I was seven years old when the Wallabies won the Rugby World Cup in 1999 and I was 11 years old when we went agonisingly close in 2003. In that four-year stretch, the Wallabies held a winning record over the All Blacks, the Brumbies won the Super Rugby Championship in 2001 (and again in 2004), and put simply, I was on top of the world!
I remember saying to my Grandpa “How good’s this, the Wallabies always win”. My Mum would later tell me that he looked at me with a sheepish grin, later telling her that I had no idea about the heartache previous Wallabies fans have had to endure. Unfortunately, I have endured that heartache plenty since I was that naïve young Wallabies fan.
Eddie Jones has acknowledged that the Wallabies have been below satisfactory in recent memory, with only 12 victories from 33 matches since 2021 but with all that being said, I still hold faith that the Wallabies can hold aloft the William Webb Ellis trophy in October later this year.
Yes, I’m an optimist. Yes, I might be naïve… but if you’ll indulge me, I have 3 key reasons why I think the Wallabies can win the World Cup.
(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
Fortune
The pools for the World Cup were drawn more than a year out from the World Cup and before our slide down the rankings. As a result, we’ve landed in a pool with Wales and Fiji and we’re on the side of a finals schedule that will see us play Argentina or England in the Quarter Finals. In other words, assuming we progress either first or second in our pool, the highest ranked team we can expect to play is Argentina (6th).
Admittedly, Argentina has improved immensely under Michael Cheika and England can always pull out a good performance (albeit a dour one), but in the scheme of who we’d rather face in the Quarter Finals, it doesn’t really get much better.
Timing
Following on from our good fortune, this allows timing to come into play. The first game of the World Cup for the Wallabies is Georgia, who are certainly not the ‘easybeats’ they once were. This fixture shapes as an important match where the Wallabies should be expected to win and find some form before their intriguing matchup with Fiji.
Similar to Argentina, Fiji are much improved thanks to their superstars in the French leagues and the familiarity they’re building in the Super Rugby Competition. But again, the Wallabies are a better team than Fiji and this difficult match-up shapes as one that can consolidate the gains from the Georgia match.
Before our last pool match against Portugal… which in fearful honesty, presents itself as an opportunity to rest some key players, the match-up against Wales can become a final opportunity to sharpen our iron before progressing to the Quarter Finals where we have a reasonable chance of winning.
Once we’re in the Semi-Finals, it’s anyone’s game and it’s where the last factor can come into play.
Carter Gordon. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Experience
Eddie Jones is a storied coach with well known success at the World Cup. On top of this, he has a young group of malleable players who in my opinion, should be riding a wave of momentum with 5 World Cup wins to negate the 5 losses he’s experienced thus far.
A red-hot young team that’s been prepared for World Cup Rugby, with a strategist in the form of Eddie Jones shapes as a dangerous proposition for any team in the world, and whilst inexperience in the playing group might yield cracks under pressure, similar to that young Wallabies fan at the turn of the century, this naivety might allow for some incredibly rugby.
Regardless of the outcome, this World Cup shapes as the most exciting World Cup I can remember, with any one of 8 teams expected to have a shot. Personally, I’m hopeful for Australia (obviously), but I’m genuinely excited to see the French dazzle the world, the All Blacks to perform as they usually do, and the Boks to literally bash down the door for a back-to-back triumph… but I’m expecting a lot of upsets along the way.
Frankly
Roar Rookie
lol
Andrew Nichols
Roar Rookie
Why are you weary of Fiji? What have they done to bore you?
Andrew Nichols
Roar Rookie
1. All 15 of the opposition are red carded 2. All their opponents are stricken with dioarrhea 3. All their opponents sleep in and miss the match.
Footy Franks
Roar Rookie
Agree the All Black back row is their weakness.
Footy Franks
Roar Rookie
Agree this is the most exciting World Cup. I hope the officials don’t ruin it thru cards.
Stu
Roar Rookie
Lovely first article, well done. I don’t share the same optimism I’m afraid, but I’ve been wrong and corrected many times before. Among a litany of other shortcomings, I presume Georgia, Fiji and then Wales will have belted our thin forward stocks to the point of injuries, that our thin stocks will see us limp out after the group stage, or maybe a quarters exit on last legs. I just don’t see that any side can mix it with the heavy hitters anymore unless they have genuine depth across all positions. But hey.. maybe our guys will be Teflon-coated for 2 months. Here’s hoping!
ShortBlind
Roar Rookie
Congrats on a positive and well written first article Optimist. :thumbup: Like you I have a positive mindset about what the Wallabies can achieve at this RWC. I watched a replay of the French game yesterday and it reiterated that the Wallabies are not as far away as the score line suggests: 1. CG shaved the post twice early on but was striking it well. He will improve and won't kick as badly again. 2. Tupou, other than his scrumming, was a disaster. His shoulder charge penalty was a turning point as Dupont played on fast, put France on the attack and soon after Suli was in the bin. The whole thing caused us massive points and was readily avoidable. 3. Australia could have easily been awared a penalty try when Petiai and Kellaway were struggling close to the line. The French player lay all over the ball and stopped quick access in a try scoring position. 4. France got every bounce of the ball possible. There were a few other things and I think the OZ back 3 will take a lot of lessons out of the French attacking kicks where they were exposed for several tries. This is not an excuse, Australia were well beaten but 3 tries to 4 and considering the above I think our upside ceiling is huge. As long as our props can stay healthy and the team builds through some wins in the pool games we can go deep. Fiji looms as our biggest game, no disrespect to the boyos.
piru
Roar Rookie
I've been saying it for two years
Fiordla d
Roar Rookie
I'm picking the Wallabies to potentially not make it out of pool play. Fiji I'm picking to highly likely top the pool, they're fit and know this pool is a great chance to do so. However I'm not expecting either to win a semi final. Anything's not possible at the world cup, it never really has been. I expect the Boks to go back to back and an upset would be France or the Allblacks winning instead. I don't think Ireland has any chance as the Bok pack are better than 2019 with awesome back talent. Australia is a long way off the excellent Irish side. The Allblacks don't deserve to win at their lose forward trio is very weak compared to the McCaw era work none of the back row good enough to displace Kaino, Read.. France and the Allblacks need huge luck to win
Reds Harry
Roar Rookie
Firstly, my commiserations on your quarter of a century Wallaby supporting experience ... the last 20 have been pretty dismal from the perspective of this 50 years Wallaby supporter. My own view is that things aren;t going to get better until we take the hard decisions to improve the overall structure of the game in Australia ... the lack of a viable 3rd tier being the most pressing. That leads to weak SR teams, and that leads to the Wallabies having to be used as a development team, rather than the national pinnacle that players arrive into ready for test rugby. Secondly I am tired of all these articles explaining what an easy draw the Wallabies have ... yes we do, however IMO we've squandered this with what I think can be labelled a pretty disastrous 2023 to date. Turning this around with 4 pool wins will be a singular achievement. Lets see in what shape we arrive in at the quarter final but I fear it may not be convincing. Anyway hope your optimistic view eventuates! Go the Wallabies.
TheARUOptimist
Roar Rookie
Haha - fortunately for satirical purposes… funny things can happen at a World Cup!
TheARUOptimist
Roar Rookie
I can imagine and I do imagine. I’m a big believer in betting with your heart (sans money of course) I believe and I’m along for the ride!
TheARUOptimist
Roar Rookie
I hope I’m right too!
TheARUOptimist
Roar Rookie
Fingers crossed! I think we’ll be better than we were last year under Rennie and that saw us within 3 points of the top 3 and beating the Boks.
adastra32
Roar Rookie
"All is for the best in this, the best of all possible worlds". Bonjour Dr. Pangloss! Great sentiments and how very Aussie-French. Sadly, Voltaire's 'Candide' was satire.
Frankly
Roar Rookie
Anything can happen in a world cup. It is a long tournament and sometimes a team needs a bit of luck to go their way. Do I expect the Wallabies to win the cup? No. Do I think they can possibly win? Definitely, yes. For the Wallabies sake, I'm weary of Fiji. They are possibly the inform team in either Pool C or D, and probably hold the underdog status against Wales, Wallabies, England and Agrentina. The other thought comes to mind is, through adversity, comes opportunity. It is scenarios like this is where legends are made. Can you imagine this, Carter Gordon, at full time, slotting a penalty from 40m out to beat the All Blacks and progress to the World Cup final? Let's strap in an enjoy the ride.
The Late News
Roar Rookie
Cheers! First article? Well mate I hope you are right. Frankly I don't know!
Ankle-tapped Waterboy
Roar Rookie
Agreed. Getting to Rennie's semis is quite feasible, and from there winning the semi for the final, and winning the final, come down to the vagaries and dice rolls of Tournament play.