NRL Finals week 1 preview talking points: Capacity controversy, everyone’s the underdog … It’s finals time!

Finals, baby! Home to the deserved and undeserved alike. Where miracles happen, contenders unleash and pretenders get moved out of the way fast. Here come your midweek talking points for our first round of NRL Finals.

It’s truly the best time of the year

Players were rested, gameplays were simplified, energy was conserved and it’s all set to bust out now this weekend. We’re in the new season, the real season, where the intensity ratchets up, the pressure is intensified and you can quickly tell who’s up to it and who isn’t.

Finals footy is a different beast to regular season. Games are refereed harder – you won’t get set restart after set restart and penalties will be few and far between so it’s critical to make the most of your time on the ball.

Only the most resilient defences will succeed. If your structure can’t hold under pressure or if you switch off for a couple of plays, you’ll be gone.

(Photo by Izhar Khan/Getty Images)

Don’t play at construction sites

Everyone’s had their say about Cronulla hosting the Roosters at their home ground which for some reason remains unfinished, a year after they played a (losing) final there last season.

I’ll keep it short – This is the finals. The ever elusive ‘casual fan’ watches these games on TV and might even go to attend one. It’s the time for high rolling types to be all over the corporate hospitality.

If the game’s serious about presenting itself in the most favourable light, it just cannot play a top four final at Cronulla in its current state.

I’d say the same for Penrith’s stadium too, but they’ve got a slightly more reasonable geographic argument.

The weekend ahead

Only four games and we’re going to approach them with an ‘energy rating’.

My ‘predictable energy’ game is 5v8, Newcastle hosting Canberra, who five weeks ago were in the top four then tumbled badly. To be frank, Canberra’s only here because South Sydney, North Queensland and Parramatta all fell on their own faces when it seemed harder to miss the finals than to make it.

Can the Raiders win? It could happen, but it’s as likely as me kayaking around the globe. Newcastle are in scorching form with nine wins on the trot, a fit squad and a screaming home ground which will be rockin’ come Sunday afternoon.

Marata Niukore and Shaun Johnson celebrate. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

The ‘interesting energy’ game is 1v4, Penrith hosting New Zealand on Saturday afternoon. The Panthers stated to gear themselves up for real football over the last fortnight while New Zealand have been doing all they need to do and not much more. Will Andrew Webster’s team be able to go toe to toe for 80 minutes with finals mode Penrith?

There’s a bit of a hoodoo to get past for New Zealand, who’ve only beaten Penrith twice in 13 games since 2016 (their most recent being in 2019). Of their 11 losses only three were by a single digit. So it hasn’t been close. This is a different Warriors team, but this is the same Penrith.

The weekend’s ‘combined energy’ matchup is 6v7, Cronulla hosting the Roosters on Saturday night at their construction site. The Roosters are on a five game win streak, Cronulla patchy as ever. The Sharks feast on lower clubs, they are feasted upon by more talented clubs.

Are the Roosters a talented club? They’ve definitely pulled themselves together after they looked done and cooked for season 2023 as recently as a month ago. This game will be week one’s most interesting.

The ‘marquee energy’ game is 2v3 on Friday. Melbourne head to their home away from home to play Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium.

A child born in Brisbane on March 20, 2009 has gone through primary school and today would be sitting in a year nine class. They’re old enough to be allowed to work at McDonalds (with their parent’s permission) and in their entire lifetime they’ve never seen the Brisbane Broncos beat the Melbourne Storm at their home ground.

The Storm are on a month-long win streak, Brisbane are at full tilt after resting key players in another home loss to Melbourne to round out the regular season. This game is the pick of the bunch and it’ll go a long way to setting the board for the rest of the finals series, with the loser having to (more than likely) go through Penrith to make the Grand Final.

Reece Walsh. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Finals week one random observations

• Rugby league’s tradition of clubs hosting their awards nights before finals kick off is underway. I understand some teams book ahead with realistic appraisals of how their season’s going to go, but it can’t be that hard to wait until after the grand final and the season is ‘officially’ over, surely?
• This year has been huge for NRL crowds and television ratings. A decent finals series could punch the numbers ever further into record territory.
• Penrith fullback Dylan Edwards signed a no-fuss extension with the premiers during the week, due reward for a job well done so far.
• Canberra are the first team to make the finals without winning a game by more than 13 points, and they’re the first team of the NRL era to have a winning season (13-11) and a point differential in the triple digit negative (-137).
• Referee Ben Cummins announced his retirement after 442 games, 14 State of Origin matches and five grand finals. It was interesting during the week to see his comments that his son is umpiring Australian Rules instead of rugby league because of the abuse and treatment rugby league referees get. Go well Ben – you’d be hard pressed to find a sport in the world that treats its match officials worse than rugby league does.

What’s got you talking this week, Roarers?