Alright, let’s cut to the chase. Betteridge’s Law of Headlines, an old media adage, goes as follows: “Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no.”
Ricky Stuart is going nowhere at the Raiders unless he wants to. At the age of 56 with close to 500 games of first grade in the hot seat – half of them with Canberra – we can safely declare his a job for life.
In the normal world, coaches are judged on performances and results – note, they are not the same – with the upshot that one of two things has to be happening to avoid pressure.
Either the team has to be winning, because winning solves everything, or they have to be giving the impression that they are going somewhere.
The second part is a little more nebulous and subjective, but in general, fans are willing to persist and forgive if the team are playing well but being unlucky, have a lot of young players that they can believe in, are smashed by injuries, get dudded by refs or are, at least, putting on a show with their style of play.
Sticky doesn’t live in the normal world, he lives in Canberra, so these things don’t really apply to him. Fans will persist with Ricky Stuart because he is Ricky Stuart and has so many runs on the board, hero as player and coach, and they’ll believe that he can turn it around because it’s him.
Moreover, after a decade in charge, it’s hard to imagine anyone else doing the job. Trent Robinson, Craig Bellamy and Ivan Cleary inhabit this same rarefied air where they could lose every single game in 2024 and likely not get sacked.
Canberra won’t lose every match, either, but they’re currently third favourites for the wooden spoon in 2024 and, as much as one can decide these things before a ball has been kicked, it’s easy to understand why.
They’ve lost Jack Wighton, at least nominally their best player, and haven’t replaced him at all. That’s purposeful, of course, with a crop of youngsters coming through that are going to need gametime if they are to do anything.
If we refer back to the list of reasons that fans forgive defeats, blooding young players is certainly one of them and, if Ethan Strange or Kaeo Weekes (or both, given the ongoing issues at fullback) then plenty of slack will follow from supporters.
However, Ricky’s confidence in young players has been thin of late, especially in key positions.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
He already had what many thought was the next big thing in Xavier Savage, but lost faith in him after a few bad showings and ended up repurposing a centre, Seb Kris, and a winger, Jordan Rapana, at fullback.
Strange got one game last year and was never seen again after Melbourne put 48 points on Canberra. If he or Weekes, who Manly didn’t trust to play fullback despite having multiple injuries in the position, don’t start well, then what happens next?
There’s a much wider question that might begin to arise should Stuart’s 2024 not go well.
There is a clear generational change in the works, both at Canberra and in the NRL coaching ranks, and it might present the board with a question or two about where they fit into the new world.
On the roster front, the club are in the midst of a major turnover of the 2019 Grand Final team, with Wighton, Josh Hodgson and Jarrod Croker already gone and Rapana, Elliott Whitehead and Josh Papali’i in the twilight of their careers.
Fans know that, and will probably accept a team that doesn’t make finals if it brings through the next great Canberra side.
In the coaches’ box, however things might be different. It seems strange to mention the physical box with Stuart as he is the only coach who doesn’t always use his, and that perhaps tells a story.
Since the Six Again era began in 2020, 11 of the 16 NRL clubs have changed their coaches, and while some those who are not there are now elsewhere within the league, there has been a revolution in what coaching means.
Newcomers like Andrew Webster, Craig Fitzgibbon and Jason Demetriou have joined the likes of Cleary and Robinson as highly ideological, tactically consistent coaches – the sort where you can be very confident in their style of play and the patterns they will use week to week.
Stuart, Bellamy and Wayne Bennett are the holdouts of the type of coach who predominated before, where individual gameplans were mixed with a more man-management heavy style that trusted the players to get the job done.
Sticky is unlike the other two in that he has plenty of scope within him to move with the times, being eight years younger than Bellamy and 15 years younger than Bennett, but has shown little inclination to do so.
When they were his age, those two adapted to include their assistants more, allowing the coaching staff in general to be more modern while maintaining what they did best.
(Photo by George Wood/Getty Images for RLWC)
Ricky did that to some extent with Michael Maguire last year – though Madge is a coach much in the same mould – and would do well to bring in assistance from someone like a Jason Demetriou, who did that for Bennett at Souths, to offer that perspective.
It’s not as if Sticky doesn’t know this. His career longevity has been based around knowing what he doesn’t know and soliciting the right advice.
The decision to add Maguire last year was a masterstroke and it was no surprise that the Raiders won so many tight games.
If anything, it went too well and now he has to find another voice to add to the conversation with Madge taking the NSW job.
Maguire’s replacement will be Justin Giteau, the NSW Cup boss from 2023, who has attacking chops in the second grade, and is a career coach who never played first grade. That was once a death sentence, but in the modern NRL, tends to act more as a recommendation.
What the Raiders were best at last year was bringing everyone down to their level. They negated every opponent’s strength as best they could, with the effect that most of their wins were grinding, quite boring games – not that Sticky would give a stuff about that.
(Photo by Jeremy Ng/Getty Images)
The issue might be that his style as it has been of late wins no friends – see our rules of coaching above – and really doesn’t require much to go wrong for tight wins to become tight defeats.
In 2023, Canberra snuck in on the last weekend despite losing – and that was in a year where Souths and Parramatta completely imploded, Manly lost players to injury and the Cowboys never got going.
Raiders fans are generally more concerned about the defence, which was as bad as the famously tackle-shy Titans in terms of tries conceded, but plenty of that was due to other teams running up the score when Canberra’s style didn’t work.
Look at less volatile metrics, like line breaks or run metres conceded and they’re about where they should have been given the league position.
What might be more concerning is that their attack was almost totally dependent on Jamal Fogarty’s boot or one of Wighton or Matt Timoko doing something exceptional.
Wighton is now gone, so that avenue is out, and while Fogarty is an exceptional short kicker, that method in general is highly unsustainable. You can’t expect 20% of your tries to come from kicks, and your centre can’t do everything.
Canberra were already 14th of 17 for tries scored, joint last for line breaks and dead last for passes thrown. Up the guts, let Jamal kick it worked for a bit last year, but if he were to go down injured or simply get fewer good bounces, it would be a recipe for disaster.
At a time when more and more teams approach attack with a highly systematised approach, the Raiders will stand out like a sore thumb if they stick to the same plan as 2023. When it’s the plan that’s the problem, the fingers get pointed at the coach, whoever that is.
It has already been speculated in these pages that no coach will be sacked in 2024, and it’s a convincing argument given the way the 17 teams are set.
Canberra haven’t finished last since their inaugural year in 1982, and the lowest they have finished under Sticky was his first year, 2014, when they recorded just eight wins.
If they ran worse than that in 2024, there will be murmurings this time next year.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Every man and his dog will be after AFB… hopefully Gus will have something up his sleeve Wishing you and yours a merry xmas too mate!
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Yeah - all good. Looking forward to a bit of a break around Xmas. Not far off hanging up the boots myself in terms of retirement from work. Maybe push through for another year and assess it then. Bit like Elliot Whitehead. Sounds as though he's going to settle in Canberra. Likes the laid back lifestyle here - as do I. Will be really interesting to see how the Dogs go - and my Raiders of course. Think there might be a bit of movement in positions 5 to 12 on the ladder in 2024 given the 3 teams who missed out on the 8 last year. Should be a really competitive season with new coaches at the Dragons and Tigers as well. Surprised the Dogs haven't been able to land a few forwards. We are chock a block with them but lacking a couple of quality back rowers. You'd think Gus would be ale to find something. I wonder if blokes like Gus read the Roar. You might be in the market for AFB from the Warriors in 2025 - if you can afford him! I was impressed with Preston last season. And you did well getting Curran. I was hoping the Raiders would make a play for him. Have a good Xmas.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I’ve been well mate. You? Obviously excited by guys like Critta, Xerri, Curran and Taaffe but the utility-a-thon leaves me cold. Signing a whole bunch of players who are handy but probably fill rosters positions 18-22 at other clubs doesn’t seem a recipe for success. I guess if they’re in those spots for us, we’re stronger than they were, but if guys like Mann and Hutchison are seriously challenging for top 17 spots, it can’t be good Kikau almost feels like a new signing given how little footy he played last year. Can’t wait to see how Jacob Preston backs up But we need props. King and Knight look like being our starting props. They’re both workers and solid players, but too small and get dominated in the middle on both sides of the ball. If they’re three and four in your front row rotation, that’s fine. But not at one and two I bumped into Phil Gould at Canterbury races a couple of weeks ago. He was actually pretty nice and didn’t mind having a (very) quick chat. As we parted ways I said “Gus, we need some props, mate” his reply was “I’m working on it”
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
How have you been Baz? Excited by the new Bulldogs recruits- particularly all the utilities? Gus Gould is certainly leaving his mark on the tea. Massive turnover. Couldn't understand why Averillo was let go. He looked like one of your strike weapons. And what is happening with your captain Faitala-Mariner? Seems to be on the nose with Gus. Do you rate him?
The Barry
Roar Guru
I wouldn’t have thought the Raiders are genuine spoon contenders. They’d be in the range of 7-14 depending on how things go with injuries, etc Interested to see how Stuart used Timoko… gun player but maybe not utilised the best for the raiders Pros: big tough mobile pack Cons: some question marks over a couple of spine positions which isn’t always a great way to start a season
Dionysus
Roar Rookie
I thought that before Canberra hired him..... Heck, I thought that when he left Cronulla.
Morshead
Roar Rookie
Simi Sasagi might also be an option at 6. He looked good coming through for the knights but then fell out of favour I guess.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Surely not Kris back to full back. Can't see him developing there. He's a centre. So its between Chevy Stewart and Xavier Savage for full back and between Kaeo Weekes and Ethan Strange for 5/8 for mine.
aerial lizard
Roar Rookie
Yep, no argument, you'd think if the Raiders punt him next stop is the Queanbeyan third grade team.
Dionysus
Roar Rookie
"What has Sticky done as a coach to be considered unsackable?" What has Sticky done as a coach to be considered employable?
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
The Raiders forward pack is one of the strongest in the League and only gets better with the addition of Smithies from the UK. And impressive youngsters like Mariota and Mooney coming through. The back row is a bit of a concern with really only Hudson Young, Elliot Whitehead and CHN to choose from. This is one area where they need more depth. Particularly if CHN has to call it a day on medical grounds. They wanted David Fifita but he knocked them back - twice! As we are all aware its the quality of the spine which raises the most uncertainty. Jamaal Fogarty is a solid 7 - particularly with his kicking game - and they have some depth in the hooker rotation with Woolford, Starling and Levi. They aren't of the quality of Josh Hodgson at his peak but all bring something to the table. And young Trevilyan may be better than all of them. Its the full back and 6 positions that are the most intriguing. Many are saying the Raiders chances for 2024 were done with Jack Wighton leaving but I think it could create opportunities. They have a number of players competing for these positions in Strange, Weekes, Stewart and Savage. And while they are inexperienced seeing some new faces in these positions is exciting - and scary at the same time. For mine Jack checked out mentally mid season in 2023 which showed in his performances. Perhaps he'd already decided he was going. Jack wasn't even rated in the top 10 Raiders players in Raiders supporters voting for player of the year - which is indicative of how poor his form was. No doubt Ricky's fate will rest on how well the youngsters go in 2024. They clawed their way to the near the bottom of the 8 in 2022 and 2023 after being 4th or 5th in 2019 and 2020. If it all goes pear shaped and they finish bottom he should answer for the performance - but there is every chance they will finish near the bottom of the 8 again. Is that sufficient to keep his job? Probably.
Bill
Roar Rookie
Raiders board must be watching other clubs cycle through coaches every few years with much worse performances than the Raiders and be thinking the grass might actually be greener in Canberra?
Bernie
Roar Rookie
am i right in thinking that D.Furner is the only coach the Raiders have ever sacked? maybe Sticky thinks he's pretty safe .....
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Spot on.
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
I'm guessing the Board has accepted the position that mediocrity for the Raiders is okay under Ricky. Yes they've had the odd good season, but by & large, have hardly troubled the scorers when it comes to winning premierships, over the past 10 years or so. This is also why winning a wooden spoon wouldn't mean an automatic coaching change. Stuart's got an excuse/reason for every bad thing that happens to teams he coaches, but strangely none seem to involve him. Raiders supporters should be demanding better, given their last premiership was 30 years ago, but while the coach & Board are in the relationship they appear to have, that might be a wasted effort.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
I dunno if it's all doom and gloom for the green. Still got that strong pack with some new faces starting to make marks, Puru, Mariota, Smithies. Ricky just has to trial his young blokes as serious candidates Chevy S. at the back and Ethan S. at 6. Far from premiers but battling for 8 with the rest of us.
andrew
Roar Rookie
Having Bellamy miked up would be like listening to Gordon Ramsay, only Craig would be more entertaining. Something tells me ch 9 wouldn't like the idea. Imagine Bellamy in the middle of a rant and a ch 9 commentator's head appears on the big screen, I'd like to hear that.
Randy
Roar Rookie
Wighton isn’t a big loss, he was simply dreadful last season. He wasn’t much better in 2022 either… As a Raiders fan I expect to see Kris or Rapana back to fullback and someone like Hudson Young or *gulp* Whitehead shifted to 5/8 after the first few rounds cause Stuart has so little creativity and patience. So yeah the spoon is very much a reality…
aerial lizard
Roar Rookie
What has Sticky done as a coach to be considered unsackable? I put in him in the same company as Arthur and Robbo (sans Cronk), a couple of notches above Griffin and Jason Taylor, and well below Bellamy and Bennett. I think that Canberra have missed the window and won't see premiership success without a major rebuild, coach and all.
Maxtruck
Roar Rookie
Now that Toovey is out of the picture Raiders pressers are the only ones worth watching. Mabey instead of the refs being miked up perhaps the coaches ? I would love to hear the live feed from the Storm coaches box