If the Boks had all their their first choice front row forwards (ie Marx and Bongi) and the AB’s had theirs with Frizell not carded, I think the Boks would have had an edge in first half scrum and it would have been even in the second half (assuming both teams replaced their front rows at the same time). The Boks edge in the first half could have been enough for them to win a few penalties.
Why do I say that?
De Groot seemed to be folding a little towards the end of the scrums in which SA held the ball in after Faf put it in (In the first half). De Groot struggled with the Ireland props simarly, and as far as I can remember he hasnt been dominant against the top teams (not criticising him, he has been good, I just think he has a lttle bit of development still to do).
With a more excitable ref, that little advantage to the Boks could have turned into a problem for us as the Boks would have tried to exploit it – their props are very streetwise.
The AB replacement front row was probably the heaviest we have ever fielded, and I would guess the strongest, tho not the most streetwise. I think it would have been a stalemate as the Bok replacement front row is also very big and very powerful.
Although those front row reserves would (IMO) have given us parity with the Bok scrum, no mean feat, it was at the cost of our general play.
Laulaula is slow. a bit clumsy and penalty prone. It was a win for the Boks to make us select the big man.
Samisoni contributes a lot of power and energy in the tight, far bigger contributor than Nepo, but he lacks the game smarts and handling of Coles. Again, win to the Boks for forcing us to start him over the better all round player.
Williams seems like he has an incredible future ahead of him as an AB prop. However, I think due to his relative inexperience, he has not been a big contributor in general play for the All Blacks. He often seemed to arrive late to rucks then join at the side with no particular goal other than to get in the way. He had a few nice touches and he didnt make any obvious mistakes, but I felt he was a bit lost (outside the scrums and lineouts that is). I think he would probably have been selected regardless of the strength of the front row tho, the selectors obviously felt he was contributing more than Ofa.
So Bliksem, for different reasons to you, I would give the “win” to the Bok front rows. Essentially, the strength of the Bok reserves forced us to field players that weakened our team outside the scrum and who were inconsistent with the AB’s high sped high skill game plan.

I didnt include him because he isnt an 80 minute player, nor has he doninated over a long period. He was massive for the Boks this world cup, off the back of the hard yards done by the starting team.

Brodie was at that level, but had not been as dominant since 2019. Aaron Smith is the best half back in a team that wants to play attacking rugby, but that skillset requires forward dominance. Jordie is almost at the level I am talking about, but I think it is harder, at least under the current rules, for backs outside 9 and 10 to exert the level of influence over a game that supernatural forwards can. Illustrated by PSTD’s targetting Jordy and to a large extent neutralising his special skillset on attack. Mounga is a super talented 10, but he does not exert the level of influence over tight games of a Carter, Sexton, Faf or Du Pont.

IMHO PSDT should have a lock on any world team sheet. He has everything – speed, power, handling, timing, height, incredible anticipation and reading of the game. Imagine Ardie and PSDT playing together!

As an AB fan, PSDT is a player I really worry about, along with Marx and Eben. I woumd have been happy to see PSDT as world player of the year, although I don’t know how his season was as a whole.

To me, the presence of Marx, Eben and PSDT as the spine of their pack together with Faf is what made the Boks of 2019 to 2023 a world beating team, just as Whitelock, Richie, Kieren Read and Dan Carter did from 2011 to 2015. Four player who were undisputable the best in the world in their positions who exerted almost supernatural control over the results of games.

Carter was injured in 2011 and this forced the AB’s to do it tough in the 2011 final. In 2023 Marx was out completely and the Boks had to do it tough in all the knock out games. I think the AB’s would have found the final a different proposition had Marx been playing, even with no cards.

The problem the AB’s had in this cycle was they really only had one player in that category, Ardie Savea. The WC first team had a lot of players that were right up there with the best in the world, but lacked those 3-4 difference makers particularly in the pack.

Incidentally, I dont think the rest of the Bok team were quite as good as their AB opposites. However, in a final I don’t think that mattered that much because the Boks were always going to try to win the game with smothering defence. I think PSDT, Faf and Eben were the difference that won the Boks the game.

Ha ha a nice way to describe it.

I wasnt a fan of Fozzie’s appointment as I felt the AB’s were losing their way under Hansen from 2017, so promoting Hansen’s assistant wasnt the right way to go. However I think he did a great job getting the AB’s to the final and despite it all they could still have nicked a win.

My fear is that South African, French, Irish and (when they get their act together) English rugby will continue to develop whereas NZ and Aus have been going backwards over the last four years. The South Africans leaving the super rugby competition was a major blow in that regard.

I don’t see how NZ and Aus can develop a similar level of competition between themselves whether or not the Pacific countries, Argentina and Japan are involved. Hence I think we are not far off selecting overseas based players for the All Blacks (which has been a factor in South Africa’s incredible depth).

Regardless of what one thinks about Foster as a coach, there is no doubt he didnt have the player resources at his disposal as many of his predecessors did.

So I thank him for his service, and wish him all the luck whatever he does next.

Let (those of us who want to) grasp at straws plese Bliksem….. 😊

After all denial is one of the stages of grief!

So I am as one eyed as the next AB fan. But I think the Boks were very happy defending a one point lead. I imagine they would have felt, and they have showed this before, that if they fell behind they would get down our end and score again.

The AB’s never had the lead, so the we never put real stress in them or in their 7-1 split.

I thought the AB forwards were good given they played a man down for 3/4 of the game. Bongi’s early injury stopped the scrum being a contest tho and ruined the Bok lineout. That was on Rassie of course, but it is on us we didnt manage to exploit it fully.

Overall, the AB’s were a lot better than I expected, but in the final showed the same failings that have dogged them for a few years. I am sad they didnt win, but I am trying not to dwell on it as I never expected them to get this far or to be this competitive with the Boks.

I don’t think it was a yellow either, it was clumsy but a lot of rugby injuries happen accidentally. However, I think Frizell probably put himself at risk by initially holding Bongi around the neck. He pulled out of that but that is possibly why he fell. Looked suss enough to interest the TMO.

The AB’s simply need to become more careful with their cleaning at the ruck and tackling. Take the TMO out if the equation.

We are saying the same thing 🙂

I’m a one-eyed AB supporter, but even I can see the AB’s have a discipline problem that costs them big games, going back to the SBW red against the Lions.
We can argue all night about whether individual decisions were right or wrong, but the overall number of cards we concede when playing physical sides tells the real story. We are inaccurate in the tackle, and prone to stupid decisions at the breakdown and when defending mauls.
Like 2007, NZ rugby needs to take a clear headed look at the way we play the game and commit to improving the flaws that are causing these outcomes. We arent completely in control of whether or not
cards are awarded against us but we can address the factors in our control.

Yes particularly as a lot of the Boks play or have played in Europe. I wasn’t meaning to imply this would be an advantage to the AB’s. Rather, I didnt think it would give the Boks an advantage.

Best wet weather performance I have seen – AB’s vs Wallabies at Athletic Park in 1996. Faultless rugby by the AB’s in driving rain for a 43-6 win. Hope the AB’s can channel that performance!

Yes agree Bliksem. The AB’s will attack off good first phase ball if they can get it, but they will stay close to their forwards to avoid turnovers. I think the Boks have the advantage going into the game as I think they have a bit more quality across the 23, and some of the AB backs are prone to panic when things are very tight. Still, I think the AB’s can still nick it with a good performance and a bit of luck.

I am also curious about the Boks fielding (essentially) a forwards pack for the first half and a pack for the second half. Given that you can only field 15 players at any given time, I am not sure it delivers a big advantage unless the opposition’s forwards aren’t fit enough to go the 80 or the opposition’s reserve forwards are a step down in quality. Both of those factors applied to the England team, but time will tell wherher that is the case with the All Blacks (I think it wont be).

I assume the AB strategy will be to make Faf, Handre and Bongi do a lot of work. If those three players start to tire, it will undermine the undoubted power of the Bok forwards (starters and reserves).

If Faf or Bongi go off injured, it would take a miracle for SA to win the game. Pollard is probably not so critical to the Bok strategy (after all the ball mostly wont get past Faf), but who will kick a 50m clutch penalty if Handre is off?

I personally dont think it was wise of the Boks to risk losing the game due to an injury to 9 or 2, for the gain made by adding a couple of extra forwards to the bench. Harking back to my point that you can only have 15 players on park at any given time.

All speculation my part of course, the Rugby Gods will reveal all on Sunday (nzt).

You would have to be part of the All Black setup to know what they talk about playing for in the lead up to a massive game like this. But I think we can safely assume it isnt anything to do with individual egos (we seem to have gotten rid of that culture post the 1987-91 team).
I am curious about the assumption of Bok supporters that rain gives them a big advantage. It rains a lot during the NZ rugby season and there is a lot of wet weather rugby. The All Blacks handling is good enough to play attacking rugby in wet conditions when the opportunity arises, although they would undoutably tighten up their gameplan to cut down handling errors.

NZ rugby has been behind the physicality of the NH teams since 2017… was very apparent in the Lions Series. Loss of the Boks from Super Rugby was / is a big blow.

Foster has managed to pull together a competitive (in terms of physicality) top 20 players, but gosh we are in trouble when a few of those get injured / are unavailable.

I am not sure that Razor has a magic wand to fix this problem. The standard of Super Rugby was really low this year, and there is no reason to expect it to be better in 2024.

Razor suggested he wants to select from NZ players playing overseas. I can see the attraction for him, but it seems likely this will compound the problems with Super Rugby.

Btw Foster’s track record reminds me a bit of Laurie Mains.

Hi Tony, I assume you are not counting the penalties where the AB’s scored under advantage? I think that would have been at least 5 pen advantages? Gardener gave them several warnings / talkings to, under threat of a card.

Lol me too 🙂

Lol, AB’s to win. He is undecided about the final however 😱 😱 😱 😱 😱 😱

Another anecdote. My enthusiasm for rugby started to wane after attending the AB’s v Lions game in Welly in 2017. I shouted my dad (in his late 70’s) a ticket to go to the match with me. We had drunk Irish supporters behind us, who were swearing at the top of their voices at the AB’s, calling them “F@cking cheats” and worse. The vitriol and abuse they screamed when Sonny Bill was red carded was really nasty, and quite upset my Dad. He wont go to a live game as a consequence.

It wasnt so much the fact that we had some drunken dicks behind us that upset me, it was the baying for players to be given cards, and the glee when a player was sent off. It seems to me that some teams are angling for cards to be given, and behave as if that is actually a sign of skill, like winning a penalty in football.

Crowds certainly behave that way, and I think it affects the deciaon making of match officials and TMO’s.

I don’t believe this is part of the AB culture, although our senior players do ask the question of the ref sometimes. I wouldnt want that to become something the AB’s play for or act up about.

Hi Peter, glad to hear I am not the only one 🙂 I only reengaged because my adult son has been living with me and he has wanted to watch all the rugby this year… he has been unwavering over the last 12 months in claiming we would beat the Irish in the quarters. Normally I would hate to admit he was right and I was wrong, but in this instance I was very happy to do so!!!!

Aaaaaah hubris, the prideth that cometh before the falleth ????

Good thoughts Peter ???? Personally I am still getting my head around what it feels like to dump the hot favourites out of the World Cup knock out game.
As an obsessive AB fan the disbelief of the losses in 95, 99 and 2007 is, I imagine, how the Irish fans are feeling. Pinching yourself for days, weeks and months, did that really happen. I found it only really got better once the AB’s started to play again and then once we had beaten the side that booted us out.
E.g. the series victory in South Africa was sooooooooo sweat not only because it was the first, but because the AB’s showed they were better than than the Boks who found a way to beat us in the 95 final.
I would be the first to acknowlege that it is not that healthy to invest this much emotional energy as a spectator into what is after all just a game. But I can see the same emotions etched over the faces and comments of the Irish supporters and I empathise.
This time around I have tried not to invest as much into the AB’s results because we have been off the pace for some years, and our depth has not been what it used to be. We seemed very dependent on having all of our best players available.
I gave us a chance by the time the quarters came around because we had our best 15 fully fit with a decent bench, but I thought Ireland would probably still be too good for us.
Having achieved what, frankly, seemed nearly impossible over the last 18 months or so, I am not tooooo bothered if Argentina upset the AB’s or if we lose in the final. I think Foster, his coaching team and the senior players have put the AB’s back on track. I hope that Razor and the NZRFU can build from here (God knows NZ rugby is facing serious headwinds).
I suspect the World Cup has at least one more surprise up its sleeve. If that surprise is the Pumas getting over us, so be it.

My kids played soccer thru school so I havent experienced that at a rugby match … but Kapa Haka festivals were spine tingling particularly when the whanau in the audience joined in / contributed impromptu hakas.

Attended graduation at Otago uni this year for ine of my kids and the whanau of some of the Maori and Pasifika graduates performed impromptu haka in the crowd, spine tingling again. It made the graduation a bit chaotic at times but it was a nice antidote to the otherwise stuffy ritual.

@Handles The Wallabies were far too good for the AB’s in the 91 semi. They made us look pedestrian.

The Wallabies had so many great players in that team, the ones that I particularly remember are Campese, Horan, Little, Nick Farr Jones, Lynagh, Phil Kearns, Willie O. Those players tormented me as a AB supporter for years to come!

That game tarnished the legacy of wuite a few big name AB’s, some of whom were quite arrogant and complacent.

In hindsight, that game and the 94 Bledisloe in which Gregan knocked the ball out of Jeff Wilson’s hands were defining moments for the AB’s. We had to ditch percentage rugby, and we have never gone back to it.

The decline of Wallaby rugby is sad to reflect on, after those glory days.

Wow the France v Boks game was intense! Two great sides going at it 100%, on edge of their ability rather than playing it safe or taking the easy option.

Much more attacking rugby across the quarters than I had expected. Bodes well for the semi’s and the final.

Commiserations to the French supporters. France are a young side and look like they will have their time in coming years. Still, I can only imagine how miserable it must feel to lose at home, in such a tight game.

Congrats to the Bok supporters. I am really enjoying watching this Bok side, way more exciting than the 2019 cul winner IMHO.