Ah, September. The sun is shining and blossoms are blooming as we emerge blinking into the spring sunshine from our (thankfully) brief winter hibernation.
The air is redolent with the smell of cut grass. But more importantly for us rugby league tragics, September smells like semi final football.
The competition resets and restarts as the chaff is finally separated. Spring promises rebirth and the dawning of a new season. The thrill of the unexpected.
Except I look at the ladder and think… haven’t we seen all this before?
Obviously we have Ivan Cleary’s mighty Panthers team seeking an historic three-peat. But it actually goes a bit deeper than that.
The Panthers, Storm and Roosters have won the last six premierships. That’s 19% of teams combining for 100% of titles. But it goes deeper than that.
Penrith celebrate in 2022. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Those three great clubs have won the minor premiership for the past ten years. Ten! To put into perspective how long it’s been, the last ‘other’ team to raise the JJ Giltinan shield was… the Bulldogs. 10 years is a long, long time in rugby league.
Over the past six years this trio has dominated, they’ve also accounted for eight of the 12 grand final spots. That hasn’t left much for the rest of us with the Eels, Rabbitohs, Raiders and Cowboys nabbing a losing grand final spot each on behalf of the rest of the competition for that six year window.
The next layer down is the preliminary finals. In the past six years there have been 24 prelim spots available. The big three – plus Souths – have accounted for 17 of them. That’s 70% for just 25% of the competition.
It’s a similar story for the all important top four ladder positions. There have been 28 of them available (including this season). The Panthers, Storm, Roosters and Rabbitohs have claimed the vital ‘second chance’ 17 times – or 60%.
“Yeah, but that’s just the top end of town. Look at this year, three teams from last year’s semis didn’t make it. That happens most years. There’s a good rotation of teams.”
Most years we have three ‘new’ teams playing in September. However again, when you look at the numbers a bit more closely, it’s not the re-generation it appears to be.
Melbourne celebrate in 2020. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
In the last seven years, the Storm and Roosters have made the semi finals seven times. The Panthers and Sharks six and the Rabbitohs and Eels five times. That’s 37% of teams claiming 64% of semi final positions over seven years.
So while we see 2-3 new teams each September, it’s pretty much the other ten teams (11 this year) cycling through the same 2-3 spots.
To be clear, I’m looking forward to seeing whether the Panthers can be the first triple crown winners since the 81-83 Eels. It’ll be a massive achievement. I can’t wait to see if the attacking styles of the Broncos and Knights can upset the apple cart. Can the old warriors of the Storm and Roosters find a way to lift for battle once more when the bugle sounds? Maybe the Sharks, Warriors or Raiders can nab an unexpected title. Any of these outcomes will be a wonderful narrative.
Maybe there’s an element of sour grapes to this because my club isn’t one of those top teams. However, it doesn’t seem that long ago that clubs had a premiership window of 2-3 years before they had to have a ‘rebuild’ of their roster.
Now it seems that window is extending to 6-7 years – possibly more. Same for the rebuilds, Maybe it’s always been this way. Most of my footy fandom has seen the Bulldogs in the top eight, top four and vying for premierships, so I never noticed. It’s tough looking from the bottom up. I don’t think we even bother looking down from the top of the castle.
The Roosters celebrate in 2019. (Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Is it a case of ‘bad clubs be better’? Probably. Is it that simple? Probably not.
I think it’s great having dominant teams to set the standards and for the rest of the competition to strive to match. The big clubs I’ve mentioned deserve every single ounce of their success. They’ve each got there in slightly different ways, which is a great sign for the chasing clubs. They can all be held up as model organisations with exceptional leadership and business acumen.
But, do we want to see an English Premier League style competition where it’s pretty much the same sides in the top six season on season? Do we want a couple of clubs dominating titles for a decade at a time?
At the start of the NRL era the premier list read Broncos, Storm, Broncos, Knights, Roosters, Panthers, Bulldogs, Tigers. Their grand final opponents were Bulldogs, Dragons, Roosters, Eels, Warriors, Roosters, Roosters, Cowboys. That’s a pretty reasonable representation. Maybe it’s that era that was the fluke.
Has something changed significantly or am I just jealous and jumping at shadows?
Roll on, September.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Update - given the winner of Roosters v Storm will play Penrith for a spot in the GF we now have: 11 consecutive minor premierships for the Storm, Roosters and Panthers 9 of the past 14 grand final spots for the Storm, Roosters and Panthers 19 of the past 28 prelim spots taken by the Storm, Roosters and Panthers
criag
Roar Rookie
Yes, the best reason for having a final 8 has always been that little figure you get when you type SHIFT + 4 on your keyboard.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I’d bet broadcasters don’t and they’re largely paying the bills…
The Barry
Roar Guru
I’m definitely old enough to remember that !!! It’s funny how things like that get baked in as fact. How many times have you heard “the sin bin is for professional fouls, not foul play…”
criag
Roar Rookie
Absolutely. And just off topic, I wonder how many remember the sin-bin wasn’t originally there for professional fouls (and the rest, now) and that it was originally brought in to settle players down when there’s been a brawl, like in ice hockey, and that it could be for 5 mins.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I agree 100%. That the salary cap is supposed to create some sort of equality is one of the biggest misconceptions in rugby league There’s also plenty other areas that impact (eg junior catchments, facilities, coaches, staff, grounds, etc) where clubs compete that making creating an “equal” competition impossible That’s why I wrote “parity is a secondary and fundamentally flawed part of the salary cap”. Creating an equal comp is not what it’s there for
criag
Roar Rookie
I think we’re all expecting too much from the salary cap. But I just want to point out again, the forgotten fact is that the salary cap was not introduced to create a utopian socialist rugby league competition where everyone wins a prize. It was brought in to stop incompetent, irresponsible administrators sending their clubs financially to the wall, causing their clubs to fold. The fact that it has spread players around more has been a by-product that the NRL has certainly cashed in on in the media, but it was put in place to make sure your club survives – nothing else. And although I do agree it’s harder for clubs to lift themselves up from a hole, these things do work in cycles, and I’m confident it can be done by any team with a decent front office. It’s hard to win an NRL title….damn hard! Even my team, which has been successful, have been unable to win as many as they had the potential to.
criag
Roar Rookie
That's another reason why I think a final six would be a better than an eight. It may be that there is more of a reasonable ability to win from outside the top 4. The question is, does the rugby league world really want that?
The Barry
Roar Guru
Panthers, Storm and Roosters all made the eight. Two of them finished in the top four. All three have survived until the top six. Two of them have to make the final four. One of them definitely has to make the grand final Is that really what you call the comp being turned on its head…?
The Barry
Roar Guru
Yeah agreed I think Penrith has proved over the years that just having a big junior nursery isn’t enough. You need strong systems in place to identify the elite talent, ensure they go into the right pathways and maximise their development Just assuming it’s a production line and the next generation will always come through is probably a big part of why the Panthers have only been successful once every 20 years or so. Remedying that is probably a big part of why they’re having sustained success now It is a massive advantage to have a huge nursery… but you still have to do the work As you say, there’s plenty of ways to identify and develop juniors if you don’t have a big junior area… but again, only if the club is prepared to do the hard work and have strong systems. There’s a common theme The Panthers, Roosters and Storm are all good at junior identification and development but all do it in different ways Again, you’re correct. Clubs saying “yeah, but we don’t have…” is just excuse making
Pomoz
Roar Rookie
Suallii was born in Penrith and played for the Glenmore Park Brumbies. Another club, not Penrith, signed him and whether it was Kings or, whoever doesn't matter. The point is, he is a Penrith local and yet ended up at South's. How do you get more elite junior coming through if you can't force them to sign with you? Anybody can offer a Panthers local a contract. In the case of Suallii, somebody did. It is far from uninterruptible if other clubs start scouting the area. Clubs have got to do the work. It's not hard to hire a talent scout to come and watch teams in the Penrith area every week. Not a long drive for any Sydney club. Furthermore, for most teenagers Penrith is probably the worst place in Sydney to live. No beaches, no nightlife, no decent restaurants, no elite sponsors. In the end, all I hear are excuses. Clubs won't invest in development and recruitment, it takes effort, vision, money. The returns aren't immediate, but it is essential to the lifeblood of every team.
Tufanooo
Roar Rookie
Actually, the Eels don't sit in a massive junior area. Wests I'll give you. Suallii wasn't signed from Glenmore Park. He was signed from Kings. Kids are not indentured to play for their club, but it means that a club like Penrith can afford to let more go and play for others, because they have more of the elite juniors coming through. And the Panthers haven't sat in this massive junior area since 1967. They've sat in it since the mid-90's when the HUGE influx of Pacific Islanders started moving to those neighbourhoods. And funnily enough, they've started to become seriously competitive once the kids who were born since then grew up. My point with Penrith is that they are unlikely to ever drop into the bottom 4 again. They will have a near uninterruptible pipeline of juniors where they will get first pick at the best.
Pomoz
Roar Rookie
How does that make the slightest bit of difference? The West Tigers and the Eels sit in massive junior areas and the Roosters have no juniors. At the end of the day you can only sign 30 players and a team at each junior level. There is nothing stopping any team going anywhere in Australia to recruit players. Clubs just use this as an excuse. Jams Fisher Harris was recruited from NZ. There was nothing stopping West Tigers recruiting him. Suallii was signed from Glenmore park, a Penrith suburb. The West Tigers could have signed him. Kids are not indentured to play for their local club. Just to drive this point home further, the Panthers have been sat in this massive junior area since 1967, why weren’t they dominating from the get go? The only advantage they get from that is there are plenty of teams to watch locally and so they don’t have to drive all over Sydney to watch young players. Sadly, for many years I had to watch my team sit inside the huge junior base, winning wooden spoons and not making the semi-finals for ten years straight. I think Gordon has it right “Good Board + good front office + good coaching + good recruitment & retention = premiership contending team”. Recruitment and retention has nothing to do with how far you have to drive to watch kids play.
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
Which again makes it imperative to have a strong front office, Board, etc in place. Shane Flanagan is a proven first grade coach, but the management at the Dragons is basketcase level. He not only has to lift a squad to an acceptable level, but has to deal with management structures that have been poor for nearly a decade. And if the team does poorly, that same poor management will blame him. Who'd want to be a coach?
The Barry
Roar Guru
I think it’s a lot harder and a bigger learning curve for rookie coaches. Not sure when the last rookie coach to win the NRL occurred but it feels like a while. There’s also not a lot of winning experienced premiership coaches out there. So it’s getting harder to go and recruit a Warren Ryan for example
KiwiBear
Roar Rookie
@ The Barry 'It’s definitely up to the weak clubs to get their act together' That is only partially true , yes you can expect all clubs to get their act together and the organized clubs will take advantage of disorganized or badly run clubs but clubs that have financial clout will be able to survive mismanagement. But you get 1 thing wrong in a lesser club and you are in a death spiral where as a premium club will write of those loses and just reset the program. All clubs get the same NRL grant that's equality but if you give less to those that have more and more to those that have less then that's equity.
The Barry
Roar Guru
It’s a good point. I was listening to a podcast during the week and they were talking about the Storm’s Jack Howarth who’s been the next big thing for a while, signed a big five year deal and has barely been sighted Apparently part of Bellamy’s reasoning for holding him back has been the two years of footy he missed. He wants him to spend a bit of extra time in reggies to make up for the development he missed…
Tufanooo
Roar Rookie
The Tigers, Dragons and Doggies would be hard pressed to explain why they’re paying more than the base salary for most of their squads, given how the individuals have performed. Simple: Clubs must spend 95% of the cap every year. You're right. There would be scant few in those clubs who deserve the wages that they are on, but the cap dictates that they must be paid it. It's another negative aspect of the cap. There shouldn't be a minimum on cap spend. It's providing an inflated and inaccurate value of the player market.
Tufanooo
Roar Rookie
The Panthers are the exception because they occupy the most massive demographically favourable feeder zone. No other club can compete with that.
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
I might have mentioned this once or twice before, but the obvious consequences of scrapping the U/20's comp (in this case a greater disparity between teams as development pathways become more difficult to evaluate) weren't given enough consideration at the time. Other factors involved, of course, but for mine that decision was a biggie. But then again I'm just a mug with a keyboard, what would I know?