality that we are not at the top tier in those departments, and adapt our tactics accordingly. I see little point in starting Aaron Smith if we are likely to be bested in the forwards and centres. His amazing passing skills are neutralised. Instead, I think we have to play more physical 9's who have a strong running game, who are happy kicking on first phase and who can physically impose themselves on their opposites.

2023-08-28T03:44:10+00:00

Andrew

Roar Rookie


Btw we will not be able to fix our forward play because we dont have the cattle to front up and win the collisions 3 games in a row. We are well behind the Boks, France and Ireland in forwadd quality and depth. Where did I advocate hot potato behind the advantage line? That is what we regularly get from Aaron Smith's passing game if our forwards are being pumped. What I would like to see is a 9 who snipes from the base, who has a varied kicking game and who physically harrasses his opposite 9 and 8 (since ref's give Faf free reign in that regard, we need to do it to). Our HB needs to kick the ball a lot more from first phase against the big boys cos our forwards and centres get put down behind the advantage line. Essentially, against the big physical teams, in our own half we need to play without the ball (except when there is a counter-attack on from broken play). Just so you know, I don't support any particular NZ super or provincial team. I want NZ rugby to beat all comers, and I pay no notice to which province AB's come from.

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