Is this knockout-round qualifying match between Ireland and New Zealand simply too close to call?
A lot of predictions have been made. Predictions to suit everyone’s emotions and beliefs for the Group A and Group B quarterfinals. Some people say Ireland will choke, as they have never made it past the QFs. But this sort of ‘history’ only matters if you’re a player and you let it. And if you let it matter it can work both ways – it can be a motivator or a source of arrogance or weakness. (But really, do you think anyone in the Irish team is thinking ‘well, we’ve never made it out of the QFs so that’s going to make it harder to win?’)
Meanwhile for the All Blacks, it’s a question of who shows up ready for match day 23; Who is in peak condition physically, mentally, and emotionally on the day?
There are many interrelated factors that will influence this match, like an All Blacks forward pack playing like possessed beasts for 80 minutes, for example, but one of the biggest factors that will determine the final outcome will be the effectiveness of the New Zealand bench. Specifically, the backs. The right combination of backs coming off the bench will be the difference-maker.
The All Black matchday 23 is unlikely to have few, if any, surprises. I’m assuming it will be a 5-3 split, with the necessity to recharge the pack with five forwards. That leaves three spots. I’m thinking the three back bums on the bench will be 3 of these 4 players: Damian McKenzie, Anton Leinert-Brown, Leicester Fainga’anuku, and Cam Roigard.
It’s hard to believe Foster and co will not select Roigard. The Irish will have analysed his play plenty of times, but that’s not the same as actually playing him, and Jamison Gibson-Park, Connor Murray and the Irish loose forwards will find him challenging.
The same can be said about McKenzie, who the Irish did not play in the 2021 series in NZ or the 2019 match in Dublin. They will have a strategy to combat the electrifying McKenzie, but he is a game changer and can make something from nothing. Plus, he’s in top form.
Damian McKenzie of New Zealand is tackled by Gaston Mieres of Uruguay during the Rugby World Cup France 2023 match between New Zealand and Uruguay at Parc Olympique on October 05, 2023 in Lyon, France. (Photo by Paul Harding/Getty Images)
I’d be happy to see either Lienert-Brown or Fainga’anuku as the third back-bencher. Lienert-Brown has significantly more experience when compared to Fainga’anuku, with close to 70 Test appearances since 2016. He has 2019 World Cup experience, is in great form, and can provide flexibility and stability in the backline. Fainga’anuku has been in awesome form all season, is a powerful runner, gets stuck-in like a forward, is highly capable of turn-overs, and, quite simply, extremely hard to take down – which often requires several opposing players to stop him – and in the process he creates space for his teammates.
If required to choose one over the other, Foster should opt for ALB, because of his ability to play either mid-field position and his stronger defensive play compared to Fainga’anuku’s. Ireland would put a lot of pressure on less-experienced Fainga’anuku (as he has shown some cracks in his defensive work), and ALB has teamed up with McKenzie in dozens of matches for the Waikato Chiefs and the All Blacks. Coupled with his stability, the match-day ‘connection’ with McKenzie will be pivotal in breaking the Irish defence and enable the likes of Telea, Jordan and McKenzie to unleash their X-factors skills.
All that said, part of me would also like to see Fainga’anuku come on for Rieko Ioane – possibly moving Ioane over to wing, but it is too late now to be messing with combinations.
If there are not true “impact” players coming on from the All Blacks bench, the Ireland team will simply be too good to let a lead slip away over the final quarter. But the free, somewhat unpredictable, running by the bench backs – played at pace – will be the critical, necessary difference between the teams. It’s what NZ does best, and in a knockout match it’s all about making hard-earned opportunities and then turning these into points on the board.
Ireland consistently play incredible, relentless, high pressure rugby for 80 minutes. But if thrown off their game (especially in the first quarter and last quarters) by fast-paced running rugby, the Irish will be thrown off their game and find themselves in uncharted waters. How will they cope in the final twenty minutes? Could this be the time they start to doubt themselves because history makes a rude and inconvenient appearance in their heads? That’s what the All Blacks will have to create.
That scenario will be fascinating to watch. And it may be the best chance for the All Blacks to get through to the semifinals.
But if that kind of bench is not selected, then New Zealand is destined to finish the match as the losing side, and the Foster era, will finish with the same lessons still not learned, even after four years.
Bluffboy
Roar Rookie
Your guess was spot on :silly:
Sci
Roar Rookie
Panic choices.
WEST
Roar Guru
Heard Roigard might of been involved with Telea, Foster didn’t exactly say he was.. but I’ve heard Roigard was involved. Can’t explain why you leave out the teams best wing or Roigard.. think back to 2011 RWC the Cory Jane and Dagg incident.. Jane still played and had one of his best tests.
WEST
Roar Guru
We need to turn the tables on Ireland. Despite what people say.. they are confident, they know when it’s broken down, they have it over us. We need to put it to them! Under the pump, force Ireland to start pushing their own discipline. Enough pressure they’ll break. That goes both ways. But It’s up to us to pressure their system, not many teams are capable of breaking Irish structure down, because of their composure and discipline. But everyone is susceptible to making mistakes when enough pressure is applied. The back three need to be prepared for anything and have a go at attacking Ireland, they would of observed us kicking a lot.. We need to now attack with ball in hand, but when we do kick it has to be accurate and be effective. We need far more opportunities to regather our kicks. Again it all comes back to our pack dominating. Our forwards aren’t regarded as a force to be reckoned with. That assumption has to change today.
Mal
Roar Rookie
BB needs a HUGE game. Less wayward kicking and more linking up with his wings. Let Richie be the playmaker. Not one for predictions … but … I think Ireland will kick more than usual - to put pressure on the ABs back 3. They’ll gain territory, as well as potentially receiving easy ball kicked back by BB. Hopefully the coaches and BB have already discussed this.
Mal
Roar Rookie
My best guess is Christie is there for his defensive abilities - and may only come on if Smith is injured or reduced to crawling.
Mal
Roar Rookie
Agree. Also, when you have powerful and/ elusive wings and centre they need to come into the back line early and run different lines, create the overlaps and so on. Opportunities will also open up on the blindside as Ireland hesitate with its defensive play. NZ needs to play to its strength and not be so predictable.
Mal
Roar Rookie
Agree, and vary the attack and kick intelligently.
Mal
Roar Rookie
Given the line up maybe Whitelock comes on and Barrett shifts to #6. - and Cane only replaced if injured.
Mal
Roar Rookie
Hope to be proven wrong with Christie being selected over Roigard. If NZ are able to put a lot of points on the board early on, then sure, Christie may work well later, if he even comes on. My guess is that he may only come on if he has to due to Smith getting injured.
Muzzo
Roar Rookie
Great assessment WEST & you've explained everything so well. In agreeance in regards to the NH not wanting either the AB's or the Bokke, not being there, as in truth they have never won a RWC in the NH. Their one & only achievement of successfully winning the RWC was at Homebush, in Sydney in 03. So obviously, we've noticed quite a few issues over this tournament, kinda referring to a ' Not Welcome ' mat, at a doorway. To even consider having a Pom management team adjudicating this game does make some more than wary of what could, & possibly will happen. TBH the ruling body, World Rugby, has created a few issues over this tournament due to it's known incompetence. Anyway, GO THE AB'S!!!
Diesel
Roar Rookie
Idiot Foster selects Christie. Must be wanting this to be his final game in charge huh!
Die hard
Roar Rookie
Agree much but think you might be surprised at the pack a I think them hard and fast and powerful. The SA belting was against a jet lagged 7 man pack with also Lomax off at 10 min. France wasnt pretty but still not beaten there in the pack. This WC and the Irish have not seen Lomax Taylor DeGroot front row. Retalick and Whitelock have always fronted and Frizel lets Cane and Ardie do thier jobs better. The Irish lost 8 lineouts against the Boks and struggled up front. If we get front foot ball and only kick to the corners not midfield to feed them ball we might belt them again.
OldBuzzard
Roar Rookie
Great call to put Jordan at 15 from the start. Have BB on the bench…Leicester and Talea on the wings, Jordy and Reiko 12 and 13… pace and power, outside Smith and Richie. Boom!
4 of 6
Roar Rookie
If Foster wants to win, he needs to start EB and Papali’i on the bench . Ardie needs to play open side on defence and no 8 on attack. Roigard, ALB and Faingaanuku on the bench. If Telea is injured Faingaanuku starts and D Mac goes onto the bench. Knowing Foster , he will select Cane .
donmcdazzle
Roar Rookie
I think Jacko said this on another article - wonder if the ABs load up the shortside attack at times. We did it against Aus pretty well, and in the odd occasion we have used a pick and go style (Lions in 2017, Wales last year, France a couple years ago) it has worked very well. I think those 2 approaches will to some degree neuter Ireland's defensive structure of fanning out (and having Ringrose rush up). If we force them to commit tighter and get them on the back foot, might open up spaces wider. If we try sling it wide early on, Ireland will love that. Agee as well that territory, discipline and scoreboard pressure will be the key.
Sunny
Roar Rookie
I'd go all Kamikaze and start with the best 15 that can take IRL out of their comfort zone. Start Roigard, Ethan, LF. Put Will to FB, leave BB out. Put Cane, Smith and Whitelock on the bench. We can't beat them going sideways, their defence is too well organised. Play them through the middle. Roigard will force their A defenders around the ruck to hold, meaning they can't fan out like they usually do. This will allow our big boppers to run at weak shoulders. Make their forwards tackle, run at Sexton and bury him in the ground as much as possible. Wear them down from the get go. Bring on Cane, Whitlock, Smith, DMac etc to finish them off.
Riccardo
Roar Rookie
Given our bench has been costly in those losses this year, this is a really good question. We'll know more tomorrow morning but I can't see too much wrong with the article and comments above. I'm wondering if they start Dalton actually and Sam is bench cover; I too would prefer Blackadder as he covers 6 & 8 and we've got 2 open-sides, whoever starts. de Groot is back and if Lomax pulls thru his remaining I'd like to see them start, withn Ofa and Newell on the bench. Brodie or Sam will cover lock as the other will start with Scooter. Roigard is a lock as is McKenzie, so it's likely to be Leceister v Anton for the other spot; I expect they will go with Anton for the experience value. The keys to this gig: 1) composure and discipline - they go hand-n-hand and are vital as Barnes can be pedantic. 2) Set-piece parity is a must. 8/9/10/12 need some space to create, or run set-plays. 3) break-down - possibly the most important given this is where Ireland are so very good. Fast support, especially wider, is a must. 4) carrying on from 1 - pace and accuracy. Composure and patience means opportunities will come and we have to take them. 5) leadership - be smart, take the points, create score-board pressure. 6) defense - no way around it. Make your 1st up tackles becasue Ireland do. 7) a smart and well-supported kicking game...
Ouch
Roar Rookie
not only nil pressure, the Kiwi's know how to win. they have a winning mentality, not just in rugby. ditto South Africa. i reckon the occasion will be too much for Ireland.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Yeah I just think if its genuinely felt we would need our bench to reply to a lead then change the starting side. So therefore the line becomes a throwaway one. I think Ireland will be under massive pressure. I read where they have been having help for 4 years on how to deal with this exact situation. That tells me they have it in their heads. It is great to see Ireland, Sa and France as the main talking points this week. ABs under the radar for sure. Yes we need to play our game and attack from the back. Get a lead then let them know about it. Get inside their heads a bit.